进击选手

Yesterday, I wrapped up three scenarios for going short. Today, I’ll summarize the conditions for going long. The difficulty of going long is significantly higher than that of going short, but the profits from going long can be much greater, and the failure rate for long positions is far higher than that for shorts.
First, let’s talk about the classic long scenario: a pattern where after a huge spike and a drop, there's another surge. The key characteristic is that the previous rally reaches a high point, and then a big bearish candle wipes out all the gains. Typically, after this sharp drop, the next day we see a massive spike up, followed by a stair-step pattern that continues to rise back to the previous highs, and then a crazy bull run starts with a pullback of over 20 points.
The second long pattern involves analyzing the price action and trading volume. A coin needs to have a price increase of over 100%, with trading volume of at least $200 million for it to have the potential to become a moonshot coin. The candlesticks are generally very strong, only retracing to the 15-minute or 1-hour moving averages. Recent examples like STO and RAVE have shown such patterns.
There are many other scenarios as well, such as arc bottom breakouts, pin bar breakouts, and unlock breakouts. The classic examples of arc bottom breakouts include FHE, BULLA, and even PIPPIN.
Pin bar breakouts refer to the river siren pattern where the daily pin bar dips below the moving average and then surges instantly, usually resulting in a doubling trend. This even includes ARIA as a pin bar breakout.
Unlock breakouts mean that after a coin unlocks, it crashes on the first day, and then on the second day, it regains all the lost ground, as seen with MYX and SOON BEAT, among others.

Chillin' and summarizing three situations for shorting. The first scenario is quite common: when the hourly and 15-minute charts show a spike upwards, in the past, you could mindlessly short on such spikes with a success rate hitting around 90%. But lately, the whales have switched things up; they’ve figured out the spike-and-short trick, and often these huge spikes continue to rise. So, when you see a spike over 50 points, you can short with a light position, but if it doesn't drop, just cut your losses.
The second scenario is shorting with a -2 fee rate. The likelihood of successfully shorting these coins is still pretty high, as long as you can withstand the initial high fees. You can rake in profits from the shorts, but the downside is that the drop you can capitalize on might be similar to the fees you pay. Overall, you’ve got about an 80% chance of covering the losses from the fees.
The third scenario boasts a 100% success rate for shorting, characterized by the futures price being significantly lower than the spot price. The condition is that the difference between the futures and the spot price exceeds 30%. The success rate can hit 100% because this price gap results from the whales dumping huge short positions. When the whales start shorting, it’s a sign they’re either preparing to or are already unloading.

Going long on M and Dexe plays on human psychology. One has a market cap of 1 billion, while the other sits at 10 billion. When everyone thinks it can't pump any further, that's when it actually continues to surge. The underlying logic of altcoin rallies is still about squeezing shorts. In the end, it's all a psychological battle; your mindset determines everything!

Currently, there are a few coins worth referencing. One is gua. This coin has a long-short ratio where the short position exceeds the long, but the rate is a positive 0.3%. A reasonable explanation is that the whales have opened a large number of long positions, and the trading volume has also increased. Previously, the trading volume was only a few million, so entering at this position could be quite awkward.
based this coin is also brewing. There are relatively few coins that go up after such a significant drop; recently, only power has gone up. The upward momentum for based isn't very strong. There's a high probability it will slightly rebound like on and then collapse, but it's not impossible for it to rise, with about a 10% chance.

The live trading has been closed. A few brothers specifically added the group to ask me why it was closed, because the upcoming market will be very difficult to trade. I will frequently hit stop losses. In light of the strong requests from the brothers to reopen, I will keep it open! However, do not follow all the trades; just use it as a reference!

The plunge of RAVE originates from Zach's whistleblower letter, followed by the exchange launching an investigation. A coin skyrocketing by 100 times is surprisingly still under investigation, while other coins that have plummeted hundreds or thousands of times go unnoticed. This is truly unheard of. This wave of altcoin market ends here; who would dare to pump in the future? Once you pump, there is an investigation. The biggest fear in the crypto world is the absence of volatility; without volatility, this market is truly finished.

Currently, there are two leading players in the market: one is Rave and the other is Binance Life. In essence, both of these coins are considered to be manipulated coins. Although Binance Life is a meme coin, it also has manipulation. Other coins have little opportunity to perform in comparison, as the short sellers in this market have been absorbed by these two coins. The next god coin is expected to appear after Rave collapses. When will Rave crash? I believe it will happen after all the short sellers have been squeezed out. There are two ways for Rave to unload: one is to move sideways at a high position with high fees for unloading, and the other is to learn from Siren and explode to squeeze the short sellers. For now, it is still unclear which method will be taken, but it is definitely not far from a major collapse.

A historic moment, the ancient demon god MYX, COAI, and the newly risen demon god RAVE gather on the rise list

Reviewing the RAVE entry three times, tripling each time, earning 12000u in the process
The first entry into RAVE was around 1u on the night of April 9th when RAVE surged from 0.3u to 0.8u very strongly, only returning to the 15-minute moving average, not even retracing to the 1-hour moving average. The initiation process was stronger than that of STO, as STO at least returned to the 1-hour moving average before its launch. The next morning, I found RAVE had risen to around 1u, and I felt I could not wait any longer, so I entered directly. When it rose to 2u, RAVE began to consolidate, during which it fell below 2u to around 1.5 many times. Learning from AIRA where I earned 8000u but did not take profits, I took profits around 1.9u to secure gains, though I kept a bottom position to observe the situation. Subsequently, RAVE broke through the consolidation zone of 2u, and I added to my position, which was the second entry to go long, with an average price of around 2.2u. Around 1 AM today, RAVE rose to around 4u, and the fee rate changed to -2, which typically indicates that the market maker is offloading. Therefore, I chose to take profits again at 4u. After waiting for an hour for the fee rate to settle, I discovered that RAVE did not show any signs of falling, not even breaking the 15-minute line. I entered again, marking this as the third entry, with an average price around 4u. The current price is already 8u, with a market value of about 2 billion dollars. I feel it has basically peaked, and while it may rise further, the probability is low, representing a tail-end market. Today, I was waiting for the hourly line to show an increase of over 50 points, which is also one of the indicators for market maker offloading, but I did not wait long enough, so I simply took profits!

The third time entering to buy RAVE, the previous two times doubled, how much can it reach this time?

RAVE I first leveled it, making a small profit and leaving part of the bottom position. Last time, aria had a maximum profit of 9000u and I didn't exit. This time, I learned from the experience. You ask if RAVE has the potential to rise again; I believe it is possible. The most important point is the extreme long-short ratio, with short sellers reaching 8 to 2, which is quite exaggerated. The last coin like this was Siren. Siren accumulated for three days during its rise and then started to surge, squeezing the shorts. Now RAVE is also oscillating around 2u, and it is very likely accumulating to squeeze the shorts, so I kept a bottom position and am quietly waiting for changes.

ARIA only earned 1000u in capital fees review ARIA this wave made a long position with a maximum floating profit of 6000u Today suddenly exploded and directly stopped loss ARIA's previous trend is very similar to siren I wanted to bet that ARIA could also have a main rising wave level surge like siren in the end, but what came was indeed a crash, I think the main reason is that in this wave of ARIA's rise, there were still too few short sellers, the long-short ratio at most was just 60-40, without enough short fuel, it couldn't rise that much, and couldn't produce a main rising wave, having gone through siren and sto the short army has been severely beaten, I think the next time a coin with a main upgrade level surge appears, it will take a while, now the traders in the market have almost been cut or have learned to be smart,
this time's lessons and experiences are that for coins with a long-short ratio not that exaggerated, doubling should take profit or at least return the cost, this way you can lock in profits.
As for whether ARIA can still be operated, I suggest it can hardly be played at all, generally coins after selling goods will have endless fluctuations, losing regularity, if ARIA can pull to 0.7 then it can be long, otherwise, just watching is fine.

Just have some fun with copy trading. Those who like micro-management should not follow.

Reviewing the process of making 12000u with STO. Before this coin's surge, it had a huge spike down on April 1st at 1 AM. After the spike, it started soaring. I didn't notice the STO spike that morning; if I had, the profits could have been even greater. By noon the next day, STO rose to 0.24 and made it to the gainers list, with an increase of 100%. I thought there was a high probability that STO would continue to rise. I waited for an opportunity to return to the 4-hour or 1-hour moving averages, but STO was extremely strong and only returned to the 15-minute line. I wouldn’t enter at the 15-minute line. STO then surged to around 0.4. At 1 AM today, STO returned to the 1-hour moving average, and immediately shot up. I thought this STO was something special. This kind of strong performance rivals the ancient meme coin MYX and is even stronger than recent coins like POWER and SIREN. So I stayed up all night waiting for an opportunity to enter. At 4 AM, STO returned to the 1-hour moving average again, and this time I didn’t hesitate; I jumped in directly.
Why have I been able to hold on for so long, with such huge gains? Because these meme coins have recently shown massive increases, providing plenty of fuel for shorting, and these coins are not being dumped all at once, which gives me the confidence to hold. When to exit? Typically, after a 50-point increase on the hourly line, it’s time to take profits. So when I saw the spike up to 1.8u and it didn’t continue rising, I took my profits.

The latest features of the demon coin power and siren, inserting a huge needle now will not result in shipment. It will continue to rise, and this is also the reason for my recent losses in shorting. In the past, when the controlling coin inserted a huge needle, it would directly ship. Now the strategy has completely changed. In the future, it will be increasingly difficult to short the controlling coin when it ships, while the advantages of going long will grow larger because the insertion of needles does not result in shipments, allowing ample time for going long to close positions. Every opportunity to go long must be seized in the future.

Every period of trading will encounter a bottleneck, even leading to losses for 10 days in a row or losing dozens of trades.
Since missing the power long position last time, things have not been going smoothly. It's a pity for the power long position, which perfectly aligns with the strategy of breakout for the庄币. If I had held on to the 0.5 entry, I could at least have made a profit of double the increase, but before the power coin surged and broke out, it had three wicks up and down. This really tests a person's mindset, so to truly capture this doubling long position, one needs to hold on through three entries, with the third entry at 0.5 to be able to reap the rewards. Thus, this really tests a person's mindset.
Recently, a small market trend has shown several coins with very good patterns. One is resolv and another is aria, both perfectly breaking out of the rounded bottom pattern. I have said not to give up any opportunity to go long, but unfortunately, both of these coins failed to break out. Other coins that have skyrocketed, such as dego, pixel, and several others, have seen their increases happen randomly, without any matching strategies or good entry points. These coins are impossible to capture.
The coin lyn can be said to have been completely missed, and then I was too eager to chase the short, with poor entry points, leading to frequent stop losses. The consequence of frequent stop losses is significant losses, which mess up the mindset. The coin lyn really cannot be touched anymore; touching it again would just be reckless trading, leading to consecutive losses.

Today was a wasted effort. The low position long order for power at 0.35 was not filled, what a pity. The power coin won't end that quickly, and there are still a large number of short sellers. The essence of a coin's rise lies in forcing short positions. As long as there are people shorting, it won't drop.

POWER's recent surge did not manage to break new highs. I went long with about 20,000 USD, betting it could break new highs like bananas31 and multiply several times. Suddenly, around 0.43 USD, the fee turned negative, and the market maker went short at this position. The fee has now reached its maximum, and it will definitely turn into an hourly collection. Often, when the fee turns to -2, it's a sign of a temporary peak. Those who want to go long and eat the POWER fee may find themselves losing out. Currently, looking at the trend, POWER should follow CLO. Going long can earn fees but will incur losses, while going short can earn from declines but will also incur fees. Neither going long nor short will earn significant money. According to CLO, going short can make money, but only a few points, and the risk of incurring fees is high. Trading this coin like POWER is becoming difficult, and it might be best to give up on this coin.

The recent drop of PIPPIN has been too difficult to handle. There have been countless short positions on rebounds, and countless long positions on false signals. Both shorting and longing are nerve-wracking experiences. Today, I was originally set to profit around 3000u from shorting, but then a 30-point rebound hit in the evening, wiping out my profits and triggering a stop loss. I thought we were about to see a V-shaped recovery to go long, but I got stopped out again, so there's really no way to trade. I need to stay away from this coin.

POWER belongs to a high-level sideways fluctuation trend, shorting will get pinned, going long will lead to a sharp drop and being stuck with the stock, it's hard to make money whether going long or short. CLO belongs to the same type of cryptocurrency as POWER, and once it breaks the historical high, it starts to fluctuate. However, CLO's selling follows a trend of gradual decline to zero, while POWER follows a trend of sharp drop and selling. Pursuing shorting with POWER can still earn a little, but pursuing shorting with CLO is very difficult.