🕳️ US stocks hitting new highs daily, while BTC keeps hitting new lows, yet I'm feeling pretty chill.
Today is May 29, 2026.
I opened my phone for a quick glance: BTC $73,618, BNB $637. BTC has dropped over 10% from its early May high of $82,270. The Fear and Greed Index is at 23, extreme fear, just like yesterday, flat on the floor.
Then I switched to the US stock market—S&P 500 just set a new all-time high the day before yesterday, and Nasdaq is on its way to new highs as well. Micron has crossed a trillion, TSMC is raising prices by 15% for 3nm, and Meta is climbing. Money in AI and semiconductors is rolling.
Same planet, two parallel universes.
If you only look at coin prices, you'd think it's the end of the world. If you only look at US stocks, you'd think it's the best of times.
So here’s the question—has crypto really tanked, or is crypto just temporarily pushed off the table?
I believe the latter.
PCE confirmed at 3.8%, and the probability of a Fed rate hike has risen to 60%, with rate cut expectations basically wiped out. ETFs have seen net outflows for seven consecutive days, with $528 million running out on May 27 alone, the second-largest single-day withdrawal since their inception. There's also a $1.29 billion whale selling in the dark pool, and the Coinbase premium index has dipped to -160, the lowest since February.
Wall Street is indeed selling. But someone is buying.
I don’t believe these chips will just vanish into thin air. Every time there’s a massive outflow from ETFs, historically it corresponds with large OTC trades or smart money stockpiling on-chain. Data doesn’t lie—$98.4 billion is still sitting in ETFs; net outflows are just the tip of the iceberg. It’s just turnover, not a total wipeout.
The US and Iran are still at it. Trump said he’s "not satisfied" with the framework of the agreement, and US military continues airstrikes near the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices are twitchy, geopolitical risks haven’t cleared, but the market is slowly digesting it all. What needs to blow up will blow up, what needs to drop will drop, and those who need to add to their positions are adding.
Today is the second day since CME launched 7x24 cryptocurrency futures options. Wall Street has turned the casino into a 24-hour operation. But retail traders, at a Fear and Greed Index of 23, just want to shut the door and go home.
To put it bluntly—did Wall Street spend tens of millions to fix the infrastructure just for you to run away?
$6.25 billion in options are expiring today, with the max pain point at $75,000. Those who understand, understand; those who don’t will always blame the market makers.
I entered this market in 2021, lived through LUNA’s zeroing, the FTX collapse, 3AC running away, and SVB’s bank run. Each time I thought, "this time is different," but looking back, nothing really was different.
On the 20th day of my dollar-cost averaging, I bought again today.
Not because I’m bullish. It’s because I’m thinking long-term, 30 years out.
Are you buying or selling today?
(This is not investment advice, just record-keeping, we’ll see in 30 years.)
Today is May 29, 2026.
I opened my phone for a quick glance: BTC $73,618, BNB $637. BTC has dropped over 10% from its early May high of $82,270. The Fear and Greed Index is at 23, extreme fear, just like yesterday, flat on the floor.
Then I switched to the US stock market—S&P 500 just set a new all-time high the day before yesterday, and Nasdaq is on its way to new highs as well. Micron has crossed a trillion, TSMC is raising prices by 15% for 3nm, and Meta is climbing. Money in AI and semiconductors is rolling.
Same planet, two parallel universes.
If you only look at coin prices, you'd think it's the end of the world. If you only look at US stocks, you'd think it's the best of times.
So here’s the question—has crypto really tanked, or is crypto just temporarily pushed off the table?
I believe the latter.
PCE confirmed at 3.8%, and the probability of a Fed rate hike has risen to 60%, with rate cut expectations basically wiped out. ETFs have seen net outflows for seven consecutive days, with $528 million running out on May 27 alone, the second-largest single-day withdrawal since their inception. There's also a $1.29 billion whale selling in the dark pool, and the Coinbase premium index has dipped to -160, the lowest since February.
Wall Street is indeed selling. But someone is buying.
I don’t believe these chips will just vanish into thin air. Every time there’s a massive outflow from ETFs, historically it corresponds with large OTC trades or smart money stockpiling on-chain. Data doesn’t lie—$98.4 billion is still sitting in ETFs; net outflows are just the tip of the iceberg. It’s just turnover, not a total wipeout.
The US and Iran are still at it. Trump said he’s "not satisfied" with the framework of the agreement, and US military continues airstrikes near the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices are twitchy, geopolitical risks haven’t cleared, but the market is slowly digesting it all. What needs to blow up will blow up, what needs to drop will drop, and those who need to add to their positions are adding.
Today is the second day since CME launched 7x24 cryptocurrency futures options. Wall Street has turned the casino into a 24-hour operation. But retail traders, at a Fear and Greed Index of 23, just want to shut the door and go home.
To put it bluntly—did Wall Street spend tens of millions to fix the infrastructure just for you to run away?
$6.25 billion in options are expiring today, with the max pain point at $75,000. Those who understand, understand; those who don’t will always blame the market makers.
I entered this market in 2021, lived through LUNA’s zeroing, the FTX collapse, 3AC running away, and SVB’s bank run. Each time I thought, "this time is different," but looking back, nothing really was different.
On the 20th day of my dollar-cost averaging, I bought again today.
Not because I’m bullish. It’s because I’m thinking long-term, 30 years out.
Are you buying or selling today?
(This is not investment advice, just record-keeping, we’ll see in 30 years.)