Market Recap and Outlook: Clear Signals in a Volatile Market
Today is June 10th, 9:30 AM UTC+8. The market has been in a consolidation phase lately, leaving many investors feeling lost on direction. Here, we'll thoroughly review Bitcoin, crude oil, and gold based on yesterday's analysis and dive deep into future trends.
Looking back at yesterday's predictions, we believe that Bitcoin at the $62,500 level is very crucial, acting as a key resistance and support flip point. The strategy at that time was: if the price breaks below this level, it will test $61,000 downwards; however, if it drops below $61,000, triggers long stop losses, and quickly rebounds, it presents an excellent opportunity to stack long positions gradually, with the potential to even challenge heights above the previous $64,000 mark. For those who set up short positions at $64,000, $61,000 should be seen as a take-profit target.
About oil, the previous view was to trade high and low in the $90 to $95 range, but it's crucial to strictly set stop losses when going long at lower levels, as oil is highly sensitive to macro geopolitical news.
Regarding gold, we previously believed its bullish trend was turning bearish. If the price can't break through the Vegas channel, the hourly support level is approximately around $4,373, and the overall strategy should shift to shorting.
Bitcoin market outlook: Will it consolidate upward or test the lows again?
From Bitcoin's daily chart, although there was a bearish candlestick yesterday, it left a certain lower shadow. The key point is that the recent three candlesticks did not form a classic 'evening star' topping pattern, indicating that the market still retains a chance for a continued rebound, maintaining an overall 'higher lows' upward trend.
Looking at the one-hour chart, the market experienced a panic sell-off yesterday, with prices briefly dipping below $61,000. However, this drop was accompanied by increased volume, indicating it wasn't just a simple crash but a combination of panic selling and gradual strong buying, alongside a flood of short positions. The green buying zone below effectively caught this dip, proving the support remains strong.
Regarding the upcoming trend, since the four-hour chart has not effectively closed below, this 'false breakdown' shouldn't be viewed as a shift in market structure. The current strong rebound has formed a valid pullback (around 50%) and gained structural support. The first crucial resistance level in the short term is at the 1.272 extension (around $62,600). Once this level is effectively broken, it is likely to test the previous high range; if the hourly and four-hour lows keep rising, Bitcoin has a significant chance to target the higher goal we mentioned in the title—$65,000.
Of course, we must guard against downside risks: if multiple hourly candlesticks effectively close below $61,000, the wide trading range's upper and lower boundaries will be set, and the market could further test $59,000 or even break new lows. However, we currently anticipate the market to move out of this low point and trend upwards. Even if a second bottom is inevitably reached, this will provide plenty of time for investors to prepare for bottom-fishing.
Oil and US stocks: macro geopolitical landscape and CPI test.
Oil broke through the support level last night, highlighting the critical importance of setting stop losses. The macro trigger for this crash was the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. On Monday, Israel's attack on Iran pushed oil prices up, but by early Tuesday, US political pressure demanded Israel halt its actions. Considering the mid-term elections and the capacity of the Strait of Hormuz, the geopolitical crisis eased on Tuesday, leading to a swift drop in oil prices. Although oil breaking through support indirectly benefits risk assets, we still need to keep an eye on the $85 main support in the short term. If it holds here, without sustained positive news, oil could rebound to around $90, where we can consider setting up shorts.
The easing of the geopolitical crisis did not lead to a rise in US stocks on Tuesday; the Nasdaq experienced a significant drop, with the Vegas channel's filter line putting clear pressure on the index. Currently, there's immense fear in the stock market, partly due to high valuations and extreme sensitivity to interest rate hike and cut policies; on the other hand, this is to prepare for the heavyweight CPI data to be announced tonight.
Tonight's CPI data will determine the market's short-term fate; we provide a clear predictive standard:
·If the CPI MoM exceeds 0.5%, US Treasury yields will continue to rise, and the stock market is likely to crash, making it tough for Bitcoin to hold the $61,000 support.
·If the data can fall back to around 0.3%, since the current drop has partially priced in the negative sentiment, the market is likely to see a strong rebound.
Gold's long-term logic: strategic choices amidst substantial panic.
Gold indeed plummeted as expected yesterday, with its high accurately capped near $4,370, providing perfect validation for our bearish strategy.
Currently, gold prices have reached the previously significant bearish spike position, with the market in substantial panic related to the Fed's interest rate hike expectations. Given that transitioning from theoretical rate hikes to actual implementation faces considerable challenges, coupled with the structural support here, investors should take profits on most short positions.
From a trading strategy perspective, if gold breaks key levels and shows signs of recovery with volume, investors should not blindly short; instead, they can start gradually building long positions. Don't let short-term price fluctuations shake your mindset. From a long-term macro perspective, the global geopolitical divide has become the norm, and to combat sovereign currency devaluation and potential risks in the global dollar system, gold's strategic value as a safe-haven asset and hard currency remains irreplaceable.
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