老K的比特币行情洞察
推特：@V_Blockchain，油管：老K的比特币行情洞察。
前机构衍生品交易员.8年裸K实战.1万小时链上捕手
6年拆解300项目基本面
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· 21年Filecoin崩盘,提前5个月预警.
· 24年AI赛道爆发
日更：1比特及山寨顶底 2机构大额订单流方向解密3变盘警报
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[Critical truth warning] A former institutional vulture trader's crypto survival rules
🚨I am Lao K, a user of naked K technology for 7 years, and I have witnessed how institutions cut leeks for 3 years. Now I will use the on-chain microscope to help you see through the dealer's cards:
⚠Do you remember the Filecoin battle royale of the century? I warned miners of a death spiral 153 days in advance, but the project team dumped the market and 98% of the mining industry was wiped out - the people who scolded me at that time now have two-meter-high grass on their graves!
💎Last November, when everyone was laughing at AI Coin as a bubble, my on-chain scanner captured unusual movements in the a16z wallet, leading subscribers to take advantage of 30 times the market value of AI16Z and other targets - many Twitter KOLs directly copied my analysis framework!
⚠Do you remember the Filecoin battle royale of the century? I warned miners of a death spiral 153 days in advance, but the project team dumped the market and 98% of the mining industry was wiped out - the people who scolded me at that time now have two-meter-high grass on their graves!
💎Last November, when everyone was laughing at AI Coin as a bubble, my on-chain scanner captured unusual movements in the a16z wallet, leading subscribers to take advantage of 30 times the market value of AI16Z and other targets - many Twitter KOLs directly copied my analysis framework!
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Bitcoin may break 100,000 USD before the 25th?!
Let me show you something very subtle, Figure 1, Bitcoin has been in a decline without a significant rebound. However, after holding at 89,000 USD yesterday, if it can continuously hold above 92,000 USD today and close the weekly above 92,000 USD, then the annual opening price of 94,000 USD is likely to break through. It has already oscillated through the downtrend line, so the rebound from this decline, a 0.382, is 97,800 USD. The key support and resistance positions are swapped, and another 0.618 is 108,000 USD. The corresponding dates are November 16th and November 11th.
Figure 2, while the market share of USDT is exactly the opposite, it is currently a bull flag. In the medium term, it is highly likely that USDT will rise further while Bitcoin will plummet. However, in the short term of 4 hours, there is an ascending trend line being tested, and structurally, the highs and lows are both descending. Once it breaks below the current small ascending trend line, the market share will retest lower support. This point in time highly coincides with the historical areas of Bitcoin at 98,000 and 108,700 USD. The two key support levels below have been repeatedly tested. Of course, the market moves step by step, and currently, there really isn't an immediate reason to short.
So the next key test is the annual opening price of 94,000 USD. If there is a volume breakout, I will completely abandon the short-term short idea; but if it encounters resistance again, the Christmas rally may end early, as the active buying has been in a sluggish state.
Let me show you something very subtle, Figure 1, Bitcoin has been in a decline without a significant rebound. However, after holding at 89,000 USD yesterday, if it can continuously hold above 92,000 USD today and close the weekly above 92,000 USD, then the annual opening price of 94,000 USD is likely to break through. It has already oscillated through the downtrend line, so the rebound from this decline, a 0.382, is 97,800 USD. The key support and resistance positions are swapped, and another 0.618 is 108,000 USD. The corresponding dates are November 16th and November 11th.
Figure 2, while the market share of USDT is exactly the opposite, it is currently a bull flag. In the medium term, it is highly likely that USDT will rise further while Bitcoin will plummet. However, in the short term of 4 hours, there is an ascending trend line being tested, and structurally, the highs and lows are both descending. Once it breaks below the current small ascending trend line, the market share will retest lower support. This point in time highly coincides with the historical areas of Bitcoin at 98,000 and 108,700 USD. The two key support levels below have been repeatedly tested. Of course, the market moves step by step, and currently, there really isn't an immediate reason to short.
So the next key test is the annual opening price of 94,000 USD. If there is a volume breakout, I will completely abandon the short-term short idea; but if it encounters resistance again, the Christmas rally may end early, as the active buying has been in a sluggish state.
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Bulls hold the line of life and death, key test at $94,000! USDT market share reveals subsequent major trends! Key support points and Bitcoin resistance levels overlap significantly! Options analysis is clever and directional!
Bulls firmly defend key position: The dividing line for short-term and medium-term market direction
In the latest round of movements, bulls successfully defended the key 'line of life and death' for Bitcoin, bringing the market back into a strong structural phase. The core test for the market will now focus on the area around $94,000—this price level not only relates to the short-term direction for the next 1–2 weeks but could also influence the judgment of the major trend for the next 6–12 months. Therefore, the analysis at this current stage is of considerable importance.
Successful defense of the key support zone and continuation of the bullish structure
Yesterday, when the market dipped to the important demand zone of $88,000–$90,000, bulls once again completed their defense at the key 1-hour support level. This area also corresponds to the Fibonacci 1.618 position, serving as an important buying zone from a technical perspective. If this area is lost, Bitcoin will face the risk of potentially dipping to $87,000, which we also analyzed yesterday.
In the latest round of movements, bulls successfully defended the key 'line of life and death' for Bitcoin, bringing the market back into a strong structural phase. The core test for the market will now focus on the area around $94,000—this price level not only relates to the short-term direction for the next 1–2 weeks but could also influence the judgment of the major trend for the next 6–12 months. Therefore, the analysis at this current stage is of considerable importance.
Successful defense of the key support zone and continuation of the bullish structure
Yesterday, when the market dipped to the important demand zone of $88,000–$90,000, bulls once again completed their defense at the key 1-hour support level. This area also corresponds to the Fibonacci 1.618 position, serving as an important buying zone from a technical perspective. If this area is lost, Bitcoin will face the risk of potentially dipping to $87,000, which we also analyzed yesterday.
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The bulls hold the lifeline, with a key test at 94,000! USDT market share reveals the subsequent big trend! Key support levels and Bitcoin resistance are highly overlapping! Options decoded smartly and trending! December 12, it is recommended to watch at 1.5x speed. #美联储降息
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Hawkish Rate Cuts, Second Bottom at $86,000? Key Levels for Bitcoin Bulls to Hold! Which Key Points Must SUI Not Break?
1. Market Fluctuation and Key Expectations: The Risk of a Second Bottom After Hawkish Rate Cuts
Recently, the price of Bitcoin has continued to fluctuate, leaving market participants feeling confused. Just yesterday, Bitcoin was still hovering around the $92,000 to $93,000 range, but has now quickly fallen to around $90,000. According to yesterday's analysis, the significant up and down differences in the market were mainly due to the news being much stronger than the technical aspects and causing a 'resonance suppression' with key technical positions.
From the perspective of CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) and the liquidation map, around $92,000 is the most concentrated stop-loss point for bulls, making it the easiest target for 'short squeezing'. Once this range is broken, the likelihood of the price retesting the $90,000 to $88,000 range is very high.
Recently, the price of Bitcoin has continued to fluctuate, leaving market participants feeling confused. Just yesterday, Bitcoin was still hovering around the $92,000 to $93,000 range, but has now quickly fallen to around $90,000. According to yesterday's analysis, the significant up and down differences in the market were mainly due to the news being much stronger than the technical aspects and causing a 'resonance suppression' with key technical positions.
From the perspective of CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) and the liquidation map, around $92,000 is the most concentrated stop-loss point for bulls, making it the easiest target for 'short squeezing'. Once this range is broken, the likelihood of the price retesting the $90,000 to $88,000 range is very high.
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Hawkish interest rate cut, second exploration at 86,000? Where should Bitcoin bulls hold their position! Which key level of SUI cannot be broken? December 11, recommended to watch at 1.5x speed. #美联储降息
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News evacuates the battlefield, huge fluctuations may trigger a margin call. Hawkish rate cut vs. new Federal Reserve chair accelerating rate cuts. DASH, XPL is breaking through
1. Extreme uncertainty before the Federal Reserve's decision
At 3 AM tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate decision. There is virtually no suspense for this meeting, as the market widely expects a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the rate to about 3.75% in the 'neutral range.' The so-called neutral interest rate is neither too tight nor too loose, meaning the Federal Reserve has reasons to pause rate cuts in the future, but may also accelerate the pace of rate cuts due to a weakening labor market.
However, due to a brief government shutdown in the U.S. during September and October, a large amount of economic data is missing, making the market's judgment on the actual economic situation unclear. Additionally, with the current chair Powell, who has been in charge for 8 years, about to step down, whether he will release hawkish 'restrictive rate cut' statements at the end of his term has also become a variable that is difficult for the market to price in advance for this meeting. Meanwhile, the new popular candidate Hassett clearly stated in a recent interview: 'We can accelerate rate cuts.'
At 3 AM tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate decision. There is virtually no suspense for this meeting, as the market widely expects a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the rate to about 3.75% in the 'neutral range.' The so-called neutral interest rate is neither too tight nor too loose, meaning the Federal Reserve has reasons to pause rate cuts in the future, but may also accelerate the pace of rate cuts due to a weakening labor market.
However, due to a brief government shutdown in the U.S. during September and October, a large amount of economic data is missing, making the market's judgment on the actual economic situation unclear. Additionally, with the current chair Powell, who has been in charge for 8 years, about to step down, whether he will release hawkish 'restrictive rate cut' statements at the end of his term has also become a variable that is difficult for the market to price in advance for this meeting. Meanwhile, the new popular candidate Hassett clearly stated in a recent interview: 'We can accelerate rate cuts.'
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The message has been withdrawn from the battlefield, and a massive shock may explode the position. Eagle brand interest rate cut vs. new Federal Reserve Chairman accelerating interest rate cuts. DASH, XPL are breaking through! December 10, it is recommended to watch at 1.5x speed. #美联储FOMC会议
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Direction Selection is Coming! Will there be a surge before Christmas? Spot buying is weakening, more patience is needed for direction to emerge! Before the FOMC meeting, will there be a hawkish or dovish rate cut?
1. The market is on the verge of direction selection
The current Bitcoin market is at a critical turning point, especially whether there will be a rapid increase before Christmas, becoming the focus of market attention. Observing the recent trend, Bitcoin had a rebound to $92,000 at the 4-hour level, but then showed a significant long upper shadow, accompanied by certain volume, indicating that selling pressure above remains heavy. The daily chart also shows a long upper shadow, further confirming that bearish pressure is still ongoing.
$92,000 is undoubtedly the most critical short-term structural level. If it cannot stabilize, there is a risk of further decline; if it successfully stabilizes, it may open up space for a rebound to $100,000 or even higher.
The current Bitcoin market is at a critical turning point, especially whether there will be a rapid increase before Christmas, becoming the focus of market attention. Observing the recent trend, Bitcoin had a rebound to $92,000 at the 4-hour level, but then showed a significant long upper shadow, accompanied by certain volume, indicating that selling pressure above remains heavy. The daily chart also shows a long upper shadow, further confirming that bearish pressure is still ongoing.
$92,000 is undoubtedly the most critical short-term structural level. If it cannot stabilize, there is a risk of further decline; if it successfully stabilizes, it may open up space for a rebound to $100,000 or even higher.
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Choosing a direction soon! Will there be a surge before Christmas? The spot buying momentum is fading, and more patience is needed to establish a direction! Before the FOMC meeting, will there be hawkish or dovish rate cuts? On December 9th, it's recommended to watch at 1.5x speed. #美联储重启降息步伐
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Has Bitcoin filled the gap? Will it continue to rebound to $100,000? Is Ethereum's momentum stronger? When will altcoins take off? With the upcoming FOMC meeting, will the positive news turn into negative?
1. Bitcoin quickly filled the gap, with $87,000–$89,000 becoming a key long position area.
Last Friday, Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, quickly rebounding after entering a consolidation phase over the weekend. Looking back at the previous structure, despite the market once believing there would not be a deep retracement, from a technical perspective, signs of fatigue such as MACD divergence and low volume during the upward movement had already appeared, coupled with the unfilled FVG gap, which made filling the gap a high-probability event. The facts also confirmed this, as BTC accurately filled the gap to the $87,000–$89,000 range, providing an excellent buying opportunity for the market.
Last Friday, Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, quickly rebounding after entering a consolidation phase over the weekend. Looking back at the previous structure, despite the market once believing there would not be a deep retracement, from a technical perspective, signs of fatigue such as MACD divergence and low volume during the upward movement had already appeared, coupled with the unfilled FVG gap, which made filling the gap a high-probability event. The facts also confirmed this, as BTC accurately filled the gap to the $87,000–$89,000 range, providing an excellent buying opportunity for the market.
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Has the Bitcoin gap been filled? Will it continue to rebound to 100,000? Is Ethereum's momentum stronger? When will altcoins take off? With the FOMC meeting approaching, will it be a case of good news being fully priced in, resulting in bad news? Concerns about insufficient spot trading volume. On December 8th, it is recommended to watch at 1.5x speed.
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Will it be a sideways decline instead of a drop? No! A pullback is highly likely! A precise prediction of a small pullback; tonight's PCE will lead to a larger drop. Is this a buying opportunity?
Thoughts in the market fluctuations: Will Bitcoin experience a sideways decline?
The recent market has been in a state of repeated fluctuations, and many are concerned whether the trend will be a 'sideways decline'. From the market performance, although Bitcoin has experienced a spike-like pullback in the short term, it quickly found support in the Vegas channel and rebounded. This means that while the market has seen a pullback, there has not been a deep decline structure, and overall it still belongs to a washout-like fluctuation.
Ethereum dropped to a low of 3060 USD yesterday, also in line with the expected pullback rhythm. If previous analyses suggested positioning near the structural support of 3100, most investors should have successfully boarded without chasing the price at high levels. From the current overall trend, the short-term fluctuations still belong to a healthy adjustment.
The recent market has been in a state of repeated fluctuations, and many are concerned whether the trend will be a 'sideways decline'. From the market performance, although Bitcoin has experienced a spike-like pullback in the short term, it quickly found support in the Vegas channel and rebounded. This means that while the market has seen a pullback, there has not been a deep decline structure, and overall it still belongs to a washout-like fluctuation.
Ethereum dropped to a low of 3060 USD yesterday, also in line with the expected pullback rhythm. If previous analyses suggested positioning near the structural support of 3100, most investors should have successfully boarded without chasing the price at high levels. From the current overall trend, the short-term fluctuations still belong to a healthy adjustment.
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Using horizontal to replace decline? No! A pullback is a high probability event! Accurately predicting a small pullback, tonight's PCE will lead to a larger decline. Is this an opportunity to buy? December 5th, recommended to watch at 1.5x speed.
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Bullish continuation, but don't chase long! A pullback could happen at any time! Where to enter long? Ethereum is stronger than Bitcoin! Hype may crash.
Bitcoin's strength continues, but it's not advisable to chase long positions in the short term
Recently, Bitcoin continues to maintain a bullish pattern, but the current level is not suitable for blindly chasing long positions. The market shows obvious fluctuations, and Bitcoin is still in a critical neckline area, having neither broken upward nor shown a valid pullback. Therefore, the short-term direction is extremely tangled. Will it continue to form a daily-level W bottom, extending upwards to a long-term target of $107,000 to $113,000, or will it fall back after being blocked at the neckline? We need to wait for more signals to confirm.
Impact of macro data and market expectations
Yesterday's market showed signs of a pullback, but the U.S. employment index was significantly below expectations, reinforcing the market's expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which increased the probability of a rate cut to 89%, stimulating Bitcoin's short-term stabilization.
Recently, Bitcoin continues to maintain a bullish pattern, but the current level is not suitable for blindly chasing long positions. The market shows obvious fluctuations, and Bitcoin is still in a critical neckline area, having neither broken upward nor shown a valid pullback. Therefore, the short-term direction is extremely tangled. Will it continue to form a daily-level W bottom, extending upwards to a long-term target of $107,000 to $113,000, or will it fall back after being blocked at the neckline? We need to wait for more signals to confirm.
Impact of macro data and market expectations
Yesterday's market showed signs of a pullback, but the U.S. employment index was significantly below expectations, reinforcing the market's expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which increased the probability of a rate cut to 89%, stimulating Bitcoin's short-term stabilization.
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Bullish continuation, but don't chase long positions! A pullback may happen at any time! Where to enter long? Ethereum is stronger than Bitcoin! Hype may crash. December 4th, it is recommended to watch at 1.5x speed. #ETH巨鲸增持
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Currently, BTC belongs to a typical "momentum exhaustion after rebounding to key resistance" structure. This round of rebound has risen all the way from 80600, but encountered significant resistance in the dense trading area around 92500–93500, with the price peaking and then starting to fall back. From the indicators, the 1-hour MACD momentum has shown high-level attenuation, the histogram has shortened and is approaching a death cross, indicating insufficient short-term buying strength.
On-chain and market data are similarly weak. The spot CVD continues to decline, indicating a lack of real spot buying during the rebound; the contract CVD has not synchronized to new highs, indicating that the main force has not actively pushed for a breakthrough. At the same time, open interest (OI) has risen during the rebound process, representing that many chasing bulls have built positions at high levels, making the structure fragile. Once the price falls back, it is easy to trigger a round of passive liquidation or forced clearing of long positions. Depth data shows that there are dense sell orders above and weak support below, making it easier for the market to be pushed back at resistance.
Overall, BTC is currently in a weak range at the end of the rebound. If it cannot effectively break through the 93500–96500 area, it is more likely to fall back to around 88500 or 84000 to seek support in the short term. Only with a strengthening of the spot CVD and a volume breakout above resistance can the rebound possibly continue. Overall, remain cautious, buy on dips, or pursue longs on breakthroughs.
On-chain and market data are similarly weak. The spot CVD continues to decline, indicating a lack of real spot buying during the rebound; the contract CVD has not synchronized to new highs, indicating that the main force has not actively pushed for a breakthrough. At the same time, open interest (OI) has risen during the rebound process, representing that many chasing bulls have built positions at high levels, making the structure fragile. Once the price falls back, it is easy to trigger a round of passive liquidation or forced clearing of long positions. Depth data shows that there are dense sell orders above and weak support below, making it easier for the market to be pushed back at resistance.
Overall, BTC is currently in a weak range at the end of the rebound. If it cannot effectively break through the 93500–96500 area, it is more likely to fall back to around 88500 or 84000 to seek support in the short term. Only with a strengthening of the spot CVD and a volume breakout above resistance can the rebound possibly continue. Overall, remain cautious, buy on dips, or pursue longs on breakthroughs.
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Stop tapering! Is Bitcoin reversing? Hold on! The new chairman of the Federal Reserve is elected, but going long may be manipulated by the big players! Where can we consider going long? Bitcoin market analysis on the morning of December 3rd, recommended to watch at 1.5x speed. #美联储重启降息步伐
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Bitcoin Weak Rebound, Continuing Downward! Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rates, Global Liquidity Tightens! Is there still a Christmas rally? Is there an opportunity for a rebound? Where will the rebound go?
Market Volatility and Bitcoin Trend Analysis: A Comprehensive Breakdown of Macro and Technical Perspectives by Lao K
1. Daily level fully weakens: Bitcoin's downward trend is confirmed
From the daily Bitcoin chart, the large bearish candle from yesterday almost completely engulfs all the gains from the past week, which is an extremely clear bearish signal. The bullish MACD energy bar has started to clearly shrink, and the previously golden cross fast and slow lines are also showing signs of convergence, with the technical structure turning unfavorable.
The price not only failed to approach the previously expected test of the $98,000 downward trend line, but continued to weaken after breaking key support. Overall, the daily level has shown an absolute bearish pattern, and the larger trend continues in the previous descending channel.
1. Daily level fully weakens: Bitcoin's downward trend is confirmed
From the daily Bitcoin chart, the large bearish candle from yesterday almost completely engulfs all the gains from the past week, which is an extremely clear bearish signal. The bullish MACD energy bar has started to clearly shrink, and the previously golden cross fast and slow lines are also showing signs of convergence, with the technical structure turning unfavorable.
The price not only failed to approach the previously expected test of the $98,000 downward trend line, but continued to weaken after breaking key support. Overall, the daily level has shown an absolute bearish pattern, and the larger trend continues in the previous descending channel.
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Bitcoin is currently maintaining a rebound structure in the 15-minute cycle. The previously formed head and shoulders bottom has broken through the neckline (approximately 86600–86800) and has successfully stabilized, belonging to the "consolidation after a breakout" phase, not indicating weakness. Although the MACD momentum has declined, it has not crossed bearishly, and the volume structure also shows normal oscillation consolidation. The short-term rebound target first looks towards 87000–87300; if the volume increases and attacks, there is a chance to further reach the strong resistance area in the chart at 87800–88500.
Overall, as long as the price does not fall below 86500, the rebound trend will continue; if it falls below, it will enter a weak correction and may retest the 86000–85800 area.
Overall, as long as the price does not fall below 86500, the rebound trend will continue; if it falls below, it will enter a weak correction and may retest the 86000–85800 area.
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