老K的比特币行情洞察

$BTC
Bitcoin is currently at this edge; if it breaks down, we could see further declines. The pre-market for US stocks has already started to drop. If it can hold strong until 9:30, we might see a rebound, which would give us a chance for a short. However, if it breaks down, the next target will be 70k.

Two precise predictions, HYPE keeps surging, SUI dropped from 1.35 back to 1, objective analysis for reference. $HYPE $SUI

HYpe's technical analysis has broken out, should we chase it? Video breakdown coming up. $HYPE

The 1-hour time frame has broken above the triangle convergence, which usually indicates a false breakout in this context. The 15-minute Vegas channel is no longer acting as resistance, and we are currently hovering around the 30-minute Vegas channel. However, the resistance shouldn't be too strong. The main focus should be on the 1-hour Vegas channel, along with the 20-day moving average coinciding with the recent price drop on the left side. This is a crucial testing point. If there's a price downturn here, you know what to do. $BTC

The so-called World Cup curse is more of a myth: while there was indeed a dip around early November, a deeper dive reveals that the main cause wasn't the World Cup but rather the FTX exchange incident, which triggered a chain reaction, including the panic selling from CZ liquidating his FTT holdings, leading to a drop of 23% on that day. Although the World Cup kickoff on November 20 did see some cash flow into betting markets causing a slight outflow, this had no decisive impact on Bitcoin's chart. Therefore, don’t treat the World Cup as a primary signal for shorting; instead, focus on Bitcoin's actual price action and order book data. The recent CHZ pump is largely just a setup. #世界杯 #chz going against the trend!

It crashed, guys! Right now, those with long positions are most worried about whether this massive drop is a repeat of the 2000 internet bubble. Has AI really hit its peak? It's still uncertain.
Currently, we have a triple whammy of bad news: inflation spiked last night but didn't immediately crash the market, the Fed isn't just holding off on rate cuts but is now rumored to be considering rate hikes, and the situation in the Middle East is escalating, causing oil prices to soar. In simple terms, global money is about to get more expensive, and high-risk assets are taking the hit first. Bitcoin and US AI stocks are completely tied at the hip; if one drops, the other is sure to follow. It's not that their fundamentals have taken a nosedive; just earlier, the US stock market opened with a 2% crash, and it's since recovered a bit.
Let's get to the key levels: Bitcoin has just broken below the vital level of 79300. From here, don’t look at anything else—first, watch if it can rebound back to 79300. If it does, that would prove to be a false breakdown aimed at hunting liquidity. We mainly need to focus on tomorrow morning's daily close; if it stays below, keep your eyes on the 75000-76000 range. If that level can't hold, we're definitely heading down to the 70000-72000 area, which is a previous high volume zone to find a bottom. If it holds, that would be the spot to jump into long positions.
On the US stock side, for the S&P 500, first watch 7347; if it can't hold, we're looking at 7200. For the Nasdaq, the critical point is 29000; if it breaks below, Bitcoin won't hold up either.
Of course, let's be real—it’s not the same as 2000. Back then, it was all about shell companies telling stories, while now companies like Nvidia have solid multi-billion dollar contracts in hand. But for those purely story-driven AI application stocks, you need to run; they've taken the biggest hits during this adjustment.
In terms of trading strategy, don’t go all in, and avoid using leverage. Wait for the panic to subside and for the market to stabilize before gradually picking up some positions.