Today is May 20th, 10:30 AM. First off, a big shoutout to everyone for the support and loyalty over the past while. Wishing you all the best in seizing opportunities during this bull market and raking in profits. Now, let's talk about the hot topic in the market — the upcoming World Cup and whether it will trigger the infamous 'World Cup crash' that traders often talk about. Looking back at the market performance during the last World Cup, there were indeed consecutive dips around the opening in November, but a deeper analysis reveals that the main cause of that drop wasn’t the World Cup itself. It was actually the fallout from the FTX exchange incident, including a panic sell-off triggered by CZ dumping his FTT holdings, which saw a 23% drop in a single day. While the World Cup does tend to draw some funds towards betting markets, leading to a slight outflow, it didn't have a decisive impact on Bitcoin's charts. So, let’s not treat the World Cup as a major shorting indicator. Instead, we should focus on Bitcoin's actual price action and market data.

Bitcoin trend and key level analysis

From yesterday's trading session, Bitcoin's trend leaned bearish, and previous analysis suggested looking for opportunities to short on rallies. Yesterday formed a doji candle with reduced volume, showing a 'double top' pattern. The current focus is on the recent low on the left side, around $75,000; whether this level can hold is crucial. If it breaks down, the downside potential opens up further, targeting $60,000 or lower; if support holds, the weekly level could maintain a bullish uptrend.

From the hourly perspective, the current market is in a consolidation state, with prices not making new lows, and the trend is somewhat unclear. From the order book data, yesterday saw a slight net outflow in ETFs, and the selling pressure in the spot market has eased somewhat. Observing the CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) data since 8 AM on May 18, overall positions have been rising, but CVD is declining. This indicates that it's not just a lot of long positions getting stopped out, but retail traders are continuously chasing shorts. With CVD continuing to decline while prices aren't making new lows, it reflects that major funds are passively absorbing through spot buy orders.

There are large Bitcoin orders around the $000 mark, and I suggest setting your core take-profit level at around $75,500.

Ethereum technical patterns and trading strategies

Ethereum's daily chart has recently broken below a bullish flag pattern. If Bitcoin can't hold the $75,000 mark, Ethereum could further dip to the downside edge of the bullish flag extension, around $1,890.

Trading thoughts on the correlation between oil and gold

Currently, oil is in a continuous uptrend; we need to keep an eye on its descending trendline and horizontal resistance levels. If it fails to break through the resistance and pulls back, it could be an opportunity to add to short positions. Oil and gold are showing a complete negative correlation. Regarding gold, although the previous long position target was missed, the structure has not completely broken down in the current market environment. Despite recent panic selling triggered by inflation expectations related to the Strait of Hormuz issues, the closing prices over the past three days have remained above the left-side low, indicating that the bullish structure on the daily chart is still intact.

Despite the interest rate cut expectations from the election of Powell reducing gold's appeal and the current sluggish trend, the current price level still represents a decent buy zone in the medium to long term. I recommend that investors lacking the capacity to handle market volatility prioritize spot buying. Also, a heads up: if you choose to short oil (CL), watch out for those high funding rates. If you expect a drop in the next 10 days, those hefty funding rates will eat into your position cost by about 1% daily, so be mentally prepared before you act.

I hope the market analysis above provides you with clear references for your trading decisions. If you have specific topics in the future, feel free to discuss anytime.