【US Stocks | 6.13 Rate Decision Preview】Warsh's Debut Hits 4.2% Inflation, Dot Plot is the Key
Next Wednesday (6.17), the Federal Reserve's FOMC decision drops, marking Warsh's (Kevin Warsh) first meeting since taking the chair on May 22. The market is almost unanimous: rate futures pricing shows a "hold steady" probability of over 99%, and it's a done deal that the federal funds rate will remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. The real focus isn’t on the rate itself, but on the collision of three key issues.
First, inflation remains sticky. May CPI YoY is +4.2%, core +2.9%, both exceeding the 2% target, and the 172k new jobs added in May aren’t too shabby either. This puts a pause on any "rate cuts", and the policy statement is likely to shift from a dovish stance to neutral or even hawkish. Second, Warsh is known for his hawkish views, and the wording and tone in his first presser will be dissected word for word. Third, the dot plot (SEP) divergence: the Fed’s own dot plot previously hinted at one rate cut this year, but the prediction market has about 57% betting on zero cuts throughout 2026. If this expectation gap is realized, it could spark volatility.
Points to Watch:
· On 6.17 at 2 AM Beijing time, the statement + SEP dot plot will indicate how many rate cuts are projected for 2026
· Warsh's presser wording: Will he clarify "higher for longer"
· Same day May retail sales: Can consumption and inflation resonate
· On 6.19, Juneteenth US stock markets will be closed, liquidity may thin out early
As the rate decision week approaches, divergences widen, and volatility often ramps up before and after the decision. Keep an eye on the rhythm, manage your positions, and there’s no need to rush in.
#美股 #美联储 #NASDAQ
(The above is a compilation of public market information and does not constitute investment advice.)
Next Wednesday (6.17), the Federal Reserve's FOMC decision drops, marking Warsh's (Kevin Warsh) first meeting since taking the chair on May 22. The market is almost unanimous: rate futures pricing shows a "hold steady" probability of over 99%, and it's a done deal that the federal funds rate will remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. The real focus isn’t on the rate itself, but on the collision of three key issues.
First, inflation remains sticky. May CPI YoY is +4.2%, core +2.9%, both exceeding the 2% target, and the 172k new jobs added in May aren’t too shabby either. This puts a pause on any "rate cuts", and the policy statement is likely to shift from a dovish stance to neutral or even hawkish. Second, Warsh is known for his hawkish views, and the wording and tone in his first presser will be dissected word for word. Third, the dot plot (SEP) divergence: the Fed’s own dot plot previously hinted at one rate cut this year, but the prediction market has about 57% betting on zero cuts throughout 2026. If this expectation gap is realized, it could spark volatility.
Points to Watch:
· On 6.17 at 2 AM Beijing time, the statement + SEP dot plot will indicate how many rate cuts are projected for 2026
· Warsh's presser wording: Will he clarify "higher for longer"
· Same day May retail sales: Can consumption and inflation resonate
· On 6.19, Juneteenth US stock markets will be closed, liquidity may thin out early
As the rate decision week approaches, divergences widen, and volatility often ramps up before and after the decision. Keep an eye on the rhythm, manage your positions, and there’s no need to rush in.
#美股 #美联储 #NASDAQ
(The above is a compilation of public market information and does not constitute investment advice.)