Bitcoin has "clogged" a key maritime route. A BTC tax threatens to reignite war, and Washington a
Increasingly heated economic and political tensions, threatening a literal outbreak of war (again), are being stirred by the actions of the Iranian authorities, whose central element is $BTC . Iran has announced, as is well known, that it is annexing the Strait of Hormuz and intends to exercise sovereign control over the maritime route connecting the Persian Gulf with the rest of the world. The most visible element of this control is the fees the Iranian state demands from ships sailing this route.
These fees were formally introduced in mid-March, although at the time they were more declarative in nature (intensive bombardment of Iran, especially its naval assets, had already brought all traffic in the Strait to a standstill). This changed this week with the announcement of a two-week ceasefire. Although the ceasefire is extremely fragile, and both sides have already accused each other of violating it, it has allowed the "Strait of Hormuz Management Plan," formally passed by the sham Iranian parliament on March 30, to officially come into effect.
Initially, back in March, it was reported that the fees would be collected in Chinese yuan. However, this has now changed, and these duties—though settled in terms of the dollar equivalent—will be collected in cryptoassets. This refers, of course, to Bitcoin or stablecoins. Tehran wants tankers to pay the equivalent of $1 for each barrel of oil. A full-size VLCC supertanker with a capacity of 2 million barrels would cost around $2 million, which at a BTC exchange rate of around $72,128. (as of April 9th – Bitcoin strengthened amid reports of a ceasefire) would be equivalent to 27.7 BTC. Ships with empty cargo holds can theoretically pass free of charge – however, Iran continues to demand compliance with the cumbersome process of obtaining permission for passage, which in itself is a significant burden. Permission must be granted by Iran's Supreme National Security Council, a ridiculously high-level body. The procedure requires emailing Iranian authorities with cargo details, a crew list, and the port of destination no later than 96 hours before the planned entry. After verification, the tanker receives instructions to pay in BTC within seconds of approval. After the transaction, a one-time access code is generated, and the vessel is taken over by an "escort" from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy.
The daily limit is approximately 12 ships, varying according to a five-level classification, depending on nationality and the country's "friendliness" towards Iran – ships with ties to the US or Israel are to be denied passage at all. Meanwhile, according to data from the Kpler Observatory, before the conflict, 100–120 commercial vessels passed through the Strait daily, including tankers carrying approximately 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supply. After the introduction of the fees, traffic dropped to a few vessels per day, and oil tankers did not pass at all during the first hours of the ceasefire.
On top of all this, there are costs – as mentioned, significant ones.
Naturally, Washington considered the introduction of fees to be completely out of the question. The White House emphasizes that the primary condition for the ceasefire was the "unconditional" and "complete" reopening of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that attempts to collect fees constitute a violation of the ceasefire. Iran maintains that the system is technical in nature and serves to protect against the confiscation of assets under sanctions – the lifting of which, loosely envisaged as one element of a possible final peace agreement, seems even more unlikely under the circumstances.
There is currently no information on whether the United States would be prepared to resume military action due to attempts to charge ships with Bitcoin. Some observers point out that while the US has no pressing interest in unblocking the route (the US doesn't use it anyway, and the complications are affecting China), the Arab states of the Persian Gulf do – whose economies depend for over 90% on oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. These countries do not accept Iran's de facto annexation of the crucial route and could potentially be willing to use force to force its opening.
Regardless of the political storm the attempted to introduce fees has caused, it is also significant for another reason. It would constitute the first such significant instance in which Bitcoin has been treated by a major state, which Iran undoubtedly is, as a sovereign currency in international transactions. The full spectrum of consequences of this development could also be interesting. It's worth realizing that, assuming a flow of 130 ships per day, the system would generate over 3,600 BTC per day—over eight times more than the global production of new Bitcoins (450 BTC/day). Admittedly, these are exciting times for BTC. Do you think these events will positively impact the BTC price or the opposite? Let us know in the comments. #bitcoin
The $SOL cryptocurrency rebounded above $85 on Friday morning, partially recouping losses from Wednesday's rally. Despite a temporary rally, the coin remains below a key level – the 50-day moving average (SMA), maintaining the risk of further declines. According to data, Solana gained 4.5% and reached an intraday high of $85.20 before stabilizing around $83.
The rebound followed the broader market, as Bitcoin broke above $73,000. However, despite improved sentiment, SOL failed to break through important technical resistance. On the daily chart, Solana has been trading within a broad range of $76–$92 since February. In the past two weeks, the coin has fallen to the lower end of this range and found itself below the 50-day SMA (currently around $86). Historically, a break below this average since October 2023 has regularly resulted in strong downward pressure. A Recurring Dangerous Pattern
Over the past six months, Solana has been repeating a very similar, three-stage pattern before each major decline:
A brief retracement above the 50-day SMA
A quick drop back below it + loss of support from previous highs
Consolidation phase ("trap") – sideways movement within a narrow range
This consolidation was usually followed by a strong breakout and the formation of a new local bottom.
Solana is currently in the second stage of this cycle – stuck in a consolidation between $79 and $81, below the 50-day SMA of $86. If the coin does not regain $86 in the coming days, there is a real risk of continued declines. Based on calculations based on previous cycles, another significant downward move could push Solana's price as low as $52.
What's next for the price The current consolidation should not be interpreted as stabilization, but rather as a "spring tension" before the next downward move. Until Solana sustainably breaks above the 50-day SMA, the technical picture remains negative. However, the crypto market is volatile – a potential breakout of the resistance at $86 could invalidate the bearish setup and pave the way for a faster rebound. #solana $RAVE
Michael Saylor Assesses Bitcoin Has Already Bottomed Out
More than six months have passed since the October 2025 crash. The market is slowly becoming increasingly impatient and weary of the crisis. Over the past few weeks, more and more data and analyses have emerged suggesting an end to the negative trend and a transition to the next phase. Michael Saylor's recent statement also brought considerable optimism. During his speech at the investor meeting, Mizuho assessed that $BTC likely bottomed out when it fell to $60,000. Saylor emphasized that market bottoms typically occur when sellers' strength has been exhausted, not when confidence returns. Furthermore, Saylor attributed the recent declines to mass liquidations among miners who used excessive leverage. He also pointed to the selling activity of so-called weak hands in the market. In his opinion, these factors have intensified selling pressure. Furthermore, Saylor addressed the threat posed by quantum computers. Strategy's CEO believes the risk is remote and manageable. Saylor believes that even if the threat of quantum computers becomes real, Bitcoin's structure allows for updates that will dethrone the threats. While much data suggests that Bitcoin has indeed bottomed out, some analyses suggest a more cautious approach. Darkfost, an analyst at CryptoQuant, estimates that BTC has entered the final phase of a bear market. At the same time, he believes Bitcoin could still fall lower. Furthermore, the analyst argues that this period of volatility and uncertainty could persist for several more months. Darkfost points out that at this stage, we are seeing pressure on long-term holders (LTH). As the analyst describes: "It typically starts with STH, which has already been under pressure for six months, before shifting towards LTH. This pattern repeats itself every cycle." To capture dynamics and changes, the expert advises monitoring the LTH SOPR (Spend Profit Ratio). This indicator helps determine whether users are experiencing losses or profits during the sell-off. This allows us to capture the overall trend. Currently, the 30-day moving average of the LTH SOPR remains below 1 (around 0.96). This result indicates losses for long-term Bitcoin holders. However, the annual average remains positive (1.71). As LTH begins to experience losses over the longer term, the market will be closer to entering an accumulation phase. #Bitcoin❗
$ETH is showing "early signs of recovery." We last saw such readings in 2023. The cryptocurrency market crisis is dragging on, but subsequent indicators offer hope that the trend will soon reverse. Ethereum is sending promising signals. Recently, you can read a lot about record-low ETH reserves on major exchanges, but that's not all. Darkfost, an analyst at CryptoQuant, noticed a few more interesting things. According to the expert, despite the ongoing uncertain macroeconomic situation, several signals indicate a gradual improvement in Ethereum's situation, especially in the case of derivatives. As Darkfost assessed: "Ethereum derivatives are showing early signs of recovery." The ETH Taker Buy Sell Ratio on Binance has returned to positive readings, with a monthly average of around 1.016 and remaining above 1 for several consecutive days. As Darkfast points out, this reflects a gradual return of buyer dominance in the futures markets. The indicator last showed such readings in 2023. The CryptQaunt analyst argues that this signal is particularly significant because Binance accounts for over 37% of total ETH open trade. This makes the exchange a key place to assess derivatives positioning. Developments in the Middle East appear to be crucial for the price of ETH and other cryptocurrencies in the near future. However, there is one more thing that could become a potential catalyst for ETH price: the Glamsterdam update, which will be released in the middle of the year. The update will raise the gas limit from 60 million to 200 million. This is expected to lead to an increase in block capacity. Furthermore, the change is expected to improve scalability, and transactions are expected to be faster and cheaper. At the end of the year, the Hegot update will also be released, introducing security against threats posed by quantum computers. Last year, the Pectra update kicked off Ethereum's rally to new all-time highs. Will history repeat itself? #Ethereum $XRP $BTC
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#robo $ROBO rose from $0.02 on its debut day to $0.0481 on its fifth day and is currently trading sideways, undecided whether to continue rising or falling at $0.397. As a token with the potential to enable the construction, management, and evolution of general-purpose robots thanks to verifiable computations and agent-native infrastructure, it has a bright future. We all know that the future lies in AI and robotics, among other things. Therefore, tokens related to them are quite safe investment tools. Furthermore, considering the fact that the token's price didn't drop by 80-90% on launch day, as is often the case with many tokens, it shows that investors see potential in it. What are your thoughts on it? @FabricFND
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#Mira After reaching a debut price of $2.30 $MIRA fell for a very long time, reaching a low of $0.0756. For a month, the token's price has been trading sideways and currently stands at $0.942. For a week, the token's price has been trying to break out higher, but has failed. However, this token is worth keeping an eye on because it could still surprise positively, especially since it's not a meme token. As a decentralized protocol designed to address trustworthiness issues in artificial intelligence systems, Mira Network has its usefulness, making it a token with a future. @mira_network
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$XRP is starting to run low on exchanges. According to the latest data from CryptoQuant, the XRP Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) on the Binance exchange has fallen to a two-year low. The ratio currently stands at 0.025. It last reached a similar level in January 2024. This is the result of whales massively transferring tokens from the exchange to private wallets. In the past, a sharp decline in supply on major exchanges has occurred during price declines. Accumulation has typically been followed by a rebound.
This appears to be a beneficial situation in the long term. The whales' withdrawal of XRP suggests they still see potential in the project, but until a rebound occurs, they prefer to store their holdings in a more secure location than an exchange. History has repeatedly shown that even the largest exchanges lack adequate security measures to protect against hacker attacks. The latest data on whale activity suggests we're seeing an XRP accumulation process similar to that which preceded the November 2024 bull run. However, this issue requires a broader perspective. Major South Korean exchanges such as Bithumb and Upbit still hold significant Ripple reserves. Bithumb's reserves currently range from 1.79 to 1.84 billion XRP. Upbit, meanwhile, recently recorded record-high reserves of this token. The exchange is currently estimated to hold between 6.3 and 6.4 billion XRP, approximately 10% of the total supply. Furthermore, it's worth noting that the overall situation is somewhat different than in the past. Several potential catalysts emerged in 2024, supporting the narrative of a rebound for both the entire market and Ripple itself. One of these was the US presidential election, which has so far coincided with gains in the cryptocurrency market. Just before the bull market, the first applications for the launch of spot XRP ETF funds also appeared, strengthening the project's credibility. At that point, the resolution of the dispute with the SEC was also drawing closer. $GIGGLE $SIREN
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