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Bitcoin remains in a broader higher timeframe range, with price respecting major supply and demand zones as opposed to forming a medium-term trend.
The previous impulsive move into the 89.8k–90.6k supply zone was sharply rejected and was followed by a correction pullback into mid-range demand. Since then, the price has recovered from its lows and is consolidating above 88k, which is indicative of responsive buyers and not fatigue sellers.
Fibonacci retracement levels of the most recent impulse reveal price to be trading between the 0.618–0.5 retracement which is normally a decision zone when ranging. Volume has calmed since the sell-off, a telltale sign of subsiding bearish follow-through.
Key levels: Primary resistance/supply: 89.8k– 90.6k Intermediate resistance: ~89.4k Near term support: 87.6k– 88k Range demand: 86.4k–8 6.8k
Market scenarios: While above 87.6k–88k, a rotation back up to range highs (89.5k–90k) is definitely a possibility. If this level is not hold the price may go down to the lower trading range demand near 86.5k.
🔥PMI JUMPED ABOVE FORECASTS! EXPECTATIONS = 39.8 ACTUAL = 43.5 JANUARY RATE REDUCTIONS AND QE (MONEY PRINTING) ARE NOW A GIVEN. BULLISH FOR BITCOIN AND CRYPTO! $BTC $ETH $SOL
Net total flows: –$446mn, continuing the outflow run after the price shock on 10 October. Indicating that investor sentiment is still ‘fragile’ and still not fully recovered. Total outflows since Oct 10: –$3.2 billion Total AUM: Approximately 10% YTD increase YTD inflows of $46.3b are well short of $48.7b in 2024, a final reminder too that many investors are not yet meaningfully in the green accounting for both price and flows.
🔴 Bitcoin: –$443 million $BTC had the highest withdrawals after the launch of $XRP and SOL ETFs. 🔴 Ethereum: –$59.5 million $ETH is still being sold off too with total outflows of –1.6 billion since the very ETF launches. 🟢 Altcoins proving resilient: XRP: + $70.2 million Solana: + $7.5 million
➡️ Since the US mid-October ETF launches ERC20 XRP has gained +$1.07bn , while SOL has gained +$1.34bn in inflows rebelling against the wider downtrend.
✨ Conclusion: Institutional funds are still leaving the US crypto market so what we’re seeing is a bit of a defensive, risk-averse posture in the very near term. BTC and ETH continue to be under pressure while capital continues to flow into SOL and XRP, pointing to a focused asset allocation approach. Overall market tone: holding up shorts – risk-off, not quite back to “risk-on”.
Wenn $ETH Ende Dezember im Minus endet, wäre 2025 der 9. aufeinanderfolgende Verlustmonat. Die einzige wirkliche Analogie aus der Geschichte ist der Bärenmarkt von 2018. Es geht nicht um Panik. Es geht darum, die Marktstruktur zu respektieren.
$BTC stays in a defined range, rotating between supply and demand area instead of having a trend.
Price after a strong run on high volume into the 89.8k–90.6k supply zone was strongly rejected and has now consolidated above important demand at 86.4k–86.8k. The reaction with selling volume from this area hints at weakening selling (not increasing selling).
Activity continues to fade, confirming that the market is just waiting for something, waiting for more players or a break one way or the other.
Levels to Watch: Resistance/Supply: 89.8k–90.6k Support / Demand: 86.4k–86.8k
Scenarios: As long as that demand holds, a rotation back up to 88.8k–90k remains the greater likelihood.
A clear break and acceptance below 86.4k would bring focus to the lower liquidity around 85k.
Note: Patience and level awareness are more important than prediction in this environment.