M9_Crypto

Key points
TSX up 1.5% at 32,470.98
Posts biggest gain since October 14
Miners lead as gold rebounds
Unemployment rate falls to 6.5%
By Fergal Smith
Canada's main stock index rounded out a volatile week on a strong note on Friday as metal prices rallied and investors took advantage of recent cheapening of the market.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index TSX ended up 476.38 points, or 1.5%, at 32,470.98, posting its biggest advance since October 14 and clawing back most of the previous day's sharp decline. For the week, the index was up 1.7%.
Wall Street also jumped, with chip stocks rallying on expectations they would benefit from increased spending on Al data centers by Amazon and Alphabet."Today seems a little bit of a relief rally and investors are picking up some of the bargains that have been created by the sell-off pretty much across the board," said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.
"We're just getting into earnings season for the TSX. Similar to what we're seeing in the United States, earnings are coming in quite strong and that should be the expectation that we get pretty decent earnings."
Domestic employment data was mixed. It showed that the economy unexpectedly shed 24,800 jobs in January but the unemployment rate dipped to a 16-month low of 6.5% as fewer people looked for work.
"The positive is that the rout we've seen in the metals sector it looks like it's perhaps behind us with the strength we've seen in the gold names today and other precious metals," Petursson said.
The materials group TTMT, which includes metal mining shares jumped 3.9%. Gold GOLD rallied 4.8%, helped by bargain hunting, a slightly weaker U.S. dollar and lingering concerns over U.S.-Iran talks in Oman, while silver XAGUSD1! recovered from a 1-1/2-month low.The price of oil CL1! also rose, settling 0.4% higher at $63.55 a barrel, which helped lift energy TTEN by 1.9%.
Heavily weighted financials (.SPTTFS) added 0.9% and industrials ended 1.5% higher.
Nine of 10 major sectors posted gains. The exception was the defensive utilities sector, which ended 0.2% lower.
The price of oil CL1! also rose, settling 0.4% higher at $63.55 a barrel, which helped lift energy TTEN by 1.9%.
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Bitcoin has experienced one of its sharpest corrections in recent years, slipping below the $65,000 level and reaching its lowest price since October 2024. The decline reflects persistent selling pressure across the crypto market, accompanied by deteriorating macro sentiment, reduced liquidity, and cautious positioning among institutional participants. Recent price action suggests the market is entering a critical phase where confidence, rather than technical levels alone, may determine the next directional move.
Amid this uncertainty, the Binance SAFU Fund disclosed the purchase of an additional 3,600 BTC, valued at roughly $233.37 million. While such acquisitions do not guarantee a market reversal, they indicate continued strategic accumulation by major industry players even during periods of elevated volatility.
Market sentiment has deteriorated markedly. Several sentiment indicators now sit near levels last observed during the 2022 bear market, when risk appetite contracted sharply and investors adopted defensive positioning. This environment typically coincides withMarket sentiment has deteriorated markedly. Several sentiment indicators now sit near levels last observed during the 2022 bear market, when risk appetite contracted sharply and investors adopted defensive positioning. This environment typically coincides with reduced speculative activity, heightened caution among retail traders, and increased scrutiny from institutional capital.

Institutional Accumulation Emerges Amid Prolonged Capitulation Phase

Arkham data indicates that the Binance SAFU fund has continued accumulating Bitcoin, bringing its total recent purchases to approximately 6,230 BTC, valued near $434.5 million. While such activity signals ongoing participation from large institutional entities, it does not necessarily imply an imminent price recovery. Historically, significant purchases during corrective phases often occur alongside broader market stress rather than marking an immediate turning point.

Current market conditions increasingly resemble a classic capitulation phase. Capitulation typically emerges when sustained price declines force weaker holders to exit positions, often at losses, leading to elevated exchange inflows, compressed liquidity, and sharp sentiment deterioration. These episodes can persist longer than many participants anticipate, particularly when macroeconomic uncertainty, risk-off positioning, and tightening liquidity conditions coincide.

Importantly, capitulation does not follow a fixed timeline. In prior cycles, similar phases unfolded over weeks or even months before a durable bottom formed. During these periods, volatility tends to remain elevated, failed rallies are common, and confidence rebuilds gradually rather than abruptly.

The key variables to monitor include exchange flows, derivatives leverage, spot demand recovery, and broader macro signals. Until those metrics stabilize, the base case remains continued market fragility. Large-scale accumulation by institutional funds may provide structural support, but it rarely prevents extended consolidation or further downside during capitulation environments.
Weekly Structure Shows Breakdown Below Key Support

From a trend perspective, Bitcoin is now trading below the 50-week moving average while approaching the 100-week average. Historically, a critical dynamic support during corrective phases. The 200-week average remains far below, indicating the long-term macro trend has not fully reversed, although intermediate momentum has clearly weakened.
Volume dynamics also matter here. The recent selloff shows rising participation compared with earlier consolidation periods, suggesting distribution rather than simple profit-taking. However, sustained high volume without further price acceleration downward could signal seller exhaustion.
If Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $70K area, downside risk toward the $60K-$55K zone remains plausible. Conversely, stabilization above current levels would indicate absorption, a necessary precursor for any meaningful recovery.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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Wichtige Punkte
Die Aktien von Wall Street steigen, aber der Nasdaq steuert auf einen wöchentlichen Verlust zu

Der Greenback fällt, während risikobehaftete Anlagen Zuspruch finden

Kryptowährungen erholen sich nach steilen Verlusten

Ölpreise steigen, während die Gespräche zwischen den USA und dem Iran beginnen

Von Sinéad Carew und Sophie Kiderlin

Von Sinéad Carew und Sophie Kiderlin

Der globale Aktienindex von MSCI stieg am Freitag um mehr als 1%, nachdem er in fünf der letzten sechs Sitzungen gefallen war, während Bitcoin ebenfalls versuchte, sich von einem starken Verkaufsdruck zu erholen, und die Spotpreise für Gold und Silber versuchten, einige verlorene Boden zurückzugewinnen.