OnChain Specter
On-chain & market structure insights. No hype. No signals. Just data & perspective. Not financial advice.
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Übersetzen
Trump Media Actively Managing Its Bitcoin Reserves
Trump Media moved about $174M in bitcoin across wallets a day after adding more BTC to its balance. A small portion was sent to Coinbase Prime Custody, while most remained under the same entity’s control.
This type of movement usually reflects treasury operations, not selling. Custody products are designed for long-term storage, not immediate trading.
Bitcoin’s price stayed flat despite the transfer, suggesting the market viewed it as neutral.
The key takeaway is institutional-style management of bitcoin, not speculative behavior.
Trump Media moved about $174M in bitcoin across wallets a day after adding more BTC to its balance. A small portion was sent to Coinbase Prime Custody, while most remained under the same entity’s control.
This type of movement usually reflects treasury operations, not selling. Custody products are designed for long-term storage, not immediate trading.
Bitcoin’s price stayed flat despite the transfer, suggesting the market viewed it as neutral.
The key takeaway is institutional-style management of bitcoin, not speculative behavior.
Übersetzen
🐳 Bitcoin Wallets Are Fewer - But Stronger
Something interesting is happening with $BTC.
📉 Since March 3, the number of wallets holding at least 1 BTC is down 2.2%. On the surface, that looks bearish.
📈 But here’s the twist:
Wallets with more than 1 BTC now hold 136,670 more coins.
🤔 In simple terms:
• Fewer wallets
• Bigger holders
• More accumulation at the top
This doesn’t look like panic selling. It looks like #Bitcoin slowly moving into stronger hands.
#BTC Price Analysis#
#Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?#
Something interesting is happening with $BTC.
📉 Since March 3, the number of wallets holding at least 1 BTC is down 2.2%. On the surface, that looks bearish.
📈 But here’s the twist:
Wallets with more than 1 BTC now hold 136,670 more coins.
🤔 In simple terms:
• Fewer wallets
• Bigger holders
• More accumulation at the top
This doesn’t look like panic selling. It looks like #Bitcoin slowly moving into stronger hands.
#BTC Price Analysis#
#Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?#
Übersetzen
Why Bitcoin’s December Range May Be Ending Soon
Bitcoin holding between $85,000 and $90,000 for most of December has less to do with sentiment and more to do with derivatives structure.
Heavy options exposure near spot forced market makers to hedge aggressively, buying dips and selling rallies. This behavior suppressed volatility and locked price into a narrow corridor, even as macro conditions improved and risk assets moved higher.
That dynamic changes as year-end options expire. With roughly $27B in open interest rolling off and a strong call bias still in place, the hedging pressure that pinned price fades quickly.
Implied volatility remains near monthly lows, suggesting the market is underpricing movement just as structural constraints are removed.
When positioning dominates price for weeks, the resolution often comes fast once those constraints disappear.
Bitcoin holding between $85,000 and $90,000 for most of December has less to do with sentiment and more to do with derivatives structure.
Heavy options exposure near spot forced market makers to hedge aggressively, buying dips and selling rallies. This behavior suppressed volatility and locked price into a narrow corridor, even as macro conditions improved and risk assets moved higher.
That dynamic changes as year-end options expire. With roughly $27B in open interest rolling off and a strong call bias still in place, the hedging pressure that pinned price fades quickly.
Implied volatility remains near monthly lows, suggesting the market is underpricing movement just as structural constraints are removed.
When positioning dominates price for weeks, the resolution often comes fast once those constraints disappear.
Übersetzen
Why Markets Are Choosing Gold and Copper Over Bitcoin in 2025
This year’s market behavior tells a clear story. Investors are prioritizing assets they can touch, store, and rely on when confidence in financial systems weakens or when growth demands real infrastructure.
Gold has surged as fears around fiscal sustainability, currency debasement, and political instability intensify. Copper has followed, driven by the AI boom, electrification, and global infrastructure build-out. Both assets represent tangibility in a world questioning paper promises.
Bitcoin, despite being positioned as both digital gold and high-end tech, has not captured either flow. Institutions have largely priced in ETFs and regulatory clarity, while sovereigns continue to favor gold as their hedge of choice.
This divergence does not necessarily mean Bitcoin has lost relevance. Historically, gold tends to lead during periods of monetary stress, with Bitcoin reacting later and often with greater volatility.
The current market is not rejecting crypto. It is demanding proof, patience, and timing.
This year’s market behavior tells a clear story. Investors are prioritizing assets they can touch, store, and rely on when confidence in financial systems weakens or when growth demands real infrastructure.
Gold has surged as fears around fiscal sustainability, currency debasement, and political instability intensify. Copper has followed, driven by the AI boom, electrification, and global infrastructure build-out. Both assets represent tangibility in a world questioning paper promises.
Bitcoin, despite being positioned as both digital gold and high-end tech, has not captured either flow. Institutions have largely priced in ETFs and regulatory clarity, while sovereigns continue to favor gold as their hedge of choice.
This divergence does not necessarily mean Bitcoin has lost relevance. Historically, gold tends to lead during periods of monetary stress, with Bitcoin reacting later and often with greater volatility.
The current market is not rejecting crypto. It is demanding proof, patience, and timing.
Übersetzen
🚨 $BTC Regime Score is flashing an early signal most traders miss…
Bull/Bear structure is compressing
Regime score hovering near the critical equilibrium zone (~16%)
This zone historically marks transitions, not trends
When the score stays below zero → distribution & downside volatility
Sustained break above the regime baseline → trend expansion & momentum return
Right now, $BTC is NOT trending it’s coiling
The longer the compression, the stronger the next impulse
Smart money doesn’t chase candles. They position before the regime flips.
#BTCPriceAnalysis #OnChainAnalysis #MarketRegime
Bull/Bear structure is compressing
Regime score hovering near the critical equilibrium zone (~16%)
This zone historically marks transitions, not trends
When the score stays below zero → distribution & downside volatility
Sustained break above the regime baseline → trend expansion & momentum return
Right now, $BTC is NOT trending it’s coiling
The longer the compression, the stronger the next impulse
Smart money doesn’t chase candles. They position before the regime flips.
#BTCPriceAnalysis #OnChainAnalysis #MarketRegime
Original ansehen
📊 Brasiliens größte Bank empfiehlt Bitcoin als Portfolio-Absicherung
Brasiliens größte Privatbank, Itaú Unibanco, rät Investoren, 1 %–3 % ihrer Portfolios in $BTC zu investieren und sieht es als ein Diversifizierungstool und nicht als spekulative Wette.
Laut Renato Eid, Leiter der Beta-Strategien bei Itaú Asset Management, sollte Bitcoin als ergänzendes Asset dienen, nicht als Kernbestand. Der Fokus liegt auf langfristiger Positionierung und nicht auf Marktzeitpunkten, wobei $BTC Renditen bietet, die weitgehend unkorreliert mit inländischen Wirtschaftszyklen sind.
Die Empfehlung steht in engem Zusammenhang mit Währungsrisiken. Nachdem der brasilianische Real Ende 2024 Rekordtiefstände erreicht hatte, hob Itaú die potenzielle Rolle von Bitcoin als teilweise Absicherung gegen Währungsvolatilität hervor, neben seiner Funktion als globaler Wertspeicher.
Itaús Anleitung verweist auf BITI11, einen in Brasilien gelisteten Bitcoin-ETF, der in Partnerschaft mit Galaxy Digital gestartet wurde. Der Fonds verwaltet derzeit über 115 Millionen Dollar und bietet lokalen Investoren regulierten BTC-Zugang und internationale Diversifizierung.
Dieser Schritt spiegelt einen breiteren institutionellen Wandel wider. Ähnliche Allokationsspannen wurden von globalen Banken vorgeschlagen, was darauf hindeutet, dass Bitcoin zunehmend nicht mehr als Außenseiter, sondern als strukturelle Portfolio-Komponente im Risikomanagement von Schwellenländern angesehen wird.
Frage: Wird eine 1 %–3 % $BTC-Allokation zur neuen konservativen Basislinie für institutionelle Portfolios?
#BTC #priceanalysis #bitcoin
#Brazil
Brasiliens größte Privatbank, Itaú Unibanco, rät Investoren, 1 %–3 % ihrer Portfolios in $BTC zu investieren und sieht es als ein Diversifizierungstool und nicht als spekulative Wette.
Laut Renato Eid, Leiter der Beta-Strategien bei Itaú Asset Management, sollte Bitcoin als ergänzendes Asset dienen, nicht als Kernbestand. Der Fokus liegt auf langfristiger Positionierung und nicht auf Marktzeitpunkten, wobei $BTC Renditen bietet, die weitgehend unkorreliert mit inländischen Wirtschaftszyklen sind.
Die Empfehlung steht in engem Zusammenhang mit Währungsrisiken. Nachdem der brasilianische Real Ende 2024 Rekordtiefstände erreicht hatte, hob Itaú die potenzielle Rolle von Bitcoin als teilweise Absicherung gegen Währungsvolatilität hervor, neben seiner Funktion als globaler Wertspeicher.
Itaús Anleitung verweist auf BITI11, einen in Brasilien gelisteten Bitcoin-ETF, der in Partnerschaft mit Galaxy Digital gestartet wurde. Der Fonds verwaltet derzeit über 115 Millionen Dollar und bietet lokalen Investoren regulierten BTC-Zugang und internationale Diversifizierung.
Dieser Schritt spiegelt einen breiteren institutionellen Wandel wider. Ähnliche Allokationsspannen wurden von globalen Banken vorgeschlagen, was darauf hindeutet, dass Bitcoin zunehmend nicht mehr als Außenseiter, sondern als strukturelle Portfolio-Komponente im Risikomanagement von Schwellenländern angesehen wird.
Frage: Wird eine 1 %–3 % $BTC-Allokation zur neuen konservativen Basislinie für institutionelle Portfolios?
#BTC #priceanalysis #bitcoin
#Brazil
Original ansehen
🇺🇸 Der US-Kongress pausiert bei der Krypto-Regulierung
In diesem Jahr gibt es kein neues Gesetz zur Marktstruktur für Kryptowährungen.
Keine Dringlichkeit. Kein Druck. Einfach Washington, wie es ist.
Für jetzt bewegen sich $BTC und der Kryptomarkt ohne neue Regeln weiter.
📊 Frage an die Händler:
Ist diese Verzögerung kurzfristig gut für Bitcoin, oder verzögert sie nur den echten Kurs?
#bitcoin #BTC #CryptoNews #BinanceSquar
In diesem Jahr gibt es kein neues Gesetz zur Marktstruktur für Kryptowährungen.
Keine Dringlichkeit. Kein Druck. Einfach Washington, wie es ist.
Für jetzt bewegen sich $BTC und der Kryptomarkt ohne neue Regeln weiter.
📊 Frage an die Händler:
Ist diese Verzögerung kurzfristig gut für Bitcoin, oder verzögert sie nur den echten Kurs?
#bitcoin #BTC #CryptoNews #BinanceSquar
Übersetzen
Why Holding Bitcoin Is No Longer Enough for Public Crypto Firms
Twenty One Capital (XXI) debuted on the NYSE with one of the largest corporate $BTC treasuries on record, but shares fell nearly 20% on day one. The market’s message was clear: simply holding Bitcoin is no longer enough to justify a premium valuation.
Key Takeaways:
XXI’s shares traded near the net value of its 43,500 $BTC , signaling fading mNAV premiums for Bitcoin-heavy equities.
Investors now demand visible revenue streams, operating leverage, and cash-flow narratives, not just asset exposure.
Market conditions, including SPAC fatigue and a recent BTC pullback, amplified skepticism toward balance-sheet-only valuations.
The shift highlights a broader trend: Bitcoin treasury firms must prove they can generate durable returns beyond price movements, rather than relying solely on crypto holdings. In this new environment, vision alone no longer commands investor confidence.
#BTCPriceAnalysis #Bitcoin2025 #BitcoinPricePredictions #WhatisBitcoinsnextmove
Twenty One Capital (XXI) debuted on the NYSE with one of the largest corporate $BTC treasuries on record, but shares fell nearly 20% on day one. The market’s message was clear: simply holding Bitcoin is no longer enough to justify a premium valuation.
Key Takeaways:
XXI’s shares traded near the net value of its 43,500 $BTC , signaling fading mNAV premiums for Bitcoin-heavy equities.
Investors now demand visible revenue streams, operating leverage, and cash-flow narratives, not just asset exposure.
Market conditions, including SPAC fatigue and a recent BTC pullback, amplified skepticism toward balance-sheet-only valuations.
The shift highlights a broader trend: Bitcoin treasury firms must prove they can generate durable returns beyond price movements, rather than relying solely on crypto holdings. In this new environment, vision alone no longer commands investor confidence.
#BTCPriceAnalysis #Bitcoin2025 #BitcoinPricePredictions #WhatisBitcoinsnextmove
Übersetzen
Bitcoin doesn’t move on hype. It moves on patience.
Most people lose in crypto not because they’re wrong,
but because they can’t wait.
They buy late.
They sell early.
They panic on red days.
The market rewards patience and discipline.
Are you trading… or just reacting?
Most people lose in crypto not because they’re wrong,
but because they can’t wait.
They buy late.
They sell early.
They panic on red days.
The market rewards patience and discipline.
Are you trading… or just reacting?
Übersetzen
Short-term $BTC holders are feeling the pressure.
Historically, these moments often precede sharp reversals.
Patience remains the edge.
#bitcoin #BTCPriceAnalysis
Historically, these moments often precede sharp reversals.
Patience remains the edge.
#bitcoin #BTCPriceAnalysis
Übersetzen
Markets don’t move on conviction.
They move on liquidity.
Across cycles, the pattern is familiar:
volatility compresses, participation fades, narratives quiet down.
That’s usually when positioning happens — not when headlines are loud or consensus feels comfortable.
By the time conviction becomes widespread, the structural move is often already underway.
This isn’t a call on direction.
It’s an observation of conditions.
Structure comes first.
Narratives follow later.
Not financial advice.
#bitcoin #BTC #Marketstructure #Crypto
They move on liquidity.
Across cycles, the pattern is familiar:
volatility compresses, participation fades, narratives quiet down.
That’s usually when positioning happens — not when headlines are loud or consensus feels comfortable.
By the time conviction becomes widespread, the structural move is often already underway.
This isn’t a call on direction.
It’s an observation of conditions.
Structure comes first.
Narratives follow later.
Not financial advice.
#bitcoin #BTC #Marketstructure #Crypto
Übersetzen
Bitwise: $1.3M Bitcoin by 2035 — a “conservative” case
Bitwise’s CIO shared a valuation model projecting BTC at $1.3M by 2035, assuming Bitcoin’s share of gold’s market cap grows from 9% to 25%.
With gold itself expected to rise over the coming decade, the old $1M per BTC target is starting to look less aggressive than many assume.
The question isn’t whether this is possible —
it’s when markets begin treating this as realistic long-term financial planning.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
#bitcoin #BTC #MarketAnalysis
Bitwise’s CIO shared a valuation model projecting BTC at $1.3M by 2035, assuming Bitcoin’s share of gold’s market cap grows from 9% to 25%.
With gold itself expected to rise over the coming decade, the old $1M per BTC target is starting to look less aggressive than many assume.
The question isn’t whether this is possible —
it’s when markets begin treating this as realistic long-term financial planning.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
#bitcoin #BTC #MarketAnalysis
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