FarooqZia

Im Februar 2026, als #bitcoin von einem brutalen Crash erschüttert wird – am 5. Februar auf $60.000 fallend, bevor er wieder auf über $68.000 ansteigt – taucht die alte Debatte erneut auf: Sind die berühmten Vierjahreszyklen von Bitcoin noch am Leben oder haben sie endlich ihr Ende gefunden? Seit über einem Jahrzehnt diktieren diese Zyklen die Boom-und-Bust-Muster der Kryptowährung, die untrennbar mit ihren Halbierungsereignissen verbunden sind. Doch mit der institutionellen Akzeptanz, ETFs und sich reifenden Märkten, die die Landschaft umgestalten, sind die Analysten gespalten. Einige erklären den Zyklus für "tot", sich in eine nachhaltigere Wachstumsbahn entwickelt, während andere unheimliche Ähnlichkeiten zu vergangenen Bären sehen und vorschlagen, dass der Rhythmus bestehen bleibt. Dieser Artikel befasst sich mit den Mechanismen dieser Zyklen, ihrer historischen Erfolgsbilanz und ob 2026 ihre Evolution oder ihr Aussterben markiert, gestützt auf aktuelle Daten und Experteneinsichten.

Bitcoin's Violent Reset Just Compressed an Entire Bear Phase Into Weeks
$BTC Bitcoin's Shock Drop Just Compressed an Entire Bear Phase Into Weeks And Most People Missed the Signal
Let me be honest with you for a second.
If this drop caught you off guard, it wasn't because the market did something unexpected. It's because the market did what it always does, just way faster than anyone was mentally prepared for.
That's the real story here. Not the red candles. Not the liquidation numbers. The speed.
The Playbook Hasn't Changed. The Clock Has.
Strip everything back to basics and Bitcoin is still running the same four-year engine it always has. Halving in 2024 laid the groundwork. 2025 was supposed to bring expansion. And it did, until the market reminded everyone that expansion doesn't mean straight up.
What caught people sleeping was the tempo shift. Previous cycles gave you months of slow grinding pain before the real shakeout hit. This time? The market decided slow wasn't going to cut it anymore.
Think about what actually happened. We saw a double top pattern form around $109K and $125K that mirrors the $60K to $69K structure from last cycle almost perfectly. Price lost the 50-day moving average, chopped around the 100, and now the 200-day moving average is sitting there like a gravity well pulling everything toward it.
If that pattern completes the way history says it should, then somewhere between $50K and $60K becomes the zone where the next real foundation gets built. Not because Bitcoin failed. Because cycles breathe. They expand and they contract. That's literally how this works.
Why the Market Chose Violence This Time
Here's something most people won't tell you straight. The slow bleed model is dead. It doesn't work on this generation of traders anymore.
Back in 2018 and even through chunks of 2022, the market could grind people down over months. Slow drip torture. Death by a thousand red candles. People would gradually lose hope, close their apps, walk away defeated.
That psychology doesn't hit the same way anymore. Too many people have seen it, survived it, and built tolerance to it. So the market adapted. Instead of slow pain, it chose fast violence.
A $2.4 billion liquidation event in a single day isn't a glitch. It's the market doing in 24 hours what used to take three months. Leverage gets flushed. Weak positions get vaporized. And the playing field resets at breakneck speed.
Add institutional money, deeper ETF liquidity, and algorithmic trading into the mix and you get cascade mechanics that simply didn't exist in earlier cycles. The infrastructure of the market has changed even though the underlying cycle hasn't.
The result is what I'd call a compressed reset. Same outcome as a slow bear. Fraction of the time.
What I'm Actually Doing With My Own Money
I could sit here and give you a bunch of theoretical frameworks and pretend I'm above the emotional side of this. But that would be dishonest and you'd see through it anyway.
Here's what's really happening on my end.
I haven't changed a single name in my portfolio. It's still Bitcoin taking the largest allocation, Ethereum right behind it, and Solana as the higher-volatility satellite position. Same three. Same structure. Same conviction.
What changed is the pace of accumulation. When the selloff picked up speed, I matched it. My daily buys roughly tripled compared to what I was running during calmer stretches. Not because I think I've found the bottom. I haven't. Nobody has. But because I know from experience that the market doesn't send you a polite invitation when it's time to buy.
If price pushes deeper into the low $60K range, I'm prepared to lean in harder. Not in one lump shot. That's gambling dressed up as strategy. But with more weight behind each daily entry than I'd normally commit.
The logic is straightforward. When markets drop this hard and this fast, the recovery tends to snap back with equal aggression. The people who were accumulating during the fear don't just do well. They tend to dramatically outperform the ones who waited for perfect confirmation that the bottom was in.
By the time confirmation arrives, a huge chunk of the recovery has already happened.
The Part Nobody Wants to Hear
Every cycle has a moment where it tests whether your conviction is real or just something you say online when prices are green. This is that moment.
The market applies pressure until something breaks. Either the price structure breaks and finds a new floor, or your discipline breaks and you sell into the fear. One of those two things has to give. And the market has infinite patience.
This isn't about courage. I want to be clear about that. Buying into a crash doesn't make you brave. It makes you structured. There's a difference. Brave people act on instinct. Structured people act on a plan that was written before the chaos started.
If you don't have a plan right now, specific levels, specific allocations, specific rules for when you deploy and when you sit on your hands, then the market is going to make your decisions for you. And the market does not have your best interests in mind.
So Where Does That Leave Us
Exactly where the cycle says we should be. In the uncomfortable middle ground between peak euphoria and real capitulation. The zone where most people either make the decisions that define their next few years of financial life or they make the mistake of letting emotion drive the car.
The framework hasn't failed. The speed just increased. And if you can accept that the destination is the same even though the road got rougher and faster, then you already have an edge over the majority of participants who are still processing what just happened.
Build position while others debate whether it's over.
Stay structured while others react emotionally.
And when the expansion phase eventually kicks in, because it always does, you'll understand exactly why these weeks mattered more than any green candle ever could.
The question isn't whether #bitcoin recovers. The question is whether you'll have a meaningful position when it does.

📉 Bitcoin (BTC) — trading around $65,700, down sharply from recent highs.

📉 Ethereum (ETH) — around $1,930, also lower and in a bearish trend.

📉 Solana (SOL) — near $79, significantly below earlier cycle peaks.
🧨 Market Overview — February 2026

📌 Major Downturn & Sentiment

The crypto market has been in a significant downturn, with Bitcoin losing about half its value from late-2025 highs (~$125,000) to around $64K now — its lowest in over a year. Ether has also dropped sharply.

This decline has wiped trillions off the global crypto market cap, erasing much of the post-election rally and broadly shaking investor confidence.
Liquidations of leveraged crypto positions have added to volatility.
📉 Broader Market & Impact
Major crypto companies like Gemini announced layoffs and strategic retreats amid the slump, showing real pressure on the industry.
Risk assets overall (including tech stocks) have seen sell-offs that often correlate with crypto weakness.
📊 Sentiment & Risk
Fear & Greed sentiment is tilted toward “fear”, reflecting cautious or negative sentiment among traders and investors. (Multiple recent reports describe weak sentiment across assets.)
Technical supports (like BTC holding above key price floors) are being tested — if broken, deeper declines could unfold.
⚖️ Macro Drivers

Regulatory scrutiny and uncertainty continue to be a theme influencing prices.
Macro headwinds such as possible tighter monetary policy and geopolitical risks are pushing risk-off behavior across markets.
🧠 Long-Term Views (contrasting)
Some strategists argue that bitcoin could look attractive longer term if miners adjust production costs and sentiment improves — but this is a longer-horizon thesis, not near-term price support.
📌 Key Takeaways
Current condition:
✔️ Broad bearish trend across major cryptos
✔️ High volatility and large price drawdowns
✔️ Market sentiment cautious to negative
✔️ Ongoing liquidations and risk-off environment
Risks:
• Continued sell-offs if support levels break
• Regulatory and macro uncertainty
• Reduced institutional appetite in the short term
Possible positives (long term):
• Some analysts see value at lower price levels
• Periods of “extreme fear” can precede eventual recovery