Some say that the current candlestick pattern of Bitcoin is very similar to that of 2022, $BTC .
In 2022, a typical "bull trap" appeared, where there was a rebound in a downtrend, followed by a continued decline.
I believe that in addition to the candlesticks, the macro environment should also be considered.
Now, unlike in 2022, U.S. regulatory policies are favorable for cryptocurrency, interest rates will decrease in 2026, and monetary policy is becoming more accommodative. Concerns about inflation also benefit Bitcoin, and ETFs bring a large influx of capital. The wealth of the Trump family is deeply tied to cryptocurrency.
Therefore, this time, the probability of continuing to decline is only 50%.
Although a 50% probability seems to say nothing. But if we only look at the candlestick pattern, the obvious downtrend allows us to judge that the probability of decline is 70%.
Why is there still a 50% probability of decline? Because there is a possibility:
Although the current macro environment is favorable for Bitcoin, the buying funds are gradually entering. At this time, short sellers may massively short the market, pushing the price down when the inflow of buying funds is relatively slow. #比特币 $BTC
In 2022, a typical "bull trap" appeared, where there was a rebound in a downtrend, followed by a continued decline.
I believe that in addition to the candlesticks, the macro environment should also be considered.
Now, unlike in 2022, U.S. regulatory policies are favorable for cryptocurrency, interest rates will decrease in 2026, and monetary policy is becoming more accommodative. Concerns about inflation also benefit Bitcoin, and ETFs bring a large influx of capital. The wealth of the Trump family is deeply tied to cryptocurrency.
Therefore, this time, the probability of continuing to decline is only 50%.
Although a 50% probability seems to say nothing. But if we only look at the candlestick pattern, the obvious downtrend allows us to judge that the probability of decline is 70%.
Why is there still a 50% probability of decline? Because there is a possibility:
Although the current macro environment is favorable for Bitcoin, the buying funds are gradually entering. At this time, short sellers may massively short the market, pushing the price down when the inflow of buying funds is relatively slow. #比特币 $BTC