At three in the morning, Old K sent me a screenshot with a huge head and shoulders drawn on it.
"Brother, if this pattern completes, the next stop is probably 50,000."
I stared at the screen for three seconds and replied, "If you send that out, the comments section will be arguing until dawn."
But I know he is not trying to scare anyone; he is talking about a possibility.
The current Bitcoin situation is indeed a bit subtle.
In terms of shape, if we plot it on a logarithmic scale, this structure from last year to this year indeed looks like a gigantic head and shoulders - the left shoulder in March last year, the head in December last year, and the right shoulder in January this year. The neckline is around 60,000, and it has already broken.
How to calculate the theoretical target after breaking the level? The distance from the neck line to the top is subtracted from the neck line; when converted using a logarithmic scale, it is approximately around 50,000.
If there is another buffer zone, it would be in the area of 45000 to 52000.
Of course, technical analysis is treated as the Bible by believers and as a joke by non-believers. But one thing is objective — the market is indeed in a 'window period' after the halving, with liquidity dried up, and sentiment is low; both bulls and bears are waiting for a direction.
If there is indeed a round of decline reaching 50,000, what would that scene look like?
The entire network is wailing, the death theory of Bitcoin is flooding the screen, leverage is wiped out, and the panic index has fallen to single digits. Just like in November 2022, when it fell to the point where no one dared to buy, that's when the bottom comes.
So the question arises: if Bitcoin really falls to 50,000, will you cut losses and leave, or sell everything to take over?
My answer is — if it really gets to that position, I will buy, but I won't go all in.
Because the bottom is not a point, it's a range. Enter in batches, leave some room, and wait for right-side confirmation. This is the way to survive in this market.
Let's discuss in the comments: do you think Bitcoin will go to 50,000 this time?