It is uncertain how long Trump can take down the small Khamenei he just took over today, but even if it continues as a war of attrition, the United States will not be at a significant disadvantage.
In the Gulf War of 1990, oil prices rose for 3 months.
In fact, Iraq attacked Kuwait in July 1990 and occupied Kuwait by early August. Then there was a gap period.
In January 1991, the United States mobilized, possibly because the U.S. strength was too strong, causing oil prices to plummet. The war ended in February.
One can see that the CPI index in the U.S. at that time had a slight increase, but it was only slight.
If the war lasts too long, Middle Eastern countries can find ways to open up new oil export routes; in fact, there were already some other oil paths, but they are just more expensive.
Iraq and Kuwait are basically unable to export.
Saudi Arabia can go west, from the Red Sea north, through the Suez Canal to Europe, which is expensive. Going south is not possible, as there are Houthi armed forces to the south, who are also allies of the Iranian regime.
The UAE is currently the most optimistic, as it can go directly east, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, heading east to Asia, and further west to Europe.
If the war lasts a long time, these routes can strengthen construction and cooperation, reducing costs.
Even Iraq had a discarded route to the Mediterranean in the early part of the last century, which could potentially be restored.
Therefore, the surge in oil prices may primarily be short-term.
In the Gulf War of 1990, oil prices rose for 3 months.
In fact, Iraq attacked Kuwait in July 1990 and occupied Kuwait by early August. Then there was a gap period.
In January 1991, the United States mobilized, possibly because the U.S. strength was too strong, causing oil prices to plummet. The war ended in February.
One can see that the CPI index in the U.S. at that time had a slight increase, but it was only slight.
If the war lasts too long, Middle Eastern countries can find ways to open up new oil export routes; in fact, there were already some other oil paths, but they are just more expensive.
Iraq and Kuwait are basically unable to export.
Saudi Arabia can go west, from the Red Sea north, through the Suez Canal to Europe, which is expensive. Going south is not possible, as there are Houthi armed forces to the south, who are also allies of the Iranian regime.
The UAE is currently the most optimistic, as it can go directly east, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, heading east to Asia, and further west to Europe.
If the war lasts a long time, these routes can strengthen construction and cooperation, reducing costs.
Even Iraq had a discarded route to the Mediterranean in the early part of the last century, which could potentially be restored.
Therefore, the surge in oil prices may primarily be short-term.