TVBee
数据分析/宏观/投研
纯原创拒绝人云亦云
Open Trade
USD1 Holder
Frequent Trader
6.9 Years
210 Following
8.3K+ Followers
7.0K+ Liked
731 Shared
Posts
Portfolio
All
Quotes
Videos
Live
These people must have seen "Romance of the Three Kingdoms"!
On February 28, after the death of old Khamenei, the new Khamenei has not shown his face.
Even after being elected as the Supreme Leader on March 8, he has not appeared or made a sound.
There are rumors that he has been disfigured, that he has lost a leg, that he has gone blind, that he has had a mental breakdown... there are also rumors that he is a double...
Today, it's good, the rumor is that he has died...
But we can't just watch like bystanders. It's like in "Romance of the Three Kingdoms", when Zhuge Liang launched his last northern expedition, Sima Yi knew that Zhuge Liang's supplies were not as abundant as his, so he refused to fight, wanting to outlast Zhuge Liang. So Zhuge Liang sent him women's clothing, hoping to provoke him into battle.
The Iranian side also knows that Trump is scheduled to visit China from late March to early April, and there will be a midterm election in the second half of the year, hoping for a quick resolution, so they want to drag it out. On the other side, they naturally want to force the new Khamenei to show himself or let his team reveal their flaws.
Everyone has seen "Romance of the Three Kingdoms"!
On February 28, after the death of old Khamenei, the new Khamenei has not shown his face.
Even after being elected as the Supreme Leader on March 8, he has not appeared or made a sound.
There are rumors that he has been disfigured, that he has lost a leg, that he has gone blind, that he has had a mental breakdown... there are also rumors that he is a double...
Today, it's good, the rumor is that he has died...
But we can't just watch like bystanders. It's like in "Romance of the Three Kingdoms", when Zhuge Liang launched his last northern expedition, Sima Yi knew that Zhuge Liang's supplies were not as abundant as his, so he refused to fight, wanting to outlast Zhuge Liang. So Zhuge Liang sent him women's clothing, hoping to provoke him into battle.
The Iranian side also knows that Trump is scheduled to visit China from late March to early April, and there will be a midterm election in the second half of the year, hoping for a quick resolution, so they want to drag it out. On the other side, they naturally want to force the new Khamenei to show himself or let his team reveal their flaws.
Everyone has seen "Romance of the Three Kingdoms"!
In addition to RSI, the USDT price also has some patterns during fluctuations.
USDT has been in a discount state for a long time since around November last year.
Only from November 28 to December 16 did the USDT price stay above 1 dollar.
On January 6 and January 15, the price briefly approached 1 dollar.
It reached its highest value of 1.0004 on February 25, then fluctuated near 1 dollar.
Several peaks in the USDT price generally correspond to peaks in BTC. Of course, the peaks in USDT price might come a bit earlier, as funds need to enter the market before flowing into BTC.
USDT has been in a discount state for a long time since around November last year.
Only from November 28 to December 16 did the USDT price stay above 1 dollar.
On January 6 and January 15, the price briefly approached 1 dollar.
It reached its highest value of 1.0004 on February 25, then fluctuated near 1 dollar.
Several peaks in the USDT price generally correspond to peaks in BTC. Of course, the peaks in USDT price might come a bit earlier, as funds need to enter the market before flowing into BTC.
TVBee
·
--
This volatile market has some patterns
Since the beginning of this year, except for the breakthrough on March 5, which was a bit high, the 4-hour RSI (6) basically starts to decline whenever it reaches around 81. BTC may be at its peak or may rise a few more hours before peaking.
Yesterday was no exception.
Since the beginning of this year, except for the breakthrough on March 5, which was a bit high, the 4-hour RSI (6) basically starts to decline whenever it reaches around 81. BTC may be at its peak or may rise a few more hours before peaking.
Yesterday was no exception.
This volatile market has some patterns
Since the beginning of this year, except for the breakthrough on March 5, which was a bit high, the 4-hour RSI (6) basically starts to decline whenever it reaches around 81. BTC may be at its peak or may rise a few more hours before peaking.
Yesterday was no exception.
Since the beginning of this year, except for the breakthrough on March 5, which was a bit high, the 4-hour RSI (6) basically starts to decline whenever it reaches around 81. BTC may be at its peak or may rise a few more hours before peaking.
Yesterday was no exception.
It is unrealistic to build a canal in Dubai that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.
Today, I don't know who spread the rumor that Dubai is going to build a grand canal, but the eastern coast here is almost entirely the Hajar Mountains.
The Hajar Mountains are rocky, and there are no major rivers in this area to utilize, so it is very difficult to build a canal through the Hajar Mountains.
However, there is an oil transportation pipeline from southwest Abu Dhabi to Fujairah—the Habshan-Fujairah Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP).
The throughput of ADCOP can transport about 1.5 to 1.8 million barrels of oil per day, which is less than 10% of the Strait of Hormuz, but in the current environment, it is indeed very important.
Therefore, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would significantly reduce oil supply, but it would not completely cut off oil exports from the Middle East.
Today, I don't know who spread the rumor that Dubai is going to build a grand canal, but the eastern coast here is almost entirely the Hajar Mountains.
The Hajar Mountains are rocky, and there are no major rivers in this area to utilize, so it is very difficult to build a canal through the Hajar Mountains.
However, there is an oil transportation pipeline from southwest Abu Dhabi to Fujairah—the Habshan-Fujairah Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP).
The throughput of ADCOP can transport about 1.5 to 1.8 million barrels of oil per day, which is less than 10% of the Strait of Hormuz, but in the current environment, it is indeed very important.
Therefore, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would significantly reduce oil supply, but it would not completely cut off oil exports from the Middle East.
Don't worry about Yi Lihua! A return to the bull market is impossible.
Comparing the S&P 500 and BTC, the trend has been quite clear since last October.
In the first stage, BTC followed the decline of the US stock market.
In the second stage, the US stock market rebounded while BTC fluctuated.
In the third stage, the US stock market couldn't rise, and BTC fell first as a sign of respect.
In the fourth stage, the US stock market declined, and BTC fluctuated.
Even if the US stock market goes up, BTC may not necessarily follow. Moreover, the US stock market is still in a downward channel, and it is uncertain whether it has finished declining.
When the US stock market rises, BTC does not follow,
When the US stock market falls, BTC leads.
Therefore, unless the US stock market and the larger trend have finished declining, it is very difficult for BTC to show a substantial upward movement; at most, it will just fluctuate upward, and this upward fluctuation should not lead to the liquidation of Yi Lihua's short position.
Of course, if the fluctuation lasts a long time, grinding the funding rate is another matter.
Comparing the S&P 500 and BTC, the trend has been quite clear since last October.
In the first stage, BTC followed the decline of the US stock market.
In the second stage, the US stock market rebounded while BTC fluctuated.
In the third stage, the US stock market couldn't rise, and BTC fell first as a sign of respect.
In the fourth stage, the US stock market declined, and BTC fluctuated.
Even if the US stock market goes up, BTC may not necessarily follow. Moreover, the US stock market is still in a downward channel, and it is uncertain whether it has finished declining.
When the US stock market rises, BTC does not follow,
When the US stock market falls, BTC leads.
Therefore, unless the US stock market and the larger trend have finished declining, it is very difficult for BTC to show a substantial upward movement; at most, it will just fluctuate upward, and this upward fluctuation should not lead to the liquidation of Yi Lihua's short position.
Of course, if the fluctuation lasts a long time, grinding the funding rate is another matter.
Everyone should have the ability to step out of the spotlight and focus on the macro!
I have a friend A:
The single trade yield was very good, but just last year when Trump raised tariffs, it all went wrong at once.
The technical analysis framework is correct, but it should be appropriately combined with the macro.
I also have a friend B:
The MEME yield was very good, skilled in analyzing narratives and on-chain data. But he didn't pay attention to the bear market and the downward trend of MEME, and lost everything this year.
Focusing on narratives and data is correct, but it should be suitable to combine with the overall trend of the sector.
Yes, I have many friends who have lost money, let me summarize various laws...🥺🥺🥺
I have a friend A:
The single trade yield was very good, but just last year when Trump raised tariffs, it all went wrong at once.
The technical analysis framework is correct, but it should be appropriately combined with the macro.
I also have a friend B:
The MEME yield was very good, skilled in analyzing narratives and on-chain data. But he didn't pay attention to the bear market and the downward trend of MEME, and lost everything this year.
Focusing on narratives and data is correct, but it should be suitable to combine with the overall trend of the sector.
Yes, I have many friends who have lost money, let me summarize various laws...🥺🥺🥺
Streamlined Version:
The internet bubble of 2000 is being replayed, not in the AI sector, but in Web3.
The self-indulgence on the supply side has triggered the bubble, while the application on the demand side is lacking.
The U.S. stock market has a bubble and will correct, but it is unlikely to crash like in 2000.
A correction in the U.S. stock market, rather than a crash, has a moderate negative impact on BTC.
However, altcoins will go through a relatively long period of sifting the real from the fake, similar to the internet bubble of 2000. Currently, since the end of 2024, altcoins have overall dropped by about 15 months, but this is not the end.
Some altcoins may have already hit the bottom, while others do not have a bottom.
The internet bubble of 2000 is being replayed, not in the AI sector, but in Web3.
The self-indulgence on the supply side has triggered the bubble, while the application on the demand side is lacking.
The U.S. stock market has a bubble and will correct, but it is unlikely to crash like in 2000.
A correction in the U.S. stock market, rather than a crash, has a moderate negative impact on BTC.
However, altcoins will go through a relatively long period of sifting the real from the fake, similar to the internet bubble of 2000. Currently, since the end of 2024, altcoins have overall dropped by about 15 months, but this is not the end.
Some altcoins may have already hit the bottom, while others do not have a bottom.
TVBee
·
--
The true repetition of the internet bubble is Web3, not AI
Both stock market and cryptocurrency players are worried that AI will repeat the 2000 internet bubble, but in fact, Web3 is the true repetition of the internet bubble.
┈➤Bubble: Supply-side self-indulgence, demand is lackluster
During the internet bubble phase in 2000, funds were self-indulging on the supply side, with many internet listed companies having no profits or cash flow at all, yet stock prices skyrocketed.
On the other hand, there are very few internet applications on the demand side... Before 2000, there was no Douyin or Kuaishou, no Alibaba or JD, and no WeChat.
At that time, the mainstream internet applications were only the prototype of QQ, OICQ, chat software like MSN, download tools like Internet Express and Net Ant, information platforms like Yahoo, NetEase, and Sohu, basic applications like Google search and email, and early-stage e-commerce like Amazon and eBay, which had very few users.
┈➤Bubble: Supply-side self-indulgence, demand is lackluster
During the internet bubble phase in 2000, funds were self-indulging on the supply side, with many internet listed companies having no profits or cash flow at all, yet stock prices skyrocketed.
On the other hand, there are very few internet applications on the demand side... Before 2000, there was no Douyin or Kuaishou, no Alibaba or JD, and no WeChat.
At that time, the mainstream internet applications were only the prototype of QQ, OICQ, chat software like MSN, download tools like Internet Express and Net Ant, information platforms like Yahoo, NetEase, and Sohu, basic applications like Google search and email, and early-stage e-commerce like Amazon and eBay, which had very few users.
The true repetition of the internet bubble is Web3, not AI
Both stock market and cryptocurrency players are worried that AI will repeat the 2000 internet bubble, but in fact, Web3 is the true repetition of the internet bubble.
┈➤Bubble: Supply-side self-indulgence, demand is lackluster
During the internet bubble phase in 2000, funds were self-indulging on the supply side, with many internet listed companies having no profits or cash flow at all, yet stock prices skyrocketed.
On the other hand, there are very few internet applications on the demand side... Before 2000, there was no Douyin or Kuaishou, no Alibaba or JD, and no WeChat.
At that time, the mainstream internet applications were only the prototype of QQ, OICQ, chat software like MSN, download tools like Internet Express and Net Ant, information platforms like Yahoo, NetEase, and Sohu, basic applications like Google search and email, and early-stage e-commerce like Amazon and eBay, which had very few users.
┈➤Bubble: Supply-side self-indulgence, demand is lackluster
During the internet bubble phase in 2000, funds were self-indulging on the supply side, with many internet listed companies having no profits or cash flow at all, yet stock prices skyrocketed.
On the other hand, there are very few internet applications on the demand side... Before 2000, there was no Douyin or Kuaishou, no Alibaba or JD, and no WeChat.
At that time, the mainstream internet applications were only the prototype of QQ, OICQ, chat software like MSN, download tools like Internet Express and Net Ant, information platforms like Yahoo, NetEase, and Sohu, basic applications like Google search and email, and early-stage e-commerce like Amazon and eBay, which had very few users.
It is necessary to popularize a truth! The year-on-year CPI compared to the previous value is not very significant!
┈┈➤ The time ratio data is divided into three types
╰┈✦ The first type, base data
This means taking a historical point in time as the basis and comparing everything else to this point.
Assuming that the only product in America is potatoes, if the price in September 1981 is taken as the basis, at that time potatoes cost 0.2 yuan per pound. The price index at that time was 100.
Now, potatoes cost 1 yuan per pound, which means it has increased 5 times; now the price index is 500.
╰┈✦ The second type, year-on-year data
Compared to the same time last year.
Still assuming that the only product in America is potatoes, suppose in February 2025 potatoes cost 0.9765 yuan per pound, and in February 2026 potatoes cost 1 yuan per pound, an increase of 2.4%.
So the year-on-year CPI for February is 2.4%.
╰┈✦╰┈✦ The third type, month-on-month data
Compared to the previous value.
Still assuming that the only product in America is potatoes. Suppose in January 2026 potatoes cost 0.998 yuan per pound, and in February 2026 potatoes cost 1 yuan per pound, an increase of 0.2%.
So the month-on-month CPI for February is 0.2%.
┈┈➤ Comparison of ratios
╰┈✦ The year-on-year CPI compared to the previous value is not very significant
For example, the year-on-year CPI for January might be very high for January 2025, but the prices in 2026 are normal, so the CPI calculated for January 2026 will be relatively low.
If the prices in February 2025 have fallen, and the prices in February 2026 are also normal, then the CPI calculated for February 2026 will also be normal; however, compared to the previous value, which is the CPI for January 2026, it will appear to have increased. In reality, the prices in 2026 are fine; the problem lies with 2025.
╰┈✦ The month-on-month CPI can compare seasonally adjusted data
The month-on-month CPI, which is month-on-month data, is comparable. But the premise is that the data is seasonally adjusted.
Seasonal adjustment, seasonal adjustment.
Because every year has cycles. For example, summer in America is a peak season for tourism and consumption, which may cause the price of the same product to be slightly higher, and the CPI to be slightly higher as well. The CPI for September may not be directly comparable to that of July, and requires seasonal adjustment.
┈┈➤ The time ratio data is divided into three types
╰┈✦ The first type, base data
This means taking a historical point in time as the basis and comparing everything else to this point.
Assuming that the only product in America is potatoes, if the price in September 1981 is taken as the basis, at that time potatoes cost 0.2 yuan per pound. The price index at that time was 100.
Now, potatoes cost 1 yuan per pound, which means it has increased 5 times; now the price index is 500.
╰┈✦ The second type, year-on-year data
Compared to the same time last year.
Still assuming that the only product in America is potatoes, suppose in February 2025 potatoes cost 0.9765 yuan per pound, and in February 2026 potatoes cost 1 yuan per pound, an increase of 2.4%.
So the year-on-year CPI for February is 2.4%.
╰┈✦╰┈✦ The third type, month-on-month data
Compared to the previous value.
Still assuming that the only product in America is potatoes. Suppose in January 2026 potatoes cost 0.998 yuan per pound, and in February 2026 potatoes cost 1 yuan per pound, an increase of 0.2%.
So the month-on-month CPI for February is 0.2%.
┈┈➤ Comparison of ratios
╰┈✦ The year-on-year CPI compared to the previous value is not very significant
For example, the year-on-year CPI for January might be very high for January 2025, but the prices in 2026 are normal, so the CPI calculated for January 2026 will be relatively low.
If the prices in February 2025 have fallen, and the prices in February 2026 are also normal, then the CPI calculated for February 2026 will also be normal; however, compared to the previous value, which is the CPI for January 2026, it will appear to have increased. In reality, the prices in 2026 are fine; the problem lies with 2025.
╰┈✦ The month-on-month CPI can compare seasonally adjusted data
The month-on-month CPI, which is month-on-month data, is comparable. But the premise is that the data is seasonally adjusted.
Seasonal adjustment, seasonal adjustment.
Because every year has cycles. For example, summer in America is a peak season for tourism and consumption, which may cause the price of the same product to be slightly higher, and the CPI to be slightly higher as well. The CPI for September may not be directly comparable to that of July, and requires seasonal adjustment.
TVBee
·
--
It can only be said that the CPI is not bearish
The CPI data fully meets expectations, but when considering the consumer confidence index and wage data, it may not be very accurate.
Perhaps the U.S. authorities do not want to see a bearish CPI alongside the war, or it could just be a statistical error.
BTC temporarily rebounded to above 70,000, and the S&P 500 opened with a slight gap upward.
Overall, it can only be said that the CPI in February is not bearish, and it cannot be said to be bullish either.
The CPI data fully meets expectations, but when considering the consumer confidence index and wage data, it may not be very accurate.
Perhaps the U.S. authorities do not want to see a bearish CPI alongside the war, or it could just be a statistical error.
BTC temporarily rebounded to above 70,000, and the S&P 500 opened with a slight gap upward.
Overall, it can only be said that the CPI in February is not bearish, and it cannot be said to be bullish either.
It can only be said that the CPI is not bearish
The CPI data fully meets expectations, but when considering the consumer confidence index and wage data, it may not be very accurate.
Perhaps the U.S. authorities do not want to see a bearish CPI alongside the war, or it could just be a statistical error.
BTC temporarily rebounded to above 70,000, and the S&P 500 opened with a slight gap upward.
Overall, it can only be said that the CPI in February is not bearish, and it cannot be said to be bullish either.
The CPI data fully meets expectations, but when considering the consumer confidence index and wage data, it may not be very accurate.
Perhaps the U.S. authorities do not want to see a bearish CPI alongside the war, or it could just be a statistical error.
BTC temporarily rebounded to above 70,000, and the S&P 500 opened with a slight gap upward.
Overall, it can only be said that the CPI in February is not bearish, and it cannot be said to be bullish either.
TVBee
·
--
Don't rush to open more
The consumer confidence index rebounded in February,
February's year-on-year and month-on-month wage rates exceeded expectations,
WTI crude oil has already started to rise in February.
Wednesday's CPI data is very likely to be less than ideal.
The consumer confidence index rebounded in February,
February's year-on-year and month-on-month wage rates exceeded expectations,
WTI crude oil has already started to rise in February.
Wednesday's CPI data is very likely to be less than ideal.
Will history rhyme again?
In 2022, after BTC fell to 26000, it fluctuated for 1 month (around May 12 to June 11) before falling again to 17000.
In this round, after BTC fell to 80000, it fluctuated for 2 months (around November 21 to January 20) before dropping to 60000.
The characteristic of this round is that the decline is fast, but it may fluctuate for a longer period.
After BTC fell to 17000 in 2022, it had a mild upward fluctuation for 2 months (around June 18 to August 19) before starting to decline again.
This is a period where the short to medium-term moving averages are intertwined below, waiting for the long-term moving averages to converge.
Currently, after this round of BTC reaching 60000, it has fluctuated for 1 month from February 6 until now. The next likely scenario is still a fluctuating market.
At present, if there are no black swan events, it may resemble the upward fluctuations of 2022.
However, tomorrow's CPI data may be negative, Trump's rhetoric about the end of the Iranian conflict may not be over yet, and Trump's visit to China from late March to early April may boost sentiment. It is uncertain whether it can fluctuate upward next.
In 2022, after BTC fell to 26000, it fluctuated for 1 month (around May 12 to June 11) before falling again to 17000.
In this round, after BTC fell to 80000, it fluctuated for 2 months (around November 21 to January 20) before dropping to 60000.
The characteristic of this round is that the decline is fast, but it may fluctuate for a longer period.
After BTC fell to 17000 in 2022, it had a mild upward fluctuation for 2 months (around June 18 to August 19) before starting to decline again.
This is a period where the short to medium-term moving averages are intertwined below, waiting for the long-term moving averages to converge.
Currently, after this round of BTC reaching 60000, it has fluctuated for 1 month from February 6 until now. The next likely scenario is still a fluctuating market.
At present, if there are no black swan events, it may resemble the upward fluctuations of 2022.
However, tomorrow's CPI data may be negative, Trump's rhetoric about the end of the Iranian conflict may not be over yet, and Trump's visit to China from late March to early April may boost sentiment. It is uncertain whether it can fluctuate upward next.
It is uncertain how long Trump can take down the small Khamenei he just took over today, but even if it continues as a war of attrition, the United States will not be at a significant disadvantage.
In the Gulf War of 1990, oil prices rose for 3 months.
In fact, Iraq attacked Kuwait in July 1990 and occupied Kuwait by early August. Then there was a gap period.
In January 1991, the United States mobilized, possibly because the U.S. strength was too strong, causing oil prices to plummet. The war ended in February.
One can see that the CPI index in the U.S. at that time had a slight increase, but it was only slight.
If the war lasts too long, Middle Eastern countries can find ways to open up new oil export routes; in fact, there were already some other oil paths, but they are just more expensive.
Iraq and Kuwait are basically unable to export.
Saudi Arabia can go west, from the Red Sea north, through the Suez Canal to Europe, which is expensive. Going south is not possible, as there are Houthi armed forces to the south, who are also allies of the Iranian regime.
The UAE is currently the most optimistic, as it can go directly east, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, heading east to Asia, and further west to Europe.
If the war lasts a long time, these routes can strengthen construction and cooperation, reducing costs.
Even Iraq had a discarded route to the Mediterranean in the early part of the last century, which could potentially be restored.
Therefore, the surge in oil prices may primarily be short-term.
In the Gulf War of 1990, oil prices rose for 3 months.
In fact, Iraq attacked Kuwait in July 1990 and occupied Kuwait by early August. Then there was a gap period.
In January 1991, the United States mobilized, possibly because the U.S. strength was too strong, causing oil prices to plummet. The war ended in February.
One can see that the CPI index in the U.S. at that time had a slight increase, but it was only slight.
If the war lasts too long, Middle Eastern countries can find ways to open up new oil export routes; in fact, there were already some other oil paths, but they are just more expensive.
Iraq and Kuwait are basically unable to export.
Saudi Arabia can go west, from the Red Sea north, through the Suez Canal to Europe, which is expensive. Going south is not possible, as there are Houthi armed forces to the south, who are also allies of the Iranian regime.
The UAE is currently the most optimistic, as it can go directly east, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, heading east to Asia, and further west to Europe.
If the war lasts a long time, these routes can strengthen construction and cooperation, reducing costs.
Even Iraq had a discarded route to the Mediterranean in the early part of the last century, which could potentially be restored.
Therefore, the surge in oil prices may primarily be short-term.
TVBee
·
--
Why does it feel like the impact of oil prices has become a bit emotional?
Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not just an administrative seizure of ships, but mainly through means like mines, missiles, and drones.
Intelligent mines and suicide drones should not yet be able to intelligently identify which countries' ships are involved.
Additionally, there are US reconnaissance satellites and high-altitude drones. So, in fact, it is also very difficult for Iran's own ships to pass through.
Iran's use of this mutually assured destruction method to force other countries is essentially a final desperate struggle.
The problem is that other countries can still hold on for a short time. Conversely, Iran, which has faced nearly 50 years of inflation, may be under greater pressure, including domestic economic deterioration and worsening public living conditions, as well as the dual pressures of the conflict.
As for the United States, about 60% of US crude oil comes from domestic production, while the rest primarily comes from Canada and Mexico, resulting in very little dependence on Middle Eastern oil.
So how long can Iran hold on?
Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not just an administrative seizure of ships, but mainly through means like mines, missiles, and drones.
Intelligent mines and suicide drones should not yet be able to intelligently identify which countries' ships are involved.
Additionally, there are US reconnaissance satellites and high-altitude drones. So, in fact, it is also very difficult for Iran's own ships to pass through.
Iran's use of this mutually assured destruction method to force other countries is essentially a final desperate struggle.
The problem is that other countries can still hold on for a short time. Conversely, Iran, which has faced nearly 50 years of inflation, may be under greater pressure, including domestic economic deterioration and worsening public living conditions, as well as the dual pressures of the conflict.
As for the United States, about 60% of US crude oil comes from domestic production, while the rest primarily comes from Canada and Mexico, resulting in very little dependence on Middle Eastern oil.
So how long can Iran hold on?
Why does it feel like the impact of oil prices has become a bit emotional?
Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not just an administrative seizure of ships, but mainly through means like mines, missiles, and drones.
Intelligent mines and suicide drones should not yet be able to intelligently identify which countries' ships are involved.
Additionally, there are US reconnaissance satellites and high-altitude drones. So, in fact, it is also very difficult for Iran's own ships to pass through.
Iran's use of this mutually assured destruction method to force other countries is essentially a final desperate struggle.
The problem is that other countries can still hold on for a short time. Conversely, Iran, which has faced nearly 50 years of inflation, may be under greater pressure, including domestic economic deterioration and worsening public living conditions, as well as the dual pressures of the conflict.
As for the United States, about 60% of US crude oil comes from domestic production, while the rest primarily comes from Canada and Mexico, resulting in very little dependence on Middle Eastern oil.
So how long can Iran hold on?
Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not just an administrative seizure of ships, but mainly through means like mines, missiles, and drones.
Intelligent mines and suicide drones should not yet be able to intelligently identify which countries' ships are involved.
Additionally, there are US reconnaissance satellites and high-altitude drones. So, in fact, it is also very difficult for Iran's own ships to pass through.
Iran's use of this mutually assured destruction method to force other countries is essentially a final desperate struggle.
The problem is that other countries can still hold on for a short time. Conversely, Iran, which has faced nearly 50 years of inflation, may be under greater pressure, including domestic economic deterioration and worsening public living conditions, as well as the dual pressures of the conflict.
As for the United States, about 60% of US crude oil comes from domestic production, while the rest primarily comes from Canada and Mexico, resulting in very little dependence on Middle Eastern oil.
So how long can Iran hold on?
Dreaming back to 'Age of Discovery 4', Wuding and his three wives.
Suddenly realizing, Wuding is Iraqi, and to go to sea, he must pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Suddenly realizing, Wuding is Iraqi, and to go to sea, he must pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Binance has added strategic reserves, which are still in excess.
USD1 103.13%,
U 100.05%,
defillama's on-chain data shows that Binance's total reserves amount to $147.574 billion. The main assets are on the Ethereum chain, followed by Bitcoin, BSC, and Solana……
Currently, the assets with the most reserves are still primarily on the Ethereum chain, followed by Bitcoin and the BSC chain. This indicates that Ethereum remains the most mainstream ecosystem.
Among the specific reserve assets, the one with the most reserves is BTC, followed by USDT, BNB, WETH, USDC, USD1……
Since 2023, the user reserve assets in Binance have shown a significant upward trend. On one hand, this reflects the market's dependence on Binance; on the other hand, even if altcoins perform poorly in 2025, mainstream assets are still on an upward trend.
USD1 103.13%,
U 100.05%,
defillama's on-chain data shows that Binance's total reserves amount to $147.574 billion. The main assets are on the Ethereum chain, followed by Bitcoin, BSC, and Solana……
Currently, the assets with the most reserves are still primarily on the Ethereum chain, followed by Bitcoin and the BSC chain. This indicates that Ethereum remains the most mainstream ecosystem.
Among the specific reserve assets, the one with the most reserves is BTC, followed by USDT, BNB, WETH, USDC, USD1……
Since 2023, the user reserve assets in Binance have shown a significant upward trend. On one hand, this reflects the market's dependence on Binance; on the other hand, even if altcoins perform poorly in 2025, mainstream assets are still on an upward trend.
#Robert F. Kennedy's Campaign for President of the United States in 2028
I just want to say one thing, one of Trump's experiences is: to win the hearts of the people, one must win over the encryptors, to win the world:)
I just want to say one thing, one of Trump's experiences is: to win the hearts of the people, one must win over the encryptors, to win the world:)
Login to explore more contents