TVBee
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TVBee
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┈➤ Just correcting the error from the last piece
In the previous article, I mentioned 9 people supported no rate hikes in 2026, but it’s actually 8 folks.
So, the average rate hike projection for 2026 is 0.8333 times, while I previously noted it as 0.79 times; this is just a heads up.
Of course, this doesn’t impact the conclusion. The dot plot still predicts a high probability of one rate hike in 2026.
┈➤ Waller didn’t participate in the dot plot
I was too tired last night to sleep, so I just accounted for the other points and subtracted them from the total of 19, which led to counting one extra point.
And that extra point is because Waller didn’t participate in the dot plot.
The dot plot is where each official predicts the year-end interest rates for the current year and the next three years, with each official's forecast marked as a dot on the chart; normally, there should be a total of 19 dots.
Since Waller didn’t participate, there are only 18 dots in total.
In the previous article, I mentioned 9 people supported no rate hikes in 2026, but it’s actually 8 folks.
So, the average rate hike projection for 2026 is 0.8333 times, while I previously noted it as 0.79 times; this is just a heads up.
Of course, this doesn’t impact the conclusion. The dot plot still predicts a high probability of one rate hike in 2026.
┈➤ Waller didn’t participate in the dot plot
I was too tired last night to sleep, so I just accounted for the other points and subtracted them from the total of 19, which led to counting one extra point.
And that extra point is because Waller didn’t participate in the dot plot.
The dot plot is where each official predicts the year-end interest rates for the current year and the next three years, with each official's forecast marked as a dot on the chart; normally, there should be a total of 19 dots.
Since Waller didn’t participate, there are only 18 dots in total.
TVBee
·
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Dovish dot plot, market overreacted
#沃什首次FOMC维持利率
┈➤ It's clear the dot plot is leaning hawkish
2026 predictions:
1 person predicts a rate cut once
9 people predict no change
3 people predict a rate hike once
5 people predict a rate hike twice
1 person predicts a rate hike three times
Compared to the last dot plot, which leaned dovish with rate cut predictions, it's now shifted to hawkish with rate hike expectations.
┈➤ The market overreacted
In fact, according to the dot plot, Fed officials are predicting an average rate hike of 0.79% by 2026.
Previously, CME rate futures indicated that the market expected one rate hike between December and January 2027.
So, the dot plot essentially aligns with expectations, maybe just slightly worse than anticipated.
Currently, CME rate futures show that the expected rate for September is likely between 3.75% and 4.0%, while it's currently at 3.5% to 3.75%, indicating a significant probability of a rate hike in September.
The issue is, looking at market expectations for October to December, the anticipated rate remains 3.75% to 4.0%, meaning the market is essentially expecting one rate hike in 2026.
The greater likelihood for January 2027 is a rate between 4.0% and 3.75%, but that probability is only slightly higher.
So, we are still expecting one to two rate hikes between 2026 and January 2027, with the original expectations only increasing by one rate hike at most.
And the expectation of a rate hike in September is influenced because CME rate futures are also a trading product, leading traders to have emotional and speculative elements when buying this product.
From this, we can see that the market is digesting the hawkish sentiment of the dot plot and is in a somewhat irrational state.
┈➤ Final thoughts
With this sentiment in play, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.99%, and BTC hasn't broken below 64,000.
BTC may have already dipped ahead of June 5-6. Moving forward, the main focus will be whether Trump and Iran can sign their memorandum of understanding. Will Trump backtrack again and do something to spike oil prices? If there are no major bearish catalysts, BTC might not head downward.
BeeBrother believes BTC's three tests will occur in September,
that’s after Walsh's first quarter of adjustment and research with Fed officials, potentially leading to a policy direction from the Fed.
Relative to the previously dipped BTC, BeeBrother speculates that US stocks might continue to adjust, as previously charted, there’s a certain probability of US stocks dropping in the second month after a US president visits China. Of course, this aspect requires further multi-angle research.
#沃什首次FOMC维持利率
┈➤ It's clear the dot plot is leaning hawkish
2026 predictions:
1 person predicts a rate cut once
9 people predict no change
3 people predict a rate hike once
5 people predict a rate hike twice
1 person predicts a rate hike three times
Compared to the last dot plot, which leaned dovish with rate cut predictions, it's now shifted to hawkish with rate hike expectations.
┈➤ The market overreacted
In fact, according to the dot plot, Fed officials are predicting an average rate hike of 0.79% by 2026.
Previously, CME rate futures indicated that the market expected one rate hike between December and January 2027.
So, the dot plot essentially aligns with expectations, maybe just slightly worse than anticipated.
Currently, CME rate futures show that the expected rate for September is likely between 3.75% and 4.0%, while it's currently at 3.5% to 3.75%, indicating a significant probability of a rate hike in September.
The issue is, looking at market expectations for October to December, the anticipated rate remains 3.75% to 4.0%, meaning the market is essentially expecting one rate hike in 2026.
The greater likelihood for January 2027 is a rate between 4.0% and 3.75%, but that probability is only slightly higher.
So, we are still expecting one to two rate hikes between 2026 and January 2027, with the original expectations only increasing by one rate hike at most.
And the expectation of a rate hike in September is influenced because CME rate futures are also a trading product, leading traders to have emotional and speculative elements when buying this product.
From this, we can see that the market is digesting the hawkish sentiment of the dot plot and is in a somewhat irrational state.
┈➤ Final thoughts
With this sentiment in play, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.99%, and BTC hasn't broken below 64,000.
BTC may have already dipped ahead of June 5-6. Moving forward, the main focus will be whether Trump and Iran can sign their memorandum of understanding. Will Trump backtrack again and do something to spike oil prices? If there are no major bearish catalysts, BTC might not head downward.
BeeBrother believes BTC's three tests will occur in September,
that’s after Walsh's first quarter of adjustment and research with Fed officials, potentially leading to a policy direction from the Fed.
Relative to the previously dipped BTC, BeeBrother speculates that US stocks might continue to adjust, as previously charted, there’s a certain probability of US stocks dropping in the second month after a US president visits China. Of course, this aspect requires further multi-angle research.
Dovish dot plot, market overreacted
#沃什首次FOMC维持利率
┈➤ It's clear the dot plot is leaning hawkish
2026 predictions:
1 person predicts a rate cut once
9 people predict no change
3 people predict a rate hike once
5 people predict a rate hike twice
1 person predicts a rate hike three times
Compared to the last dot plot, which leaned dovish with rate cut predictions, it's now shifted to hawkish with rate hike expectations.
┈➤ The market overreacted
In fact, according to the dot plot, Fed officials are predicting an average rate hike of 0.79% by 2026.
Previously, CME rate futures indicated that the market expected one rate hike between December and January 2027.
So, the dot plot essentially aligns with expectations, maybe just slightly worse than anticipated.
Currently, CME rate futures show that the expected rate for September is likely between 3.75% and 4.0%, while it's currently at 3.5% to 3.75%, indicating a significant probability of a rate hike in September.
The issue is, looking at market expectations for October to December, the anticipated rate remains 3.75% to 4.0%, meaning the market is essentially expecting one rate hike in 2026.
The greater likelihood for January 2027 is a rate between 4.0% and 3.75%, but that probability is only slightly higher.
So, we are still expecting one to two rate hikes between 2026 and January 2027, with the original expectations only increasing by one rate hike at most.
And the expectation of a rate hike in September is influenced because CME rate futures are also a trading product, leading traders to have emotional and speculative elements when buying this product.
From this, we can see that the market is digesting the hawkish sentiment of the dot plot and is in a somewhat irrational state.
┈➤ Final thoughts
With this sentiment in play, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.99%, and BTC hasn't broken below 64,000.
BTC may have already dipped ahead of June 5-6. Moving forward, the main focus will be whether Trump and Iran can sign their memorandum of understanding. Will Trump backtrack again and do something to spike oil prices? If there are no major bearish catalysts, BTC might not head downward.
BeeBrother believes BTC's three tests will occur in September,
that’s after Walsh's first quarter of adjustment and research with Fed officials, potentially leading to a policy direction from the Fed.
Relative to the previously dipped BTC, BeeBrother speculates that US stocks might continue to adjust, as previously charted, there’s a certain probability of US stocks dropping in the second month after a US president visits China. Of course, this aspect requires further multi-angle research.
#沃什首次FOMC维持利率
┈➤ It's clear the dot plot is leaning hawkish
2026 predictions:
1 person predicts a rate cut once
9 people predict no change
3 people predict a rate hike once
5 people predict a rate hike twice
1 person predicts a rate hike three times
Compared to the last dot plot, which leaned dovish with rate cut predictions, it's now shifted to hawkish with rate hike expectations.
┈➤ The market overreacted
In fact, according to the dot plot, Fed officials are predicting an average rate hike of 0.79% by 2026.
Previously, CME rate futures indicated that the market expected one rate hike between December and January 2027.
So, the dot plot essentially aligns with expectations, maybe just slightly worse than anticipated.
Currently, CME rate futures show that the expected rate for September is likely between 3.75% and 4.0%, while it's currently at 3.5% to 3.75%, indicating a significant probability of a rate hike in September.
The issue is, looking at market expectations for October to December, the anticipated rate remains 3.75% to 4.0%, meaning the market is essentially expecting one rate hike in 2026.
The greater likelihood for January 2027 is a rate between 4.0% and 3.75%, but that probability is only slightly higher.
So, we are still expecting one to two rate hikes between 2026 and January 2027, with the original expectations only increasing by one rate hike at most.
And the expectation of a rate hike in September is influenced because CME rate futures are also a trading product, leading traders to have emotional and speculative elements when buying this product.
From this, we can see that the market is digesting the hawkish sentiment of the dot plot and is in a somewhat irrational state.
┈➤ Final thoughts
With this sentiment in play, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.99%, and BTC hasn't broken below 64,000.
BTC may have already dipped ahead of June 5-6. Moving forward, the main focus will be whether Trump and Iran can sign their memorandum of understanding. Will Trump backtrack again and do something to spike oil prices? If there are no major bearish catalysts, BTC might not head downward.
BeeBrother believes BTC's three tests will occur in September,
that’s after Walsh's first quarter of adjustment and research with Fed officials, potentially leading to a policy direction from the Fed.
Relative to the previously dipped BTC, BeeBrother speculates that US stocks might continue to adjust, as previously charted, there’s a certain probability of US stocks dropping in the second month after a US president visits China. Of course, this aspect requires further multi-angle research.
Verified
MicroStrategy Boosts Reserves by $100 Million, Covering Dividend and Interest Payments Through January 2027
According to the 8-K report, MicroStrategy raised a net amount of $209 million by issuing common stock for $MSTR. No new preferred shares were issued.
They added 1,587 BTC at an average price of $63,024, totaling $100 million.
The remaining $109 million was allocated to their USD reserves, increasing the total reserves to $1.1 billion.
This aligns perfectly with the previous analysis by Bee Bro; there’s a demand to buy the dip in BTC's bottom range (or phase bottom misjudged), allowing MicroStrategy to finance by issuing more common stock instead of preferred shares.
Financing through common stock won't increase future dividend payouts and still keeps the USD reserves intact.
With the rise in USD reserves, MicroStrategy's funds can cover preferred share dividends through January 2027.
Feel free to follow TVBee, Saylor's Chinese accountant (free)🤣
According to the 8-K report, MicroStrategy raised a net amount of $209 million by issuing common stock for $MSTR. No new preferred shares were issued.
They added 1,587 BTC at an average price of $63,024, totaling $100 million.
The remaining $109 million was allocated to their USD reserves, increasing the total reserves to $1.1 billion.
This aligns perfectly with the previous analysis by Bee Bro; there’s a demand to buy the dip in BTC's bottom range (or phase bottom misjudged), allowing MicroStrategy to finance by issuing more common stock instead of preferred shares.
Financing through common stock won't increase future dividend payouts and still keeps the USD reserves intact.
With the rise in USD reserves, MicroStrategy's funds can cover preferred share dividends through January 2027.
Feel free to follow TVBee, Saylor's Chinese accountant (free)🤣
SBF misused user funds, causing a major market crash.
Then a few AI traders made a killing (which is pretty much unrelated to us).
People: SBF is a genius!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Saylor said: What I meant was don't sell your own BTC, I didn't say companies can't sell. (Strictly speaking, MicroStrategy sold most of its holdings, over 90%, which aren't their own BTC, but shareholders' BTC)
Then MicroStrategy sold 32 BTC (making the already downtrending BTC drop even faster, turning a long pain into a quick one).
Afterwards, they bought back 1550 BTC at the bottom (temporarily halting BTC at over 59000).
People: Saylor is a scammer!
So does having a bit of success make a scammer a genius? Does a genius with a few flaws become a scammer?
Then a few AI traders made a killing (which is pretty much unrelated to us).
People: SBF is a genius!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Saylor said: What I meant was don't sell your own BTC, I didn't say companies can't sell. (Strictly speaking, MicroStrategy sold most of its holdings, over 90%, which aren't their own BTC, but shareholders' BTC)
Then MicroStrategy sold 32 BTC (making the already downtrending BTC drop even faster, turning a long pain into a quick one).
Afterwards, they bought back 1550 BTC at the bottom (temporarily halting BTC at over 59000).
People: Saylor is a scammer!
So does having a bit of success make a scammer a genius? Does a genius with a few flaws become a scammer?
Promise me, don't short $TRUMP and $WLFI.
Today is June 14th, Trump’s 80th birthday.
It's also Flag Day and the Army Day in the U.S.
July 4th, 2026 marks the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence.
Trump will be celebrating in style at the White House.
The South Lawn will host an ultimate fighting championship (UFC) event—UFC Freedom 250.
14 UFC stars will be going head-to-head, with historical clips related to the 250th anniversary interspersed between each match, a military band performing, and aerial and parachuting displays...
Trump's 80th birthday will intertwine with the 250th anniversary theme…
Today is June 14th, Trump’s 80th birthday.
It's also Flag Day and the Army Day in the U.S.
July 4th, 2026 marks the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence.
Trump will be celebrating in style at the White House.
The South Lawn will host an ultimate fighting championship (UFC) event—UFC Freedom 250.
14 UFC stars will be going head-to-head, with historical clips related to the 250th anniversary interspersed between each match, a military band performing, and aerial and parachuting displays...
Trump's 80th birthday will intertwine with the 250th anniversary theme…
Verified
Europe has already started raising rates, will the US follow suit on June 18?
Some folks are asking, since Europe just hiked by 25 basis points, will the US do the same?
To cut to the chase, the Fed is very unlikely to raise rates anytime soon.
┈➤ The logic behind Europe's rate hike is defensive.
With rising oil prices and inflation, society needs higher wages, but once wages go up, companies have to jack up their sales prices to cover costs.
This could create a "wage-price" spiral, pushing inflation higher.
Raising rates makes the currency seem more valuable, leading to expectations that prices won't keep climbing.
So essentially, Europe's rate hike is about managing expectations—it's a defensive move.
┈➤ Why won't the US raise rates?
This logic applies to the US as well, so why is the US holding back?
First, a rate hike would likely boost Treasury yields, and Europe's rate hikes pose some risks for high-debt countries like Italy and France, but not so much for fiscally sound countries like Germany and the Netherlands.
The impact of US Treasury yields is broader and could even affect global asset repricing, making the Fed more cautious about raising rates.
Second, Europe’s rates were relatively low to begin with. After the hike, the deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate will be 2.25%, 2.4%, and 2.65% respectively.
However, the US federal funds rate is currently between 3.5% and 3.75%, which is already quite high; another hike would push it even higher.
Third, raising rates in the US could create more issues. The "wage-price" spiral triggered by rising oil prices isn’t showing any signs in the US for now.
Since March, the month-on-month growth rate of US hourly wages hasn't accelerated due to rising oil prices.
So, the Fed is very unlikely to raise rates in the near future.
Some folks are asking, since Europe just hiked by 25 basis points, will the US do the same?
To cut to the chase, the Fed is very unlikely to raise rates anytime soon.
┈➤ The logic behind Europe's rate hike is defensive.
With rising oil prices and inflation, society needs higher wages, but once wages go up, companies have to jack up their sales prices to cover costs.
This could create a "wage-price" spiral, pushing inflation higher.
Raising rates makes the currency seem more valuable, leading to expectations that prices won't keep climbing.
So essentially, Europe's rate hike is about managing expectations—it's a defensive move.
┈➤ Why won't the US raise rates?
This logic applies to the US as well, so why is the US holding back?
First, a rate hike would likely boost Treasury yields, and Europe's rate hikes pose some risks for high-debt countries like Italy and France, but not so much for fiscally sound countries like Germany and the Netherlands.
The impact of US Treasury yields is broader and could even affect global asset repricing, making the Fed more cautious about raising rates.
Second, Europe’s rates were relatively low to begin with. After the hike, the deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate will be 2.25%, 2.4%, and 2.65% respectively.
However, the US federal funds rate is currently between 3.5% and 3.75%, which is already quite high; another hike would push it even higher.
Third, raising rates in the US could create more issues. The "wage-price" spiral triggered by rising oil prices isn’t showing any signs in the US for now.
Since March, the month-on-month growth rate of US hourly wages hasn't accelerated due to rising oil prices.
So, the Fed is very unlikely to raise rates in the near future.
The World Cup dip is definitely something to track
Today marks the World Cup kickoff, and looking back at the 2014, 2018, and 2022 World Cups, there’s a noticeable dip on the opening day or just a few days prior.
In the past three World Cups, the market mainly saw consolidation.
Except for 2014, the other two World Cups led to a rebound trend. Maybe it’s because during 2014-2015, BTC consensus was still pretty weak?
Logically, it makes sense—those who bet on the World Cup and those into crypto are both high-risk gamblers. So, with the World Cup starting, it's logical that the crypto market gets drained.
In the days leading up to this year's World Cup, we already saw a drop, but interestingly, today we’re seeing a bounce back. BTC has dropped from around 73000; I wonder if it can recover post-World Cup?
Today marks the World Cup kickoff, and looking back at the 2014, 2018, and 2022 World Cups, there’s a noticeable dip on the opening day or just a few days prior.
In the past three World Cups, the market mainly saw consolidation.
Except for 2014, the other two World Cups led to a rebound trend. Maybe it’s because during 2014-2015, BTC consensus was still pretty weak?
Logically, it makes sense—those who bet on the World Cup and those into crypto are both high-risk gamblers. So, with the World Cup starting, it's logical that the crypto market gets drained.
In the days leading up to this year's World Cup, we already saw a drop, but interestingly, today we’re seeing a bounce back. BTC has dropped from around 73000; I wonder if it can recover post-World Cup?
Verified
Let's share a joke: if oil prices stay at this level, CPI might drop by next year.
The Fed mainly looks at the annual CPI rate, which is a year-over-year figure. It compares this May to last May, and this June to last June.
If oil prices hold steady until next year, doing the math could show that the annual CPI rate might not be that high...
Of course, oil prices spiked in March this year, and the CPI rate in March next year may not directly drop, since oil costs impact production expenses, which in turn affect prices. But if oil prices remain stable, there's a chance the CPI rate could slide down in the second half of next year.
The Fed mainly looks at the annual CPI rate, which is a year-over-year figure. It compares this May to last May, and this June to last June.
If oil prices hold steady until next year, doing the math could show that the annual CPI rate might not be that high...
Of course, oil prices spiked in March this year, and the CPI rate in March next year may not directly drop, since oil costs impact production expenses, which in turn affect prices. But if oil prices remain stable, there's a chance the CPI rate could slide down in the second half of next year.
TVBee
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May oil prices are dipping, impacting the CPI monthly rate which has somewhat retreated
Core CPI monthly rate is below expectations
◆ Overall CPI yearly rate meets expectations (4.2%).
◆ Overall CPI monthly rate aligns with expectations (0.5%), slightly down from last month (0.6%).
◆ Core CPI yearly rate meets expectations (2.9%).
◆ Core CPI monthly rate (0.2%) is below expectations (0.3%), but lower than last month (0.4%).
Overall, it reflects a drop in oil prices, but they’re still at elevated levels.
If the data holds true, it's not bad news overall.
Next up, we’ll be watching the interest rate meeting on the 18th, the first FOMC meeting chaired by Waller, along with the dot plot.
My personal take is that there won't be a rate hike or cut, but the dot plot is likely to lean hawkish.
Core CPI monthly rate is below expectations
◆ Overall CPI yearly rate meets expectations (4.2%).
◆ Overall CPI monthly rate aligns with expectations (0.5%), slightly down from last month (0.6%).
◆ Core CPI yearly rate meets expectations (2.9%).
◆ Core CPI monthly rate (0.2%) is below expectations (0.3%), but lower than last month (0.4%).
Overall, it reflects a drop in oil prices, but they’re still at elevated levels.
If the data holds true, it's not bad news overall.
Next up, we’ll be watching the interest rate meeting on the 18th, the first FOMC meeting chaired by Waller, along with the dot plot.
My personal take is that there won't be a rate hike or cut, but the dot plot is likely to lean hawkish.
Verified
May oil prices are dipping, impacting the CPI monthly rate which has somewhat retreated
Core CPI monthly rate is below expectations
◆ Overall CPI yearly rate meets expectations (4.2%).
◆ Overall CPI monthly rate aligns with expectations (0.5%), slightly down from last month (0.6%).
◆ Core CPI yearly rate meets expectations (2.9%).
◆ Core CPI monthly rate (0.2%) is below expectations (0.3%), but lower than last month (0.4%).
Overall, it reflects a drop in oil prices, but they’re still at elevated levels.
If the data holds true, it's not bad news overall.
Next up, we’ll be watching the interest rate meeting on the 18th, the first FOMC meeting chaired by Waller, along with the dot plot.
My personal take is that there won't be a rate hike or cut, but the dot plot is likely to lean hawkish.
Core CPI monthly rate is below expectations
◆ Overall CPI yearly rate meets expectations (4.2%).
◆ Overall CPI monthly rate aligns with expectations (0.5%), slightly down from last month (0.6%).
◆ Core CPI yearly rate meets expectations (2.9%).
◆ Core CPI monthly rate (0.2%) is below expectations (0.3%), but lower than last month (0.4%).
Overall, it reflects a drop in oil prices, but they’re still at elevated levels.
If the data holds true, it's not bad news overall.
Next up, we’ll be watching the interest rate meeting on the 18th, the first FOMC meeting chaired by Waller, along with the dot plot.
My personal take is that there won't be a rate hike or cut, but the dot plot is likely to lean hawkish.
Let me tell you another spooky story about the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which took 6 years of US-Iran negotiations.
Although it's generally believed that negotiations started 13 years ago, right when the Iran nuclear crisis kicked off in 2003.
But before 2009, the US wasn't even in the game.
During Bush's presidency, he was all about making Iran completely halt uranium enrichment, otherwise, no bilateral talks would happen. This demand aligns with Trump's objectives as well.
One of the turning points was when Obama took office in 2009, and that's when the US finally started face-to-face talks with Iran.
So from 2009 to 2015, it took 6 years to seal the deal.
Another key moment was in 2013 when the moderate Rouhani was elected President of Iran, and under his influence, the 2015 nuclear deal was reached. By that calculation, the negotiations lasted 2 years.
So here's the question: Without Obama and Rouhani in 2026, how long will it take for the US and Iran to strike a deal?
Although it's generally believed that negotiations started 13 years ago, right when the Iran nuclear crisis kicked off in 2003.
But before 2009, the US wasn't even in the game.
During Bush's presidency, he was all about making Iran completely halt uranium enrichment, otherwise, no bilateral talks would happen. This demand aligns with Trump's objectives as well.
One of the turning points was when Obama took office in 2009, and that's when the US finally started face-to-face talks with Iran.
So from 2009 to 2015, it took 6 years to seal the deal.
Another key moment was in 2013 when the moderate Rouhani was elected President of Iran, and under his influence, the 2015 nuclear deal was reached. By that calculation, the negotiations lasted 2 years.
So here's the question: Without Obama and Rouhani in 2026, how long will it take for the US and Iran to strike a deal?
Believe it or not, over 80% of BTC has been held for more than 155 days without moving. So, does BTC really have faith?\n\nT said faith is something you can give your life for, and I agree.\n\nBut does it have to be about dying to truly make a sacrifice?! Faith doesn’t have to be an all-or-nothing deal with your entire life, right?!\n🤣\n\nWhat about those who are deeply religious? If they aren’t willing to die for their beliefs, does that mean they lack faith?\n\nEvery minute and every second we spend is part of our lives.\n\nAs long as you're willing to buy and hold, that’s faith! The more people hold and the longer they hold, the stronger that faith becomes! Because what’s at stake is precious cash earned from a part of our lives!\n\nHolding this has on-chain data; BTC held for over 155 days is referred to as long-term BTC.\n\nCheck the chart; the growth trend of long-term BTC is pretty clear and needs no further explanation.\n\nLooking at the data, the number of long-term BTC held for more than 155 days exceeds 16 million, with a circulating supply of 20.03M BTC.\n\nThis means over 80% of BTC has been held for more than 155 days.\n\nSo, does BTC have faith? You tell me!
Verified
MicroStrategy's funds can basically hold out until December.
You might not believe it, but the BTC crash actually benefits MicroStrategy!
Last week, MicroStrategy bought 1550 BTC!
Just like what Bro Bee analyzed before, when BTC drops to the bottom range (although it might be a phase bottom range), all they need to do is issue common stock.
According to MicroStrategy's 8-K report, last week they raised $181 million by issuing common stock $MSTR. They didn't issue preferred stock, which won’t add pressure for future dividends.
After increasing their USD reserves, MicroStrategy's dollar reserves for paying dividends reached $1 billion, and Bro Bee updated the dividend interest statistics.
Basically, MicroStrategy's USD reserves can support until December.
Bro Bee still says,
MicroStrategy isn’t afraid of how deep it drops, just how long it stays down.
Not only are they not afraid of a deep drop, but the BTC crash is also a great opportunity for MicroStrategy to issue $MSTR, allowing them to finance at a low cost without increasing dividend expenditures.
You might not believe it, but the BTC crash actually benefits MicroStrategy!
Last week, MicroStrategy bought 1550 BTC!
Just like what Bro Bee analyzed before, when BTC drops to the bottom range (although it might be a phase bottom range), all they need to do is issue common stock.
According to MicroStrategy's 8-K report, last week they raised $181 million by issuing common stock $MSTR. They didn't issue preferred stock, which won’t add pressure for future dividends.
After increasing their USD reserves, MicroStrategy's dollar reserves for paying dividends reached $1 billion, and Bro Bee updated the dividend interest statistics.
Basically, MicroStrategy's USD reserves can support until December.
Bro Bee still says,
MicroStrategy isn’t afraid of how deep it drops, just how long it stays down.
Not only are they not afraid of a deep drop, but the BTC crash is also a great opportunity for MicroStrategy to issue $MSTR, allowing them to finance at a low cost without increasing dividend expenditures.
Why didn’t I catch the bottom? Let me share two spooky stories.
My personal judgment is around 55,000, and with prices dropping below 60k, we’re actually getting close to my perceived bottom.
But Bro Bee didn’t add to his BTC stack.
That’s because there are some major events still on the horizon this month.
On June 10th, Wednesday’s CPI is likely to come in not so great.
The first spooky story is June 11-12.
SpaceX's IPO + the World Cup kick-off.
Some believe these two events might suck up liquidity.
The second spooky story is June 18th.
Quadruple witching + the dot plot.
Because June 19th coincides with the June Festival, the settlement for options and futures should happen on June 18th, which is the day for both monthly and quarterly options and futures settlement, aka - Quadruple witching day.
Plus, the first FOMC meeting with the new chair and the dot plot is also on this day.
These two dates might not necessarily see a drop, but major volatility is definitely on the table.
My personal judgment is around 55,000, and with prices dropping below 60k, we’re actually getting close to my perceived bottom.
But Bro Bee didn’t add to his BTC stack.
That’s because there are some major events still on the horizon this month.
On June 10th, Wednesday’s CPI is likely to come in not so great.
The first spooky story is June 11-12.
SpaceX's IPO + the World Cup kick-off.
Some believe these two events might suck up liquidity.
The second spooky story is June 18th.
Quadruple witching + the dot plot.
Because June 19th coincides with the June Festival, the settlement for options and futures should happen on June 18th, which is the day for both monthly and quarterly options and futures settlement, aka - Quadruple witching day.
Plus, the first FOMC meeting with the new chair and the dot plot is also on this day.
These two dates might not necessarily see a drop, but major volatility is definitely on the table.
You can't just slap an 80% discount on BTC, I've broken this down almost a dozen times.
You shouldn't just discount from BTC's all-time high. It should be 126000 minus the starting point of this bull run, which is 15000, and then discount based on that difference.
Let me draw a chart; it'll make it way clearer.
This difference reflects capital inflow, and the outflow is built upon that inflow.
So, the calculation for a retracement of 80% is:
126000 - (126000 - 15000) * 80%
I actually covered this in my article, but some folks missed it.
🙃
In the past, we just multiplied by 80% because the starting point was too low, and it didn't make much of a difference whether we subtracted or not. But moving forward, you can't just apply the retracement ratio directly to the all-time high.
You shouldn't just discount from BTC's all-time high. It should be 126000 minus the starting point of this bull run, which is 15000, and then discount based on that difference.
Let me draw a chart; it'll make it way clearer.
This difference reflects capital inflow, and the outflow is built upon that inflow.
So, the calculation for a retracement of 80% is:
126000 - (126000 - 15000) * 80%
I actually covered this in my article, but some folks missed it.
🙃
In the past, we just multiplied by 80% because the starting point was too low, and it didn't make much of a difference whether we subtracted or not. But moving forward, you can't just apply the retracement ratio directly to the all-time high.
TVBee
·
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Where's the flaw in the BTC drop to 35000?
┈➤ Carving the boat to seek the sword
Some big players firmly believe BTC will drop to 35000. Brother Bee speculates that this logic is based on BTC dropping around 80% from its peak each cycle.
From 2022 to 2026, BTC rose from 15000 to 126000, gaining 111000.
An 80% retracement would put it at 88800, meaning 126000 - 88800 = 37200.
┈➤ Where's the flaw
If we're carving the boat to seek the sword, then BTC's peak rise should also follow some pattern.
╰✦ BTC's peak didn’t meet expectations
For 2026, there are two market expectations for BTC's peak: the optimistic view is 19000, while some believe it could hit 140000, but very few think it will reach 120000.
In other words, BTC might not have risen to the peak we’re carving the boat for.
MVRV shows that in the last three bull markets, a line can be drawn, but the peak in 2026 is far from that line, indicating BTC hasn't hit the expected peak we’re carving for.
If it didn’t follow the carving strategy on the way up, why follow it on the way down?
┈➤ Reasons for BTC's unsatisfactory peak
The unsatisfactory peak of BTC can also be explained. One reason, similar to the absence of altcoins, is the constraints from macro liquidity.
If there hadn’t been tariffs from Trump, the US CPI might have already decreased by 2025, and the Fed could have started a series of rate cuts in 2025, making liquidity less tight, potentially allowing BTC's peak to be a bit higher.
Don’t bring up US stocks, as they have earnings from listed companies to consider.
And don’t say M2 is massive, because in a speculative market like crypto, what we need is the growth rate of M2 to create liquidity overflow. But 2025 clearly isn’t looking ideal.
The chart shows that the annual growth rate of M2 in 2025 is at a historical low, similar to 2018, clearly lower than 2017, and totally incomparable to 2021.
┈➤ Speculative capital flow
Looking at the 80% retracement logic from the opposite angle, 20% are steadfast investors.
The other 80% are speculative funds.
Speculative funds not only flow out during bear markets, but the rise during bull markets also comes from the inflow of speculative funds.
As previously analyzed, the reason for this cycle's unsatisfactory BTC peak is macro liquidity. And the impact of macro liquidity on BTC investment and speculation is clearly greater for the latter.
So, for this round in 2025, with less speculative capital inflow, will there still be an outflow of 80%?
┈➤ Carving the boat to seek the sword
Some big players firmly believe BTC will drop to 35000. Brother Bee speculates that this logic is based on BTC dropping around 80% from its peak each cycle.
From 2022 to 2026, BTC rose from 15000 to 126000, gaining 111000.
An 80% retracement would put it at 88800, meaning 126000 - 88800 = 37200.
┈➤ Where's the flaw
If we're carving the boat to seek the sword, then BTC's peak rise should also follow some pattern.
╰✦ BTC's peak didn’t meet expectations
For 2026, there are two market expectations for BTC's peak: the optimistic view is 19000, while some believe it could hit 140000, but very few think it will reach 120000.
In other words, BTC might not have risen to the peak we’re carving the boat for.
MVRV shows that in the last three bull markets, a line can be drawn, but the peak in 2026 is far from that line, indicating BTC hasn't hit the expected peak we’re carving for.
If it didn’t follow the carving strategy on the way up, why follow it on the way down?
┈➤ Reasons for BTC's unsatisfactory peak
The unsatisfactory peak of BTC can also be explained. One reason, similar to the absence of altcoins, is the constraints from macro liquidity.
If there hadn’t been tariffs from Trump, the US CPI might have already decreased by 2025, and the Fed could have started a series of rate cuts in 2025, making liquidity less tight, potentially allowing BTC's peak to be a bit higher.
Don’t bring up US stocks, as they have earnings from listed companies to consider.
And don’t say M2 is massive, because in a speculative market like crypto, what we need is the growth rate of M2 to create liquidity overflow. But 2025 clearly isn’t looking ideal.
The chart shows that the annual growth rate of M2 in 2025 is at a historical low, similar to 2018, clearly lower than 2017, and totally incomparable to 2021.
┈➤ Speculative capital flow
Looking at the 80% retracement logic from the opposite angle, 20% are steadfast investors.
The other 80% are speculative funds.
Speculative funds not only flow out during bear markets, but the rise during bull markets also comes from the inflow of speculative funds.
As previously analyzed, the reason for this cycle's unsatisfactory BTC peak is macro liquidity. And the impact of macro liquidity on BTC investment and speculation is clearly greater for the latter.
So, for this round in 2025, with less speculative capital inflow, will there still be an outflow of 80%?
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