TVBee
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But the weekly MACD just crossed bullish, and the Bollinger Bands are also at the middle band. How do we explain that? Still, I feel like we shouldn't rush into a short just yet and wait a bit.
The big players are intentionally using these indicators to bait retail traders into shorting.
Shorting Logic 2: RSI Divergence
┈➤ Simplest Calculation of RSI
RSI is an index that measures the relative strength of price movements.
RSI is actually a pretty straightforward calculation, but for some reason, it gets quite complex and seems a bit sick.
Basically, it adds up the gains over the last N days and the losses separately.
RSI = Total Gains / (Total Gains + Total Losses) * 100
For example, if Day 1 gains 1, Day 2 loses 2, Day 3 gains 3, Day 4 loses 4, Day 5 gains 5, and Day 6 loses 6:
RSI6 = (1 + 3 + 5) / (1 + 3 + 5 + 2 + 4 + 6) * 100
┈➤ Meaning of RSI
RSI6 = 75
This means that the buying strength over the last 6 days accounts for 75%, while the selling strength accounts for 25%.
┈➤ Overbought and Oversold
Generally, if the RSI exceeds 75, it’s considered overbought, indicating strong buying pressure.
If the RSI is below 25, it’s considered oversold, indicating strong selling pressure.
┈➤ RSI Divergence
Besides the overbought and oversold applications, RSI can also be compared to price trends.
From April 17 to April 22, it’s clear that BTC is on the rise.
However, both RSI6 and RSI12 haven’t made new highs, while RSI24 shows an upward trend. Over the 6-day and 12-day levels, RSI has diverged.
This indicates that the buying strength from April 12 to April 17 was stronger than from April 17 to April 22.
The buying strength over the 12 days from April 6 to April 17 was stronger than from April 11 to April 22.
This suggests that, relatively speaking, the buying power is weakening while the selling power is strengthening.
RSI24's impact is relatively weak; similar situations were observed on December 9, 2025, and January 14, 2026. RSI6 showed divergence, and RSI24 had an upward trend, but BTC prices hit local tops.
Of course, this doesn’t mean a downturn will happen immediately; sometimes, emotional momentum can push prices higher. So Brother Bee 63 has already sold the BTC spot he picked up and is still waiting to short.
┈➤ Simplest Calculation of RSI
RSI is an index that measures the relative strength of price movements.
RSI is actually a pretty straightforward calculation, but for some reason, it gets quite complex and seems a bit sick.
Basically, it adds up the gains over the last N days and the losses separately.
RSI = Total Gains / (Total Gains + Total Losses) * 100
For example, if Day 1 gains 1, Day 2 loses 2, Day 3 gains 3, Day 4 loses 4, Day 5 gains 5, and Day 6 loses 6:
RSI6 = (1 + 3 + 5) / (1 + 3 + 5 + 2 + 4 + 6) * 100
┈➤ Meaning of RSI
RSI6 = 75
This means that the buying strength over the last 6 days accounts for 75%, while the selling strength accounts for 25%.
┈➤ Overbought and Oversold
Generally, if the RSI exceeds 75, it’s considered overbought, indicating strong buying pressure.
If the RSI is below 25, it’s considered oversold, indicating strong selling pressure.
┈➤ RSI Divergence
Besides the overbought and oversold applications, RSI can also be compared to price trends.
From April 17 to April 22, it’s clear that BTC is on the rise.
However, both RSI6 and RSI12 haven’t made new highs, while RSI24 shows an upward trend. Over the 6-day and 12-day levels, RSI has diverged.
This indicates that the buying strength from April 12 to April 17 was stronger than from April 17 to April 22.
The buying strength over the 12 days from April 6 to April 17 was stronger than from April 11 to April 22.
This suggests that, relatively speaking, the buying power is weakening while the selling power is strengthening.
RSI24's impact is relatively weak; similar situations were observed on December 9, 2025, and January 14, 2026. RSI6 showed divergence, and RSI24 had an upward trend, but BTC prices hit local tops.
Of course, this doesn’t mean a downturn will happen immediately; sometimes, emotional momentum can push prices higher. So Brother Bee 63 has already sold the BTC spot he picked up and is still waiting to short.
TVBee
·
--
Short Logic One: Seeking the Sword from the Boat
Looking back at the bear markets of 2018 and 2022, both had a rally.
┈➤ False Breakouts in the Bear Market
In 2022, the daily MA25 approached MA99 but failed to break above, even struggling to surpass MA7.
In 2018, the daily MA25 and MA7 both crossed above MA99, but that was also a false breakout, and it quickly dipped again. By the time MA25 crossed, BTC was already on a downtrend.
It's not entirely a case of seeking the sword from the boat; bear market sentiment needs time to heal, and the major funds also need time to accumulate. This logic remains unchanged.
Therefore, even though there's a demand for a rally in a bear market, if the main players haven't accumulated enough chips, it's tough to flip to a bull market so quickly.
┈➤ Why wait a few more days?
╰✦ There might be a longer consolidation period to compensate for the length of the bear market.
From the overall trend of the first half of the bear market, this pattern looks more like 2022. The stage bottom was on June 18, 2022, followed by a gradual rally, peaking on August 15.
This time, we hit the stage bottom on February 6 and are currently experiencing a rally to April 22, which suggests this rally's cycle is a bit longer than in 2022.
In fact, 2018 was a gradual downtrend, whereas 2022 and 2026 saw BTC plummet to a bottom quickly, likely due to a consensus on the bear market; the subsequent rallies were part of the consolidation.
As I analyzed before, this drop is happening faster than in 2022, but that doesn't mean the consolidation time will be faster; it might actually stretch the consolidation period longer to make up for about a year of the bear market cycle. So, I'm not ready to short just yet.
╰✦ Converging Daily Chart
On another note, from the perspective of the rally pattern, it somewhat resembles 2018, with the daily MA25 crossing over MA99 forming a golden cross, and MA25 is also about to cross.
However, during the last phase of MA7's uptrend in 2018, the daily chart was already showing a downtrend.
Currently, the daily chart is in a converging trend, so we can't confirm a downtrend just yet.
┈➤ In Conclusion
Big Tony @xtony1314 posted yesterday saying, "Bitcoin is waiting for the US stock market to drop," and I resonate with that.
BTC's bullish momentum is waning, but it's not dropping yet; it indeed seems to be waiting for the stock market.
I've sold off my spot positions, but I plan to open a short once a clearer downward signal appears.
We'll discuss other bearish logic later; one article can't cover all angles.
Looking back at the bear markets of 2018 and 2022, both had a rally.
┈➤ False Breakouts in the Bear Market
In 2022, the daily MA25 approached MA99 but failed to break above, even struggling to surpass MA7.
In 2018, the daily MA25 and MA7 both crossed above MA99, but that was also a false breakout, and it quickly dipped again. By the time MA25 crossed, BTC was already on a downtrend.
It's not entirely a case of seeking the sword from the boat; bear market sentiment needs time to heal, and the major funds also need time to accumulate. This logic remains unchanged.
Therefore, even though there's a demand for a rally in a bear market, if the main players haven't accumulated enough chips, it's tough to flip to a bull market so quickly.
┈➤ Why wait a few more days?
╰✦ There might be a longer consolidation period to compensate for the length of the bear market.
From the overall trend of the first half of the bear market, this pattern looks more like 2022. The stage bottom was on June 18, 2022, followed by a gradual rally, peaking on August 15.
This time, we hit the stage bottom on February 6 and are currently experiencing a rally to April 22, which suggests this rally's cycle is a bit longer than in 2022.
In fact, 2018 was a gradual downtrend, whereas 2022 and 2026 saw BTC plummet to a bottom quickly, likely due to a consensus on the bear market; the subsequent rallies were part of the consolidation.
As I analyzed before, this drop is happening faster than in 2022, but that doesn't mean the consolidation time will be faster; it might actually stretch the consolidation period longer to make up for about a year of the bear market cycle. So, I'm not ready to short just yet.
╰✦ Converging Daily Chart
On another note, from the perspective of the rally pattern, it somewhat resembles 2018, with the daily MA25 crossing over MA99 forming a golden cross, and MA25 is also about to cross.
However, during the last phase of MA7's uptrend in 2018, the daily chart was already showing a downtrend.
Currently, the daily chart is in a converging trend, so we can't confirm a downtrend just yet.
┈➤ In Conclusion
Big Tony @xtony1314 posted yesterday saying, "Bitcoin is waiting for the US stock market to drop," and I resonate with that.
BTC's bullish momentum is waning, but it's not dropping yet; it indeed seems to be waiting for the stock market.
I've sold off my spot positions, but I plan to open a short once a clearer downward signal appears.
We'll discuss other bearish logic later; one article can't cover all angles.
Short Logic One: Seeking the Sword from the Boat
Looking back at the bear markets of 2018 and 2022, both had a rally.
┈➤ False Breakouts in the Bear Market
In 2022, the daily MA25 approached MA99 but failed to break above, even struggling to surpass MA7.
In 2018, the daily MA25 and MA7 both crossed above MA99, but that was also a false breakout, and it quickly dipped again. By the time MA25 crossed, BTC was already on a downtrend.
It's not entirely a case of seeking the sword from the boat; bear market sentiment needs time to heal, and the major funds also need time to accumulate. This logic remains unchanged.
Therefore, even though there's a demand for a rally in a bear market, if the main players haven't accumulated enough chips, it's tough to flip to a bull market so quickly.
┈➤ Why wait a few more days?
╰✦ There might be a longer consolidation period to compensate for the length of the bear market.
From the overall trend of the first half of the bear market, this pattern looks more like 2022. The stage bottom was on June 18, 2022, followed by a gradual rally, peaking on August 15.
This time, we hit the stage bottom on February 6 and are currently experiencing a rally to April 22, which suggests this rally's cycle is a bit longer than in 2022.
In fact, 2018 was a gradual downtrend, whereas 2022 and 2026 saw BTC plummet to a bottom quickly, likely due to a consensus on the bear market; the subsequent rallies were part of the consolidation.
As I analyzed before, this drop is happening faster than in 2022, but that doesn't mean the consolidation time will be faster; it might actually stretch the consolidation period longer to make up for about a year of the bear market cycle. So, I'm not ready to short just yet.
╰✦ Converging Daily Chart
On another note, from the perspective of the rally pattern, it somewhat resembles 2018, with the daily MA25 crossing over MA99 forming a golden cross, and MA25 is also about to cross.
However, during the last phase of MA7's uptrend in 2018, the daily chart was already showing a downtrend.
Currently, the daily chart is in a converging trend, so we can't confirm a downtrend just yet.
┈➤ In Conclusion
Big Tony @xtony1314 posted yesterday saying, "Bitcoin is waiting for the US stock market to drop," and I resonate with that.
BTC's bullish momentum is waning, but it's not dropping yet; it indeed seems to be waiting for the stock market.
I've sold off my spot positions, but I plan to open a short once a clearer downward signal appears.
We'll discuss other bearish logic later; one article can't cover all angles.
Looking back at the bear markets of 2018 and 2022, both had a rally.
┈➤ False Breakouts in the Bear Market
In 2022, the daily MA25 approached MA99 but failed to break above, even struggling to surpass MA7.
In 2018, the daily MA25 and MA7 both crossed above MA99, but that was also a false breakout, and it quickly dipped again. By the time MA25 crossed, BTC was already on a downtrend.
It's not entirely a case of seeking the sword from the boat; bear market sentiment needs time to heal, and the major funds also need time to accumulate. This logic remains unchanged.
Therefore, even though there's a demand for a rally in a bear market, if the main players haven't accumulated enough chips, it's tough to flip to a bull market so quickly.
┈➤ Why wait a few more days?
╰✦ There might be a longer consolidation period to compensate for the length of the bear market.
From the overall trend of the first half of the bear market, this pattern looks more like 2022. The stage bottom was on June 18, 2022, followed by a gradual rally, peaking on August 15.
This time, we hit the stage bottom on February 6 and are currently experiencing a rally to April 22, which suggests this rally's cycle is a bit longer than in 2022.
In fact, 2018 was a gradual downtrend, whereas 2022 and 2026 saw BTC plummet to a bottom quickly, likely due to a consensus on the bear market; the subsequent rallies were part of the consolidation.
As I analyzed before, this drop is happening faster than in 2022, but that doesn't mean the consolidation time will be faster; it might actually stretch the consolidation period longer to make up for about a year of the bear market cycle. So, I'm not ready to short just yet.
╰✦ Converging Daily Chart
On another note, from the perspective of the rally pattern, it somewhat resembles 2018, with the daily MA25 crossing over MA99 forming a golden cross, and MA25 is also about to cross.
However, during the last phase of MA7's uptrend in 2018, the daily chart was already showing a downtrend.
Currently, the daily chart is in a converging trend, so we can't confirm a downtrend just yet.
┈➤ In Conclusion
Big Tony @xtony1314 posted yesterday saying, "Bitcoin is waiting for the US stock market to drop," and I resonate with that.
BTC's bullish momentum is waning, but it's not dropping yet; it indeed seems to be waiting for the stock market.
I've sold off my spot positions, but I plan to open a short once a clearer downward signal appears.
We'll discuss other bearish logic later; one article can't cover all angles.
Hey crypto fam: Stock tokens/Oil/Gold and Silver contract traders, check this out:
Binance TradFi contract trading competition, with a weekly total reward of up to 360,000 USDT!
➤ Event Timing: Weekly, for a total of 4 rounds
2026/04/21 08:00 – 2026/04/28 07:59
2026/04/28 08:00 – 2026/05/05 07:59
2026/05/05 08:00 – 2026/05/12 07:59
2026/05/12 08:00 – 2026/05/19 07:59
➤ Event Details
◾
TradFi contract sprint (excluding Gold and Silver TradFi contracts)
◾
Gold and Silver contract sprint
➤ Reward Eligibility
Rewards will go to the top 500 traders by trading volume each week.
As of April 24th, 7:59 AM, the trading volume of the 500th participant was less than 63,000 bucks.
➤ Total Rewards
For both events (TradFi and Gold/Silver), if total trading volume does not exceed 7 billion USDT:
Total reward for TradFi contract sprint: 120,000 USDT
Total reward for Gold/Silver contract sprint: 60,000 USDT
If total trading volume reaches 7 billion USDT:
Total reward for TradFi contract sprint: 270,000 USDT
Total reward for Gold/Silver contract sprint: 90,000 USDT
This week's total trading volume has already hit 7 billion USDT.
➤ User Rewards
Participants in the top 500 will share the rewards based on trading volume.
➤ Double Dip
You can also join the 'Contract Master Arena', with a total reward of $1 million.
The 'Contract Master Arena' ranks users based on Return on Investment (ROI), Profit and Loss (PnL), or trading volume. The top 100 can earn points.
Don't forget to participate in daily tasks for more points.
➤ Important Notes
◾
Gold and Silver trading is a separate event from others.
◾
If you get a message saying 'Region not available', change the node location of your internet tool.
◾
Sign up before trading! Sign up before trading! Sign up before trading!
There are three events in total: TradFi contract sprint, Gold/Silver contract, and Contract Master Arena.
Sign up for the TradFi contract sprint: https://binance.com/activity/trading-competition/tradfisprint-2026wk1-new
Sign up for the Gold/Silver contract sprint: https://binance.com/activity/trading-competition/goldsilversprint-2026wk1-new
Contract Master Arena (scroll to the bottom of this page to do daily tasks): https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/futures-activity/futures-arena
Binance TradFi contract trading competition, with a weekly total reward of up to 360,000 USDT!
➤ Event Timing: Weekly, for a total of 4 rounds
2026/04/21 08:00 – 2026/04/28 07:59
2026/04/28 08:00 – 2026/05/05 07:59
2026/05/05 08:00 – 2026/05/12 07:59
2026/05/12 08:00 – 2026/05/19 07:59
➤ Event Details
◾
TradFi contract sprint (excluding Gold and Silver TradFi contracts)
◾
Gold and Silver contract sprint
➤ Reward Eligibility
Rewards will go to the top 500 traders by trading volume each week.
As of April 24th, 7:59 AM, the trading volume of the 500th participant was less than 63,000 bucks.
➤ Total Rewards
For both events (TradFi and Gold/Silver), if total trading volume does not exceed 7 billion USDT:
Total reward for TradFi contract sprint: 120,000 USDT
Total reward for Gold/Silver contract sprint: 60,000 USDT
If total trading volume reaches 7 billion USDT:
Total reward for TradFi contract sprint: 270,000 USDT
Total reward for Gold/Silver contract sprint: 90,000 USDT
This week's total trading volume has already hit 7 billion USDT.
➤ User Rewards
Participants in the top 500 will share the rewards based on trading volume.
➤ Double Dip
You can also join the 'Contract Master Arena', with a total reward of $1 million.
The 'Contract Master Arena' ranks users based on Return on Investment (ROI), Profit and Loss (PnL), or trading volume. The top 100 can earn points.
Don't forget to participate in daily tasks for more points.
➤ Important Notes
◾
Gold and Silver trading is a separate event from others.
◾
If you get a message saying 'Region not available', change the node location of your internet tool.
◾
Sign up before trading! Sign up before trading! Sign up before trading!
There are three events in total: TradFi contract sprint, Gold/Silver contract, and Contract Master Arena.
Sign up for the TradFi contract sprint: https://binance.com/activity/trading-competition/tradfisprint-2026wk1-new
Sign up for the Gold/Silver contract sprint: https://binance.com/activity/trading-competition/goldsilversprint-2026wk1-new
Contract Master Arena (scroll to the bottom of this page to do daily tasks): https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/futures-activity/futures-arena
Is now the best time to short?
First off, I'm also leaning bearish, and even the US stock market has a slight bearish sentiment, but it's not fully confirmed yet. (We'll analyze this more later)
However, the price of USDT is showing a slight downtrend, while its market cap continues to grow.
Personally, I'm planning to wait and see from Friday to Sunday. On Friday, I'll mainly be watching the US stock market, and over the weekend, I'll gauge the crypto sentiment without the influence of US stocks.
First off, I'm also leaning bearish, and even the US stock market has a slight bearish sentiment, but it's not fully confirmed yet. (We'll analyze this more later)
However, the price of USDT is showing a slight downtrend, while its market cap continues to grow.
Personally, I'm planning to wait and see from Friday to Sunday. On Friday, I'll mainly be watching the US stock market, and over the weekend, I'll gauge the crypto sentiment without the influence of US stocks.
Why do we say SBF is just an average Joe? Everyone, beware of those high ROI flexes!!!!!!
You can check out the average ROI calculated by Grok for SBF, which is only 360% (4.6x).
Do you still think SBF is a genius?
Note:
First, this is the average ROI to date, not annually.
Second, since some investments have gone to zero, they can only count as -100%, and you can't lose more than that, so it doesn't really reflect the actual risk level.
So SBF resembles those high ROI KOLs in the crypto space! They only show off the gains, but when they lose, they don’t mention it.
SBF might not be as savvy as those high ROI KOLs.
After all, those high ROI KOLs usually don't invest in as many assets; typically, a KOL might invest in ten projects at most.
SBF, on the other hand, has invested in 400-500 projects, which means a larger number of investments and higher risk. Given this premise, it's highly likely to encounter high ROI returns.
We can't just focus on his high ROI investments!
Including those posts on Twitter flaunting high returns, we need to be very cautious!
You can check out the average ROI calculated by Grok for SBF, which is only 360% (4.6x).
Do you still think SBF is a genius?
Note:
First, this is the average ROI to date, not annually.
Second, since some investments have gone to zero, they can only count as -100%, and you can't lose more than that, so it doesn't really reflect the actual risk level.
So SBF resembles those high ROI KOLs in the crypto space! They only show off the gains, but when they lose, they don’t mention it.
SBF might not be as savvy as those high ROI KOLs.
After all, those high ROI KOLs usually don't invest in as many assets; typically, a KOL might invest in ten projects at most.
SBF, on the other hand, has invested in 400-500 projects, which means a larger number of investments and higher risk. Given this premise, it's highly likely to encounter high ROI returns.
We can't just focus on his high ROI investments!
Including those posts on Twitter flaunting high returns, we need to be very cautious!
TVBee
·
--
Those who think SBF is an investment genius are actually just thinking like retail traders!
Investing in the secondary market definitely requires vision.
But the primary market is a different game; it's more about connections, resources, and information asymmetry.
If we could get into that circle, we might also invest in those projects. At the very least, other big players in that circle wouldn't be losing to SBF.
We should never assume that SBF is some kind of investment genius just for that reason!!!!
Investing in the secondary market definitely requires vision.
But the primary market is a different game; it's more about connections, resources, and information asymmetry.
If we could get into that circle, we might also invest in those projects. At the very least, other big players in that circle wouldn't be losing to SBF.
We should never assume that SBF is some kind of investment genius just for that reason!!!!
Those who think SBF is an investment genius are actually just thinking like retail traders!
Investing in the secondary market definitely requires vision.
But the primary market is a different game; it's more about connections, resources, and information asymmetry.
If we could get into that circle, we might also invest in those projects. At the very least, other big players in that circle wouldn't be losing to SBF.
We should never assume that SBF is some kind of investment genius just for that reason!!!!
Investing in the secondary market definitely requires vision.
But the primary market is a different game; it's more about connections, resources, and information asymmetry.
If we could get into that circle, we might also invest in those projects. At the very least, other big players in that circle wouldn't be losing to SBF.
We should never assume that SBF is some kind of investment genius just for that reason!!!!
Logic's a solid play! Last year I dropped a note in the group, saying don't use Quick Connect!! Yet some folks still went ahead.
Recently, Quick Connect's been acting up, and I reminded them I said so last year. They replied they didn't catch that because I didn't break it down why…
Logic's a solid play! When someone tells us to use something, it's definitely worth asking why.
But when someone says not to use something, it's better to—better safe than sorry!
As for why Quick Connect isn't recommended, let's hear your thoughts!
Recently, Quick Connect's been acting up, and I reminded them I said so last year. They replied they didn't catch that because I didn't break it down why…
Logic's a solid play! When someone tells us to use something, it's definitely worth asking why.
But when someone says not to use something, it's better to—better safe than sorry!
As for why Quick Connect isn't recommended, let's hear your thoughts!
New Binance trading event, total rewards around $4 million
Trading tokens: CHIP,
Trading pairs: CHIP/USDT, CHIP/USDC
Event duration: April 22, 19:00 ~ May 13, 19:00 (Beijing time)
CHIP, from the USD .AI project, pumped to around $0.1 after listing on Binance spot, currently with an FDV of 1B, ranked 216 by market cap.
➤ Event One
◾ Total prize pool: 8,000,000 CHIP (estimated value around $800,000)
◾ Event rewards: Each participant randomly receives 40~240 CHIP token vouchers (average 100 CHIP per person)
◾ Eligibility: The top 80,000 users with a trading volume exceeding $500 (buys and sells both count)
➤ Event Two
◾ Total prize pool: 32,000,000 CHIP (estimated value around $3.2 million)
◾ Event rewards: Divided based on trading volume (each participant rewarded no more than 40,000 CHIP), rewards issued in the form of token vouchers
◾ Eligibility: Users with a trading volume exceeding $1,000
➤ Important Notes
◾ Token vouchers can be claimed at the "Rewards Center"; make sure to do this within 21 days, as vouchers expire after that.
◾ All trading volumes enjoying zero transaction fees will not be counted towards the trading volume.
◾ If you encounter "region not available", try changing the node location of your internet tool.
◾ Sign up before trading! Sign up before trading! Sign up before trading!
Important things said three times, signup link:
CHIP现货活动报名链接
Trading tokens: CHIP,
Trading pairs: CHIP/USDT, CHIP/USDC
Event duration: April 22, 19:00 ~ May 13, 19:00 (Beijing time)
CHIP, from the USD .AI project, pumped to around $0.1 after listing on Binance spot, currently with an FDV of 1B, ranked 216 by market cap.
➤ Event One
◾ Total prize pool: 8,000,000 CHIP (estimated value around $800,000)
◾ Event rewards: Each participant randomly receives 40~240 CHIP token vouchers (average 100 CHIP per person)
◾ Eligibility: The top 80,000 users with a trading volume exceeding $500 (buys and sells both count)
➤ Event Two
◾ Total prize pool: 32,000,000 CHIP (estimated value around $3.2 million)
◾ Event rewards: Divided based on trading volume (each participant rewarded no more than 40,000 CHIP), rewards issued in the form of token vouchers
◾ Eligibility: Users with a trading volume exceeding $1,000
➤ Important Notes
◾ Token vouchers can be claimed at the "Rewards Center"; make sure to do this within 21 days, as vouchers expire after that.
◾ All trading volumes enjoying zero transaction fees will not be counted towards the trading volume.
◾ If you encounter "region not available", try changing the node location of your internet tool.
◾ Sign up before trading! Sign up before trading! Sign up before trading!
Important things said three times, signup link:
CHIP现货活动报名链接
Three Types of Market Manipulators in Crypto
Type One: External Influencers
Represented by figures like Trump and Musk, these manipulators mainly operate outside the crypto space, leveraging their influence to casually profit in the crypto market.
Their impact is significant, not only creating bearish sentiments but occasionally generating some bullish vibes as well.
Type Two: Internal Influencers
Entities like ZachXBT and major media outlets intentionally or unintentionally release certain news or so-called investigations, providing potential opportunities from short-term news flow.
These manipulators primarily create bearish conditions but sometimes drop fake news to create fleeting bullish moments, though it's unclear if this is intentional or not, and their influence is moderate.
Type Three: North Korean Hackers
Hackers who steal crypto often get traced back through centralized exchanges and are likely to return a majority of the funds, leaving a portion as a sort of white hat reward. Thus, the impact of typical hackers is relatively limited.
However, North Korean hackers are an exception. Due to their skills and anonymity, they operate with impunity, stealing funds from the crypto industry.
I asked Grok, and he replied, "By the end of 2025, North Korean-linked hackers have stolen about $6.75 billion in cryptocurrency (lower estimate)." This is still a conservative estimate. "In 2025 alone, they set a record by stealing $2.02 billion."
Since 2025, the appetite of North Korean hackers has only grown. I sincerely advise all project teams not to harbor any false hopes; even the tiniest vulnerability can be exploited.
North Korean hackers directly siphon funds from crypto, continuously shaking investor confidence in the market, and have never brought any bullish sentiments to the industry.
A genuine suggestion for North Korean hackers: leave some room. If you crush this industry, where will you go to steal crypto next?
Type One: External Influencers
Represented by figures like Trump and Musk, these manipulators mainly operate outside the crypto space, leveraging their influence to casually profit in the crypto market.
Their impact is significant, not only creating bearish sentiments but occasionally generating some bullish vibes as well.
Type Two: Internal Influencers
Entities like ZachXBT and major media outlets intentionally or unintentionally release certain news or so-called investigations, providing potential opportunities from short-term news flow.
These manipulators primarily create bearish conditions but sometimes drop fake news to create fleeting bullish moments, though it's unclear if this is intentional or not, and their influence is moderate.
Type Three: North Korean Hackers
Hackers who steal crypto often get traced back through centralized exchanges and are likely to return a majority of the funds, leaving a portion as a sort of white hat reward. Thus, the impact of typical hackers is relatively limited.
However, North Korean hackers are an exception. Due to their skills and anonymity, they operate with impunity, stealing funds from the crypto industry.
I asked Grok, and he replied, "By the end of 2025, North Korean-linked hackers have stolen about $6.75 billion in cryptocurrency (lower estimate)." This is still a conservative estimate. "In 2025 alone, they set a record by stealing $2.02 billion."
Since 2025, the appetite of North Korean hackers has only grown. I sincerely advise all project teams not to harbor any false hopes; even the tiniest vulnerability can be exploited.
North Korean hackers directly siphon funds from crypto, continuously shaking investor confidence in the market, and have never brought any bullish sentiments to the industry.
A genuine suggestion for North Korean hackers: leave some room. If you crush this industry, where will you go to steal crypto next?
Risk and return in a bull market may be returns, while risk and return in a bear market is risk!
Recently, two hot topics have exploded - RAVE and AAVE are both like this, the difference is that the former is actively ambushed, and the losses of traders are most likely sunk costs.
The latter is passively implicated, and users' funds may at least receive partial compensation.
Umbrella staker itself is the role that first bears the bad debt risk in the AAVE ecosystem. Unless all funds are recovered or Kelp and Layerzero are willing to compensate in full, Umbrella staker cannot recover all losses. If some funds can be recovered or compensated, it will also first compensate the losses of deposit users. Therefore, Umbrella staker actually faces extremely high risk exposure in a bear market environment.
Even ordinary deposit users of AAVE face considerable risks.
So, the next sentence is very cliché, but it might really be useful: the core essence in a bear market is to be cautious; when determining a shift to a bear market, we should not think about how to earn more in a bear market, but rather think about ways to minimize risks in a bear market.
On one hand, major funds can be concentrated from small exchanges to large platforms. In 2022, most of Bee Brother's funds were in Anyin, and fortunately transferred the funds to Binance before Anyin closed, avoiding the collapse of Anyin.
Among commonly used exchanges, Binance has not had any security issues with funds over the years.
On the other hand, in the selection of financial products, during a bear market, it may be necessary to shift most of the finances from high-yield products to stable financial products.
Before the UST depeg in 2022, a friend had a large amount of funds in UST financial products and asked Bee Brother later; Bee Brother advised him to switch. Unexpectedly, just a week after he cleared out UST, Luna collapsed.
So, Bee Brother currently almost dares not participate in on-chain finance.
Currently, there are 5000RLUSD participating in principal-protected earning coins on Binance, with an annualized return rate of 8%, basically earning 1U daily; the downside is the limit of 5000U.
The other USDT and USD1 are about half each. Binance's USD1 financial activity currently estimates an annualized return rate of 5.8%. The first advantage is that there is no limit, and the second advantage is that the USD1 activity on Binance has been ongoing for 4 months since last Christmas, and it may continue.
Recently, two hot topics have exploded - RAVE and AAVE are both like this, the difference is that the former is actively ambushed, and the losses of traders are most likely sunk costs.
The latter is passively implicated, and users' funds may at least receive partial compensation.
Umbrella staker itself is the role that first bears the bad debt risk in the AAVE ecosystem. Unless all funds are recovered or Kelp and Layerzero are willing to compensate in full, Umbrella staker cannot recover all losses. If some funds can be recovered or compensated, it will also first compensate the losses of deposit users. Therefore, Umbrella staker actually faces extremely high risk exposure in a bear market environment.
Even ordinary deposit users of AAVE face considerable risks.
So, the next sentence is very cliché, but it might really be useful: the core essence in a bear market is to be cautious; when determining a shift to a bear market, we should not think about how to earn more in a bear market, but rather think about ways to minimize risks in a bear market.
On one hand, major funds can be concentrated from small exchanges to large platforms. In 2022, most of Bee Brother's funds were in Anyin, and fortunately transferred the funds to Binance before Anyin closed, avoiding the collapse of Anyin.
Among commonly used exchanges, Binance has not had any security issues with funds over the years.
On the other hand, in the selection of financial products, during a bear market, it may be necessary to shift most of the finances from high-yield products to stable financial products.
Before the UST depeg in 2022, a friend had a large amount of funds in UST financial products and asked Bee Brother later; Bee Brother advised him to switch. Unexpectedly, just a week after he cleared out UST, Luna collapsed.
So, Bee Brother currently almost dares not participate in on-chain finance.
Currently, there are 5000RLUSD participating in principal-protected earning coins on Binance, with an annualized return rate of 8%, basically earning 1U daily; the downside is the limit of 5000U.
The other USDT and USD1 are about half each. Binance's USD1 financial activity currently estimates an annualized return rate of 5.8%. The first advantage is that there is no limit, and the second advantage is that the USD1 activity on Binance has been ongoing for 4 months since last Christmas, and it may continue.
TVBee
·
--
Rave once again brings attention back to fundamental analysis,
maybe coins that cannot be held for long are also not suitable for short play.
Rave can be compared to another meme coin MYX, both are capable of driving the market.
Both projects have launched on Binance Alpha, and Rave has even been listed on Coinbase.
┈➤ Products
First, in terms of product positioning, RaveDAO claims to be a global community that integrates music, technology, and philanthropy.
MYX is a Prep DEX and liquidity infrastructure.
In contrast, MYX's products are relatively easy to understand, while Rave is somewhat abstract.
MYX's products are usable and also have an ecosystem. Rave can connect to the Web3 ticketing platform RLVR, which has some ecosystems.
┈➤ Technology
MYX has a codebase with low update frequency, while RaveDao did not find an open-source codebase, only a white paper. (Wanted to take a screenshot, but there was really nothing to capture.)
┈➤ Audit
MYX has been audited 7 times by Peckshield and SlowMist, auditing the protocol's code.
Rave only has one audit report from PeckShield, and the audit object is the RAVE token. As for the specific audit structure, it may not be too important.
┈➤ Financing
MYX includes seed and strategic round financing, with investment institutions including Hongbin Capital, OKEx, Consenss, and many others.
Bee Brother couldn't find Rave's financing information on various platforms or through Google search.
┈➤ Final Notes
In contrast, Rave's narrative is somewhat abstract, and the product is basically a vacuum, raising doubts about the motivation behind the Rave project.
MYX, although the operation is somewhat similar, still has long-term development motivations and actions.
MYX has several institutional financings, and MYX, when operating, must consider the reputation and goodwill of these institutions.
However, Rave does not have this concern.
So we can see that RAVE and MYX are somewhat similar when rising. But they are completely different when falling.
MYX gradually declines, with second and third phases. RAVE has dropped completely, and it is still uncertain whether there will be a second phase.
Thus, this has always been Bee Brother's logic: if a coin cannot be held for long, it cannot be played short either.
maybe coins that cannot be held for long are also not suitable for short play.
Rave can be compared to another meme coin MYX, both are capable of driving the market.
Both projects have launched on Binance Alpha, and Rave has even been listed on Coinbase.
┈➤ Products
First, in terms of product positioning, RaveDAO claims to be a global community that integrates music, technology, and philanthropy.
MYX is a Prep DEX and liquidity infrastructure.
In contrast, MYX's products are relatively easy to understand, while Rave is somewhat abstract.
MYX's products are usable and also have an ecosystem. Rave can connect to the Web3 ticketing platform RLVR, which has some ecosystems.
┈➤ Technology
MYX has a codebase with low update frequency, while RaveDao did not find an open-source codebase, only a white paper. (Wanted to take a screenshot, but there was really nothing to capture.)
┈➤ Audit
MYX has been audited 7 times by Peckshield and SlowMist, auditing the protocol's code.
Rave only has one audit report from PeckShield, and the audit object is the RAVE token. As for the specific audit structure, it may not be too important.
┈➤ Financing
MYX includes seed and strategic round financing, with investment institutions including Hongbin Capital, OKEx, Consenss, and many others.
Bee Brother couldn't find Rave's financing information on various platforms or through Google search.
┈➤ Final Notes
In contrast, Rave's narrative is somewhat abstract, and the product is basically a vacuum, raising doubts about the motivation behind the Rave project.
MYX, although the operation is somewhat similar, still has long-term development motivations and actions.
MYX has several institutional financings, and MYX, when operating, must consider the reputation and goodwill of these institutions.
However, Rave does not have this concern.
So we can see that RAVE and MYX are somewhat similar when rising. But they are completely different when falling.
MYX gradually declines, with second and third phases. RAVE has dropped completely, and it is still uncertain whether there will be a second phase.
Thus, this has always been Bee Brother's logic: if a coin cannot be held for long, it cannot be played short either.
Rave once again brings attention back to fundamental analysis,
maybe coins that cannot be held for long are also not suitable for short play.
Rave can be compared to another meme coin MYX, both are capable of driving the market.
Both projects have launched on Binance Alpha, and Rave has even been listed on Coinbase.
┈➤ Products
First, in terms of product positioning, RaveDAO claims to be a global community that integrates music, technology, and philanthropy.
MYX is a Prep DEX and liquidity infrastructure.
In contrast, MYX's products are relatively easy to understand, while Rave is somewhat abstract.
MYX's products are usable and also have an ecosystem. Rave can connect to the Web3 ticketing platform RLVR, which has some ecosystems.
┈➤ Technology
MYX has a codebase with low update frequency, while RaveDao did not find an open-source codebase, only a white paper. (Wanted to take a screenshot, but there was really nothing to capture.)
┈➤ Audit
MYX has been audited 7 times by Peckshield and SlowMist, auditing the protocol's code.
Rave only has one audit report from PeckShield, and the audit object is the RAVE token. As for the specific audit structure, it may not be too important.
┈➤ Financing
MYX includes seed and strategic round financing, with investment institutions including Hongbin Capital, OKEx, Consenss, and many others.
Bee Brother couldn't find Rave's financing information on various platforms or through Google search.
┈➤ Final Notes
In contrast, Rave's narrative is somewhat abstract, and the product is basically a vacuum, raising doubts about the motivation behind the Rave project.
MYX, although the operation is somewhat similar, still has long-term development motivations and actions.
MYX has several institutional financings, and MYX, when operating, must consider the reputation and goodwill of these institutions.
However, Rave does not have this concern.
So we can see that RAVE and MYX are somewhat similar when rising. But they are completely different when falling.
MYX gradually declines, with second and third phases. RAVE has dropped completely, and it is still uncertain whether there will be a second phase.
Thus, this has always been Bee Brother's logic: if a coin cannot be held for long, it cannot be played short either.
maybe coins that cannot be held for long are also not suitable for short play.
Rave can be compared to another meme coin MYX, both are capable of driving the market.
Both projects have launched on Binance Alpha, and Rave has even been listed on Coinbase.
┈➤ Products
First, in terms of product positioning, RaveDAO claims to be a global community that integrates music, technology, and philanthropy.
MYX is a Prep DEX and liquidity infrastructure.
In contrast, MYX's products are relatively easy to understand, while Rave is somewhat abstract.
MYX's products are usable and also have an ecosystem. Rave can connect to the Web3 ticketing platform RLVR, which has some ecosystems.
┈➤ Technology
MYX has a codebase with low update frequency, while RaveDao did not find an open-source codebase, only a white paper. (Wanted to take a screenshot, but there was really nothing to capture.)
┈➤ Audit
MYX has been audited 7 times by Peckshield and SlowMist, auditing the protocol's code.
Rave only has one audit report from PeckShield, and the audit object is the RAVE token. As for the specific audit structure, it may not be too important.
┈➤ Financing
MYX includes seed and strategic round financing, with investment institutions including Hongbin Capital, OKEx, Consenss, and many others.
Bee Brother couldn't find Rave's financing information on various platforms or through Google search.
┈➤ Final Notes
In contrast, Rave's narrative is somewhat abstract, and the product is basically a vacuum, raising doubts about the motivation behind the Rave project.
MYX, although the operation is somewhat similar, still has long-term development motivations and actions.
MYX has several institutional financings, and MYX, when operating, must consider the reputation and goodwill of these institutions.
However, Rave does not have this concern.
So we can see that RAVE and MYX are somewhat similar when rising. But they are completely different when falling.
MYX gradually declines, with second and third phases. RAVE has dropped completely, and it is still uncertain whether there will be a second phase.
Thus, this has always been Bee Brother's logic: if a coin cannot be held for long, it cannot be played short either.
Since Trump took office, the US dollar has been almost continuously declining.
From taking office to imposing tariffs and the trade war, the dollar index fell for six months.
Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz caused oil prices to soar, and even petrodollars couldn't boost the dollar index.
Holding a full position in U is also not easy.
From taking office to imposing tariffs and the trade war, the dollar index fell for six months.
Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz caused oil prices to soar, and even petrodollars couldn't boost the dollar index.
Holding a full position in U is also not easy.
Trust me, AI is very knowledgeable, but it really isn't smart enough yet!
Brother Bee used PPT to generate a video, hoping the video could pause on the last page of the PPT for 30 seconds.
Let Gemini help think of a solution, Gemini let the slide switch, animation delay time...
Basically, Brother Bee thought of every method to set the time in the PPT software, but none of them worked.
In the end, Brother Bee came up with a solution himself, directly creating a 30-second animation and placing it outside the frame.
This way, when generating the video, the PPT must play this 30-second animation to completion, but there is no animation on the screen, so the video shows it pausing on the last page for 30 seconds.
🤣🤣🤣
Brother Bee is just an ordinary person with an IQ of 100, and even so, how about those high IQ groups with IQs between 120 and 150?
So friends, think more, work your brains, and you can still compete with AI for a while. Especially in the current environment of banning special software, those who can see this post are smart people!
Brother Bee used PPT to generate a video, hoping the video could pause on the last page of the PPT for 30 seconds.
Let Gemini help think of a solution, Gemini let the slide switch, animation delay time...
Basically, Brother Bee thought of every method to set the time in the PPT software, but none of them worked.
In the end, Brother Bee came up with a solution himself, directly creating a 30-second animation and placing it outside the frame.
This way, when generating the video, the PPT must play this 30-second animation to completion, but there is no animation on the screen, so the video shows it pausing on the last page for 30 seconds.
🤣🤣🤣
Brother Bee is just an ordinary person with an IQ of 100, and even so, how about those high IQ groups with IQs between 120 and 150?
So friends, think more, work your brains, and you can still compete with AI for a while. Especially in the current environment of banning special software, those who can see this post are smart people!
Last February, a brother asked how to exchange U on the Tron network to Solana, and the answer at that time was still the exchange.
In August, deBridge finally realized this need, connecting the Tron ecosystem and achieving integration with Solana and multiple EVM ecosystems.
In February this year, deBridge launched the MCP, a cross-chain module aimed at guiding and focusing on AI.
In April, after Tron just upgraded its quantum resistance technology, it quickly integrated deBridge MCP.
Developers and lobster users do not need to call APIs or even write code; they can express cross-chain or trading intentions in natural language within the AI Agent. For example, say to the AI Agent
"Transfer 500USDT from the Tron chain in 2 transactions to the Solana chain to exchange for SOL".
deBridge MCP will convert the user's intent into blockchain instructions.
Ultimately, the deBridge protocol executes the cross-chain exchange or transaction, of course, supporting anti-MEV, optimized routing, and low slippage, just like the user operating personally.
Since 2026, Tron has transferred a total of $87.41 million through deBridge, with an inflow of $142 million.
In August, deBridge finally realized this need, connecting the Tron ecosystem and achieving integration with Solana and multiple EVM ecosystems.
In February this year, deBridge launched the MCP, a cross-chain module aimed at guiding and focusing on AI.
In April, after Tron just upgraded its quantum resistance technology, it quickly integrated deBridge MCP.
Developers and lobster users do not need to call APIs or even write code; they can express cross-chain or trading intentions in natural language within the AI Agent. For example, say to the AI Agent
"Transfer 500USDT from the Tron chain in 2 transactions to the Solana chain to exchange for SOL".
deBridge MCP will convert the user's intent into blockchain instructions.
Ultimately, the deBridge protocol executes the cross-chain exchange or transaction, of course, supporting anti-MEV, optimized routing, and low slippage, just like the user operating personally.
Since 2026, Tron has transferred a total of $87.41 million through deBridge, with an inflow of $142 million.
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