First of all, the U.S. attack on Iran is definitely not for oil and has nothing to do with oil at all.

Secondly, the actual situation is more complicated than it appears on the surface. This article mainly discusses the trust crisis between the U.S. and Iran.

┈➤ For Iran, Trump was the first to breach the agreement.

In 2015, during Obama's presidency, the Iran nuclear deal required Iran to give up almost all of its enriched uranium, while simultaneously lifting financial sanctions on Iran.

However, after Trump took office in 2018, he breached the agreement and reimposed financial sanctions on Iran. (On the surface, it is generally believed that Trump was the first to breach. However, the 2015 Iran nuclear deal indeed had loopholes.)

Therefore, at present, Iran has limited trust in Trump.

Iran's concern is that if it abandons all nuclear weapons, wouldn’t the US or Israel feel more emboldened to attack Iran in the future?

┈➤ For Trump, the Iran nuclear agreement has loopholes

Under financial sanctions, Iran can still refine high-purity enriched uranium. This is due to two loopholes left by the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement.

╰✦ A large amount of uranium ore powder from Russia

At that time, Iran handed over almost all of its enriched uranium (11 tons) to Russia, which in exchange provided Iran with 140 tons of yellowcake (natural uranium ore powder). I asked AI, theoretically, this uranium ore powder can theoretically yield 1 ton of 60% enriched uranium, which allows Iran to still have certain materials to manufacture nuclear weapons.

╰✦ The centrifuge loophole: cannot produce, but can research

The Iran nuclear agreement requires Iran to only use the oldest and least efficient centrifuge, IR-1, but it does not state that Iran cannot research centrifuges.

From January to April 2018, Israel investigated and released a file stating that although Iran stopped refining enriched uranium, it was still secretly conducting research on centrifuges. Between 2015 and 2018, Iran was likely optimizing advanced centrifuges of the IR-6 and IR-8 types.

After Trump implemented financial sanctions in 2018, Iran quickly and efficiently mass-produced new models of centrifuges. By early December 2019, it had preliminarily achieved results in research on IR-9, and by April 10, 2021, it had realized the IR-9 centrifuge.

This is the key facility for Iran to purify high-grade enriched uranium. After the lifting of financial sanctions, Iran obtained funding through the export of crude oil.

This is the reason Trump violated the agreement in 2018; Trump believed that Iran still had the capability to research nuclear weapons, and lifting financial sanctions provided funding for Iran's nuclear weapon development.

Therefore, an agreement like that of 2015 is unlikely to be accepted by Trump.

Trump's concern is that once financial sanctions are lifted, Iran will have a source of funding, and he fears that it will secretly research or even manufacture nuclear weapons again.

┈➤ Written at last

The core contradiction of the US-Iran agreement is Iran's nuclear weapons and financial sanctions.

The key to nuclear weapons not only lies in enriched uranium but also includes the purification equipment for enriched uranium—centrifuges.

This is precisely a key loophole in the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, which Iran exploited, leading to Trump's breach.

This has created a trust crisis between the two sides. Coupled with factors like the Strait, the game between the two sides has become more complicated, making it very difficult to formulate a balanced agreement.

In addition, the trust issues between the two sides make the agreement even more challenging.