Bitcoin Market Weekly: The turbulence is nearing its end, and a medium-term downtrend is about to begin!
According to tradition, let's first look at a set of data:
1) Spot ETF institutions: Last week, there was a net inflow of $95 million, significantly shrinking net inflow funds, which indicates that the current willingness of ETF institutions to buy BTC is not strong. If the price falls below 60,000, it is estimated that ETF institutions will sell BTC in large quantities;
2) On the order book, the large amount of sell orders accumulated a few days ago has caused the BTC price to drop by 6,000 points. In the last two to three days, the amount of buy orders has been relatively small, limiting the potential for price rebounds;
3) On the daily chart, the 4th wave's consolidation has lasted for 43 days, and the upward trend of MACD is beginning to slow down. Once MACD forms a death cross, the dead cat bounce and consolidation of this 4th wave will be declared over. If the price falls below the lower boundary of this ascending channel around 65,000, a downward flag structure will also take shape, and the price will accelerate to around 60,000;
4) The bullish volume fluctuation curve on the four-hour chart has rebounded from 60,000 to 76,000 and now to around 70,000, showing signs of gradually declining bullish volume. The subsequent bullish counterattack is also nearing its end, unless there is significant good news, but it would only be the last struggle of the bulls.
Market summary:
1) The 4th wave rebound and consolidation on the weekly chart are nearing their end. A shift in the medium-term trend direction could happen at any time, possibly as early as next week, but at the latest, it will be delayed until around April 6. However, it will eventually come.
2) Once the price falls below 65,000, it will accelerate to 60,000, and then breaking below 60,000 towards 40,000 could also be seen. The medium-term downtrend for the 5th wave on the weekly chart may have quietly pressed the start button;
3) The war in the three Middle Eastern countries is escalating, with oil and the dollar index rising, while US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin are falling. If the Middle Eastern conflict does not ease or reach a ceasefire next week, this situation will continue. The sustained rise in oil prices will exacerbate global inflation and slow down global economic growth. This year, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may decrease or even disappear, market liquidity will gradually reduce, and the decline in US stocks and Bitcoin reaching new lows will become inevitable.
According to tradition, let's first look at a set of data:
1) Spot ETF institutions: Last week, there was a net inflow of $95 million, significantly shrinking net inflow funds, which indicates that the current willingness of ETF institutions to buy BTC is not strong. If the price falls below 60,000, it is estimated that ETF institutions will sell BTC in large quantities;
2) On the order book, the large amount of sell orders accumulated a few days ago has caused the BTC price to drop by 6,000 points. In the last two to three days, the amount of buy orders has been relatively small, limiting the potential for price rebounds;
3) On the daily chart, the 4th wave's consolidation has lasted for 43 days, and the upward trend of MACD is beginning to slow down. Once MACD forms a death cross, the dead cat bounce and consolidation of this 4th wave will be declared over. If the price falls below the lower boundary of this ascending channel around 65,000, a downward flag structure will also take shape, and the price will accelerate to around 60,000;
4) The bullish volume fluctuation curve on the four-hour chart has rebounded from 60,000 to 76,000 and now to around 70,000, showing signs of gradually declining bullish volume. The subsequent bullish counterattack is also nearing its end, unless there is significant good news, but it would only be the last struggle of the bulls.
Market summary:
1) The 4th wave rebound and consolidation on the weekly chart are nearing their end. A shift in the medium-term trend direction could happen at any time, possibly as early as next week, but at the latest, it will be delayed until around April 6. However, it will eventually come.
2) Once the price falls below 65,000, it will accelerate to 60,000, and then breaking below 60,000 towards 40,000 could also be seen. The medium-term downtrend for the 5th wave on the weekly chart may have quietly pressed the start button;
3) The war in the three Middle Eastern countries is escalating, with oil and the dollar index rising, while US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin are falling. If the Middle Eastern conflict does not ease or reach a ceasefire next week, this situation will continue. The sustained rise in oil prices will exacerbate global inflation and slow down global economic growth. This year, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may decrease or even disappear, market liquidity will gradually reduce, and the decline in US stocks and Bitcoin reaching new lows will become inevitable.