小龙先生
自然交易理论传承者，比特币行情分析师，建立了自然交易理论 、链上数据 和量价关系 的三维一体交易体系。梦想之一是做一名专业行情分析师和交易者，帮助更多小伙伴准确把握行情赚到钱。特别提醒：如果你不同意我分享的BTC行情预判和观点，你可以发表自己的观点，但不要对我进行人身攻击和诋毁谩骂，否则显得你的素质很差。
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《A Good Opportunity for Grassroots Comeback? Let You See Through Bitcoin's Bull and Bear for the Next Year, Grasp Trend Opportunities to Make Big Money》
Currently, Bitcoin is in a bear market, which has become a consensus among the public and institutions. I had already predicted on November 14, 2025, that Bitcoin would enter a bear market, and I provided the target price for Bitcoin's decline and its probability. At that time, I estimated the probability of Bitcoin's price dropping to around 58,000 to be 65%. Currently, the lowest spot price is 60,000, which is 2,000 points away from the predicted low. Interested friends can check the screenshot of that tweet:
Now, I will again predict the target price for Bitcoin's major bottom in this round of the bear market:
Probability of 45,000: 75%; Probability of 40,000: 85%; Probability of 38,000: 80%.
Now, I will again predict the target price for Bitcoin's major bottom in this round of the bear market:
Probability of 45,000: 75%; Probability of 40,000: 85%; Probability of 38,000: 80%.
MicroStrategy's chairman Michael J. Saylor is estimated to have taken the wrong medicine! He believes that by 2045, Bitcoin will rise to $13 million per coin! He must be overly obsessed with BTC and has gone crazy! I predict that from August to October this year, the price of Bitcoin will likely fall to $38,000 to $45,000. By then, Saylor will be so furious at this Bitcoin price that his eyes will pop out and his heart will be broken!
However, Bitcoin will welcome a bull market again in 2027 and 2028, when the price will likely rise to $180,000 to $200,000. In the long term, Bitcoin's price will definitely continue to fluctuate upwards, and by 2028, it will exceed MicroStrategy's overall holding average price of about $75,000. As for Saylor's prediction that Bitcoin will rise to $13 million per coin by 2045, that is extremely ridiculous and overly boastful! China has already developed a quantum computing operating system, and superconducting quantum computing and quantum communication are gradually evolving and upgrading. By around 2040, the superconducting quantum AI matrix will most likely decipher Bitcoin's so-called 256-bit encryption key.
The world's most loyal Bitcoin buyers have struck back again! The largest Bitcoin reserve company, MicroStrategy, has massively increased its holdings for two consecutive weeks, recently purchasing nearly 18,000 BTC at a price of about $70,946 per coin, costing over $1.28 billion. Previously, they acquired 3,015 coins at a cost of $67,700, totaling $204.1 million. All funds were raised from selling their own stocks, and to date, their total holdings have exceeded 738,000 coins, accounting for about 3.5% of the total BTC supply, with an overall holding average price of about $75,000.
However, Bitcoin will welcome a bull market again in 2027 and 2028, when the price will likely rise to $180,000 to $200,000. In the long term, Bitcoin's price will definitely continue to fluctuate upwards, and by 2028, it will exceed MicroStrategy's overall holding average price of about $75,000. As for Saylor's prediction that Bitcoin will rise to $13 million per coin by 2045, that is extremely ridiculous and overly boastful! China has already developed a quantum computing operating system, and superconducting quantum computing and quantum communication are gradually evolving and upgrading. By around 2040, the superconducting quantum AI matrix will most likely decipher Bitcoin's so-called 256-bit encryption key.
The world's most loyal Bitcoin buyers have struck back again! The largest Bitcoin reserve company, MicroStrategy, has massively increased its holdings for two consecutive weeks, recently purchasing nearly 18,000 BTC at a price of about $70,946 per coin, costing over $1.28 billion. Previously, they acquired 3,015 coins at a cost of $67,700, totaling $204.1 million. All funds were raised from selling their own stocks, and to date, their total holdings have exceeded 738,000 coins, accounting for about 3.5% of the total BTC supply, with an overall holding average price of about $75,000.
Let's talk about my prediction on whether BTC can break through the key resistance level of 74,500: the two key time nodes for the medium-term trend direction reversal are around March 19 and April 6.
First, let's look at the volume and on-chain data:
1) From the four-hour level of long and short volume and candlesticks, the short volume in these two days is obviously stronger than the long volume. The recent consecutive three four-hour candlesticks have shown long upper shadows. However, MicroStrategy has been buying Bitcoin continuously over the weekend, and a Japanese listed company also bought $245 million worth of Bitcoin over the weekend. The continuous buying by these institutions has prevented the price from falling.
MicroStrategy increased its holdings of 22,337 Bitcoins last week:
According to official news, MicroStrategy spent about $1.57 billion to acquire 22,337 BTC last week, with an average price of about $70,194. Latest data: MicroStrategy holds a total of 761,068 BTC, with a total investment of about $57.61 billion, and an average price of about $75,696.
2) On the order book, the amount of sell orders has been accumulating significantly larger amounts in recent days, greatly exceeding the amount of buy orders.
Although MicroStrategy and the Japanese listed company have been continuously buying Bitcoin over the weekend, the on-chain data and the four-hour candlesticks and volume tell me that this time Bitcoin is highly unlikely to break above 74,500, but is more likely to adjust down to around 65,500, and then choose to rebound upwards again, challenging the resistance price of 74,500.
In the third image, I have illustrated two possible future trajectories for Bitcoin, which is actually a simplified version of the three trajectories I had previously outlined, removing the first trajectory while retaining the second and third.
Regardless of how Bitcoin chooses between the two trajectories in the third image, the only difference is whether the height of the fourth wave rebound at the weekly level is 74,500 or 78,800. Ultimately, this will not change the direction of the medium-term downtrend. After the fourth wave rebound ends, BTC will face a terrifying crash in the fifth wave downtrend, with a target price of 40,000-45,000. Next, we only need to focus on the two key time nodes for the medium-term trend direction reversal: around March 19 and April 6.
First, let's look at the volume and on-chain data:
1) From the four-hour level of long and short volume and candlesticks, the short volume in these two days is obviously stronger than the long volume. The recent consecutive three four-hour candlesticks have shown long upper shadows. However, MicroStrategy has been buying Bitcoin continuously over the weekend, and a Japanese listed company also bought $245 million worth of Bitcoin over the weekend. The continuous buying by these institutions has prevented the price from falling.
MicroStrategy increased its holdings of 22,337 Bitcoins last week:
According to official news, MicroStrategy spent about $1.57 billion to acquire 22,337 BTC last week, with an average price of about $70,194. Latest data: MicroStrategy holds a total of 761,068 BTC, with a total investment of about $57.61 billion, and an average price of about $75,696.
2) On the order book, the amount of sell orders has been accumulating significantly larger amounts in recent days, greatly exceeding the amount of buy orders.
Although MicroStrategy and the Japanese listed company have been continuously buying Bitcoin over the weekend, the on-chain data and the four-hour candlesticks and volume tell me that this time Bitcoin is highly unlikely to break above 74,500, but is more likely to adjust down to around 65,500, and then choose to rebound upwards again, challenging the resistance price of 74,500.
In the third image, I have illustrated two possible future trajectories for Bitcoin, which is actually a simplified version of the three trajectories I had previously outlined, removing the first trajectory while retaining the second and third.
Regardless of how Bitcoin chooses between the two trajectories in the third image, the only difference is whether the height of the fourth wave rebound at the weekly level is 74,500 or 78,800. Ultimately, this will not change the direction of the medium-term downtrend. After the fourth wave rebound ends, BTC will face a terrifying crash in the fifth wave downtrend, with a target price of 40,000-45,000. Next, we only need to focus on the two key time nodes for the medium-term trend direction reversal: around March 19 and April 6.
Three price trends before the BTC medium-term downtrend changes:
Trend 1: Before March 17, the price attempts to reach 74,000 twice and fails. After March 17, BTC starts the medium-term downtrend; this trend is relatively simple, with a probability of 40%;
Trend 2: Around March 25, the price attempts to reach 74,000 for the third time and fails again. After three unsuccessful breakthroughs, there will surely be a significant drop, and BTC will begin the medium-term downtrend at the end of March; the oscillation period is close to two months, and this trend aligns with expectations and common sense, with a probability of 60%;
Trend 3: Around March 25, if the price successfully reaches 74,000 for the third time and stays above 74,000 for two consecutive days, BTC will aim for the second target price of 78,800 and build a top near 78,800 before the medium-term downtrend begins. This trend has an oscillation time of more than two months, with a probability of 50%, and the rebound is expected to end in early April, with the rebound peak of the weekly level's fourth wave stopping near 78,800.
This weekly level's fourth wave rebound, because the price fell to 60,000 on February 6, has seen significant buying power in the market, with high trading volume and bullish momentum. The oscillation period has been longer than expected, and the oscillation trend is relatively complex, so be prepared for a long-term bullish battle.
I still firmly believe: this is just a dead cat bounce of the fourth wave at the weekly level, and the subsequent fifth wave downtrend will likely see BTC prices fall to 40,000-45,000, with the real bottom of the bear market expected to appear around October.
The bear market continues, the deep bear has not yet arrived, keep going and persevere!
Trend 1: Before March 17, the price attempts to reach 74,000 twice and fails. After March 17, BTC starts the medium-term downtrend; this trend is relatively simple, with a probability of 40%;
Trend 2: Around March 25, the price attempts to reach 74,000 for the third time and fails again. After three unsuccessful breakthroughs, there will surely be a significant drop, and BTC will begin the medium-term downtrend at the end of March; the oscillation period is close to two months, and this trend aligns with expectations and common sense, with a probability of 60%;
Trend 3: Around March 25, if the price successfully reaches 74,000 for the third time and stays above 74,000 for two consecutive days, BTC will aim for the second target price of 78,800 and build a top near 78,800 before the medium-term downtrend begins. This trend has an oscillation time of more than two months, with a probability of 50%, and the rebound is expected to end in early April, with the rebound peak of the weekly level's fourth wave stopping near 78,800.
This weekly level's fourth wave rebound, because the price fell to 60,000 on February 6, has seen significant buying power in the market, with high trading volume and bullish momentum. The oscillation period has been longer than expected, and the oscillation trend is relatively complex, so be prepared for a long-term bullish battle.
I still firmly believe: this is just a dead cat bounce of the fourth wave at the weekly level, and the subsequent fifth wave downtrend will likely see BTC prices fall to 40,000-45,000, with the real bottom of the bear market expected to appear around October.
The bear market continues, the deep bear has not yet arrived, keep going and persevere!
Analysis and prediction of BTC's weekly market data and price trends, continuing wide fluctuations, April 6 is a key time node!
BTC's data and volume do not lie. As usual, let's first look at a set of data and volume:
Figure 1: Spot ETF institutions, with a net inflow of 767 million USD last week, and a net inflow of 180 million USD last Friday. Compared to the peak inflow of over 2 billion before October 11, the average weekly net inflow of funds in the last three weeks has been around 750 million, which can be described as being in a difficult position. Once the weekly net inflow turns to 0 or negative, this wave of the fourth wave rebound at the weekly level, which has been supported by spot ETF institutions, will basically come to an end.
Figure 2: Order book amount at four-hour level, from February 6 to today, the overall amount of buy and sell orders is evenly matched, and it can also be seen that neither side has shown a significant accumulation of funds. Therefore, the BTC price has experienced wide fluctuations from February 6 to March 15. However, this box-shaped fluctuation structure is likely to be broken soon.
Figure 1: Spot ETF institutions, with a net inflow of 767 million USD last week, and a net inflow of 180 million USD last Friday. Compared to the peak inflow of over 2 billion before October 11, the average weekly net inflow of funds in the last three weeks has been around 750 million, which can be described as being in a difficult position. Once the weekly net inflow turns to 0 or negative, this wave of the fourth wave rebound at the weekly level, which has been supported by spot ETF institutions, will basically come to an end.
Figure 2: Order book amount at four-hour level, from February 6 to today, the overall amount of buy and sell orders is evenly matched, and it can also be seen that neither side has shown a significant accumulation of funds. Therefore, the BTC price has experienced wide fluctuations from February 6 to March 15. However, this box-shaped fluctuation structure is likely to be broken soon.
$NIGHT coin is undervalued! Midnight Network unlocks new possibilities for Web3 privacy with rational privacy!
In the Web3 industry, privacy protection has always been a key focus, but there are not many projects that can truly achieve a balance between "privacy and compliance." Many privacy chains either focus solely on privacy, neglecting regulatory compliance, which makes practical application difficult; or they emphasize compliance too much, losing the core meaning of privacy protection. The emergence of Midnight Network just addresses this pain point. As a fourth-generation blockchain, it proposes the concept of "rational privacy," which is neither extreme nor compromising, and this is why I have always paid attention to it.
Many people may still not be clear about what Midnight Network actually does. Simply put, it is a platform specifically designed to solve the problem of excessive transparency in Web3 data, with the core being zero-knowledge proof (ZKPs) technology. Unlike some projects that complicate zero-knowledge proofs, Midnight's technology is more practical — we can complete all operations on the blockchain, such as trading and verifying information, without exposing our personal information or business secrets, thus ensuring privacy without affecting the normal process of transactions and verifications. This aspect is particularly useful for both enterprises and ordinary users. For example, in scenarios like compliance audits and identity management, DApps built with it can achieve data usability without visibility.
Many people may still not be clear about what Midnight Network actually does. Simply put, it is a platform specifically designed to solve the problem of excessive transparency in Web3 data, with the core being zero-knowledge proof (ZKPs) technology. Unlike some projects that complicate zero-knowledge proofs, Midnight's technology is more practical — we can complete all operations on the blockchain, such as trading and verifying information, without exposing our personal information or business secrets, thus ensuring privacy without affecting the normal process of transactions and verifications. This aspect is particularly useful for both enterprises and ordinary users. For example, in scenarios like compliance audits and identity management, DApps built with it can achieve data usability without visibility.
The support of Binance Square should not be underestimated! Today's $NIGHT coins have seen drastic price fluctuations!
The potential of the privacy track can be seen from how $ZEC rose from $20 to $750 back in the day, yet many people overlook the current potential targets. Currently, the price of $NIGHT is around $0.05, and the Midnight Network behind it, as a fourth-generation blockchain, emphasizes "rational privacy" which really hits the pain point—data in Web3 is too transparent, making it easy to leak personal and business information. With zero-knowledge proof technology, it allows us to verify transactions and confirm facts without exposing sensitive information, making it suitable for scenarios like compliance audits and identity management. Personally, I believe that $NIGHT is currently in an undervalued low price range, and with the mainnet approaching, its future potential is worth paying attention to. @MidnightNetwork #night $NIGHT
The potential of the privacy track can be seen from how $ZEC rose from $20 to $750 back in the day, yet many people overlook the current potential targets. Currently, the price of $NIGHT is around $0.05, and the Midnight Network behind it, as a fourth-generation blockchain, emphasizes "rational privacy" which really hits the pain point—data in Web3 is too transparent, making it easy to leak personal and business information. With zero-knowledge proof technology, it allows us to verify transactions and confirm facts without exposing sensitive information, making it suitable for scenarios like compliance audits and identity management. Personally, I believe that $NIGHT is currently in an undervalued low price range, and with the mainnet approaching, its future potential is worth paying attention to. @MidnightNetwork #night $NIGHT
The short position in Bitcoin continues to be held...
My personal prediction is that in March, BTC will continue to fluctuate widely and accumulate momentum. If the price attempts to break through the key resistance level of 74,000 for the third time and ultimately fails, then this round of fluctuation between 60,000 and 74,000 will come to an end, and a new medium-term downtrend will begin, with the price dropping below 60,000 and continuing to fall to the range of 40,000 to 45,000. If it rebounds to around 74,000 for the third time and successfully breaks above 74,000, then the next rebound target price will be around 78,800. Subsequently, BTC will form a phase top structure near 78,800, before starting a new medium-term downtrend. Let's wait and see.
My personal prediction is that in March, BTC will continue to fluctuate widely and accumulate momentum. If the price attempts to break through the key resistance level of 74,000 for the third time and ultimately fails, then this round of fluctuation between 60,000 and 74,000 will come to an end, and a new medium-term downtrend will begin, with the price dropping below 60,000 and continuing to fall to the range of 40,000 to 45,000. If it rebounds to around 74,000 for the third time and successfully breaks above 74,000, then the next rebound target price will be around 78,800. Subsequently, BTC will form a phase top structure near 78,800, before starting a new medium-term downtrend. Let's wait and see.
One kilowatt-hour, how to sell it from 0.5 yuan to 400 yuan? China hides the world's most powerful new business! This is absolutely something that will surprise you and leave you in awe of the huge profits!
Openclaw crayfish is extremely popular worldwide! Crayfish has also brought a great business to China---TOKEN computing power export! Exporting one kilowatt-hour only earns 0.5 yuan, but by injecting AI computing power, it transforms into Token, skyrocketing in value by 800 times! China refines massive surplus electricity into digital assets that are crazily sought after globally, without the need for coal transportation; when computing power and energy are combined, it creates a new hidden ace in foreign trade, this is the hardcore wealth code of the digital age!
Openclaw crayfish is extremely popular worldwide! Crayfish has also brought a great business to China---TOKEN computing power export! Exporting one kilowatt-hour only earns 0.5 yuan, but by injecting AI computing power, it transforms into Token, skyrocketing in value by 800 times! China refines massive surplus electricity into digital assets that are crazily sought after globally, without the need for coal transportation; when computing power and energy are combined, it creates a new hidden ace in foreign trade, this is the hardcore wealth code of the digital age!
Midnight Network: Building a New Multi-Chain Privacy Ecosystem for Web3 with Rational Privacy
At the moment when the Web3 ecosystem moves towards multi-chain integration, the issue of privacy leaks caused by excessive data transparency has become a core pain point in industry development. The emergence of Midnight Network provides a new solution to this dilemma. As an innovative project positioned as the fourth-generation blockchain, Midnight Network centers on "rational privacy," breaking the opposition between privacy and practicality, becoming a universal privacy layer that connects the multi-chain ecosystem, and reconstructing the value of privacy in the Web3 world.
The core mission of Midnight Network is to address the issue of personal information and trade secret leaks caused by the public transparency of data in Web3. The project relies on the zero-knowledge proof (ZKPs) technology system, particularly the recursive zk-SNARKs technology, to achieve the core function of "proof without exposure"—users can complete transaction verification, fact verification, and compliance proof without disclosing sensitive data, thus ensuring data privacy without affecting the normal operation of the ecosystem. This characteristic allows Midnight Network to support the construction of privacy-first DApps such as compliance auditing and identity management, transforming privacy protection from an "add-on feature" into the underlying logic of Web3 applications.
The core mission of Midnight Network is to address the issue of personal information and trade secret leaks caused by the public transparency of data in Web3. The project relies on the zero-knowledge proof (ZKPs) technology system, particularly the recursive zk-SNARKs technology, to achieve the core function of "proof without exposure"—users can complete transaction verification, fact verification, and compliance proof without disclosing sensitive data, thus ensuring data privacy without affecting the normal operation of the ecosystem. This characteristic allows Midnight Network to support the construction of privacy-first DApps such as compliance auditing and identity management, transforming privacy protection from an "add-on feature" into the underlying logic of Web3 applications.
The privacy track has already become a core hot sector in the digital currency field! $ZEC once skyrocketed from 20 dollars to a maximum of 750 dollars, directly igniting the entire privacy track market.
Currently, the price of this currency $NIGHT is only around 0.05 dollars, backed by Midnight Network—a project positioned as a fourth-generation blockchain, focusing on "rational privacy" and specifically addressing the pain points of data leakage caused by excessive transparency in the Web3 world. The project relies on zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) technology, allowing users to complete transactions and factual verifications without exposing sensitive business and personal information, while also supporting the construction of privacy-first DApps, covering key scenarios such as compliance audits and identity management.
$NIGHT coins are currently severely undervalued and are a high-quality target in the low-price range of the rational privacy track. I personally have high hopes for it when the next bull market arrives, expecting a strong explosion, so it's worth paying close attention to!
@MidnightNetwork #night $NIGHT
Currently, the price of this currency $NIGHT is only around 0.05 dollars, backed by Midnight Network—a project positioned as a fourth-generation blockchain, focusing on "rational privacy" and specifically addressing the pain points of data leakage caused by excessive transparency in the Web3 world. The project relies on zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) technology, allowing users to complete transactions and factual verifications without exposing sensitive business and personal information, while also supporting the construction of privacy-first DApps, covering key scenarios such as compliance audits and identity management.
$NIGHT coins are currently severely undervalued and are a high-quality target in the low-price range of the rational privacy track. I personally have high hopes for it when the next bull market arrives, expecting a strong explosion, so it's worth paying close attention to!
@MidnightNetwork #night $NIGHT
Oh my, this guy made $43,800 (about 310,000 RMB) just by sleeping!
Original text: My OpenClaw woke me up at 3:47 AM with a single message:
"Detected 6 markets that will settle in the next 90 minutes, while the US is still asleep, needing approval for a deployment of $12,000."
I typed "yes" and then fell back asleep. When I woke up, I found an extra $43,800, having run a bot looking for timezone arbitrage opportunities for 9 days.
What happened at 3:47 AM:
The bot detected 6 markets settling between 4 AM and 6 AM, distributed across different time zones.
- Total edge value detected: Potential value of $43,000
- Window period: 90 minutes in advance
Required funds: $12,000
My phone vibrated
I opened Telegram half-awake
Saw "Approve or miss"
Typed "yes"
I closed my eyes
7:30 AM - Woken up by a notification:
During the Asian/European early trading session, all six markets had settled.
American traders woke up to find the markets had closed.
I built a position at prices ranging from 15 cents to 31 cents.
All issues were resolved at prices between 95 cents and 100 cents.
Profit composition:
- Japan: $8,200
- EU: $6,900
- South Korea: $11,400
- Australia: $7,100
- UAE: $5,800
- Singapore: $4,400
Total: +$43,800.
Original text: My OpenClaw woke me up at 3:47 AM with a single message:
"Detected 6 markets that will settle in the next 90 minutes, while the US is still asleep, needing approval for a deployment of $12,000."
I typed "yes" and then fell back asleep. When I woke up, I found an extra $43,800, having run a bot looking for timezone arbitrage opportunities for 9 days.
What happened at 3:47 AM:
The bot detected 6 markets settling between 4 AM and 6 AM, distributed across different time zones.
- Total edge value detected: Potential value of $43,000
- Window period: 90 minutes in advance
Required funds: $12,000
My phone vibrated
I opened Telegram half-awake
Saw "Approve or miss"
Typed "yes"
I closed my eyes
7:30 AM - Woken up by a notification:
During the Asian/European early trading session, all six markets had settled.
American traders woke up to find the markets had closed.
I built a position at prices ranging from 15 cents to 31 cents.
All issues were resolved at prices between 95 cents and 100 cents.
Profit composition:
- Japan: $8,200
- EU: $6,900
- South Korea: $11,400
- Australia: $7,100
- UAE: $5,800
- Singapore: $4,400
Total: +$43,800.
Musk is set to launch a WeChat version + bank version of the X platform!
Recently, an American blogger shared a physical debit card issued by the X platform, please see the video below. According to the video, the user's X name and ID will be engraved on the card. Card transactions will have a 3% cashback, and additionally, the X debit card can achieve a 6% annualized deposit. With so many features, the X platform has already surpassed WeChat!
Previously, Musk stated that the X Money feature is expected to launch in some areas next month and then expand to more regions.
Recently, an American blogger shared a physical debit card issued by the X platform, please see the video below. According to the video, the user's X name and ID will be engraved on the card. Card transactions will have a 3% cashback, and additionally, the X debit card can achieve a 6% annualized deposit. With so many features, the X platform has already surpassed WeChat!
Previously, Musk stated that the X Money feature is expected to launch in some areas next month and then expand to more regions.
I see my friends leaving messages for me: What should we do if BTC tries to break the key resistance level of 74,000 for the third time and successfully stabilizes above 74,000?
The tweet I quoted below, "Three Price Trends Before the BTC Medium-term Downtrend Changes" has listed the possibility of this trend, with a 50% probability:
Trend 3: Around March 25, if the price successfully tests the peak of 74,000 for the third time and stabilizes above 74,000 for two consecutive days, BTC will head towards the second target price of 78,800, and form a top near 78,800, then the medium-term downtrend will begin.
This trend could oscillate for over two months, with a probability of 50%. The rebound is expected to end in early April, and the rebound peak of the weekly 4th wave is expected to stop near 78,800.
If the BTC price really stabilizes above 74,000 afterwards, in terms of short-term trading, we can follow the trend and go long, with a take-profit target price near 78,800, and then prepare to enter into a medium-term downtrend short position. The trading strategy is simple and clear, just adapt to changes and follow the trend.
For more details, please see the tweet below
👇
The tweet I quoted below, "Three Price Trends Before the BTC Medium-term Downtrend Changes" has listed the possibility of this trend, with a 50% probability:
Trend 3: Around March 25, if the price successfully tests the peak of 74,000 for the third time and stabilizes above 74,000 for two consecutive days, BTC will head towards the second target price of 78,800, and form a top near 78,800, then the medium-term downtrend will begin.
This trend could oscillate for over two months, with a probability of 50%. The rebound is expected to end in early April, and the rebound peak of the weekly 4th wave is expected to stop near 78,800.
If the BTC price really stabilizes above 74,000 afterwards, in terms of short-term trading, we can follow the trend and go long, with a take-profit target price near 78,800, and then prepare to enter into a medium-term downtrend short position. The trading strategy is simple and clear, just adapt to changes and follow the trend.
For more details, please see the tweet below
👇
Three price trends before the BTC medium-term downtrend changes:
Trend 1: Before March 17, the price attempts to reach 74,000 twice and fails. After March 17, BTC starts the medium-term downtrend; this trend is relatively simple, with a probability of 40%;
Trend 2: Around March 25, the price attempts to reach 74,000 for the third time and fails again. After three unsuccessful breakthroughs, there will surely be a significant drop, and BTC will begin the medium-term downtrend at the end of March; the oscillation period is close to two months, and this trend aligns with expectations and common sense, with a probability of 60%;
Trend 3: Around March 25, if the price successfully reaches 74,000 for the third time and stays above 74,000 for two consecutive days, BTC will aim for the second target price of 78,800 and build a top near 78,800 before the medium-term downtrend begins. This trend has an oscillation time of more than two months, with a probability of 50%, and the rebound is expected to end in early April, with the rebound peak of the weekly level's fourth wave stopping near 78,800.
This weekly level's fourth wave rebound, because the price fell to 60,000 on February 6, has seen significant buying power in the market, with high trading volume and bullish momentum. The oscillation period has been longer than expected, and the oscillation trend is relatively complex, so be prepared for a long-term bullish battle.
I still firmly believe: this is just a dead cat bounce of the fourth wave at the weekly level, and the subsequent fifth wave downtrend will likely see BTC prices fall to 40,000-45,000, with the real bottom of the bear market expected to appear around October.
The bear market continues, the deep bear has not yet arrived, keep going and persevere!
Trend 1: Before March 17, the price attempts to reach 74,000 twice and fails. After March 17, BTC starts the medium-term downtrend; this trend is relatively simple, with a probability of 40%;
Trend 2: Around March 25, the price attempts to reach 74,000 for the third time and fails again. After three unsuccessful breakthroughs, there will surely be a significant drop, and BTC will begin the medium-term downtrend at the end of March; the oscillation period is close to two months, and this trend aligns with expectations and common sense, with a probability of 60%;
Trend 3: Around March 25, if the price successfully reaches 74,000 for the third time and stays above 74,000 for two consecutive days, BTC will aim for the second target price of 78,800 and build a top near 78,800 before the medium-term downtrend begins. This trend has an oscillation time of more than two months, with a probability of 50%, and the rebound is expected to end in early April, with the rebound peak of the weekly level's fourth wave stopping near 78,800.
This weekly level's fourth wave rebound, because the price fell to 60,000 on February 6, has seen significant buying power in the market, with high trading volume and bullish momentum. The oscillation period has been longer than expected, and the oscillation trend is relatively complex, so be prepared for a long-term bullish battle.
I still firmly believe: this is just a dead cat bounce of the fourth wave at the weekly level, and the subsequent fifth wave downtrend will likely see BTC prices fall to 40,000-45,000, with the real bottom of the bear market expected to appear around October.
The bear market continues, the deep bear has not yet arrived, keep going and persevere!
Which of the three trends listed below will BTC choose?
Currently, the BTC price is attempting for the second time to break through the Fibonacci 0.618 level at 74,000, but yesterday the price rebounded to 73,800 and then stalled. The bearish momentum on the four-hour chart is quite strong, and the breakthrough has failed! The price is likely to continue to decline and fluctuate, with a target price in the range of 63,500 to 65,500. I am not sure which specific price point it will ultimately drop to.
What we are concerned about is whether there will be a third attempt to rebound below 74,000, challenging whether it can successfully break through? Personally, I believe that from the perspective of ETF institutional fund flows, trading volume, and the strength changes in long and short positions, if the BTC price attempts to challenge the 74,000 level again, it is highly likely to end in failure once more. A third failed breakthrough would mark the beginning of a medium-term downward trend. Let's wait and see!
Currently, the BTC price is attempting for the second time to break through the Fibonacci 0.618 level at 74,000, but yesterday the price rebounded to 73,800 and then stalled. The bearish momentum on the four-hour chart is quite strong, and the breakthrough has failed! The price is likely to continue to decline and fluctuate, with a target price in the range of 63,500 to 65,500. I am not sure which specific price point it will ultimately drop to.
What we are concerned about is whether there will be a third attempt to rebound below 74,000, challenging whether it can successfully break through? Personally, I believe that from the perspective of ETF institutional fund flows, trading volume, and the strength changes in long and short positions, if the BTC price attempts to challenge the 74,000 level again, it is highly likely to end in failure once more. A third failed breakthrough would mark the beginning of a medium-term downward trend. Let's wait and see!
Three price trends before the BTC medium-term downtrend changes:
Trend 1: Before March 17, the price attempts to reach 74,000 twice and fails. After March 17, BTC starts the medium-term downtrend; this trend is relatively simple, with a probability of 40%;
Trend 2: Around March 25, the price attempts to reach 74,000 for the third time and fails again. After three unsuccessful breakthroughs, there will surely be a significant drop, and BTC will begin the medium-term downtrend at the end of March; the oscillation period is close to two months, and this trend aligns with expectations and common sense, with a probability of 60%;
Trend 3: Around March 25, if the price successfully reaches 74,000 for the third time and stays above 74,000 for two consecutive days, BTC will aim for the second target price of 78,800 and build a top near 78,800 before the medium-term downtrend begins. This trend has an oscillation time of more than two months, with a probability of 50%, and the rebound is expected to end in early April, with the rebound peak of the weekly level's fourth wave stopping near 78,800.
This weekly level's fourth wave rebound, because the price fell to 60,000 on February 6, has seen significant buying power in the market, with high trading volume and bullish momentum. The oscillation period has been longer than expected, and the oscillation trend is relatively complex, so be prepared for a long-term bullish battle.
I still firmly believe: this is just a dead cat bounce of the fourth wave at the weekly level, and the subsequent fifth wave downtrend will likely see BTC prices fall to 40,000-45,000, with the real bottom of the bear market expected to appear around October.
The bear market continues, the deep bear has not yet arrived, keep going and persevere!
Trend 1: Before March 17, the price attempts to reach 74,000 twice and fails. After March 17, BTC starts the medium-term downtrend; this trend is relatively simple, with a probability of 40%;
Trend 2: Around March 25, the price attempts to reach 74,000 for the third time and fails again. After three unsuccessful breakthroughs, there will surely be a significant drop, and BTC will begin the medium-term downtrend at the end of March; the oscillation period is close to two months, and this trend aligns with expectations and common sense, with a probability of 60%;
Trend 3: Around March 25, if the price successfully reaches 74,000 for the third time and stays above 74,000 for two consecutive days, BTC will aim for the second target price of 78,800 and build a top near 78,800 before the medium-term downtrend begins. This trend has an oscillation time of more than two months, with a probability of 50%, and the rebound is expected to end in early April, with the rebound peak of the weekly level's fourth wave stopping near 78,800.
This weekly level's fourth wave rebound, because the price fell to 60,000 on February 6, has seen significant buying power in the market, with high trading volume and bullish momentum. The oscillation period has been longer than expected, and the oscillation trend is relatively complex, so be prepared for a long-term bullish battle.
I still firmly believe: this is just a dead cat bounce of the fourth wave at the weekly level, and the subsequent fifth wave downtrend will likely see BTC prices fall to 40,000-45,000, with the real bottom of the bear market expected to appear around October.
The bear market continues, the deep bear has not yet arrived, keep going and persevere!
Three price trends before the BTC medium-term downtrend changes:
Trend 1: Before March 17, the price attempts to reach 74,000 twice and fails. After March 17, BTC starts the medium-term downtrend; this trend is relatively simple, with a probability of 40%;
Trend 2: Around March 25, the price attempts to reach 74,000 for the third time and fails again. After three unsuccessful breakthroughs, there will surely be a significant drop, and BTC will begin the medium-term downtrend at the end of March; the oscillation period is close to two months, and this trend aligns with expectations and common sense, with a probability of 60%;
Trend 3: Around March 25, if the price successfully reaches 74,000 for the third time and stays above 74,000 for two consecutive days, BTC will aim for the second target price of 78,800 and build a top near 78,800 before the medium-term downtrend begins. This trend has an oscillation time of more than two months, with a probability of 50%, and the rebound is expected to end in early April, with the rebound peak of the weekly level's fourth wave stopping near 78,800.
This weekly level's fourth wave rebound, because the price fell to 60,000 on February 6, has seen significant buying power in the market, with high trading volume and bullish momentum. The oscillation period has been longer than expected, and the oscillation trend is relatively complex, so be prepared for a long-term bullish battle.
I still firmly believe: this is just a dead cat bounce of the fourth wave at the weekly level, and the subsequent fifth wave downtrend will likely see BTC prices fall to 40,000-45,000, with the real bottom of the bear market expected to appear around October.
The bear market continues, the deep bear has not yet arrived, keep going and persevere!
Trend 1: Before March 17, the price attempts to reach 74,000 twice and fails. After March 17, BTC starts the medium-term downtrend; this trend is relatively simple, with a probability of 40%;
Trend 2: Around March 25, the price attempts to reach 74,000 for the third time and fails again. After three unsuccessful breakthroughs, there will surely be a significant drop, and BTC will begin the medium-term downtrend at the end of March; the oscillation period is close to two months, and this trend aligns with expectations and common sense, with a probability of 60%;
Trend 3: Around March 25, if the price successfully reaches 74,000 for the third time and stays above 74,000 for two consecutive days, BTC will aim for the second target price of 78,800 and build a top near 78,800 before the medium-term downtrend begins. This trend has an oscillation time of more than two months, with a probability of 50%, and the rebound is expected to end in early April, with the rebound peak of the weekly level's fourth wave stopping near 78,800.
This weekly level's fourth wave rebound, because the price fell to 60,000 on February 6, has seen significant buying power in the market, with high trading volume and bullish momentum. The oscillation period has been longer than expected, and the oscillation trend is relatively complex, so be prepared for a long-term bullish battle.
I still firmly believe: this is just a dead cat bounce of the fourth wave at the weekly level, and the subsequent fifth wave downtrend will likely see BTC prices fall to 40,000-45,000, with the real bottom of the bear market expected to appear around October.
The bear market continues, the deep bear has not yet arrived, keep going and persevere!
《A Good Opportunity for Grassroots Comeback? Let You See Through Bitcoin's Bull and Bear for the Next Year, Grasp Trend Opportunities to Make Big Money》
Currently, Bitcoin is in a bear market, which has become a consensus among the public and institutions. I had already predicted on November 14, 2025, that Bitcoin would enter a bear market, and I provided the target price for Bitcoin's decline and its probability. At that time, I estimated the probability of Bitcoin's price dropping to around 58,000 to be 65%. Currently, the lowest spot price is 60,000, which is 2,000 points away from the predicted low. Interested friends can check the screenshot of that tweet:
Now, I will again predict the target price for Bitcoin's major bottom in this round of the bear market:
Probability of 45,000: 75%; Probability of 40,000: 85%; Probability of 38,000: 80%.
Now, I will again predict the target price for Bitcoin's major bottom in this round of the bear market:
Probability of 45,000: 75%; Probability of 40,000: 85%; Probability of 38,000: 80%.
BTC continues to fluctuate widely; when will this fluctuation and trend change end?
1) Daily: The current highest point of the rebound is at the 0.618 position of the Fibonacci retracement in the first chart, around 74,000. The recent rebound high has decreased to below 72,000, with trading volume slightly shrinking. It is expected that there will be another wide fluctuation, and around the 17th, a possible third rebound high may occur below 72,000;
2) Order book: The amount of sell orders has started to appear in large amounts, but the quantity has not accumulated, nor have there been large sell orders, so the price is likely to continue fluctuating widely to build momentum;
3) Spot ETF institutions: Funds have net inflows for three consecutive weeks, amounting to 767 million USD, 568 million, and a net inflow of 417 million so far this week. Overall, the net inflow of funds each week is relatively small; therefore, the rebound height of the price is limited;
4) The price is still in the fourth wave rebound phase on a weekly chart, currently running for 34 days, with the highest rebound increase of 24%;
Summary:
1) Continue to observe whether the price rebound high gradually decreases. If the third rebound high still remains below 72,000, it is expected that around the 17th, a third high might rebound, and if trading volume continues to shrink and price fluctuations narrow, the daily trend change will get closer, and the trend change day might occur after March 17.
2) Based on the current trading volume, bullish momentum, and net inflow of funds in spot ETF institutions, I estimate that the fourth wave rebound high is fixed around 74,000. If the BTC price has not changed by around the 17th, the fluctuation period will be extended, and the longer the box fluctuation time, the sharper the subsequent decline.
1) Daily: The current highest point of the rebound is at the 0.618 position of the Fibonacci retracement in the first chart, around 74,000. The recent rebound high has decreased to below 72,000, with trading volume slightly shrinking. It is expected that there will be another wide fluctuation, and around the 17th, a possible third rebound high may occur below 72,000;
2) Order book: The amount of sell orders has started to appear in large amounts, but the quantity has not accumulated, nor have there been large sell orders, so the price is likely to continue fluctuating widely to build momentum;
3) Spot ETF institutions: Funds have net inflows for three consecutive weeks, amounting to 767 million USD, 568 million, and a net inflow of 417 million so far this week. Overall, the net inflow of funds each week is relatively small; therefore, the rebound height of the price is limited;
4) The price is still in the fourth wave rebound phase on a weekly chart, currently running for 34 days, with the highest rebound increase of 24%;
Summary:
1) Continue to observe whether the price rebound high gradually decreases. If the third rebound high still remains below 72,000, it is expected that around the 17th, a third high might rebound, and if trading volume continues to shrink and price fluctuations narrow, the daily trend change will get closer, and the trend change day might occur after March 17.
2) Based on the current trading volume, bullish momentum, and net inflow of funds in spot ETF institutions, I estimate that the fourth wave rebound high is fixed around 74,000. If the BTC price has not changed by around the 17th, the fluctuation period will be extended, and the longer the box fluctuation time, the sharper the subsequent decline.
BTC is in a wide range of fluctuations, don't be a frog boiled in warm water, be a swordsman who slays black bears! The strength of trading volume and the flow of funds determine the trend direction. Let's analyze today's data and the logic behind it:
1) Four-hour level: The bullish trading volume in the last two days has been mediocre, weaker than the previous rebound trading volume. From the bullish trading volume fluctuation curve in the first chart, the bullish trading volume shows signs of decline;
2) Order book funds: The amount of sell orders is relatively small, and the bearish force needs to be strengthened. Once a significant amount of sell orders appears, the short-term trend will be reversed;
3) Spot ETF institutions: Today's net inflow is $167 million, and ETF institutions are not aggressively buying BTC;
4) Daily level candlestick: Trading volume has decreased, the upward trend has weakened, but the MACD is still moving upward. The price is still within the dead cat bounce of the fourth wave on the weekly level, with a fluctuation period of 32 days;
Summary:
1) Bullish trading volume is declining, trading volume is decreasing, and the net inflow of funds from ETF institutions is relatively small. Thus, the rebound height is limited, currently rebounding to around the Fibonacci retracement of 0.236, which is about 71,000. The rebound has basically reached the target price, and it may fall again for adjustment, with the target price for the decline around 65,500;
2) BTC price is still in a wide range of fluctuations and accumulation stage. Once the bullish trading volume is exhausted, trading volume weakens, and the daily MACD forms a high position dead cross, the medium-term downtrend will likely commence;
3) International war factors and the TACO bird man's sporadic statements will only affect the short-term trend and fluctuations of BTC prices, without changing the inherent operating rules of BTC and the reality of the bear market. When the fluctuation accumulation reaches a critical point and triggers negative news, the fifth wave on the weekly level will arrive!
We must not be blinded by the short-term wide fluctuations. Don't be that frog boiled in warm water, but remain vigilant and sharp-eyed, preparing for the medium-term downtrend, seizing the opportunity to slash down the shadow of the black bear!
1) Four-hour level: The bullish trading volume in the last two days has been mediocre, weaker than the previous rebound trading volume. From the bullish trading volume fluctuation curve in the first chart, the bullish trading volume shows signs of decline;
2) Order book funds: The amount of sell orders is relatively small, and the bearish force needs to be strengthened. Once a significant amount of sell orders appears, the short-term trend will be reversed;
3) Spot ETF institutions: Today's net inflow is $167 million, and ETF institutions are not aggressively buying BTC;
4) Daily level candlestick: Trading volume has decreased, the upward trend has weakened, but the MACD is still moving upward. The price is still within the dead cat bounce of the fourth wave on the weekly level, with a fluctuation period of 32 days;
Summary:
1) Bullish trading volume is declining, trading volume is decreasing, and the net inflow of funds from ETF institutions is relatively small. Thus, the rebound height is limited, currently rebounding to around the Fibonacci retracement of 0.236, which is about 71,000. The rebound has basically reached the target price, and it may fall again for adjustment, with the target price for the decline around 65,500;
2) BTC price is still in a wide range of fluctuations and accumulation stage. Once the bullish trading volume is exhausted, trading volume weakens, and the daily MACD forms a high position dead cross, the medium-term downtrend will likely commence;
3) International war factors and the TACO bird man's sporadic statements will only affect the short-term trend and fluctuations of BTC prices, without changing the inherent operating rules of BTC and the reality of the bear market. When the fluctuation accumulation reaches a critical point and triggers negative news, the fifth wave on the weekly level will arrive!
We must not be blinded by the short-term wide fluctuations. Don't be that frog boiled in warm water, but remain vigilant and sharp-eyed, preparing for the medium-term downtrend, seizing the opportunity to slash down the shadow of the black bear!
A picture and an article contain my dedication and professionalism.
When you carefully read the article I painstakingly wrote on February 22 titled "A Good Opportunity for Grassroots Reversal? Let You See Through Bitcoin's Bull and Bear Market in the Coming Year, Seize Big Money Opportunities by Grasping Trends"👇,
I believe you will likely understand the price trends and market developments of Bitcoin in the coming year, and also be able to grasp some key mid-term trend opportunities, rather than short-term frequent trading opportunities.
When you carefully read the article I painstakingly wrote on February 22 titled "A Good Opportunity for Grassroots Reversal? Let You See Through Bitcoin's Bull and Bear Market in the Coming Year, Seize Big Money Opportunities by Grasping Trends"👇,
I believe you will likely understand the price trends and market developments of Bitcoin in the coming year, and also be able to grasp some key mid-term trend opportunities, rather than short-term frequent trading opportunities.
《A Good Opportunity for Grassroots Comeback? Let You See Through Bitcoin's Bull and Bear for the Next Year, Grasp Trend Opportunities to Make Big Money》
Currently, Bitcoin is in a bear market, which has become a consensus among the public and institutions. I had already predicted on November 14, 2025, that Bitcoin would enter a bear market, and I provided the target price for Bitcoin's decline and its probability. At that time, I estimated the probability of Bitcoin's price dropping to around 58,000 to be 65%. Currently, the lowest spot price is 60,000, which is 2,000 points away from the predicted low. Interested friends can check the screenshot of that tweet:
Now, I will again predict the target price for Bitcoin's major bottom in this round of the bear market:
Probability of 45,000: 75%; Probability of 40,000: 85%; Probability of 38,000: 80%.
Now, I will again predict the target price for Bitcoin's major bottom in this round of the bear market:
Probability of 45,000: 75%; Probability of 40,000: 85%; Probability of 38,000: 80%.
Today is Monday, and the price trend of BTC will be very crucial!
The Asian stock markets are expected to open with a significant drop, especially in Japan and South Korea. BTC will either weakly rebound, oscillating around 70,000 before dropping again, as seen in Chart 1; or it will consolidate for some time before choosing the weakest and worst trend, directly collapsing downwards, as seen in Chart 2.
Regardless of which trend BTC chooses, it ultimately cannot escape the fate of the end of the weekly level 4 wave rebound, which will then initiate the downtrend of the level 5 wave, as shown in Chart 3.
What we need to do next is to choose a relatively high point for BTC price rebound, and short BTC/ETH in batches and time intervals to capture the profits from this medium-term downtrend.
The Asian stock markets are expected to open with a significant drop, especially in Japan and South Korea. BTC will either weakly rebound, oscillating around 70,000 before dropping again, as seen in Chart 1; or it will consolidate for some time before choosing the weakest and worst trend, directly collapsing downwards, as seen in Chart 2.
Regardless of which trend BTC chooses, it ultimately cannot escape the fate of the end of the weekly level 4 wave rebound, which will then initiate the downtrend of the level 5 wave, as shown in Chart 3.
What we need to do next is to choose a relatively high point for BTC price rebound, and short BTC/ETH in batches and time intervals to capture the profits from this medium-term downtrend.
Blast! Since BTC has made a false breakout at 74,000, it will truly drop below 60,000 in the future!
The market makers of BTC are really skilled at manipulating public psychology and market sentiment; BTC just played a false breakout at 740,000! The market is also quite FOMO, and many people are shouting that the bull is back quickly. At that time, I also reminded my partners that this upward rebound is merely the 4th wave dead cat bounce on the weekly level, and once the rebound ends, it will initiate a medium-term downward trend.
However, I also overestimated the height of BTC's rebound for a time. I previously predicted that after BTC breaks upward through the triangular fluctuation structure, the rebound target prices would be 74,500, 78,800. As a result, the price rebounded to 74,000 and then halted the rebound, plummeting to around 68,000 in sideways fluctuations.
When the public realizes that this is a false breakout, BTC just happens to welcome a slight fluctuation buildup over the weekend without a straight drop. I immediately wrote an analysis article titled "Beware of BTC starting a medium-term one-sided downward trend to hunt down the bulls next week!" The logic includes five points; please refer to the quoted tweet below for details 👇.
Now the price of BTC is in a precarious situation, on the verge of collapse. Many hope that BTC can rebound to 69,000-71,500-72,000-74,000 on Monday, and then start shorting. However, the real market may not provide the opportunity for this high rebound. The most pessimistic scenario is that BTC slowly declines over the weekend, and when the Asian stock markets or U.S. stock markets open on Monday, it will drop sharply, directly breaking public's rebound expectations again!
Since the false breakout of BTC upward has been established, it will truly break below key support levels such as 62,800, 60,000, etc., initiating a new wave of medium-term one-sided downward trend. Breaking six towards four is not an unattainable fantasy, but a bear market weekly level 5 wave downward trend that is very likely to actually happen.
The market makers of BTC are really skilled at manipulating public psychology and market sentiment; BTC just played a false breakout at 740,000! The market is also quite FOMO, and many people are shouting that the bull is back quickly. At that time, I also reminded my partners that this upward rebound is merely the 4th wave dead cat bounce on the weekly level, and once the rebound ends, it will initiate a medium-term downward trend.
However, I also overestimated the height of BTC's rebound for a time. I previously predicted that after BTC breaks upward through the triangular fluctuation structure, the rebound target prices would be 74,500, 78,800. As a result, the price rebounded to 74,000 and then halted the rebound, plummeting to around 68,000 in sideways fluctuations.
When the public realizes that this is a false breakout, BTC just happens to welcome a slight fluctuation buildup over the weekend without a straight drop. I immediately wrote an analysis article titled "Beware of BTC starting a medium-term one-sided downward trend to hunt down the bulls next week!" The logic includes five points; please refer to the quoted tweet below for details 👇.
Now the price of BTC is in a precarious situation, on the verge of collapse. Many hope that BTC can rebound to 69,000-71,500-72,000-74,000 on Monday, and then start shorting. However, the real market may not provide the opportunity for this high rebound. The most pessimistic scenario is that BTC slowly declines over the weekend, and when the Asian stock markets or U.S. stock markets open on Monday, it will drop sharply, directly breaking public's rebound expectations again!
Since the false breakout of BTC upward has been established, it will truly break below key support levels such as 62,800, 60,000, etc., initiating a new wave of medium-term one-sided downward trend. Breaking six towards four is not an unattainable fantasy, but a bear market weekly level 5 wave downward trend that is very likely to actually happen.
Blast! Since BTC has made a false breakout at 74,000, it will truly drop below 60,000 in the future!
The market makers of BTC are really skilled at manipulating public psychology and market sentiment; BTC just played a false breakout at 740,000! The market is also quite FOMO, and many people are shouting that the bull is back quickly. At that time, I also reminded my partners that this upward rebound is merely the 4th wave dead cat bounce on the weekly level, and once the rebound ends, it will initiate a medium-term downward trend.
However, I also overestimated the height of BTC's rebound for a time. I previously predicted that after BTC breaks upward through the triangular fluctuation structure, the rebound target prices would be 74,500, 78,800. As a result, the price rebounded to 74,000 and then halted the rebound, plummeting to around 68,000 in sideways fluctuations.
When the public realizes that this is a false breakout, BTC just happens to welcome a slight fluctuation buildup over the weekend without a straight drop. I immediately wrote an analysis article titled "Beware of BTC starting a medium-term one-sided downward trend to hunt down the bulls next week!" The logic includes five points; please refer to the quoted tweet below for details 👇.
Now the price of BTC is in a precarious situation, on the verge of collapse. Many hope that BTC can rebound to 69,000-71,500-72,000-74,000 on Monday, and then start shorting. However, the real market may not provide the opportunity for this high rebound. The most pessimistic scenario is that BTC slowly declines over the weekend, and when the Asian stock markets or U.S. stock markets open on Monday, it will drop sharply, directly breaking public's rebound expectations again!
Since the false breakout of BTC upward has been established, it will truly break below key support levels such as 62,800, 60,000, etc., initiating a new wave of medium-term one-sided downward trend. Breaking six towards four is not an unattainable fantasy, but a bear market weekly level 5 wave downward trend that is very likely to actually happen.
The market makers of BTC are really skilled at manipulating public psychology and market sentiment; BTC just played a false breakout at 740,000! The market is also quite FOMO, and many people are shouting that the bull is back quickly. At that time, I also reminded my partners that this upward rebound is merely the 4th wave dead cat bounce on the weekly level, and once the rebound ends, it will initiate a medium-term downward trend.
However, I also overestimated the height of BTC's rebound for a time. I previously predicted that after BTC breaks upward through the triangular fluctuation structure, the rebound target prices would be 74,500, 78,800. As a result, the price rebounded to 74,000 and then halted the rebound, plummeting to around 68,000 in sideways fluctuations.
When the public realizes that this is a false breakout, BTC just happens to welcome a slight fluctuation buildup over the weekend without a straight drop. I immediately wrote an analysis article titled "Beware of BTC starting a medium-term one-sided downward trend to hunt down the bulls next week!" The logic includes five points; please refer to the quoted tweet below for details 👇.
Now the price of BTC is in a precarious situation, on the verge of collapse. Many hope that BTC can rebound to 69,000-71,500-72,000-74,000 on Monday, and then start shorting. However, the real market may not provide the opportunity for this high rebound. The most pessimistic scenario is that BTC slowly declines over the weekend, and when the Asian stock markets or U.S. stock markets open on Monday, it will drop sharply, directly breaking public's rebound expectations again!
Since the false breakout of BTC upward has been established, it will truly break below key support levels such as 62,800, 60,000, etc., initiating a new wave of medium-term one-sided downward trend. Breaking six towards four is not an unattainable fantasy, but a bear market weekly level 5 wave downward trend that is very likely to actually happen.
⚠️ Beware of BTC starting a unilateral downtrend next week that hunts for long positions! The logic behind this is as follows:
1) The first rebound target price for BTC has basically been achieved
The target prices I previously predicted for BTC's 4th wave rebound are 74,500 and 78,800. The highest rebound price so far is 74,000, which is close to the expected first rebound target price of 74,500; the second target price of 78,800 is likely difficult to achieve.
2) The weekly level 4th wave oscillation time is basically sufficient
In my previous predictions, the oscillation time for the 4th wave was about one month, and I repeatedly emphasized the need to pay attention around March 6, when BTC might experience a trend reversal. Now, after an upward trend reversal, there has been a significant drop; this upward trend reversal may be a false breakout that entices long positions. If the price oscillates for a few more days, it will only make the subsequent drop even more severe.
3) Four-hour bearish volume increases and bullish volume decreases
After the price rebounded to 74,000, institutions, whales, and major exchanges began selling BTC, with four-hour bearish volume rapidly increasing and bullish volume weakening; this bearish volume after the upward trend reversal should not be underestimated, and it significantly impacts market confidence and long positions;
4) Geopolitical wars lead to a sharp rise in oil prices and increased global inflation
The three Middle Eastern countries are in a stalemate, and crude oil prices have surged to around $88, rising 40% in March; global inflation is high, and the U.S. stock market may continue to decline, which will inevitably lead to BTC following the U.S. stock market in a sustained drop.
5) The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut to zero in March is a bearish signal
With rising oil prices and increasing global inflation pressure, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts from March to May are essentially zero. The market's expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have been dashed, and market liquidity will become tighter, which is a potential bearish signal for BTC in March.
If the BTC price can rebound below 74,000, and bullish volume is exhausted without further upward breakthroughs, then the final rebound target price will be 74,000, and the medium-term downtrend will begin, with a fall to 60,000 becoming a reality, targeting a price range of 40,000 to 45,000.
⚠️
Friends, pay attention to the strength and space of BTC's subsequent rebound, be aware of the risk of BTC starting a unilateral downtrend next week, and it is recommended to primarily short. Risks have been reminded, strategies provided, not investment advice, for reference only, and you are responsible for your own profits and losses.
1) The first rebound target price for BTC has basically been achieved
The target prices I previously predicted for BTC's 4th wave rebound are 74,500 and 78,800. The highest rebound price so far is 74,000, which is close to the expected first rebound target price of 74,500; the second target price of 78,800 is likely difficult to achieve.
2) The weekly level 4th wave oscillation time is basically sufficient
In my previous predictions, the oscillation time for the 4th wave was about one month, and I repeatedly emphasized the need to pay attention around March 6, when BTC might experience a trend reversal. Now, after an upward trend reversal, there has been a significant drop; this upward trend reversal may be a false breakout that entices long positions. If the price oscillates for a few more days, it will only make the subsequent drop even more severe.
3) Four-hour bearish volume increases and bullish volume decreases
After the price rebounded to 74,000, institutions, whales, and major exchanges began selling BTC, with four-hour bearish volume rapidly increasing and bullish volume weakening; this bearish volume after the upward trend reversal should not be underestimated, and it significantly impacts market confidence and long positions;
4) Geopolitical wars lead to a sharp rise in oil prices and increased global inflation
The three Middle Eastern countries are in a stalemate, and crude oil prices have surged to around $88, rising 40% in March; global inflation is high, and the U.S. stock market may continue to decline, which will inevitably lead to BTC following the U.S. stock market in a sustained drop.
5) The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut to zero in March is a bearish signal
With rising oil prices and increasing global inflation pressure, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts from March to May are essentially zero. The market's expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have been dashed, and market liquidity will become tighter, which is a potential bearish signal for BTC in March.
If the BTC price can rebound below 74,000, and bullish volume is exhausted without further upward breakthroughs, then the final rebound target price will be 74,000, and the medium-term downtrend will begin, with a fall to 60,000 becoming a reality, targeting a price range of 40,000 to 45,000.
⚠️
Friends, pay attention to the strength and space of BTC's subsequent rebound, be aware of the risk of BTC starting a unilateral downtrend next week, and it is recommended to primarily short. Risks have been reminded, strategies provided, not investment advice, for reference only, and you are responsible for your own profits and losses.
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