Which of the three trends listed below will BTC | 小龙先生 on Binance Square

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Which of the three trends listed below will BTC choose?
Currently, the BTC price is attempting for the second time to break through the Fibonacci 0.618 level at 74,000, but yesterday the price rebounded to 73,800 and then stalled. The bearish momentum on the four-hour chart is quite strong, and the breakthrough has failed! The price is likely to continue to decline and fluctuate, with a target price in the range of 63,500 to 65,500. I am not sure which specific price point it will ultimately drop to.

What we are concerned about is whether there will be a third attempt to rebound below 74,000, challenging whether it can successfully break through? Personally, I believe that from the perspective of ETF institutional fund flows, trading volume, and the strength changes in long and short positions, if the BTC price attempts to challenge the 74,000 level again, it is highly likely to end in failure once more. A third failed breakthrough would mark the beginning of a medium-term downward trend. Let's wait and see!

小龙先生

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Three price trends before the BTC medium-term downtrend changes:
Trend 1: Before March 17, the price attempts to reach 74,000 twice and fails. After March 17, BTC starts the medium-term downtrend; this trend is relatively simple, with a probability of 40%;

Trend 2: Around March 25, the price attempts to reach 74,000 for the third time and fails again. After three unsuccessful breakthroughs, there will surely be a significant drop, and BTC will begin the medium-term downtrend at the end of March; the oscillation period is close to two months, and this trend aligns with expectations and common sense, with a probability of 60%;

Trend 3: Around March 25, if the price successfully reaches 74,000 for the third time and stays above 74,000 for two consecutive days, BTC will aim for the second target price of 78,800 and build a top near 78,800 before the medium-term downtrend begins. This trend has an oscillation time of more than two months, with a probability of 50%, and the rebound is expected to end in early April, with the rebound peak of the weekly level's fourth wave stopping near 78,800.

This weekly level's fourth wave rebound, because the price fell to 60,000 on February 6, has seen significant buying power in the market, with high trading volume and bullish momentum. The oscillation period has been longer than expected, and the oscillation trend is relatively complex, so be prepared for a long-term bullish battle.

I still firmly believe: this is just a dead cat bounce of the fourth wave at the weekly level, and the subsequent fifth wave downtrend will likely see BTC prices fall to 40,000-45,000, with the real bottom of the bear market expected to appear around October.

The bear market continues, the deep bear has not yet arrived, keep going and persevere!

Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No advice. Binance AI may be used without guarantee. See T&Cs.