Let's talk about my prediction on whether BTC can break

Let's talk about my prediction on whether BTC can break through the key resistance level of 74,500: the two key time nodes for the medium-term trend direction reversal are around March 19 and April 6.First, let's look at the volume and on-chain data:
1) From the four-hour level of long and short volume and candlesticks, the short volume in these two days is obviously stronger than the long volume. The recent consecutive three four-hour candlesticks have shown long upper shadows. However, MicroStrategy has been buying Bitcoin continuously over the weekend, and a Japanese listed company also bought $245 million worth of Bitcoin over the weekend. The continuous buying by these institutions has prevented the price from falling.
MicroStrategy increased its holdings of 22,337 Bitcoins last week:
According to official news, MicroStrategy spent about $1.57 billion to acquire 22,337 BTC last week, with an average price of about $70,194. Latest data: MicroStrategy holds a total of 761,068 BTC, with a total investment of about $57.61 billion, and an average price of about $75,696.
2) On the order book, the amount of sell orders has been accumulating significantly larger amounts in recent days, greatly exceeding the amount of buy orders.
Although MicroStrategy and the Japanese listed company have been continuously buying Bitcoin over the weekend, the on-chain data and the four-hour candlesticks and volume tell me that this time Bitcoin is highly unlikely to break above 74,500, but is more likely to adjust down to around 65,500, and then choose to rebound upwards again, challenging the resistance price of 74,500.
In the third image, I have illustrated two possible future trajectories for Bitcoin, which is actually a simplified version of the three trajectories I had previously outlined, removing the first trajectory while retaining the second and third.
Regardless of how Bitcoin chooses between the two trajectories in the third image, the only difference is whether the height of the fourth wave rebound at the weekly level is 74,500 or 78,800. Ultimately, this will not change the direction of the medium-term downtrend. After the fourth wave rebound ends, BTC will face a terrifying crash in the fifth wave downtrend, with a target price of 40,000-45,000. Next, we only need to focus on the two key time nodes for the medium-term trend direction reversal: around March 19 and April 6.

.css-1iqe90x{box-sizing:border-box;margin:0;min-width:0;color:#EAECEF;}Let's talk about my prediction on whether BTC can break through the key resistance level of 74,500: the two key time nodes for the medium-term trend direction reversal are around March 19 and April 6.

Let's talk about my prediction on whether BTC can break through the key resistance level of 74,500: the two key time nodes for the medium-term trend direction reversal are around March 19 and April 6.