Currently, Bitcoin is in a bear market, which has become a consensus among the public and institutions. I had already predicted on November 14, 2025, that Bitcoin would enter a bear market, and I provided the target price for Bitcoin's decline and its probability. At that time, I estimated the probability of Bitcoin's price dropping to around 58,000 to be 65%. Currently, the lowest spot price is 60,000, which is 2,000 points away from the predicted low. Interested friends can check the screenshot of that tweet:

Now, I will again predict the target price for Bitcoin's major bottom in this round of the bear market:
Probability of 45,000: 75%; Probability of 40,000: 85%; Probability of 38,000: 80%.