I see my friends leaving messages for me: What should we do | 小龙先生 on Binance Square

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I see my friends leaving messages for me: What should we do if BTC tries to break the key resistance level of 74,000 for the third time and successfully stabilizes above 74,000?

The tweet I quoted below, "Three Price Trends Before the BTC Medium-term Downtrend Changes" has listed the possibility of this trend, with a 50% probability:

Trend 3: Around March 25, if the price successfully tests the peak of 74,000 for the third time and stabilizes above 74,000 for two consecutive days, BTC will head towards the second target price of 78,800, and form a top near 78,800, then the medium-term downtrend will begin.

This trend could oscillate for over two months, with a probability of 50%. The rebound is expected to end in early April, and the rebound peak of the weekly 4th wave is expected to stop near 78,800.

If the BTC price really stabilizes above 74,000 afterwards, in terms of short-term trading, we can follow the trend and go long, with a take-profit target price near 78,800, and then prepare to enter into a medium-term downtrend short position. The trading strategy is simple and clear, just adapt to changes and follow the trend.

For more details, please see the tweet below
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小龙先生

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Three price trends before the BTC medium-term downtrend changes:
Trend 1: Before March 17, the price attempts to reach 74,000 twice and fails. After March 17, BTC starts the medium-term downtrend; this trend is relatively simple, with a probability of 40%;

Trend 2: Around March 25, the price attempts to reach 74,000 for the third time and fails again. After three unsuccessful breakthroughs, there will surely be a significant drop, and BTC will begin the medium-term downtrend at the end of March; the oscillation period is close to two months, and this trend aligns with expectations and common sense, with a probability of 60%;

Trend 3: Around March 25, if the price successfully reaches 74,000 for the third time and stays above 74,000 for two consecutive days, BTC will aim for the second target price of 78,800 and build a top near 78,800 before the medium-term downtrend begins. This trend has an oscillation time of more than two months, with a probability of 50%, and the rebound is expected to end in early April, with the rebound peak of the weekly level's fourth wave stopping near 78,800.

This weekly level's fourth wave rebound, because the price fell to 60,000 on February 6, has seen significant buying power in the market, with high trading volume and bullish momentum. The oscillation period has been longer than expected, and the oscillation trend is relatively complex, so be prepared for a long-term bullish battle.

I still firmly believe: this is just a dead cat bounce of the fourth wave at the weekly level, and the subsequent fifth wave downtrend will likely see BTC prices fall to 40,000-45,000, with the real bottom of the bear market expected to appear around October.

The bear market continues, the deep bear has not yet arrived, keep going and persevere!

Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No advice. Binance AI may be used without guarantee. See T&Cs.