BTC is in a wide range of fluctuations, don't be a frog boiled in warm water, be a swordsman who slays black bears! The strength of trading volume and the flow of funds determine the trend direction. Let's analyze today's data and the logic behind it:

1) Four-hour level: The bullish trading volume in the last two days has been mediocre, weaker than the previous rebound trading volume. From the bullish trading volume fluctuation curve in the first chart, the bullish trading volume shows signs of decline;

2) Order book funds: The amount of sell orders is relatively small, and the bearish force needs to be strengthened. Once a significant amount of sell orders appears, the short-term trend will be reversed;

3) Spot ETF institutions: Today's net inflow is $167 million, and ETF institutions are not aggressively buying BTC;

4) Daily level candlestick: Trading volume has decreased, the upward trend has weakened, but the MACD is still moving upward. The price is still within the dead cat bounce of the fourth wave on the weekly level, with a fluctuation period of 32 days;

Summary:

1) Bullish trading volume is declining, trading volume is decreasing, and the net inflow of funds from ETF institutions is relatively small. Thus, the rebound height is limited, currently rebounding to around the Fibonacci retracement of 0.236, which is about 71,000. The rebound has basically reached the target price, and it may fall again for adjustment, with the target price for the decline around 65,500;

2) BTC price is still in a wide range of fluctuations and accumulation stage. Once the bullish trading volume is exhausted, trading volume weakens, and the daily MACD forms a high position dead cross, the medium-term downtrend will likely commence;

3) International war factors and the TACO bird man's sporadic statements will only affect the short-term trend and fluctuations of BTC prices, without changing the inherent operating rules of BTC and the reality of the bear market. When the fluctuation accumulation reaches a critical point and triggers negative news, the fifth wave on the weekly level will arrive!

We must not be blinded by the short-term wide fluctuations. Don't be that frog boiled in warm water, but remain vigilant and sharp-eyed, preparing for the medium-term downtrend, seizing the opportunity to slash down the shadow of the black bear!