$BTC Bitcoin 24 On-Chain Cycle Indicators (III)
BTC: <10y/<7y/<5y LTH-Realized-Price
BTC: <10 years/<7 years/<5 years realized price
BTC long-term holders realized price cross-analysis model.
By observing the average holding costs across different holding periods,
we can clearly determine the current market cycle position.
Core Data Interpretation
Current BTC Price: approx. $77,979
Network Average Cost (0 to 10 years): $32,586
Mid-term HODLer Cost (6 months to 5 years): $53,195
Long-term HODLer Cost (6 months to 7 years): $41,743
Ultra-long-term HODLer Cost (6 months to 10 years): $29,972
1. Market is in a high-risk zone
The current coin price far exceeds all holding cost lines.
This means that the vast majority of on-chain chips are currently in a state of extreme profitability.
High unrealized profits indicate that potential selling pressure is rapidly building up.
At this stage, the market may face a washout at any time,
so it's crucial to remain rational amid the frenzy and prioritize risk management.
2. True Bear Market Bottom Characteristics
This model reveals a historical iron law:
In past major bear markets, before the true macro bottom appears,
there must be a thorough washout characterized by a series of death crosses.
The benchmark line representing the network average cost
must successively break through mid-term, long-term, and finally pierce the ultra-long-term holder's cost line.
Only when the market's average cost drops below the bottom line of the most steadfast holders,
with chips thoroughly exchanged, can the bear market bottom truly be established.
The current indicator status shows that
the moving average representing the network cost has not only failed to break any long-term cost lines but is actually at a high level. This indicates that we are currently in the profit-taking phase of the cycle.
In the face of an overall extremely profitable market, avoid blindly chasing highs.
For investors holding low-cost chips,
planning reasonable staggered profit-taking or strictly adjusting stop-loss baselines
is the most prudent response in this stage.
#链上指标 #welinkBTC $BNB
BTC: <10y/<7y/<5y LTH-Realized-Price
BTC: <10 years/<7 years/<5 years realized price
BTC long-term holders realized price cross-analysis model.
By observing the average holding costs across different holding periods,
we can clearly determine the current market cycle position.
Core Data Interpretation
Current BTC Price: approx. $77,979
Network Average Cost (0 to 10 years): $32,586
Mid-term HODLer Cost (6 months to 5 years): $53,195
Long-term HODLer Cost (6 months to 7 years): $41,743
Ultra-long-term HODLer Cost (6 months to 10 years): $29,972
1. Market is in a high-risk zone
The current coin price far exceeds all holding cost lines.
This means that the vast majority of on-chain chips are currently in a state of extreme profitability.
High unrealized profits indicate that potential selling pressure is rapidly building up.
At this stage, the market may face a washout at any time,
so it's crucial to remain rational amid the frenzy and prioritize risk management.
2. True Bear Market Bottom Characteristics
This model reveals a historical iron law:
In past major bear markets, before the true macro bottom appears,
there must be a thorough washout characterized by a series of death crosses.
The benchmark line representing the network average cost
must successively break through mid-term, long-term, and finally pierce the ultra-long-term holder's cost line.
Only when the market's average cost drops below the bottom line of the most steadfast holders,
with chips thoroughly exchanged, can the bear market bottom truly be established.
The current indicator status shows that
the moving average representing the network cost has not only failed to break any long-term cost lines but is actually at a high level. This indicates that we are currently in the profit-taking phase of the cycle.
In the face of an overall extremely profitable market, avoid blindly chasing highs.
For investors holding low-cost chips,
planning reasonable staggered profit-taking or strictly adjusting stop-loss baselines
is the most prudent response in this stage.
#链上指标 #welinkBTC $BNB