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$BTC Bitcoin 24 On-Chain Cycle Indicators (VIII)

BTC: LTH Market Cap in Loss / Market Cap [Except > 10Y]
BTC: Market Cap Loss / Market Cap > [Excluding 10 Years]

Current: 10.3% | Bear Threshold: 27% | Distance: -16.7%
Current Value: 10.3% | Bear Threshold: 27% | Distance: -16.7%

In Bitcoin's market cycle, the profit and loss status of Long-Term Holders (LTH) often serves as a key indicator for determining market bottoms and macro cycles.

This metric measures the percentage of active Bitcoin market cap held by long-term holders who are underwater (i.e., the current price is below their purchase price).

When this ratio hits extreme levels, it typically signals that even the most steadfast long-term holders have experienced maximum capitulation and shakeouts, and historical experience suggests that this often creates excellent generational buying opportunities.

The '27%' Iron Law in Historical Cycles
By reviewing past complete bull and bear cycles,
this metric has shown remarkable consistency.
Whenever the loss market cap ratio approaches around 27%,
it has accurately correlated with historical bear market bottoms:

2015 Bear Market Bottom: Metric reached 27.3% peak (price at $152), leading to the super bull market of 2017 that soared to $20,000.
2018 Bear Market Bottom: Metric reached 27.5% peak (price at $3,122), which birthed the bull market wave of 2021 that approached $69,000.
2022 Bear Market Bottom: Metric reached 27.4% peak (price at $15,476), subsequently driving a recovery that broke above $73,000.

Current Ratio: 10.3%
7-Day Trend: Currently Rising
Distance to Bear Market Threshold (27%): -16.7%
Current Bitcoin Reference Price: Approximately $78,018

Currently, the metric records at 10.3%,
indicating a 'high' state as determined by the system,
and showing a short-term upward trend,
which suggests that recent market volatility has led to some holders being underwater.
However, in the longer term,
the current 10.3% is still 16.7% away from the 'absolute despair bottom' at 27%.
This means that while there is some selling pressure and losses among holders in the current market,
it is far from reaching the historical level of complete capitulation.

#welinkBTC $BTC

$HYPE About 76% of HYPE is staked, and almost all of it has been completed through direct protocol staking.

In contrast, the liquid staking scale is still relatively small, with only about 22 million HYPE, but even within this portion, concentration is rapidly emerging.

HyperLend alone holds nearly half of the liquid staking supply, and a significant portion of that has been cycled: users stake HYPE, package it, and then borrow against it again. kHYPE dominates the deposits, while wHYPE is more commonly seen on the borrowing side.

This makes the actual circulating supply appear extremely limited compared to the apparent supply. When most tokens are locked, packaged, or re-collateralized, price fluctuations actually depend on a liquidity pool much smaller than the surface data.

$HYPE

$BTC Bitcoin 24 On-chain Cycle Indicators (VII)

BTC: LTH/STH Cost Basis Ratio
BTC: LTH/SSH Cost Basis Ratio

LTH RP: $52.6K | STH RP: $79.2K | Ratio: 0.6639
LTH RP: 52.6K USD | STH RP: 79.2K USD | Ratio: 0.6639

Cycle Signals from LTH and STH Cost Basis Ratios

Recently, the cost basis ratio of long-term and short-term Bitcoin holders has shown a notable upward trend. This metric compares the realized prices (average costs) of long-term holders versus short-term holders,
providing a clear reflection of market distribution and the latent period for cycle transitions.

Current Core Data:
BTC is currently trading around $78,000.
Average cost for long-term holders (holding for over 155 days) is approximately $52,400.
Average cost for short-term holders (holding for no more than 155 days) is approximately $79,400.
The current LTH to STH cost basis ratio has climbed to 0.6639,
and the recent trend continues to point upwards.

From historical data,
when this ratio is below 0.48,
it typically indicates the market is in a deep accumulation phase of a bear market.
When the ratio breaks above 0.48 and eventually peaks,
it signifies that the costs for long-term holders begin to align with those of short-term holders,
which historically has often been a leading signal for the onset of a new bull market.

Looking back at the pivot points of the last three cycles:
2014 to 2015 cycle: The ratio rose from 0.48 to peak in 301 days, followed by the bull market.
2018 to 2019 cycle: The ratio rose from 0.48 to peak in 266 days, followed by the bull market.
2022 to 2023 cycle: The ratio rose from 0.48 to peak in 244 days, followed by the bull market.

In the current cycle,
the ratio crossed the baseline of 0.48 in early April 2024,
thereafter embarking on a long climb.
The current ratio of 0.6639 has reached a recent high,
and both the 7-day and 30-day averages show a robust upward slope.
The sustained rise in the ratio indicates that the market is experiencing deep capital turnover and cost reconstruction.

As the cost gap between long-term and short-term holdings continues to narrow,
the market is gradually approaching historical trend reversal points.
When this metric ultimately peaks (costs converge between long and short-term holders),
it is highly likely that we will see a new wave of strong trend movements.

#welinkBTC #链上指标 $BTC

Watch the perpetual contract DEX for pre-launch tokens accumulating points,
basically keeping an eye on the future token supply being priced in early.

Projects like GRVT, Extended, Hibachi, Ethereal, etc.,
are driving trading volume and open interest (OI)
even without their tokens being live,
so the incentive layer is doing most of the heavy lifting.

Recent projects provide benchmark references.
You can estimate the final fully diluted valuation (FDV)
by analyzing trading volume and open interest,
and see which projects remain strong after the incentive cool-off.

Currently, the only perps DEXs still in play are GRVT and Standx,
allowing for mutual hedging.
Gateway:
https://grvt.io/exchange/sign-up?ref=9XAPB2C

https://standx.com/referral?code=welinkBTC

Grvt is expected to launch its TGE in June, with just over a month left.
Standx is also nearing its launch; hopefully, it won't get wrecked.

#welinkBTC $BNB

The narrative of $SUI is shifting from "fast L1" to a full-stack infrastructure focused on payments, finance, and AI.

The integration of RedotPay is a tangible step in this direction.

Now, through one of the largest crypto cards (with a monthly trading volume of around $400 million),
users can spend SUI and native USDC on Sui,
which means they can transact at over 130 million merchants.

The key point is:
they're using native USDC, not a bridged version.
This is the core argument—faster settlement speed + lower fees → enabling real payment applications.

This is how L1 achieves product-market fit.

$SUI

$BTC Bitcoin 24 On-Chain Cycle Indicators (Six)

BTC: STH-Realized-Price to <10y-Realized-Price Ratio
BTC Short-Term vs Long-Term Realized Price Ratio (STH/<10y RP Ratio)

STH RP: $79.5K | <10y RP: $30.5K | Ratio: 2.60
STH RP: 79.5K | <10 Year RP: $30.5K | Ratio: 2.60

Current Ratio: 2.60
Average Cost of Short-Term Holders (STH): Approximately $79,500
Average Cost of Long-Term Holders (<10y): Approximately $30,500
7-Day Trend: Continuing to Decline (Falling)

This indicator is primarily used to gauge the cost differences of chips between new and old players in the market.

STH (Short-Term Holders) represents chips held for less than 155 days, reflecting the sentiment and costs of recent buyers;
<10y RP (Long-Term Holders) represents active chips held from 155 days to 10 years, excluding early bitcoin that may have been permanently lost.

The ratio obtained by dividing both is a classic on-chain barometer for determining whether the market is overheated or bottoming out.

The market sentiment remains optimistic: the current ratio is 2.60, significantly greater than 1.
This indicates that the cost for new buyers entering recently (around $80K) is much higher than the cost for old players (about $30K).
Historically, a ratio greater than 1 typically suggests the market is in an optimistic phase.

Short-term sentiment is cooling down: Notably, the 7-day trend of this ratio shows a “decline,” with an average daily drop of about 0.0102.
This indicates that the market is digesting previous bullish sentiment, with short positions moving closer to long positions, which is a normal process of squeezing out an overheated bubble.
The current system rating is “low risk.”

In the on-chain cycle,
we need to focus on several key thresholds when this indicator tests downward:

Ratio 1.36 (Bottom Alert Line): Historical data shows that when this ratio falls to 1.36, it typically signals that a bear market bottom is imminent.

The 2014-2015 cycle saw a bottom 63 days after hitting this mark;
2018-2019 saw it in 56 days;
2022 saw it in 7 days.
The current ratio has a space of 1.24 to reach 1.36.

Ratio < 1 (Absolute Bottom Signal): When the ratio falls below 1, it means short-term buyers face full losses, and the “weak hands” in the market are completely flushed out, often marking an excellent historical-level buy zone.

According to the current decline rate, the system estimates it will take about 158 days to reach 1.0.

$BTC #welinkBTC

$BTC Bitcoin 24 On-Chain Cycle Indicators (5)

BTC: Median Realized Price
BTC: Median Realized Price
Median Realized Price: $71.2K | Price/Median: 1.10
Median Realized Price: $71,185 | Price/Median: 1.10

Median Realized Price Indicator

Current Core Data Overview
Current BTC Price: $78,012
Median Realized Price: $71,185
Price to Median Ratio: 1.0959
Monthly Trend: Stable

The Median Realized Price refers to the median price at which all Bitcoins last saw on-chain activity. In simple terms, half of the Bitcoins in circulation were bought (or moved) at prices above this level, while the other half were acquired below this price.

Unlike the “average cost,” which can be skewed by large whale transactions, the median provides a more objective and accurate reflection of the true cost basis for the “typical investor” in the market.

Historically,
The median holding cost has shown a solid long-term uptrend:
One year ago cost: $51,843 (YoY increase of 37.3%)
Four years ago cost: $32,879

Over the past four years,
The cost basis for the typical investor has jumped from around $32,000 to over $71,000,
A surge of 117%.
This visually reflects the long-term shift in the consensus value of Bitcoin.

Currently, the BTC price ($78,012) is approaching and slightly above the Median Realized Price ($71,185).

This indicator typically plays an extremely strong support or resistance role in the market.

With current prices close to this level,

It means the market is testing the break-even line for typical Bitcoin holders.

The current deviation ratio of 1.09 indicates that the market is generally in a mild profit state without exhibiting overheated sentiment. Investors should closely monitor the effectiveness of support around $71,000, which represents the defensive baseline for core market participants.

#welinkBTC $BTC

The holder distribution chart shows that Bitcoin supply is highly concentrated at the top.

Satoshi alone holds over 1.1 million BTC,
while exchanges like Coinbase (around 998,000 BTC) and ETFs like BlackRock's IBIT (around 800,000 BTC) control a massive liquidity supply pool.

What changes over time is the identity of the holders.
In the early days, Bitcoin was relatively static,
but now a large portion is concentrated in custodians, ETFs, and centralized exchanges,
which means that the same Bitcoin might experience accelerated transfers during liquidity shifts.

$BTC #welinkBTC

It's about time for liquidity in the crypto space to revert!

USDT just hit a new all-time high in supply.

This means there's more on-chain dollar liquidity than ever before.

But that alone isn't a bullish signal.

It indicates that more capital has entered the system—sitting in stablecoins, waiting to be deployed.

Liquidity is there, but the direction is still uncertain.

$BTC
$ETH

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Top 10 Holders of Bitcoin $BTC

How Retail Traders Can Compete with Institutional Whales

$BTC Bitcoin 24 On-Chain Cycle Indicator (Part IV)

BTC: Realized Profit to Realized Loss Ratio
BTC: Realized Profit to Realized Loss Ratio

Current Ratio: 0.87 | Below 1.0 (Bear Bottom Zone)
Current Ratio: 0.87 | Below 1.0 (Bear Bottom Zone)

BTC's realized profit-loss ratio has dropped below 1.0, could this signal the historical bear market bottom?

Market sentiment is currently low,
but the on-chain data is sending us key signals.
Today, we’ll break down an extremely important on-chain cycle indicator — BTC's realized profit-loss ratio.

Core Data Overview
Current Ratio: 0.87 (has fallen below the absolute critical point of 1.0)
Current Status: Bear Market Bottom Range
Short-Term Trend: 7-day moving average shows a slight uptick, but overall value is still deep in the bottom

The realized profit-loss ratio compares the total realized profits to total realized losses of Bitcoin that has been transferred on the entire network.

When this ratio is below 1, it means the total capital for stop-loss sell-offs on-chain has exceeded the total capital for profit-taking. This indicates that the market is in a typical capitulation phase, with retail investors and weak holders desperately cashing out their chips.

Historical Cycle Confirmation, according to the candlestick patterns,

This indicator breached the early warning line of 2.2 on January 3, 2026, and has since experienced 109 days of consolidation.

Looking at history,
whenever the profit-loss ratio drops from 2.2 down to 1.0,
it has accurately corresponded to the bottoms of previous bear markets:

2014 to 2015 Bear Market: Took 53 days to bottom
2018 to 2019 Bear Market: Took 64 days to bottom
2022 Bear Market: Took 218 days to bottom

In this cycle, the indicator has not only reached 1.0,
but has further dipped to 0.87, clearly indicating that we are in the bottom range.
Every time the market reaches a state of despair,
it often nurtures a new cycle of opportunities.
Current on-chain data suggests that
the most painful selling pressure phase may be nearing its end.
The darkest hour is always just before the dawn,
now is not the time for blind panic,
but perhaps a moment to reassess positions for long-term strategies.

#welinkBTC #链上指标 $BTC $BNB

$BTC Bitcoin 24 On-Chain Cycle Indicators (III)

BTC: <10y/<7y/<5y LTH-Realized-Price
BTC: <10 years/<7 years/<5 years realized price

BTC long-term holders realized price cross-analysis model.

By observing the average holding costs across different holding periods,
we can clearly determine the current market cycle position.

Core Data Interpretation
Current BTC Price: approx. $77,979
Network Average Cost (0 to 10 years): $32,586
Mid-term HODLer Cost (6 months to 5 years): $53,195
Long-term HODLer Cost (6 months to 7 years): $41,743
Ultra-long-term HODLer Cost (6 months to 10 years): $29,972

1. Market is in a high-risk zone
The current coin price far exceeds all holding cost lines.
This means that the vast majority of on-chain chips are currently in a state of extreme profitability.
High unrealized profits indicate that potential selling pressure is rapidly building up.
At this stage, the market may face a washout at any time,
so it's crucial to remain rational amid the frenzy and prioritize risk management.

2. True Bear Market Bottom Characteristics
This model reveals a historical iron law:
In past major bear markets, before the true macro bottom appears,
there must be a thorough washout characterized by a series of death crosses.
The benchmark line representing the network average cost
must successively break through mid-term, long-term, and finally pierce the ultra-long-term holder's cost line.
Only when the market's average cost drops below the bottom line of the most steadfast holders,
with chips thoroughly exchanged, can the bear market bottom truly be established.

The current indicator status shows that
the moving average representing the network cost has not only failed to break any long-term cost lines but is actually at a high level. This indicates that we are currently in the profit-taking phase of the cycle.
In the face of an overall extremely profitable market, avoid blindly chasing highs.
For investors holding low-cost chips,
planning reasonable staggered profit-taking or strictly adjusting stop-loss baselines
is the most prudent response in this stage.

#链上指标 #welinkBTC $BNB

Since switching to collaboration status on $BTC , Bitcoin has surged about 11%,
exceeding the average of roughly 5.7% for the same period,
but it's still within historical ranges.

What's truly rare is entering this phase—only about one-third of such cycles make it to day 21.

Once we hit this milestone,
the odds start to shift.
More than half of these cycles tend to extend beyond 100 days,
which alters the way momentum builds up.

For the market,
this is an early confirmation signal,
not a peak warning.
The subsequent trend hinges on whether the flow of funds and position setups can consistently solidify the current phase.

$BTC

April 24, 2026 | Smart Money Movements

Top Smart Money Inflows (7 days)
• LDO +$206k
- This week, Ethereum saw the highest net inflow of smart money over the past seven days
• AERO +$763k (Base Network)
- Hypersphere Ventures increased their holdings by 1.8 million tokens this week

Largest Smart Money Holdings
• UNI $133 million - held by 30 smart money wallets
• ONDO $90 million - held by 19 smart money wallets
• WLD $52 million - held by 21 smart money wallets
• AAVE $34 million - held by 11 smart money wallets
• JUP $3.2 million - held by 22 smart money wallets (Solana Network)
• PUMP $3 million - held by 20 smart money wallets

Emerging Trends
• Base Network back in the spotlight:
AERO has seen institutional smart money accumulation, with Hypersphere recently increasing their position, and both Arca and Apollo Capital have made their moves
• Solana's smart money holdings lean towards Meme coins:
FARTCOIN ($1.6 million) and PENGU ($1.1 million) rank among the top ten in smart money holdings

Smart money positions remain strong this week.
Funds on Ethereum are locked into DeFi blue chips and RWA tokens.
The Base Network is marked by AERO,
showing the clearest signals of new positions
Smart money wallet activity on Solana remains active but leans towards high-risk positions.

📱Nansen Data Analysis:
https://app.nansen.ai/ref?qE5JIxOgV6o

#welinkBTC $BTC $ETH

$BTC What's happening now feels like a brutal correction.

Every cycle follows the same pattern:

→ Hype
→ Shortcuts fail
→ Reality check
→ Return to fundamentals

But zooming out:

· DeFi TVL: from $55 billion to $270 billion
· Stablecoins: from about $120 billion to $251 billion
· Tokenized treasuries: from $1.3 billion to $13.8 billion
· DEX market share: from 6% to 21%

Every cycle looks lifeless at the bottom.
Then the real builders keep delivering.

This is exactly when weak projects fade and real products start to shine.

#welinkBTC $BNB $HUMA

Hey bros,
Another top-tier project in the making!
Nava AI is likely to launch a token soon.
Hurry up and get on the whitelist!
Portal:
https://navalabs.ai/

Backers:
Polychain
Hack VC
FalconX
EigenLayer founder Sreeram Kannan is joining as an angel investor.

Team:
Co-founder @vyas_krishnan was the first employee at EigenLayer (former head of product).
Another co-founder @zkBri is the former VP of growth at Eigen Foundation.

Good news, we've got another project to jump into!
Bad news, it might just end up being a rug pull.

#welinkBTC $BTC