5🈷️24th $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
News:
Yesterday, BTC dipped to around 74000 but quickly rebounded, partly due to Trump announcing a Middle East peace deal (including agreements related to Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz), which eased geopolitical risks and boosted risk assets 🚀
Macro Background: Inflation pressures persist, and the bond market is weakening; BTC is seen as a hedge asset. Analysts noted that BTC has ended its longest period of underperformance against the S&P 500 (142 days) and may be entering a new relatively strong phase.
Liquidity:
ETF Flows: Cumulative inflows for 2026 are still positive, but the growth rate is slower than in 2024-2025. There was a significant outflow of $635M in a single day during mid-month (3-month high), with a daily net outflow of about $105M around May 22. Major products like BlackRock IBIT contributed to the main fluctuations.
Funding Rates: After a prolonged negative value, funding rates are trending toward mild positive or neutral, indicating sufficient leverage unwinding. There is potential for a short squeeze, but it's not overly crowded. Historically, extended periods of negative funding often signal bottoming regions (like around the $60k low in February).
On-Chain: Active addresses and transaction volumes are on the rise, while holder behavior is becoming dormant (profit supply ratio is increasing but not extreme). Miner income remains stable, presenting strong bottom signals overall, though new capital inflow is limited.
Technical Analysis:
The market has been significantly affected by news, but it is still moving according to our expectations. As mentioned yesterday, the price was set to make a move from this position since the larger trend hasn't stopped declining. However, even if it dips further from here, we need to watch for a divergence on the four-hour chart, which indeed has formed a bottom divergence. Next, we should pay attention to a potential rebound at the zero axis level on the four-hour chart.
The market has returned to the 76400 to 77700 range, and this V-shaped reversal was primarily driven by news-induced momentum. Therefore, we will likely see some time spent oscillating for recovery, so intraday trading will probably revolve around this range. In summary, smaller timeframes will need to oscillate while the larger trend remains supported at this level on the weekly chart, indicating that further dips may present opportunities for dollar-cost averaging.
$BTC
$ETH
News:
Yesterday, BTC dipped to around 74000 but quickly rebounded, partly due to Trump announcing a Middle East peace deal (including agreements related to Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz), which eased geopolitical risks and boosted risk assets 🚀
Macro Background: Inflation pressures persist, and the bond market is weakening; BTC is seen as a hedge asset. Analysts noted that BTC has ended its longest period of underperformance against the S&P 500 (142 days) and may be entering a new relatively strong phase.
Liquidity:
ETF Flows: Cumulative inflows for 2026 are still positive, but the growth rate is slower than in 2024-2025. There was a significant outflow of $635M in a single day during mid-month (3-month high), with a daily net outflow of about $105M around May 22. Major products like BlackRock IBIT contributed to the main fluctuations.
Funding Rates: After a prolonged negative value, funding rates are trending toward mild positive or neutral, indicating sufficient leverage unwinding. There is potential for a short squeeze, but it's not overly crowded. Historically, extended periods of negative funding often signal bottoming regions (like around the $60k low in February).
On-Chain: Active addresses and transaction volumes are on the rise, while holder behavior is becoming dormant (profit supply ratio is increasing but not extreme). Miner income remains stable, presenting strong bottom signals overall, though new capital inflow is limited.
Technical Analysis:
The market has been significantly affected by news, but it is still moving according to our expectations. As mentioned yesterday, the price was set to make a move from this position since the larger trend hasn't stopped declining. However, even if it dips further from here, we need to watch for a divergence on the four-hour chart, which indeed has formed a bottom divergence. Next, we should pay attention to a potential rebound at the zero axis level on the four-hour chart.
The market has returned to the 76400 to 77700 range, and this V-shaped reversal was primarily driven by news-induced momentum. Therefore, we will likely see some time spent oscillating for recovery, so intraday trading will probably revolve around this range. In summary, smaller timeframes will need to oscillate while the larger trend remains supported at this level on the weekly chart, indicating that further dips may present opportunities for dollar-cost averaging.
$BTC
$ETH