Bitcoin Bear Market Second Half Script
Bitcoin briefly dipped below 75k on May 23 and rebounded, but yesterday it once again fell below 75k, effectively breaking this short-term support level.
This means that the mid-term rebound in Bitcoin's bear market (Wave B) has ended, and we are now entering the second half of the bear market (Wave C).
Looking at past Bitcoin bear markets;
The drop in Wave C typically doesn't fall below that of Wave A (a drop of 53%), so it's highly likely that the bear market bottom will be below 40k, with target levels possibly in the previously calculated bear market bottom range of 37k-40k.
The duration of Wave C usually lasts at least as long as Wave A (4 months), and the initial drop speed of Wave C is significantly slower than that of Wave A, which confirms this point. Therefore, the duration of Wave C is likely to be longer than Wave A, possibly around 5 months or even more, with the bear market bottom likely being seen in this year's Q4.
Currently, the wave structure of Bitcoin's bear market is likely a zigzag structure (5-3-5), indicating that Wave C is probably a five-wave structure. Below is speculation on the sub-waves of Wave C:
Sub-wave 1 may test the support area of 65k-70k, with Sub-wave 1 of Wave C lasting over 3 weeks and still ongoing, whereas Sub-wave 1 of Wave A lasted less than two weeks. From this perspective, the probability of Wave C lasting over 5 months is quite high;
Sub-wave 3 is likely to drop below 60k, with target levels in the 50-55k range;
Sub-wave 4 may rebound to the 60-63k range;
Sub-wave 5 targets the 37k-40k range.
Bitcoin briefly dipped below 75k on May 23 and rebounded, but yesterday it once again fell below 75k, effectively breaking this short-term support level.
This means that the mid-term rebound in Bitcoin's bear market (Wave B) has ended, and we are now entering the second half of the bear market (Wave C).
Looking at past Bitcoin bear markets;
The drop in Wave C typically doesn't fall below that of Wave A (a drop of 53%), so it's highly likely that the bear market bottom will be below 40k, with target levels possibly in the previously calculated bear market bottom range of 37k-40k.
The duration of Wave C usually lasts at least as long as Wave A (4 months), and the initial drop speed of Wave C is significantly slower than that of Wave A, which confirms this point. Therefore, the duration of Wave C is likely to be longer than Wave A, possibly around 5 months or even more, with the bear market bottom likely being seen in this year's Q4.
Currently, the wave structure of Bitcoin's bear market is likely a zigzag structure (5-3-5), indicating that Wave C is probably a five-wave structure. Below is speculation on the sub-waves of Wave C:
Sub-wave 1 may test the support area of 65k-70k, with Sub-wave 1 of Wave C lasting over 3 weeks and still ongoing, whereas Sub-wave 1 of Wave A lasted less than two weeks. From this perspective, the probability of Wave C lasting over 5 months is quite high;
Sub-wave 3 is likely to drop below 60k, with target levels in the 50-55k range;
Sub-wave 4 may rebound to the 60-63k range;
Sub-wave 5 targets the 37k-40k range.