加密币报

Private message method, scan the Binance QR code to proceed

交易过程中，常见的专业名词详解：
1、仓位：指投资人实有投资和实际投资资金的比例。
2、全仓：全部资金买入虚拟货币。
3、减仓：把部分虚拟货币卖出，但不全部卖出。
4、重仓：可用资金和虚拟货币相比，虚拟货币份额占多。
5、轻仓：可用资金和虚拟货币相比，可用资金份额占多。
6、空仓：把手里所持虚拟货币全部卖出，全部转为资金。
7、止盈：获得一定收益后，将所持虚拟货币卖出以保住盈利。
8、止损：亏损到一定程度后，将所持虚拟货币卖出，以防止亏损进一步扩大。
9、牛市：价格持续上升，前景乐观。
10、熊市：价格持续下跌，前景黯淡。
11、多头（做多）：买方，认为币价未来会上涨，买入币，待币价上涨后，高价卖出获利。
12、空头（做空）：卖方，认为币价未来会下跌，将手中持有的币（或向交易平台借币）卖出，待币价下跌后，低价买入获利。
13、建仓：买入虚拟货币。
14、补仓：分批买入虚拟货币，如：先买入1BTC，之后再买入1BTC。
15、全仓：将所有资金一次性全部买入虚拟货币。
16、反弹：币价下跌时，因下跌过快而价格回升调整。
17、盘整（横盘）：价格波动幅度较小，币价稳定。
18、阴跌：币价缓慢下滑。
19、跳水（瀑布）：币价快速下跌，幅度很大。
20、割肉：买入虚拟货币后，币价下跌，为避免亏损扩大而赔本卖出虚拟货币。或借币做空后，币价上涨，赔本买入虚拟货币。
21、套牢：预期币价上涨，不料买入后币价却下跌；或预期币价下跌，不料卖出后，币价却上涨

Share a steady starting method suitable for beginners, starting with 10U. The focus is on cultivating discipline in practice rather than getting rich overnight. This method has been personally verified and is especially suitable for newcomers.

First, take 10U in capital and split it into two parts (each part 5U). For the first trade, use 5U to open a position, and it is recommended to choose a mainstream coin like Ethereum (ETH), where with 100x leverage you can buy about 0.3 coins. Key rules:

• Set a stop loss at 20%: for example, with a 5U capital, if it drops to 4U, you must cut the position, don't hold on!

• Set a take profit at 100%: if you earn 10U, exit, don't be greedy!

Remember these stage goals:

• Win 3 times in a row: capital goes from 10U→20U→40U→80U (use half of the funds for each operation)

• After reaching 80U: start to split positions, only use 10U for each trade, leaving 8 chances for trial and error (only lose after 8 liquidations)

• After reaching 200U: you can increase investment appropriately, but before reaching 1000U, you must use the isolated margin mode (only lose the funds of the individual position, not affecting the principal)

The operating iron rules must be strictly adhered to:

1. If the direction is wrong, admit it immediately: lose 20% and cut, don’t wait for a rebound, the more you hold, the more you lose!

2. Never go all in: always keep half of the funds in reserve.

3. Take profit when you have enough: stop at a 100% profit, even if it later rises 10 times, it has nothing to do with you!

4. Use isolated margin mode: calculate risks independently for each trade, liquidation only loses the money of that single trade, not affecting the overall situation!

What is the core of this method?
It’s not about making big money in the short term, but cultivating good habits at minimal cost:

• Learn to strictly stop losses (cut at a 20% loss, no hesitation)

• Refuse greed (take profit at 1x, don’t envy others’ doubling coins)

• Split positions for trial and error (keep enough capital for multiple attempts, avoid going to zero after one liquidation)

Beginners remember: the crypto world is not short of myths of getting rich quickly, but lacks those who can survive to seize opportunities. First, use this 10U to practice discipline, once you understand stop loss, take profit, and position management, then talk about making big money!

BTC price has firmly held near the 0 axis of the descending channel!!
The expected breakdown of the lower edge of this ascending triangle has not occurred!

The bullish volume on the four-hour chart is slightly stronger than the bearish volume! Therefore, the BTC price has not experienced a significant drop for now, but has instead oscillated upwards and rebounded.

We need to continue to observe whether the price will break through above 94,500, and if it breaks through successfully, then the price is very likely to reach the 0.618 level, around 98,500.

加密散户在牛市阶段有个很大的困境，

而且这个困境已经大到不是简单亏钱两个字能概括的，是一种自下而上的无力感。

困境在于，很多散户投资者的大方向没看错，却赚不到钱。

很多散户其实方向上是对的，看多 BTC / ETH，看好多条主流公链，看好 AI / L2 / DeFi 这些长期赛道，

但当BTC、SOL、主流大盘涨了一大截，自己的账户金额不仅没变还可能缩水。

明明在车上没有踏空趋势，但是几乎没有任何盈利。

散户的对手现在是VC、团队、机器人，系统化的撸毛工作室，

早期轮、做市商、团队筹码轮不到散户，

交易端有量化做市、MEV bot，散户下单时已经到了信息和速度的最末端。

以前还能靠一套粗糙节奏活着，减半然后BTC 牛市，再到山寨季然后慢慢回调，

这一轮大部分散户的体会基本上是，明明是牛市的一部分，我的整体资产和熊市没什么区别。

于是现在还在坚持的散户普遍处在一种很尴尬的中间态：

-又不甘心只拿 BTC、ETH
-又没有时间精力算法去当科学家
-也不想当纯赌狗去赌VC和MEME币

现在的加密散户急需一场漂亮的翻身仗，找到下一个BTC、ETH共识，或者索性抱死BTC大腿永远不去理会其他财富效应。

比特币从周线级别来看，现在的走势和2022年1月底的走势很像
1、都是双顶走势
2、K线都跌破了牛熊分界线MA60，处于MA120—MA60之间的悬空状态
3、MACD指标都下了零轴

因此未来一个月，BTC依旧会走震荡行情，震荡区间为80000—100000，接下来一两周若二次回踩能守住前低8万，后续将会反复去冲击10万大关

近期行情波动很大啊，忽上忽下，究竟发生了什么？昨晚美联储降息25个基点，鲍威尔发言说未来不会加息，只是是否降息的问题，一波利好BTC突破$94000，但很快下来！

这几天的分析我们说了，要站稳$9400会反复测试，BTC如果反弹，97000-102000就清仓现货吧！

当下行情扑朔迷离，我们最好从链上数据解密

（1）交易所内的稳定币持续流出，显示出大部分玩家信心低迷，亏得差不多了。

（2）交易所内的BTC持续流出，Binance流出也多，反应出巨鲸继续吸筹，也有可能是左手买 右手卖。

我们不能跟机构比，这些人布局的不是1-2年周期，而是3-5年以上，类似黄金这样的翻倍大行情。

所以正如我们之前的分析所说，当前是一个换手期，传统玩家的BTC转移到机构和资本手里，这个过程充满了阵痛，需要一定的时间。但从链上数据来看，可能也只会持续1-2个月。

此后，配合一些政策性利好与美联储降息，2026年会引来一波令人意想不到的行情。

分析仅是友情参考，成年人要为自己的决策负责，投资有风险，请不要冒险冲动，独立思考判断！

$BTC Just say whether it has risen or not, I didn't expect it to rise so quickly and fall just as fast. Damn this market, in the past week I've opened more than ten contracts and spot trades myself, and today I see that my earnings are almost break-even, what a waste of effort!

Sigh, to briefly talk about the market, the recent resistance level of 95,000 dollars has been tested twice without breaking through, which is a bit disappointing. As it stands, as long as the daily close does not fall below the support level of 88,000 dollars, the oversold rebound trend will not be destroyed.

In terms of operations, if I have a light position in spot and long positions, I can still hold on and see. I will continue to pay attention to the two resistance levels of 95,000 dollars and 98,000-100,000 dollars, holding steady and patiently waiting for a direction (such as breaking below 88,000 dollars or breaking through 95,000 dollars) before deciding whether to reduce or increase positions.

The duration of the 4th wave and the 2nd wave is not necessarily close. If the duration of the 2nd wave is relatively short, the duration of the 4th wave will usually be longer.

For example, the duration of the second major wave in the last bull market (2020.8.17-2020.9.8) was very short, lasting only 3 weeks, while the duration of the fourth major wave (2021.4.14-2021.6.22) lasted over 9 weeks, more than three times that of the second major wave.

Currently, Bitcoin is only focused on a pennant pattern. Generally, during a downtrend, this type of movement appears to be an upward trend, but in reality, it often forms a bearish flag. Recently, attention can be paid to changes in candlestick patterns; once it breaks downward, it may signal another decline.

Haven't looked at the market's reaction yet; just finished listening to Powell's speech, sharing some subjective feelings and objective information:
1. This round of interest rate cuts has ended; the next step will be to take a break, similar to the three rounds of cuts at the end of 2024.
2. The entire interest rate cut cycle is not over; at least no one is thinking about raising rates.
3. If looking at non-farm payrolls, the real data is roughly -20,000 each month; non-farm payrolls, due to statistical and modeling reasons, do not truly reflect reality.
4. Buying short-term bonds to ensure sufficient liquidity, thereby maintaining interest rates.
The above is objective information.
Subjective feeling: Not too hawkish, somewhat less hawkish than I expected. Mainly, the decision to start purchasing short-term bonds is considered a relatively dovish action. It also basically confirms that the likelihood of further rate cuts during his term is actually quite low.

The Federal Reserve has now entered garbage time, or a transitional period of a game.

With Hasset coming to the forefront, Powell is actually in a caretaker state. In this context, he cannot be too aggressive, such as significantly cutting rates by 50bp, nor will he directly halt rate cuts; a reduction of 25bp is the best option.

The current situation is quite interesting, as the nominees from both parties on the board are evenly matched.
It is precisely because we are at such an awkward political juncture that Powell can only hold on to data as a shield, but this raises a major question: the shelf life of the forecasts from this meeting is actually very short.

Why do I say this? The impact of the previous government shutdown means there is little data available, and the data that is available is distorted and lagging. The economic predictions and dot plot based on this data are not very credible.

Tonight, the Federal Reserve is essentially driving with a bunch of blurry rearview mirrors. Next week, new non-farm payroll, CPI, and PCE data will be released, and once that new data comes out, all of tonight's predictions may instantly become void.

Therefore, the market will not take tonight's predictions too seriously; this meeting feels more like a necessary formality rather than a long-term guide.

Understanding these two layers of logic, the political constraints coupled with the ambiguity of the data, we can naturally deduce tomorrow's result: this is a hawkish rate cut.

In order to give the market an explanation and to respond to the genuinely worsening employment situation, a 25 basis point cut is inevitable. However, in order to maintain the so-called independence of the Federal Reserve and to leave a way out for the future, Powell must appear particularly tough in his rhetoric.

In fact, the extreme division of opinions in this meeting will be the biggest signal.

Zec long positions should be fully cashed out, the 1-hour level pattern is in an ascending wedge, and there is an M-top. A short-term pullback may occur, and it is also in a top divergence. Considering profit retracement, it is recommended to cash out all long positions, as there is already a considerable profit. Our cost is 359u, and the current price is 440u. Let's not be greedy for the last bit.

BSC meme's necessary conditions for alpha:
To trap ninety percent of people and most of the community's active members to leave.

Refuting common viewpoints:
1. The so-called Binance also needs to make money.
How much money can Binance really make with these meme coins? Is it Binance making money or insiders?
2. The so-called protection of users.
Most of the VC coins on Binance hit their peak right at launch; after finally getting a few meme coins, they're suddenly talking about protecting users?

The relevant personnel on the Binance BSC chain really need to be investigated; they are all pests. The Huangguo incident was just blown up and exposed. Related accounts of the Binance system, including those on TG, Instagram, and YouTube, previously had a bunch of launches and then deleted content because the money they made from wrongdoing was small, so it didn't spread much. Also, the alpha on the coins is ridiculous, with a bunch of insider deals, and the BNB holder washed away ninety-nine percent of the holders on a dead coin for alpha. What is the standard? I can't understand.

December will definitely decline, so according to the common operations of Old Powell, the decision is dovish, and when speaking, it should be hawkish...

The question is, how much influence does Powell's speech have on the market now?

Historically, even if a new Federal Reserve chair has not taken office, the market tends to pay attention to them, thereby reducing the weight of influence of the current chair. So if Powell turns hawkish next, it might not necessarily lead to a decline...

I wonder what you all think?

In the past, a large number of old coins broke historical highs, which was merely the beginning of a bull market.

Now, being liquidated is the true path to harvesting profits.

What kind of coin in the future can break new highs?

It is estimated that only coins with a particularly high number of short sellers have the potential to reach new highs.

Because the cost-effectiveness of simply pushing up prices is too low; there is only the impulse to push up prices to cause liquidations.

Of course, after a spike, in order to prevent you from selling, they might directly pull the plug.

After all, the window for making money won't easily be left open for you.