The recent market fluctuations have been significant, rising and falling unpredictably. What exactly has happened? Last night, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and Powell stated that there would be no rate hikes in the future, only the question of whether to cut rates. This led to a wave of positive sentiment, with BTC breaking above $94000, but it quickly came down!

In our analysis over the past few days, we mentioned that to stabilize at $9400, there would be repeated tests. If BTC rebounds, it's best to liquidate spot positions around 97000-102000!

Currently, the market is shrouded in uncertainty, and it's best to decode the on-chain data.

(1) Stablecoins continue to flow out of exchanges, indicating that most players have low confidence and have incurred significant losses.

(2) BTC continues to flow out of exchanges, with significant outflows from Binance, reflecting that whales continue to accumulate, and it could also mean buying with one hand and selling with the other.

We cannot compare ourselves to institutions; these players are not positioned for 1-2 year cycles, but rather for 3-5 years or more, similar to the doubling market of gold.

Therefore, as we mentioned in our previous analysis, we are currently in a turnover period where traditional players' BTC is being transferred to institutions and capital. This process is filled with growing pains and requires some time. However, based on on-chain data, it may only last for 1-2 months.

After that, combined with some policy-positive developments and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, 2026 may bring about an unexpected market trend.

This analysis is for informational reference only. Adults must take responsibility for their decisions. Investment carries risks; please do not act impulsively and think independently!