【1】 With the big drop in US stocks, Bitcoin is taking a nosedive wave after wave, breaking through the previous low at 60k and hitting 59080 before a slight bounce back. 📉

We've been stressing that if 66k broke, then the 60k support wouldn’t hold either, and I didn't expect it to happen this quickly...

Thinking back to last October when we persistently warned against chasing the bull tail around 120k, and now here we are with Bitcoin below a 50% drop, it feels like just yesterday. Those who were loudly proclaiming the four-year cycle theory being invalid are now silent. The market always teaches those who don't respect its inherent rules; going with the flow is the only way to last long-term 【as shown in the chart】

Looking at the whole market cycle, we've rarely gone wrong with our overall direction, and our strategy has been quite suitable for friends who prefer spot trading.

BTC has reached this position now, and the 4-hour chart has shown a bottom divergence, making a rebound almost inevitable. However, from the current larger cycle viewpoint, while the monthly chart has printed a long bearish candle, we're just starting the month, so we need to keep observing. It's worth noting that after a six-month adjustment, the MACD has finally started to gradually approach the zero axis.

📊 When the MACD of such a high-level cycle first approaches the zero axis, it often accompanies a nice rebound, possibly gradually entering a bottom-building cycle.

【3】 Now, looking at the weekly chart, the pattern isn't looking so optimistic.

A huge bearish candle swallowing three bullish ones, while also showing massive volume, is never a good sign. At least we need to see repeated fluctuations and test previous low support before we can gradually stabilize.

⚠️ The probability of a long spike directly reversing to start a new bull market is extremely low, so everyone should be mentally prepared.

Additionally, the chain reaction from the U.S. stock market crash will continue to ferment, and I expect market volatility will further intensify on Monday, with the possibility of another dip to new lows.

【4】 In terms of position, I'm still focusing on the previously mentioned 57500 area.

This is the position of a very important long-term trend line since 2023, and it's now within reach. Coupled with worsening external conditions, Elon Musk's SpaceX draining resources, and rising interest rate expectations from the Fed, I believe a spike to this level is a reasonable expectation.

🎯 If it gets close to 57500, I think it will be a relatively good entry point for bulls, worth paying close attention to.

The rebound is still ongoing, with short-term pressure mainly concentrated in the 62600 to 64200 range on the 4-hour chart. Only after sufficient fluctuation and breakthrough can we expect further upward movement.

For now, I'm looking at the platform resistance around 69700, and optimistically, there might even be a chance to retrace back to the previously broken flag's lower edge around 71800.

【5】 However, from a larger cycle perspective, due to insufficient time adjustment, the probability of BTC continuing to make new lows after rebounding still exists.

The ultimate bottom area I still have high hopes for is around 54000, as I've mentioned multiple times before. In extreme scenarios, if a black swan event occurs (like MicroStrategy's massive sell-off or a systemic collapse in U.S. stocks), seeing BTC start with a 4 in front wouldn't be surprising.

Of course, even if that position really appears, the duration will be very short, and at that time, most people might not have the courage to jump in. 😅

【6】 Therefore, for spot players, my suggested strategy remains very clear:

✅ Start dollar-cost averaging below 60,000.

✅ Consider investing about 40% around 57000.

✅ Increase position by about 30% near 54000.

✅ Keep a small amount of funds ready for extreme situations.

We'll never buy at the absolute bottom, but we can strategically layer our positions to bring the overall cost down to a much lower level. Once the next bull market cycle starts, the returns will naturally be good.

【7】 Finally, let's talk about altcoins.

For friends who like altcoins, you can gradually allocate based on BTC's position, but be very cautious with future altcoin selections. In the coming years, lack of liquidity is likely to become the biggest challenge for most altcoins.

Honestly, now Binance has started trading U.S. stocks, rather than betting on uncertain future altcoins, I’d prefer to buy some quality assets like MicroStrategy or related growth stocks.

📌 The rise will be equally fierce;

📌 Better liquidity;

📌 Higher safety.

Once more people reach this consensus, many small altcoins might really be close to becoming 'yesterday's news.'

So the future allocation strategy still suggests:

🔥 Focusing on high liquidity mainstream assets like BTC, ETH, SOL;

🔥 For small altcoins, just participate with a light position;

🔥 Try to avoid heavy leverage and going all in.

The market always has opportunities, but surviving gives you the right to wait for the next bull market. 🚀