橙子研究院
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Understanding Bitcoin in One Article: Short-term Trading Logic + Medium-term Risks + Long-term Opportunities
Bitcoin's recent decline has been rapid and fierce. The first strong support we anticipated at 69000 was only slightly resisted before being broken. The trend then continuously fell below the second strong support at 63000, plunging to 60000 before rebounding and beginning to stabilize.
69000 This area is the shallow bear position we defined, and we had high hopes for it, but faced with a reality as fragile as paper, we need to update our thoughts on the upcoming market. The trend has formed, the shallow bear is unlikely, and the deep bear has become a reality!
Looking back at 2025, the most common phrase we hear is that the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has failed, but the market in the past few months has given us a loud slap in the face with reality. As we said, the cycle may be weakened, but it will never fail!
69000 This area is the shallow bear position we defined, and we had high hopes for it, but faced with a reality as fragile as paper, we need to update our thoughts on the upcoming market. The trend has formed, the shallow bear is unlikely, and the deep bear has become a reality!
Looking back at 2025, the most common phrase we hear is that the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has failed, but the market in the past few months has given us a loud slap in the face with reality. As we said, the cycle may be weakened, but it will never fail!
PINNED
Annual Line Long Upper Shadow Sets the Tone! Old Retail Investors Analyze Bitcoin's Two Major Bottom Ranges; the Bear Market is No Longer Just a Short-Term Correction
2025 has passed like this, Bitcoin shines brilliantly in 2025, creating new historical highs, but the vast majority of non-Bitcoin varieties are tragically bleak, with many old retail investors wiped out by the bull market. The market draws candlestick patterns in a state that is both familiar and unfamiliar, telling the story of the industry's maturity and transformation!
The annual line of Bitcoin has closed. From the annual line perspective, it has formed a long upper shadow, with a short body and short lower shadow, signifying an end to its strength, and cannot hide its declining trend. The MA7 of the annual line has approached around 57600. Historically, the bottoms of the last two bear markets have both fallen near the MA7 of the annual line, so this position should be marked. If a deep bear market unfolds, this could very well be the bottom range of the major bear market.
The annual line of Bitcoin has closed. From the annual line perspective, it has formed a long upper shadow, with a short body and short lower shadow, signifying an end to its strength, and cannot hide its declining trend. The MA7 of the annual line has approached around 57600. Historically, the bottoms of the last two bear markets have both fallen near the MA7 of the annual line, so this position should be marked. If a deep bear market unfolds, this could very well be the bottom range of the major bear market.
Can a DEX make 2.4 million in a day, will Binance be overturned?
Binance vs HYPE: A DEX that is challenging the entire exchange industry
Recently, the data from the on-chain derivatives trading platform Hyperliquid (HYPE) has become increasingly exaggerated, even starting to approach centralized exchanges on multiple indicators.
Many people may not have realized one thing: the trading volume of DEX is rapidly eating away at the market share of CEX, and we will look at a few core data points.
1. Revenue ranking: HYPE has already entered the top three in the crypto industry
According to the latest revenue ranking of agreements:
1️⃣ Tether: $16.4M
2️⃣ Circle: $6.84M
3️⃣ Hyperliquid: $2.76M
Recently, the data from the on-chain derivatives trading platform Hyperliquid (HYPE) has become increasingly exaggerated, even starting to approach centralized exchanges on multiple indicators.
Many people may not have realized one thing: the trading volume of DEX is rapidly eating away at the market share of CEX, and we will look at a few core data points.
1. Revenue ranking: HYPE has already entered the top three in the crypto industry
According to the latest revenue ranking of agreements:
1️⃣ Tether: $16.4M
2️⃣ Circle: $6.84M
3️⃣ Hyperliquid: $2.76M
【View remains unchanged: Will BTC rebound continue to see 80,000 USD?】
Simple update on the market:
Overall view remains unchanged from yesterday.
Bitcoin is still in a rebound structure, but there is very obvious pressure above.
Focus on three positions:
Pressure zone: 73,000—74,000
Strong pressure: Around 79,000
Support zone: 68,000—69,000
If it cannot break through the pressure zone with significant volume, the market will likely continue to oscillate.
Recently, there has been a lot of market news, with frequent small cycle spikes, making short-term operations quite challenging; being a bit more patient would be better.
Operational advice: If Bitcoin rebounds above 78,000, consider gradually exiting to take profits.
#比特币重新站上7万美元大关 $BTC #ETH $ETH
Simple update on the market:
Overall view remains unchanged from yesterday.
Bitcoin is still in a rebound structure, but there is very obvious pressure above.
Focus on three positions:
Pressure zone: 73,000—74,000
Strong pressure: Around 79,000
Support zone: 68,000—69,000
If it cannot break through the pressure zone with significant volume, the market will likely continue to oscillate.
Recently, there has been a lot of market news, with frequent small cycle spikes, making short-term operations quite challenging; being a bit more patient would be better.
Operational advice: If Bitcoin rebounds above 78,000, consider gradually exiting to take profits.
#比特币重新站上7万美元大关 $BTC #ETH $ETH
橙子研究院
·
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Bullish【Bitcoin Ascending Flag Has Formed, Rebound Target Directly Aiming at 79660?】
The major coin, influenced by the situation in the Middle East, has been experiencing frequent short-term manipulations, so we need to adjust the cycle relatively higher to observe the market.
From the perspective of the adjusted 2-day line, the major coin's triangle has broken above and completed a retest for confirmation, with effective support above, and the structure for continued upward movement is still very clear. Currently, the price is in a downward trend near the important resistance zone of 73000.
There is significant pressure above, and any rebound will inevitably lead to fluctuations, so short-term trading is quite challenging.
At this stage of the market, the expected retest will be relatively gentle. After all, the news of war has not directly smashed the major coin down, and the short-term resilience has been quite good. The focus should first be on the support around 68000—69000.
In terms of pressure above, the major coin has currently formed an ascending flag structure. The upper part of the flag is the resistance level, approximately around 74900, which overlaps with the resistance zone of 73000—74000, making the pressure here very significant.
Unless there is a substantial breakout, it will be quite difficult to push through directly in the short term, so this area can still be used as a reference for the first reduction in positions.
If the market can indeed break through this resistance area, then the target above can continue to reference the CME gap near 79660.
Lastly, a reminder:
Ascending flags often exist to be broken down.
A rebound is just a rebound; once the structure is broken in the future, the overall downtrend of the major coin is still not over, and the real large-scale low may not have appeared yet. Everyone must keep this in mind.
#比特币重新站上7万美元大关 $BTC #BTC $ETH
The major coin, influenced by the situation in the Middle East, has been experiencing frequent short-term manipulations, so we need to adjust the cycle relatively higher to observe the market.
From the perspective of the adjusted 2-day line, the major coin's triangle has broken above and completed a retest for confirmation, with effective support above, and the structure for continued upward movement is still very clear. Currently, the price is in a downward trend near the important resistance zone of 73000.
There is significant pressure above, and any rebound will inevitably lead to fluctuations, so short-term trading is quite challenging.
At this stage of the market, the expected retest will be relatively gentle. After all, the news of war has not directly smashed the major coin down, and the short-term resilience has been quite good. The focus should first be on the support around 68000—69000.
In terms of pressure above, the major coin has currently formed an ascending flag structure. The upper part of the flag is the resistance level, approximately around 74900, which overlaps with the resistance zone of 73000—74000, making the pressure here very significant.
Unless there is a substantial breakout, it will be quite difficult to push through directly in the short term, so this area can still be used as a reference for the first reduction in positions.
If the market can indeed break through this resistance area, then the target above can continue to reference the CME gap near 79660.
Lastly, a reminder:
Ascending flags often exist to be broken down.
A rebound is just a rebound; once the structure is broken in the future, the overall downtrend of the major coin is still not over, and the real large-scale low may not have appeared yet. Everyone must keep this in mind.
#比特币重新站上7万美元大关 $BTC #BTC $ETH
【Bitcoin Ascending Flag Has Formed, Rebound Target Directly Aiming at 79660?】
The major coin, influenced by the situation in the Middle East, has been experiencing frequent short-term manipulations, so we need to adjust the cycle relatively higher to observe the market.
From the perspective of the adjusted 2-day line, the major coin's triangle has broken above and completed a retest for confirmation, with effective support above, and the structure for continued upward movement is still very clear. Currently, the price is in a downward trend near the important resistance zone of 73000.
There is significant pressure above, and any rebound will inevitably lead to fluctuations, so short-term trading is quite challenging.
At this stage of the market, the expected retest will be relatively gentle. After all, the news of war has not directly smashed the major coin down, and the short-term resilience has been quite good. The focus should first be on the support around 68000—69000.
In terms of pressure above, the major coin has currently formed an ascending flag structure. The upper part of the flag is the resistance level, approximately around 74900, which overlaps with the resistance zone of 73000—74000, making the pressure here very significant.
Unless there is a substantial breakout, it will be quite difficult to push through directly in the short term, so this area can still be used as a reference for the first reduction in positions.
If the market can indeed break through this resistance area, then the target above can continue to reference the CME gap near 79660.
Lastly, a reminder:
Ascending flags often exist to be broken down.
A rebound is just a rebound; once the structure is broken in the future, the overall downtrend of the major coin is still not over, and the real large-scale low may not have appeared yet. Everyone must keep this in mind.
#比特币重新站上7万美元大关 $BTC #BTC $ETH
The major coin, influenced by the situation in the Middle East, has been experiencing frequent short-term manipulations, so we need to adjust the cycle relatively higher to observe the market.
From the perspective of the adjusted 2-day line, the major coin's triangle has broken above and completed a retest for confirmation, with effective support above, and the structure for continued upward movement is still very clear. Currently, the price is in a downward trend near the important resistance zone of 73000.
There is significant pressure above, and any rebound will inevitably lead to fluctuations, so short-term trading is quite challenging.
At this stage of the market, the expected retest will be relatively gentle. After all, the news of war has not directly smashed the major coin down, and the short-term resilience has been quite good. The focus should first be on the support around 68000—69000.
In terms of pressure above, the major coin has currently formed an ascending flag structure. The upper part of the flag is the resistance level, approximately around 74900, which overlaps with the resistance zone of 73000—74000, making the pressure here very significant.
Unless there is a substantial breakout, it will be quite difficult to push through directly in the short term, so this area can still be used as a reference for the first reduction in positions.
If the market can indeed break through this resistance area, then the target above can continue to reference the CME gap near 79660.
Lastly, a reminder:
Ascending flags often exist to be broken down.
A rebound is just a rebound; once the structure is broken in the future, the overall downtrend of the major coin is still not over, and the real large-scale low may not have appeared yet. Everyone must keep this in mind.
#比特币重新站上7万美元大关 $BTC #BTC $ETH
橙子研究院
·
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Bullish【67000 support confirmation, is BTC's rebound target 78000?】
In the articles over the past few days, it has been mentioned that after Bitcoin broke below 70000, it began to look for support downwards, with a key observation point around 67000. This area is not only short-term structural support but also an important defense line at the upper edge of the triangle.
From the current market perspective, it is operating basically as expected. After Bitcoin's lowest dip near 67000, there has been no effective breakdown, but rather support has been gained in this area, followed by a rebound, with the price having returned to around 71000 USD.
Structurally, the support at 67000 has proven to be effective. In the face of two bearish pressures, the price has not made new lows, indicating that bulls are still defending this area in the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
If this structure continues to hold, the market is likely to continue upward correction. The short-term focus should still be on the pressure area around 73000-74000; once it successfully breaks through, the upper space will further open up.
According to the current rhythm, the target for this round of rebound still maintains the previous judgment, with the 78000-80000 range remaining an important reference point for this rebound.
Of course, it should be noted that the current higher-level structure has not fully turned strong, so the market is unlikely to surge up in one go; fluctuations and shakeouts may still accompany it.
Overall, as long as the key support at 67000 is not effectively broken, the market structure still leans towards a rhythm of oscillation and rebound.
Next, focus on two positions:
Lower support: 67000
Upper target: 78000-80000
Operational idea: Hold good spot, wait to exit at the target position for trading.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #伊朗新领袖 $ETH
In the articles over the past few days, it has been mentioned that after Bitcoin broke below 70000, it began to look for support downwards, with a key observation point around 67000. This area is not only short-term structural support but also an important defense line at the upper edge of the triangle.
From the current market perspective, it is operating basically as expected. After Bitcoin's lowest dip near 67000, there has been no effective breakdown, but rather support has been gained in this area, followed by a rebound, with the price having returned to around 71000 USD.
Structurally, the support at 67000 has proven to be effective. In the face of two bearish pressures, the price has not made new lows, indicating that bulls are still defending this area in the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
If this structure continues to hold, the market is likely to continue upward correction. The short-term focus should still be on the pressure area around 73000-74000; once it successfully breaks through, the upper space will further open up.
According to the current rhythm, the target for this round of rebound still maintains the previous judgment, with the 78000-80000 range remaining an important reference point for this rebound.
Of course, it should be noted that the current higher-level structure has not fully turned strong, so the market is unlikely to surge up in one go; fluctuations and shakeouts may still accompany it.
Overall, as long as the key support at 67000 is not effectively broken, the market structure still leans towards a rhythm of oscillation and rebound.
Next, focus on two positions:
Lower support: 67000
Upper target: 78000-80000
Operational idea: Hold good spot, wait to exit at the target position for trading.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #伊朗新领袖 $ETH
【67000 support confirmation, is BTC's rebound target 78000?】
In the articles over the past few days, it has been mentioned that after Bitcoin broke below 70000, it began to look for support downwards, with a key observation point around 67000. This area is not only short-term structural support but also an important defense line at the upper edge of the triangle.
From the current market perspective, it is operating basically as expected. After Bitcoin's lowest dip near 67000, there has been no effective breakdown, but rather support has been gained in this area, followed by a rebound, with the price having returned to around 71000 USD.
Structurally, the support at 67000 has proven to be effective. In the face of two bearish pressures, the price has not made new lows, indicating that bulls are still defending this area in the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
If this structure continues to hold, the market is likely to continue upward correction. The short-term focus should still be on the pressure area around 73000-74000; once it successfully breaks through, the upper space will further open up.
According to the current rhythm, the target for this round of rebound still maintains the previous judgment, with the 78000-80000 range remaining an important reference point for this rebound.
Of course, it should be noted that the current higher-level structure has not fully turned strong, so the market is unlikely to surge up in one go; fluctuations and shakeouts may still accompany it.
Overall, as long as the key support at 67000 is not effectively broken, the market structure still leans towards a rhythm of oscillation and rebound.
Next, focus on two positions:
Lower support: 67000
Upper target: 78000-80000
Operational idea: Hold good spot, wait to exit at the target position for trading.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #伊朗新领袖 $ETH
In the articles over the past few days, it has been mentioned that after Bitcoin broke below 70000, it began to look for support downwards, with a key observation point around 67000. This area is not only short-term structural support but also an important defense line at the upper edge of the triangle.
From the current market perspective, it is operating basically as expected. After Bitcoin's lowest dip near 67000, there has been no effective breakdown, but rather support has been gained in this area, followed by a rebound, with the price having returned to around 71000 USD.
Structurally, the support at 67000 has proven to be effective. In the face of two bearish pressures, the price has not made new lows, indicating that bulls are still defending this area in the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
If this structure continues to hold, the market is likely to continue upward correction. The short-term focus should still be on the pressure area around 73000-74000; once it successfully breaks through, the upper space will further open up.
According to the current rhythm, the target for this round of rebound still maintains the previous judgment, with the 78000-80000 range remaining an important reference point for this rebound.
Of course, it should be noted that the current higher-level structure has not fully turned strong, so the market is unlikely to surge up in one go; fluctuations and shakeouts may still accompany it.
Overall, as long as the key support at 67000 is not effectively broken, the market structure still leans towards a rhythm of oscillation and rebound.
Next, focus on two positions:
Lower support: 67000
Upper target: 78000-80000
Operational idea: Hold good spot, wait to exit at the target position for trading.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #伊朗新领袖 $ETH
橙子研究院
·
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【CME Gap 79660-81210, the ultimate target of this rebound?】
Recently, Bitcoin has been severely affected by news from the Middle East over the past two days, showing volatile performance with several waves of false signals for both buying and selling, making short-term operations quite challenging. However, from a larger cycle perspective, things remain relatively clear, still following the script we previously projected, successfully breaking through and reaching the first resistance level of 74000, with accurate predictions.
As the market reaches this position, the focus should shift to defense. Firstly, we clarify that this is merely a rebound, and due to heavy resistance above, coupled with the constraints of the industry cycle and liquidity, the expectations for the rebound are also quite limited.
At least here at 74000, the market should experience some pressure and volatility. Emotional capital may push the price up to 75000, but ultimately, a pullback is more reasonable, with support around 70000.
Only under the effective support can there be a possibility for further upward movement; if it breaks down, it will fall back into a correction range.
From an optimistic perspective, the endpoint of the rebound continues to reference the CME gap 79660-81210, which is difficult to fill in one go. It will be very challenging to overcome this level; if it can be reached, it is entirely possible to make trades in segments!
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #ETH $ETH
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
Recently, Bitcoin has been severely affected by news from the Middle East over the past two days, showing volatile performance with several waves of false signals for both buying and selling, making short-term operations quite challenging. However, from a larger cycle perspective, things remain relatively clear, still following the script we previously projected, successfully breaking through and reaching the first resistance level of 74000, with accurate predictions.
As the market reaches this position, the focus should shift to defense. Firstly, we clarify that this is merely a rebound, and due to heavy resistance above, coupled with the constraints of the industry cycle and liquidity, the expectations for the rebound are also quite limited.
At least here at 74000, the market should experience some pressure and volatility. Emotional capital may push the price up to 75000, but ultimately, a pullback is more reasonable, with support around 70000.
Only under the effective support can there be a possibility for further upward movement; if it breaks down, it will fall back into a correction range.
From an optimistic perspective, the endpoint of the rebound continues to reference the CME gap 79660-81210, which is difficult to fill in one go. It will be very challenging to overcome this level; if it can be reached, it is entirely possible to make trades in segments!
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #ETH $ETH
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
【The bulls are holding the position, is a big rebound coming?】
Based on yesterday's analysis, the price of Bitcoin began to test support downwards after breaking below 67000, and currently, the price is still operating near this key area of 67000. This position itself is an important defense line on the upper edge of the triangular structure, so the upcoming trend can actually be understood from two directions.
The first situation: The rebound structure is gradually strengthening.
If the market shows a rebound next and the height of the rebound continues to rise, while the bears fail to push the price to new lows twice, it indicates that the bulls are gradually taking the initiative in the current stage of the long-short game.
In other words, the bulls are firmly holding the price position in this area, and once market confidence gradually recovers, it is possible to welcome a truly significant rebound trend.
The second situation: The current rebound is merely symbolic.
If the rebound strength is obviously weak and the rebound space is quite limited, then caution is warranted, as this wave of downward structure may not have truly ended.
In this case, the market is likely to continue extending downward after a brief correction, and it may still test lower positions.
However, even so, it is not entirely a bad thing. Because if the market further dips, it will instead create new important buying opportunities at lower levels.
Overall, the market is still in a critical structural choice phase.
The short-term long and short are still repeatedly contending around 67000.
Operational idea: Currently, the position is only suitable for holding on, even if it falls further, it is still a big opportunity.
#亚洲股市暴跌 $BTC #BTC走势分析 $ETH
Based on yesterday's analysis, the price of Bitcoin began to test support downwards after breaking below 67000, and currently, the price is still operating near this key area of 67000. This position itself is an important defense line on the upper edge of the triangular structure, so the upcoming trend can actually be understood from two directions.
The first situation: The rebound structure is gradually strengthening.
If the market shows a rebound next and the height of the rebound continues to rise, while the bears fail to push the price to new lows twice, it indicates that the bulls are gradually taking the initiative in the current stage of the long-short game.
In other words, the bulls are firmly holding the price position in this area, and once market confidence gradually recovers, it is possible to welcome a truly significant rebound trend.
The second situation: The current rebound is merely symbolic.
If the rebound strength is obviously weak and the rebound space is quite limited, then caution is warranted, as this wave of downward structure may not have truly ended.
In this case, the market is likely to continue extending downward after a brief correction, and it may still test lower positions.
However, even so, it is not entirely a bad thing. Because if the market further dips, it will instead create new important buying opportunities at lower levels.
Overall, the market is still in a critical structural choice phase.
The short-term long and short are still repeatedly contending around 67000.
Operational idea: Currently, the position is only suitable for holding on, even if it falls further, it is still a big opportunity.
#亚洲股市暴跌 $BTC #BTC走势分析 $ETH
橙子研究院
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Bullish【BTC67000 defense line temporarily holds, long and short enter a critical contest area】
The previous article mentioned that after Bitcoin touched the 74000 resistance level, it needed to pull back to find support, and the operation should lean towards defense. Subsequently, the market basically ran as expected, briefly breaking below 70000, with a short-term weakening of the market.
However, from the current chart perspective, Bitcoin ultimately closed back above 67000, maintaining the previously mentioned upper triangle support area, indicating that the bulls are still defending this position.
Current key positions:
Support levels: 67000, 64000 (bull's life and death line)
Resistance levels: 70000, 74000
If 67000 can continue to hold, Bitcoin still has the opportunity to challenge 70000-74000 again;
but if the daily line falls back inside the triangle, then the market is likely to test 64000, or even continue to seek support at 58000-59000.
Overall, the market is still in the stage of directional choice, and fluctuations will be quite repetitive.
Operations: Since you are currently stuck, hold onto the current position. In the short to medium term, it has already dropped a lot; if you endure the spot, it will soon pass. Perhaps the dawn is just ahead, and the expectation for Bitcoin is still to attack near 78000 USD before considering exiting for trading.
#加密市场回调 $BTC #山寨季讨论量跌至两年新低 $ETH
The previous article mentioned that after Bitcoin touched the 74000 resistance level, it needed to pull back to find support, and the operation should lean towards defense. Subsequently, the market basically ran as expected, briefly breaking below 70000, with a short-term weakening of the market.
However, from the current chart perspective, Bitcoin ultimately closed back above 67000, maintaining the previously mentioned upper triangle support area, indicating that the bulls are still defending this position.
Current key positions:
Support levels: 67000, 64000 (bull's life and death line)
Resistance levels: 70000, 74000
If 67000 can continue to hold, Bitcoin still has the opportunity to challenge 70000-74000 again;
but if the daily line falls back inside the triangle, then the market is likely to test 64000, or even continue to seek support at 58000-59000.
Overall, the market is still in the stage of directional choice, and fluctuations will be quite repetitive.
Operations: Since you are currently stuck, hold onto the current position. In the short to medium term, it has already dropped a lot; if you endure the spot, it will soon pass. Perhaps the dawn is just ahead, and the expectation for Bitcoin is still to attack near 78000 USD before considering exiting for trading.
#加密市场回调 $BTC #山寨季讨论量跌至两年新低 $ETH
【 Global stock markets plummet, crude oil surges 20%, is the market trading on war risks?】
Today, a very rare combination appeared in the global market: a sharp drop in the stock market, while crude oil surged.
From the market perspective, Asian stock markets generally weakened, with the Japanese index once approaching -7%, South Korea nearing -8%, and the A-shares and Hong Kong stocks overall in a decline range of -2% to -4%. Meanwhile, crude oil suddenly surged over 20%, with prices directly hitting around $118.
This combination of market conditions often has only one explanation in financial markets: the market is repricing geopolitical risks.
Crude oil is the most sensitive strategic resource globally; once tensions rise in the Middle East or concerns about energy transportation emerge, funds often rush into the crude oil market, driving prices up rapidly.
The decline in the stock market indicates another thing — global funds are reducing risk exposure.
When oil prices rise rapidly, the market typically worries about new inflationary pressures. If inflation rises again, the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may be disrupted, leading to higher interest rates lasting longer, which naturally suppresses stock market valuations.
Therefore, the market is actually entering a very typical phase now:
Risk aversion mode
Simply put:
Funds reduce stock allocations, increase cash ratios, while seeking safe-haven assets.
For the crypto market, this macro environment often means that short-term volatility will significantly increase. Risk assets usually bear pressure together in the first phase, but if the liquidity environment improves subsequently, assets like Bitcoin often rebound faster.
So in the coming period, the most important thing for the market is not to predict ups and downs, but to control positions and wait for new macro directions to emerge.
#国际油价突破100美元 $BTC #伊朗新领袖 $ETH #原油 $BNB
Today, a very rare combination appeared in the global market: a sharp drop in the stock market, while crude oil surged.
From the market perspective, Asian stock markets generally weakened, with the Japanese index once approaching -7%, South Korea nearing -8%, and the A-shares and Hong Kong stocks overall in a decline range of -2% to -4%. Meanwhile, crude oil suddenly surged over 20%, with prices directly hitting around $118.
This combination of market conditions often has only one explanation in financial markets: the market is repricing geopolitical risks.
Crude oil is the most sensitive strategic resource globally; once tensions rise in the Middle East or concerns about energy transportation emerge, funds often rush into the crude oil market, driving prices up rapidly.
The decline in the stock market indicates another thing — global funds are reducing risk exposure.
When oil prices rise rapidly, the market typically worries about new inflationary pressures. If inflation rises again, the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may be disrupted, leading to higher interest rates lasting longer, which naturally suppresses stock market valuations.
Therefore, the market is actually entering a very typical phase now:
Risk aversion mode
Simply put:
Funds reduce stock allocations, increase cash ratios, while seeking safe-haven assets.
For the crypto market, this macro environment often means that short-term volatility will significantly increase. Risk assets usually bear pressure together in the first phase, but if the liquidity environment improves subsequently, assets like Bitcoin often rebound faster.
So in the coming period, the most important thing for the market is not to predict ups and downs, but to control positions and wait for new macro directions to emerge.
#国际油价突破100美元 $BTC #伊朗新领袖 $ETH #原油 $BNB
The most profitable way right now might not be trading coins, but running 🏃♂️, and it's a win-win situation.
Why do I say that? Because when your health is good, you have the energy to make money 💰 and the opportunity to enjoy the happiness that spending money brings 😄.
Anyway, the cryptocurrency market is currently stagnant 📉, and just looking at the charts is enough to drive one to the brink 🤯. Rather than staring at the K-line being constantly harvested, it’s better to go out for a couple of laps. It saves money, brings joy, and helps you get fit in the process 💪.
When the market truly comes alive one day 🚀, while others are still waiting in the hospital 🏥, you’ll already be able to make money while enjoying life 🍻😎.
At that time, you’ll be sunbathing by the sea 🌊☀️, feeling the sea breeze, with arms around friends, experiencing the feeling of being a winner in life 😏. After all, in the crypto world, besides making money, your body must be able to withstand the bull and bear cycles.
Why do I say that? Because when your health is good, you have the energy to make money 💰 and the opportunity to enjoy the happiness that spending money brings 😄.
Anyway, the cryptocurrency market is currently stagnant 📉, and just looking at the charts is enough to drive one to the brink 🤯. Rather than staring at the K-line being constantly harvested, it’s better to go out for a couple of laps. It saves money, brings joy, and helps you get fit in the process 💪.
When the market truly comes alive one day 🚀, while others are still waiting in the hospital 🏥, you’ll already be able to make money while enjoying life 🍻😎.
At that time, you’ll be sunbathing by the sea 🌊☀️, feeling the sea breeze, with arms around friends, experiencing the feeling of being a winner in life 😏. After all, in the crypto world, besides making money, your body must be able to withstand the bull and bear cycles.
【BTC67000 defense line temporarily holds, long and short enter a critical contest area】
The previous article mentioned that after Bitcoin touched the 74000 resistance level, it needed to pull back to find support, and the operation should lean towards defense. Subsequently, the market basically ran as expected, briefly breaking below 70000, with a short-term weakening of the market.
However, from the current chart perspective, Bitcoin ultimately closed back above 67000, maintaining the previously mentioned upper triangle support area, indicating that the bulls are still defending this position.
Current key positions:
Support levels: 67000, 64000 (bull's life and death line)
Resistance levels: 70000, 74000
If 67000 can continue to hold, Bitcoin still has the opportunity to challenge 70000-74000 again;
but if the daily line falls back inside the triangle, then the market is likely to test 64000, or even continue to seek support at 58000-59000.
Overall, the market is still in the stage of directional choice, and fluctuations will be quite repetitive.
Operations: Since you are currently stuck, hold onto the current position. In the short to medium term, it has already dropped a lot; if you endure the spot, it will soon pass. Perhaps the dawn is just ahead, and the expectation for Bitcoin is still to attack near 78000 USD before considering exiting for trading.
#加密市场回调 $BTC #山寨季讨论量跌至两年新低 $ETH
The previous article mentioned that after Bitcoin touched the 74000 resistance level, it needed to pull back to find support, and the operation should lean towards defense. Subsequently, the market basically ran as expected, briefly breaking below 70000, with a short-term weakening of the market.
However, from the current chart perspective, Bitcoin ultimately closed back above 67000, maintaining the previously mentioned upper triangle support area, indicating that the bulls are still defending this position.
Current key positions:
Support levels: 67000, 64000 (bull's life and death line)
Resistance levels: 70000, 74000
If 67000 can continue to hold, Bitcoin still has the opportunity to challenge 70000-74000 again;
but if the daily line falls back inside the triangle, then the market is likely to test 64000, or even continue to seek support at 58000-59000.
Overall, the market is still in the stage of directional choice, and fluctuations will be quite repetitive.
Operations: Since you are currently stuck, hold onto the current position. In the short to medium term, it has already dropped a lot; if you endure the spot, it will soon pass. Perhaps the dawn is just ahead, and the expectation for Bitcoin is still to attack near 78000 USD before considering exiting for trading.
#加密市场回调 $BTC #山寨季讨论量跌至两年新低 $ETH
橙子研究院
·
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【70000 breached! BTC bulls are retreating to the 67000 defense line】
Previously mentioned in the analysis, after the big coin touched the 74000 pressure, operations should lean towards defense, with limited rebound expectations, and it is more reasonable to look for support by pulling back first. The market also aligns with our viewpoint, even breaking the short-term moving average support here at 70000, showing obvious weakness!
We continue to observe from the perspective of the triangular structure. Currently, the big coin is testing the strength of support at the upper edge of the triangle, and the position is around 67000. This remains an important defense line for the bulls.
If the daily closing entity falls back inside the triangle, then the last defense line can only hope for support at the lower edge, which is around 64000, essentially belonging to the existence of the bulls' life and death line.
If it effectively breaks down here, then the probability of a new low will greatly increase, and we can only look for rebound opportunities again around 58000-59000!
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #加密市场回调 $ETH
Previously mentioned in the analysis, after the big coin touched the 74000 pressure, operations should lean towards defense, with limited rebound expectations, and it is more reasonable to look for support by pulling back first. The market also aligns with our viewpoint, even breaking the short-term moving average support here at 70000, showing obvious weakness!
We continue to observe from the perspective of the triangular structure. Currently, the big coin is testing the strength of support at the upper edge of the triangle, and the position is around 67000. This remains an important defense line for the bulls.
If the daily closing entity falls back inside the triangle, then the last defense line can only hope for support at the lower edge, which is around 64000, essentially belonging to the existence of the bulls' life and death line.
If it effectively breaks down here, then the probability of a new low will greatly increase, and we can only look for rebound opportunities again around 58000-59000!
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #加密市场回调 $ETH
【70000 breached! BTC bulls are retreating to the 67000 defense line】
Previously mentioned in the analysis, after the big coin touched the 74000 pressure, operations should lean towards defense, with limited rebound expectations, and it is more reasonable to look for support by pulling back first. The market also aligns with our viewpoint, even breaking the short-term moving average support here at 70000, showing obvious weakness!
We continue to observe from the perspective of the triangular structure. Currently, the big coin is testing the strength of support at the upper edge of the triangle, and the position is around 67000. This remains an important defense line for the bulls.
If the daily closing entity falls back inside the triangle, then the last defense line can only hope for support at the lower edge, which is around 64000, essentially belonging to the existence of the bulls' life and death line.
If it effectively breaks down here, then the probability of a new low will greatly increase, and we can only look for rebound opportunities again around 58000-59000!
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #加密市场回调 $ETH
Previously mentioned in the analysis, after the big coin touched the 74000 pressure, operations should lean towards defense, with limited rebound expectations, and it is more reasonable to look for support by pulling back first. The market also aligns with our viewpoint, even breaking the short-term moving average support here at 70000, showing obvious weakness!
We continue to observe from the perspective of the triangular structure. Currently, the big coin is testing the strength of support at the upper edge of the triangle, and the position is around 67000. This remains an important defense line for the bulls.
If the daily closing entity falls back inside the triangle, then the last defense line can only hope for support at the lower edge, which is around 64000, essentially belonging to the existence of the bulls' life and death line.
If it effectively breaks down here, then the probability of a new low will greatly increase, and we can only look for rebound opportunities again around 58000-59000!
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #加密市场回调 $ETH
橙子研究院
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【CME Gap 79660-81210, the ultimate target of this rebound?】
Recently, Bitcoin has been severely affected by news from the Middle East over the past two days, showing volatile performance with several waves of false signals for both buying and selling, making short-term operations quite challenging. However, from a larger cycle perspective, things remain relatively clear, still following the script we previously projected, successfully breaking through and reaching the first resistance level of 74000, with accurate predictions.
As the market reaches this position, the focus should shift to defense. Firstly, we clarify that this is merely a rebound, and due to heavy resistance above, coupled with the constraints of the industry cycle and liquidity, the expectations for the rebound are also quite limited.
At least here at 74000, the market should experience some pressure and volatility. Emotional capital may push the price up to 75000, but ultimately, a pullback is more reasonable, with support around 70000.
Only under the effective support can there be a possibility for further upward movement; if it breaks down, it will fall back into a correction range.
From an optimistic perspective, the endpoint of the rebound continues to reference the CME gap 79660-81210, which is difficult to fill in one go. It will be very challenging to overcome this level; if it can be reached, it is entirely possible to make trades in segments!
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #ETH $ETH
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
Recently, Bitcoin has been severely affected by news from the Middle East over the past two days, showing volatile performance with several waves of false signals for both buying and selling, making short-term operations quite challenging. However, from a larger cycle perspective, things remain relatively clear, still following the script we previously projected, successfully breaking through and reaching the first resistance level of 74000, with accurate predictions.
As the market reaches this position, the focus should shift to defense. Firstly, we clarify that this is merely a rebound, and due to heavy resistance above, coupled with the constraints of the industry cycle and liquidity, the expectations for the rebound are also quite limited.
At least here at 74000, the market should experience some pressure and volatility. Emotional capital may push the price up to 75000, but ultimately, a pullback is more reasonable, with support around 70000.
Only under the effective support can there be a possibility for further upward movement; if it breaks down, it will fall back into a correction range.
From an optimistic perspective, the endpoint of the rebound continues to reference the CME gap 79660-81210, which is difficult to fill in one go. It will be very challenging to overcome this level; if it can be reached, it is entirely possible to make trades in segments!
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #ETH $ETH
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
【CME Gap 79660-81210, the ultimate target of this rebound?】
Recently, Bitcoin has been severely affected by news from the Middle East over the past two days, showing volatile performance with several waves of false signals for both buying and selling, making short-term operations quite challenging. However, from a larger cycle perspective, things remain relatively clear, still following the script we previously projected, successfully breaking through and reaching the first resistance level of 74000, with accurate predictions.
As the market reaches this position, the focus should shift to defense. Firstly, we clarify that this is merely a rebound, and due to heavy resistance above, coupled with the constraints of the industry cycle and liquidity, the expectations for the rebound are also quite limited.
At least here at 74000, the market should experience some pressure and volatility. Emotional capital may push the price up to 75000, but ultimately, a pullback is more reasonable, with support around 70000.
Only under the effective support can there be a possibility for further upward movement; if it breaks down, it will fall back into a correction range.
From an optimistic perspective, the endpoint of the rebound continues to reference the CME gap 79660-81210, which is difficult to fill in one go. It will be very challenging to overcome this level; if it can be reached, it is entirely possible to make trades in segments!
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #ETH $ETH
Recently, Bitcoin has been severely affected by news from the Middle East over the past two days, showing volatile performance with several waves of false signals for both buying and selling, making short-term operations quite challenging. However, from a larger cycle perspective, things remain relatively clear, still following the script we previously projected, successfully breaking through and reaching the first resistance level of 74000, with accurate predictions.
As the market reaches this position, the focus should shift to defense. Firstly, we clarify that this is merely a rebound, and due to heavy resistance above, coupled with the constraints of the industry cycle and liquidity, the expectations for the rebound are also quite limited.
At least here at 74000, the market should experience some pressure and volatility. Emotional capital may push the price up to 75000, but ultimately, a pullback is more reasonable, with support around 70000.
Only under the effective support can there be a possibility for further upward movement; if it breaks down, it will fall back into a correction range.
From an optimistic perspective, the endpoint of the rebound continues to reference the CME gap 79660-81210, which is difficult to fill in one go. It will be very challenging to overcome this level; if it can be reached, it is entirely possible to make trades in segments!
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #ETH $ETH
橙子研究院
·
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Bullish【Has the real bottom for BTC not been reached yet? A complete script of first 80,000 then 50,000, and finally rushing to 100,000】
Last night in the live broadcast, I already went through the main direction, here is a brief summary for everyone (the article also has more detailed logic).
The current core idea is:
First, look for BTC to rebound to the 75,000—80,000 USD range, where the main strategy is to reduce holdings; subsequently, there is a high probability that there will be another pullback, probing down to the 54,000—60,000 USD range to find the real stage bottom. Once the second bottom is completed, the market is more likely to start a large-scale upward trend, with the target having the chance to see above 100,000 USD again.
Therefore, the key to operation is not to “hold on” or “randomly catch the bottom,” but to—
reduce holdings to lock in profits when there is room for rebound, and then buy back shares during the low pullback, using volatility to lower the cost, which will amplify profits.
In simple terms: first survive through the waves, then wait for the main upward trend to profit.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#CPI数据来袭 $ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
Last night in the live broadcast, I already went through the main direction, here is a brief summary for everyone (the article also has more detailed logic).
The current core idea is:
First, look for BTC to rebound to the 75,000—80,000 USD range, where the main strategy is to reduce holdings; subsequently, there is a high probability that there will be another pullback, probing down to the 54,000—60,000 USD range to find the real stage bottom. Once the second bottom is completed, the market is more likely to start a large-scale upward trend, with the target having the chance to see above 100,000 USD again.
Therefore, the key to operation is not to “hold on” or “randomly catch the bottom,” but to—
reduce holdings to lock in profits when there is room for rebound, and then buy back shares during the low pullback, using volatility to lower the cost, which will amplify profits.
In simple terms: first survive through the waves, then wait for the main upward trend to profit.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#CPI数据来袭 $ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
【The big pie has taken off, just waiting for Ethereum to ignite】
From a structural perspective, the big pie has already completed its breakthrough first, and its trend is obviously stronger than Ethereum, belonging to the standard "leading stock first" state.
BTC has broken through the downward trend pressure with increased volume on the 1-hour level, and the bullish momentum is sufficient as the volume is released simultaneously. As long as it does not fall back below the breakthrough position, the overall rhythm remains strong, and the short-term strong characteristics are very evident.
Currently, Ethereum is still oscillating below the key resistance level, with 2150 being the core watershed. Once ETH breaks through 2150 with volume and confirms its position, the market sentiment will be completely ignited, and a rapid upward candle is very likely to occur.
After the breakthrough, the first target above to pay attention to is around 2310, where there is an overlap of previous dense trading zones and structural pressure.
In summary:
• BTC has already led the breakthrough
• ETH is just one step away
• Once Ethereum catches up, the large-scale emotional resonance increases the probability of a big upward candle
What is needed now is not to chase the rise, but to wait for confirmation.
The real acceleration often happens at the moment of confirmation after the breakthrough pullback.
#ETH $ETH
From a structural perspective, the big pie has already completed its breakthrough first, and its trend is obviously stronger than Ethereum, belonging to the standard "leading stock first" state.
BTC has broken through the downward trend pressure with increased volume on the 1-hour level, and the bullish momentum is sufficient as the volume is released simultaneously. As long as it does not fall back below the breakthrough position, the overall rhythm remains strong, and the short-term strong characteristics are very evident.
Currently, Ethereum is still oscillating below the key resistance level, with 2150 being the core watershed. Once ETH breaks through 2150 with volume and confirms its position, the market sentiment will be completely ignited, and a rapid upward candle is very likely to occur.
After the breakthrough, the first target above to pay attention to is around 2310, where there is an overlap of previous dense trading zones and structural pressure.
In summary:
• BTC has already led the breakthrough
• ETH is just one step away
• Once Ethereum catches up, the large-scale emotional resonance increases the probability of a big upward candle
What is needed now is not to chase the rise, but to wait for confirmation.
The real acceleration often happens at the moment of confirmation after the breakthrough pullback.
#ETH $ETH
橙子研究院
·
--
Bullish【Has the real bottom for BTC not been reached yet? A complete script of first 80,000 then 50,000, and finally rushing to 100,000】
Last night in the live broadcast, I already went through the main direction, here is a brief summary for everyone (the article also has more detailed logic).
The current core idea is:
First, look for BTC to rebound to the 75,000—80,000 USD range, where the main strategy is to reduce holdings; subsequently, there is a high probability that there will be another pullback, probing down to the 54,000—60,000 USD range to find the real stage bottom. Once the second bottom is completed, the market is more likely to start a large-scale upward trend, with the target having the chance to see above 100,000 USD again.
Therefore, the key to operation is not to “hold on” or “randomly catch the bottom,” but to—
reduce holdings to lock in profits when there is room for rebound, and then buy back shares during the low pullback, using volatility to lower the cost, which will amplify profits.
In simple terms: first survive through the waves, then wait for the main upward trend to profit.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#CPI数据来袭 $ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
Last night in the live broadcast, I already went through the main direction, here is a brief summary for everyone (the article also has more detailed logic).
The current core idea is:
First, look for BTC to rebound to the 75,000—80,000 USD range, where the main strategy is to reduce holdings; subsequently, there is a high probability that there will be another pullback, probing down to the 54,000—60,000 USD range to find the real stage bottom. Once the second bottom is completed, the market is more likely to start a large-scale upward trend, with the target having the chance to see above 100,000 USD again.
Therefore, the key to operation is not to “hold on” or “randomly catch the bottom,” but to—
reduce holdings to lock in profits when there is room for rebound, and then buy back shares during the low pullback, using volatility to lower the cost, which will amplify profits.
In simple terms: first survive through the waves, then wait for the main upward trend to profit.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#CPI数据来袭 $ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
OpenClaw: An AI tool reshaping the logic of content production in the cryptocurrency space
Recently, a name has been frequently mentioned in the cryptocurrency and AI circles—OpenClaw
Many people first encountered it when they saw someone using it to automatically generate tweets in a Telegram group; some used it to write project introductions in bulk; and others directly treated it as a '24/7 community operations assistant.' In just a few months, OpenClaw has transformed from a tool into a 'way of working.'
This is not an exaggeration, but rather a change that is happening in reality.
1. What is the essence of OpenClaw?
OpenClaw is not just a simple chatbot, but an AI workflow system optimized for content production and community operations.
Many people first encountered it when they saw someone using it to automatically generate tweets in a Telegram group; some used it to write project introductions in bulk; and others directly treated it as a '24/7 community operations assistant.' In just a few months, OpenClaw has transformed from a tool into a 'way of working.'
This is not an exaggeration, but rather a change that is happening in reality.
1. What is the essence of OpenClaw?
OpenClaw is not just a simple chatbot, but an AI workflow system optimized for content production and community operations.
【CME gap is near 80000, where will this round of rebound end?】
Previous analysis mentioned that Bitcoin would first test the support at the previous low of 62510. As a result, it dipped to a low of 63030, barely holding on, and did not show an effective breakdown scenario.
The fact that it did not drop is a strong signal.
Relying on the previous low support, bulls quickly organized a counterattack, pushing Bitcoin back up to around 70000.
Currently, the price is approaching the short-term resistance range of 69000—70000. From a 4-hour structure perspective, it has broken through the upper edge of the triangle, accompanied by increased volume, indicating a high probability of a successful breakout.
However, whether it can truly stabilize at 70000 still needs to be observed in the daily close.
In terms of expected rhythm, the more ideal scenario is:
First, retrace to the upper edge of the triangle near 67900, confirming support without dropping back into the triangle, then continue the upward attack.
The upper resistance is also relatively clear:
• The first target to focus on is the range of 73000—74000, which has been repeatedly mentioned, with considerable pressure;
• Further up is the CME gap of 79660—81210, where we will face very strong selling pressure.
Personally, I tend to believe that this gap area is difficult to fill in one go and is more likely to become a phase end for this round of rebound.
From a cyclical perspective, the monthly line has rarely shown five consecutive bearish candles, with a high probability of a bullish close in March.
Therefore, there is no need to panic excessively; patiently look for swing opportunities after a retracement, and remember not to chase highs or sell lows.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #美以袭击伊朗 $ETH #ETH
Previous analysis mentioned that Bitcoin would first test the support at the previous low of 62510. As a result, it dipped to a low of 63030, barely holding on, and did not show an effective breakdown scenario.
The fact that it did not drop is a strong signal.
Relying on the previous low support, bulls quickly organized a counterattack, pushing Bitcoin back up to around 70000.
Currently, the price is approaching the short-term resistance range of 69000—70000. From a 4-hour structure perspective, it has broken through the upper edge of the triangle, accompanied by increased volume, indicating a high probability of a successful breakout.
However, whether it can truly stabilize at 70000 still needs to be observed in the daily close.
In terms of expected rhythm, the more ideal scenario is:
First, retrace to the upper edge of the triangle near 67900, confirming support without dropping back into the triangle, then continue the upward attack.
The upper resistance is also relatively clear:
• The first target to focus on is the range of 73000—74000, which has been repeatedly mentioned, with considerable pressure;
• Further up is the CME gap of 79660—81210, where we will face very strong selling pressure.
Personally, I tend to believe that this gap area is difficult to fill in one go and is more likely to become a phase end for this round of rebound.
From a cyclical perspective, the monthly line has rarely shown five consecutive bearish candles, with a high probability of a bullish close in March.
Therefore, there is no need to panic excessively; patiently look for swing opportunities after a retracement, and remember not to chase highs or sell lows.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #美以袭击伊朗 $ETH #ETH
橙子研究院
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【Where is the bottom: 57000 or 54000? Multiple support levels are about to welcome a significant rebound】
After the four-hour divergence appeared, Bitcoin has not been able to organize an effective rebound, moving in a sideways manner instead. This is the most frustrating situation: it should rise but does not, and after exhausting the rebound momentum, it can only continue to seek support downward!
At present, after Bitcoin's price dipped below the previous small low, a small-level divergence has occurred. Therefore, the small support at 62500 can be regarded as a clear defensive position (with a stop-loss placed below 61600). The market will rely on this point for a rebound, with a focus on observing the closing position of the daily line at 8 o'clock. If it can recover above 65000, the rebound will continue, with the first resistance level looking around 70000.
If it cannot, then a new low after weak fluctuations here will be a high-probability event! At that time, we need to observe whether a second daily bottom divergence opportunity appears quickly after a new low. If it is a gradual decline, we will need to wait.
In terms of positions, the range of 57000-58000 and around 54000 are all possible positions, especially at 54000. As it is the Fibonacci 0.236 level of the 25-year bullish line entity position, the annual MA7, and the bottom edge of the rising channel from the previous bear market low of 15476, there will definitely be a significant rebound, which deserves close attention!
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
After the four-hour divergence appeared, Bitcoin has not been able to organize an effective rebound, moving in a sideways manner instead. This is the most frustrating situation: it should rise but does not, and after exhausting the rebound momentum, it can only continue to seek support downward!
At present, after Bitcoin's price dipped below the previous small low, a small-level divergence has occurred. Therefore, the small support at 62500 can be regarded as a clear defensive position (with a stop-loss placed below 61600). The market will rely on this point for a rebound, with a focus on observing the closing position of the daily line at 8 o'clock. If it can recover above 65000, the rebound will continue, with the first resistance level looking around 70000.
If it cannot, then a new low after weak fluctuations here will be a high-probability event! At that time, we need to observe whether a second daily bottom divergence opportunity appears quickly after a new low. If it is a gradual decline, we will need to wait.
In terms of positions, the range of 57000-58000 and around 54000 are all possible positions, especially at 54000. As it is the Fibonacci 0.236 level of the 25-year bullish line entity position, the annual MA7, and the bottom edge of the rising channel from the previous bear market low of 15476, there will definitely be a significant rebound, which deserves close attention!
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
【Geopolitical Conflict Escalation, BTC Enters Chaotic Mode! What Should We Do?】
Yesterday, the conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel escalated, significantly increasing geopolitical uncertainty. Market sentiment was impacted, leading to increased volatility, and the pace became very chaotic. To be honest, we are now in a stage where it's easy to get dizzy just by watching.
In this situation, there’s no rush to make judgments.
First, wait for the weekly close on Monday, then observe the feedback from the global financial markets on Monday, especially the performance of U.S. stocks, gold, and crude oil. Once the market has released the first wave of emotion, we can consolidate our thoughts and update our views in the evening; the signals will be clearer by then.
Currently, the market is being pulled back and forth, repeatedly battered, making it tough for both bulls and bears. The most suitable strategy during this phase is not to frequently fidget, but to stabilize positions.
The overall approach remains unchanged:
• If there is a rebound to the 75000—80000 range, follow the plan to scale in T, lock in profits, and reduce costs;
• If it first pulls back down, then maintain patience, hold onto your assets, and avoid panic selling.
In the current market, it's not about technique, but about patience.
Once the volatility is over, the trend will naturally reveal the answer.
#BTC $BTC #美以袭击伊朗 $ETH
Yesterday, the conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel escalated, significantly increasing geopolitical uncertainty. Market sentiment was impacted, leading to increased volatility, and the pace became very chaotic. To be honest, we are now in a stage where it's easy to get dizzy just by watching.
In this situation, there’s no rush to make judgments.
First, wait for the weekly close on Monday, then observe the feedback from the global financial markets on Monday, especially the performance of U.S. stocks, gold, and crude oil. Once the market has released the first wave of emotion, we can consolidate our thoughts and update our views in the evening; the signals will be clearer by then.
Currently, the market is being pulled back and forth, repeatedly battered, making it tough for both bulls and bears. The most suitable strategy during this phase is not to frequently fidget, but to stabilize positions.
The overall approach remains unchanged:
• If there is a rebound to the 75000—80000 range, follow the plan to scale in T, lock in profits, and reduce costs;
• If it first pulls back down, then maintain patience, hold onto your assets, and avoid panic selling.
In the current market, it's not about technique, but about patience.
Once the volatility is over, the trend will naturally reveal the answer.
#BTC $BTC #美以袭击伊朗 $ETH
橙子研究院
·
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Bullish【BTC 4-hour continues to rise 75000-80000】
From a structural perspective, the market is still treated with a rebound mindset, but this wave of rebound is unlikely to be smooth sailing; it is more likely to repeatedly pull back and sift through chips within the range.
The 4-hour level has formed a phased repair structure, and the short-term rebound rhythm is still continuing, with the first target still focusing on the pressure area around 78000. However, it can be seen from the chart that there is a clear oscillation range and previous high resistance above, making it easy to experience false breaks and pullbacks during the rebound process.
It is important to note that the larger daily structure has not yet fully improved, and the trend has not truly reversed. The current rebound is more of a repair after a decline, rather than the start of a main upward wave.
Therefore, the 60000 area is not currently considered an absolute low point; if the subsequent volume is insufficient or the structure is damaged, there remains the possibility of a retest confirmation.
Overall rhythm:
Short-term looks for a rebound, medium-term guards against pullbacks, structurally leaning towards oscillation repair
#BTC $BTC #美国伊朗对峙 $ETH
From a structural perspective, the market is still treated with a rebound mindset, but this wave of rebound is unlikely to be smooth sailing; it is more likely to repeatedly pull back and sift through chips within the range.
The 4-hour level has formed a phased repair structure, and the short-term rebound rhythm is still continuing, with the first target still focusing on the pressure area around 78000. However, it can be seen from the chart that there is a clear oscillation range and previous high resistance above, making it easy to experience false breaks and pullbacks during the rebound process.
It is important to note that the larger daily structure has not yet fully improved, and the trend has not truly reversed. The current rebound is more of a repair after a decline, rather than the start of a main upward wave.
Therefore, the 60000 area is not currently considered an absolute low point; if the subsequent volume is insufficient or the structure is damaged, there remains the possibility of a retest confirmation.
Overall rhythm:
Short-term looks for a rebound, medium-term guards against pullbacks, structurally leaning towards oscillation repair
#BTC $BTC #美国伊朗对峙 $ETH
【The occurrence of five consecutive monthly declines is rare, is Bitcoin brewing a major rebound?】
Let’s briefly discuss the current market situation.
Bitcoin has clearly faced pressure and dropped after hitting the resistance level around 70,000, which was originally a normal technical pullback. However, influenced by the sudden developments in Iran, the sentiment has been amplified, leading to a small-scale waterfall decline in the market, with a short-term choice to test support downwards.
From a structural perspective, it is highly likely that it will test the previous low support around 62,510. However, I personally tend to be cautious, even slightly pessimistic, as this position may not hold completely. If there is an effective daily closing below this level, the defensive significance of the 60,000 threshold will also be significantly weakened. The market may likely create a quick spike to a new low, reaching the 58,000–59,000 area to find stronger support, and then reorganize for another rebound structure.
From a cyclical perspective, tomorrow will see the monthly closing. If it closes lower, it will form five consecutive monthly declines, which is not common in history. At the same time, multiple momentum indicators have already entered a clearly oversold range, and both the sentiment and technical aspects are in an extremely compressed state.
Therefore, the short-term structure remains weak, with a higher probability of testing support downwards; however, from a mid-term perspective, the downward space has gradually converged, and the momentum for further declines is diminishing.
In other words—
February may be the final stage of emotional release,
The probability of a phase rebound or even a retaliatory recovery in March is increasing.
The key words for the current stage are only two:
Hold on for a rise + dawn is coming soon
Real opportunities often arise when sentiment is at its worst
#BTC $BTC #美以袭击伊朗 $ETH
Let’s briefly discuss the current market situation.
Bitcoin has clearly faced pressure and dropped after hitting the resistance level around 70,000, which was originally a normal technical pullback. However, influenced by the sudden developments in Iran, the sentiment has been amplified, leading to a small-scale waterfall decline in the market, with a short-term choice to test support downwards.
From a structural perspective, it is highly likely that it will test the previous low support around 62,510. However, I personally tend to be cautious, even slightly pessimistic, as this position may not hold completely. If there is an effective daily closing below this level, the defensive significance of the 60,000 threshold will also be significantly weakened. The market may likely create a quick spike to a new low, reaching the 58,000–59,000 area to find stronger support, and then reorganize for another rebound structure.
From a cyclical perspective, tomorrow will see the monthly closing. If it closes lower, it will form five consecutive monthly declines, which is not common in history. At the same time, multiple momentum indicators have already entered a clearly oversold range, and both the sentiment and technical aspects are in an extremely compressed state.
Therefore, the short-term structure remains weak, with a higher probability of testing support downwards; however, from a mid-term perspective, the downward space has gradually converged, and the momentum for further declines is diminishing.
In other words—
February may be the final stage of emotional release,
The probability of a phase rebound or even a retaliatory recovery in March is increasing.
The key words for the current stage are only two:
Hold on for a rise + dawn is coming soon
Real opportunities often arise when sentiment is at its worst
#BTC $BTC #美以袭击伊朗 $ETH
橙子研究院
·
--
【Where is the bottom: 57000 or 54000? Multiple support levels are about to welcome a significant rebound】
After the four-hour divergence appeared, Bitcoin has not been able to organize an effective rebound, moving in a sideways manner instead. This is the most frustrating situation: it should rise but does not, and after exhausting the rebound momentum, it can only continue to seek support downward!
At present, after Bitcoin's price dipped below the previous small low, a small-level divergence has occurred. Therefore, the small support at 62500 can be regarded as a clear defensive position (with a stop-loss placed below 61600). The market will rely on this point for a rebound, with a focus on observing the closing position of the daily line at 8 o'clock. If it can recover above 65000, the rebound will continue, with the first resistance level looking around 70000.
If it cannot, then a new low after weak fluctuations here will be a high-probability event! At that time, we need to observe whether a second daily bottom divergence opportunity appears quickly after a new low. If it is a gradual decline, we will need to wait.
In terms of positions, the range of 57000-58000 and around 54000 are all possible positions, especially at 54000. As it is the Fibonacci 0.236 level of the 25-year bullish line entity position, the annual MA7, and the bottom edge of the rising channel from the previous bear market low of 15476, there will definitely be a significant rebound, which deserves close attention!
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
After the four-hour divergence appeared, Bitcoin has not been able to organize an effective rebound, moving in a sideways manner instead. This is the most frustrating situation: it should rise but does not, and after exhausting the rebound momentum, it can only continue to seek support downward!
At present, after Bitcoin's price dipped below the previous small low, a small-level divergence has occurred. Therefore, the small support at 62500 can be regarded as a clear defensive position (with a stop-loss placed below 61600). The market will rely on this point for a rebound, with a focus on observing the closing position of the daily line at 8 o'clock. If it can recover above 65000, the rebound will continue, with the first resistance level looking around 70000.
If it cannot, then a new low after weak fluctuations here will be a high-probability event! At that time, we need to observe whether a second daily bottom divergence opportunity appears quickly after a new low. If it is a gradual decline, we will need to wait.
In terms of positions, the range of 57000-58000 and around 54000 are all possible positions, especially at 54000. As it is the Fibonacci 0.236 level of the 25-year bullish line entity position, the annual MA7, and the bottom edge of the rising channel from the previous bear market low of 15476, there will definitely be a significant rebound, which deserves close attention!
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
【BTC 4-hour continues to rise 75000-80000】
From a structural perspective, the market is still treated with a rebound mindset, but this wave of rebound is unlikely to be smooth sailing; it is more likely to repeatedly pull back and sift through chips within the range.
The 4-hour level has formed a phased repair structure, and the short-term rebound rhythm is still continuing, with the first target still focusing on the pressure area around 78000. However, it can be seen from the chart that there is a clear oscillation range and previous high resistance above, making it easy to experience false breaks and pullbacks during the rebound process.
It is important to note that the larger daily structure has not yet fully improved, and the trend has not truly reversed. The current rebound is more of a repair after a decline, rather than the start of a main upward wave.
Therefore, the 60000 area is not currently considered an absolute low point; if the subsequent volume is insufficient or the structure is damaged, there remains the possibility of a retest confirmation.
Overall rhythm:
Short-term looks for a rebound, medium-term guards against pullbacks, structurally leaning towards oscillation repair
#BTC $BTC #美国伊朗对峙 $ETH
From a structural perspective, the market is still treated with a rebound mindset, but this wave of rebound is unlikely to be smooth sailing; it is more likely to repeatedly pull back and sift through chips within the range.
The 4-hour level has formed a phased repair structure, and the short-term rebound rhythm is still continuing, with the first target still focusing on the pressure area around 78000. However, it can be seen from the chart that there is a clear oscillation range and previous high resistance above, making it easy to experience false breaks and pullbacks during the rebound process.
It is important to note that the larger daily structure has not yet fully improved, and the trend has not truly reversed. The current rebound is more of a repair after a decline, rather than the start of a main upward wave.
Therefore, the 60000 area is not currently considered an absolute low point; if the subsequent volume is insufficient or the structure is damaged, there remains the possibility of a retest confirmation.
Overall rhythm:
Short-term looks for a rebound, medium-term guards against pullbacks, structurally leaning towards oscillation repair
#BTC $BTC #美国伊朗对峙 $ETH
橙子研究院
·
--
Bullish【Has the real bottom for BTC not been reached yet? A complete script of first 80,000 then 50,000, and finally rushing to 100,000】
Last night in the live broadcast, I already went through the main direction, here is a brief summary for everyone (the article also has more detailed logic).
The current core idea is:
First, look for BTC to rebound to the 75,000—80,000 USD range, where the main strategy is to reduce holdings; subsequently, there is a high probability that there will be another pullback, probing down to the 54,000—60,000 USD range to find the real stage bottom. Once the second bottom is completed, the market is more likely to start a large-scale upward trend, with the target having the chance to see above 100,000 USD again.
Therefore, the key to operation is not to “hold on” or “randomly catch the bottom,” but to—
reduce holdings to lock in profits when there is room for rebound, and then buy back shares during the low pullback, using volatility to lower the cost, which will amplify profits.
In simple terms: first survive through the waves, then wait for the main upward trend to profit.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#CPI数据来袭 $ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
Last night in the live broadcast, I already went through the main direction, here is a brief summary for everyone (the article also has more detailed logic).
The current core idea is:
First, look for BTC to rebound to the 75,000—80,000 USD range, where the main strategy is to reduce holdings; subsequently, there is a high probability that there will be another pullback, probing down to the 54,000—60,000 USD range to find the real stage bottom. Once the second bottom is completed, the market is more likely to start a large-scale upward trend, with the target having the chance to see above 100,000 USD again.
Therefore, the key to operation is not to “hold on” or “randomly catch the bottom,” but to—
reduce holdings to lock in profits when there is room for rebound, and then buy back shares during the low pullback, using volatility to lower the cost, which will amplify profits.
In simple terms: first survive through the waves, then wait for the main upward trend to profit.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#CPI数据来袭 $ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
【If the daily line closes steadily above 95K, the upward space may be completely opened】
Currently, Bitcoin is at the 65000 USD mark. If the daily line can close above 65000 tomorrow, the bullish outlook will be maintained.
Combining yesterday's viewpoint, the market is currently likely in a stage of upward selection after a consolidation. As long as key support is not effectively broken, the overall structure remains bullish. In the short term, the preference is to look for pullback opportunities rather than blindly chasing shorts, and patiently wait for the market to further open up the upper space.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC $NVDAon
#比特币2026年价格预测 $ETH
Currently, Bitcoin is at the 65000 USD mark. If the daily line can close above 65000 tomorrow, the bullish outlook will be maintained.
Combining yesterday's viewpoint, the market is currently likely in a stage of upward selection after a consolidation. As long as key support is not effectively broken, the overall structure remains bullish. In the short term, the preference is to look for pullback opportunities rather than blindly chasing shorts, and patiently wait for the market to further open up the upper space.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC $NVDAon
#比特币2026年价格预测 $ETH
橙子研究院
·
--
【Where is the bottom: 57000 or 54000? Multiple support levels are about to welcome a significant rebound】
After the four-hour divergence appeared, Bitcoin has not been able to organize an effective rebound, moving in a sideways manner instead. This is the most frustrating situation: it should rise but does not, and after exhausting the rebound momentum, it can only continue to seek support downward!
At present, after Bitcoin's price dipped below the previous small low, a small-level divergence has occurred. Therefore, the small support at 62500 can be regarded as a clear defensive position (with a stop-loss placed below 61600). The market will rely on this point for a rebound, with a focus on observing the closing position of the daily line at 8 o'clock. If it can recover above 65000, the rebound will continue, with the first resistance level looking around 70000.
If it cannot, then a new low after weak fluctuations here will be a high-probability event! At that time, we need to observe whether a second daily bottom divergence opportunity appears quickly after a new low. If it is a gradual decline, we will need to wait.
In terms of positions, the range of 57000-58000 and around 54000 are all possible positions, especially at 54000. As it is the Fibonacci 0.236 level of the 25-year bullish line entity position, the annual MA7, and the bottom edge of the rising channel from the previous bear market low of 15476, there will definitely be a significant rebound, which deserves close attention!
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
After the four-hour divergence appeared, Bitcoin has not been able to organize an effective rebound, moving in a sideways manner instead. This is the most frustrating situation: it should rise but does not, and after exhausting the rebound momentum, it can only continue to seek support downward!
At present, after Bitcoin's price dipped below the previous small low, a small-level divergence has occurred. Therefore, the small support at 62500 can be regarded as a clear defensive position (with a stop-loss placed below 61600). The market will rely on this point for a rebound, with a focus on observing the closing position of the daily line at 8 o'clock. If it can recover above 65000, the rebound will continue, with the first resistance level looking around 70000.
If it cannot, then a new low after weak fluctuations here will be a high-probability event! At that time, we need to observe whether a second daily bottom divergence opportunity appears quickly after a new low. If it is a gradual decline, we will need to wait.
In terms of positions, the range of 57000-58000 and around 54000 are all possible positions, especially at 54000. As it is the Fibonacci 0.236 level of the 25-year bullish line entity position, the annual MA7, and the bottom edge of the rising channel from the previous bear market low of 15476, there will definitely be a significant rebound, which deserves close attention!
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
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