Last night we hit 64363, today we're back down to 63800, and it ain't over yet.
In the last piece, I mentioned 63900 as resistance, and sure enough, we blasted through to 64363 last night. Today, we've given it all back, stuck at 63800.
We're seeing signs of a 1H head and shoulders pattern — left shoulder at 63930, head at 64363, right shoulder at 63828, and neckline at 63021. Whether this head and shoulders plays out depends on if the neckline breaks; it hasn't yet, and the bulls are still holding strong.
The bullish scenario:
Today, we saw a net inflow of 230 million bucks in big orders, and the big players are propping up the price. Above 63970, there are five equal height short stop-loss points stacked up. If we break through with volume, we could see a short squeeze pushing us straight to 64400, and then on to 65000.
The bearish scenario:
Above 63800, there are 16700 BTC sell orders pressing down, SAR hasn’t broken through, we’re overbought on the 1H, and both the 15M and 4H charts show RSI divergence. The shorts have already taken a beating; where’s the ammo for the next attack? Down at 63100, there’s still 9177 million in long stop-losses waiting, and it’s likely the big players are going to take that meal.
My take:
Down first, then up. We’ll likely have a trip around 63100, taking out the long stop-losses before we check out the upside. If we see a strong volume long lower wick at 63100 and then reclaim it, that’ll be the real entry point, with a bounce target starting at 64400.
Chasing longs before we get a stop signal at 63100 is risky.
Next week is FOMC, and US stocks just dropped 2% today; fear-greed index at 13, macro factors aren’t helping the bulls. The variable is in the news, and technical pressures are just that — pressures.
For those trapped on the big stage, come on over.
In the last piece, I mentioned 63900 as resistance, and sure enough, we blasted through to 64363 last night. Today, we've given it all back, stuck at 63800.
We're seeing signs of a 1H head and shoulders pattern — left shoulder at 63930, head at 64363, right shoulder at 63828, and neckline at 63021. Whether this head and shoulders plays out depends on if the neckline breaks; it hasn't yet, and the bulls are still holding strong.
The bullish scenario:
Today, we saw a net inflow of 230 million bucks in big orders, and the big players are propping up the price. Above 63970, there are five equal height short stop-loss points stacked up. If we break through with volume, we could see a short squeeze pushing us straight to 64400, and then on to 65000.
The bearish scenario:
Above 63800, there are 16700 BTC sell orders pressing down, SAR hasn’t broken through, we’re overbought on the 1H, and both the 15M and 4H charts show RSI divergence. The shorts have already taken a beating; where’s the ammo for the next attack? Down at 63100, there’s still 9177 million in long stop-losses waiting, and it’s likely the big players are going to take that meal.
My take:
Down first, then up. We’ll likely have a trip around 63100, taking out the long stop-losses before we check out the upside. If we see a strong volume long lower wick at 63100 and then reclaim it, that’ll be the real entry point, with a bounce target starting at 64400.
Chasing longs before we get a stop signal at 63100 is risky.
Next week is FOMC, and US stocks just dropped 2% today; fear-greed index at 13, macro factors aren’t helping the bulls. The variable is in the news, and technical pressures are just that — pressures.
For those trapped on the big stage, come on over.