苏八戒
币安人生 Holder
Frequent Trader
4.3 Years
公众号: 007加密指南 ｜专注宏观地缘政治经济｜人性交易心理分析｜交易就是人性的放大器，行情来了别慌，方向错了别乱｜八折手续费邀请码:29088100
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Federal Reserve interest rate cut + balance sheet expansion, cautious in the short term, optimistic in the long term.
Last night, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, bringing the rate down to 3.5-3.75. An invisible balance sheet expansion was also launched simultaneously, and these two market movements were actually priced in earlier. Powell's post-meeting speech is the focus of liquidity in December. After listening to his speech, to summarize simply: the short term is very cautious, while the long term is very optimistic.
Why is the short term cautious? Jerome Powell said that the government-reported addition of 40,000 jobs may actually need to be revised down to 60,000, meaning there will be a net reduction of another 20,000. In this situation, not lowering interest rates is not feasible; it is to prevent a passive interest rate cut due to an economic crash.
Why is the short term cautious? Jerome Powell said that the government-reported addition of 40,000 jobs may actually need to be revised down to 60,000, meaning there will be a net reduction of another 20,000. In this situation, not lowering interest rates is not feasible; it is to prevent a passive interest rate cut due to an economic crash.
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However, making excessive predictions is a judgment on the market, and no scholar can completely clarify it.
Do you really understand this time's Japanese interest rate hike and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut?
Japan is continuously raising interest rates in a dovish manner, while the Federal Reserve is continuously lowering rates in a hawkish manner. Japan said that they will likely raise interest rates around the 18th or 19th of December, which will lead to a collapse in all global stock and bond markets. Have you heard this viewpoint? After Japan raises interest rates, all assets involved in carry trades will be unwound, and a large amount of capital will flow back to Japan, resulting in a liquidity crisis.
I assert clearly that this will not happen. Many people say that the logic behind the collapse of global capital markets after a yen interest rate hike is due to the low-interest and low-rate policies of Abenomics, which have provided ample liquidity; globally, liquidity comes from two sources: the US dollar and the yen.
I assert clearly that this will not happen. Many people say that the logic behind the collapse of global capital markets after a yen interest rate hike is due to the low-interest and low-rate policies of Abenomics, which have provided ample liquidity; globally, liquidity comes from two sources: the US dollar and the yen.
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Do you really understand this time's Japanese interest rate hike and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut?
Japan is continuously raising interest rates in a dovish manner, while the Federal Reserve is continuously lowering rates in a hawkish manner. Japan said that they will likely raise interest rates around the 18th or 19th of December, which will lead to a collapse in all global stock and bond markets. Have you heard this viewpoint? After Japan raises interest rates, all assets involved in carry trades will be unwound, and a large amount of capital will flow back to Japan, resulting in a liquidity crisis.
I assert clearly that this will not happen. Many people say that the logic behind the collapse of global capital markets after a yen interest rate hike is due to the low-interest and low-rate policies of Abenomics, which have provided ample liquidity; globally, liquidity comes from two sources: the US dollar and the yen.
I assert clearly that this will not happen. Many people say that the logic behind the collapse of global capital markets after a yen interest rate hike is due to the low-interest and low-rate policies of Abenomics, which have provided ample liquidity; globally, liquidity comes from two sources: the US dollar and the yen.
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Yes, it is called teaching, but in reality, it is also to expand oneself, because one no longer has the ability to explore new markets, so they adopt a multi-level marketing approach: person to person, pulling others in, and ultimately, there are more agents than users, more practitioners than participants. The core of the commission should be what you can provide, and the platform is now also focused on performance, allowing anyone to become an agent and receive commissions.
币圈科长
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【Is the commission easy to make? 90% of newcomers can't last more than 3 months!】
Some bloggers are again deceiving newcomers into becoming referrers to help them recruit people, claiming that you can earn 7000U in about 10 days. To be honest, this commission income is purely based on luck in meeting big clients. 99.9% of newcomers doing commissions are unlikely to have this income.
The current commissions are hard to make; without good service, you simply cannot attract people, and the elimination rate of newcomers in the crypto circle is too high. Generally, they can only survive for three months. You need to ensure a continuous output of excellent content, and you also need to have real trading skills to help newcomers survive. Only then can it last long, so if you want to succeed, you must be strong yourself and not hope for shortcuts!
For those who lack real skills and are unwilling to work hard, I advise you not to expect any get-rich-quick schemes..#返佣
Some bloggers are again deceiving newcomers into becoming referrers to help them recruit people, claiming that you can earn 7000U in about 10 days. To be honest, this commission income is purely based on luck in meeting big clients. 99.9% of newcomers doing commissions are unlikely to have this income.
The current commissions are hard to make; without good service, you simply cannot attract people, and the elimination rate of newcomers in the crypto circle is too high. Generally, they can only survive for three months. You need to ensure a continuous output of excellent content, and you also need to have real trading skills to help newcomers survive. Only then can it last long, so if you want to succeed, you must be strong yourself and not hope for shortcuts!
For those who lack real skills and are unwilling to work hard, I advise you not to expect any get-rich-quick schemes..#返佣
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Once the real trading starts, everyone will die
五味子
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Has anyone noticed that this time at the Binance 100 Awards Ceremony, the Chinese community is 99% male, with very few women? What does this indicate? On X, there are women showing skin, posing suggestively, and they are not appealing in the square. The square is filled with those who want to make money, and on X, all the comments are from old perverts. $BTC
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$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
#比特币VS代币化黄金 Some friends may ask: Why is Japan's interest rate hike an important matter? It's actually related to the yen being a lifeblood package in the global market. Japan has maintained low interest rates for many years, but the interest rates in some major markets in Europe and America are still relatively high, leading to a significant interest rate differential, which creates an arbitrage opportunity. Many funds have gone to Japan to borrow money and invest worldwide.
However, now with Japan's interest rates continuously rising while the United States is in a rate-cutting cycle, the interest rate differential between the two is narrowing. For example, if the U.S. lowers rates by 25 basis points in December and Japan raises rates by 25 basis points, the interest rate differential shrinks by 50 basis points, not to mention the existing exchange rate fluctuations.
Now not only will new arbitrage funds decrease, but the arbitrage funds that have already borrowed yen for investment may also flow back to Japan, thus reducing market liquidity. Last year, Japan's interest rate hike also caused short-term drastic fluctuations in the market. However, regardless of how things unfold, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, stopping balance sheet reduction, and the potential for balance sheet expansion can all increase liquidity.
So, there's no need to panic just yet, but it is still important to keep an eye on the situation regarding Japan's interest rate hikes.
$ETH
$SOL
#比特币VS代币化黄金 Some friends may ask: Why is Japan's interest rate hike an important matter? It's actually related to the yen being a lifeblood package in the global market. Japan has maintained low interest rates for many years, but the interest rates in some major markets in Europe and America are still relatively high, leading to a significant interest rate differential, which creates an arbitrage opportunity. Many funds have gone to Japan to borrow money and invest worldwide.
However, now with Japan's interest rates continuously rising while the United States is in a rate-cutting cycle, the interest rate differential between the two is narrowing. For example, if the U.S. lowers rates by 25 basis points in December and Japan raises rates by 25 basis points, the interest rate differential shrinks by 50 basis points, not to mention the existing exchange rate fluctuations.
Now not only will new arbitrage funds decrease, but the arbitrage funds that have already borrowed yen for investment may also flow back to Japan, thus reducing market liquidity. Last year, Japan's interest rate hike also caused short-term drastic fluctuations in the market. However, regardless of how things unfold, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, stopping balance sheet reduction, and the potential for balance sheet expansion can all increase liquidity.
So, there's no need to panic just yet, but it is still important to keep an eye on the situation regarding Japan's interest rate hikes.
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2025 Latest Virtual Currency Policy Interpretation: Is Personal Virtual Currency Trading Still Legal?
This year, the most important policy interpretation regarding cryptocurrency trading has arrived.
The meeting on the coordination mechanism for combating virtual currency trading speculation was convened
The People's Bank of China and the China Internet Finance Association issued a notice on November 29, 2025, at 20:30, stating that on November 28, 2025, the People's Bank of China held a coordination mechanism meeting to combat virtual currency trading speculation. Officials from the Ministry of Public Security, the Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission, the Central Financial Office, the Supreme People's Court, the Supreme People's Procuratorate, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Justice, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange attended the meeting.
The meeting on the coordination mechanism for combating virtual currency trading speculation was convened
The People's Bank of China and the China Internet Finance Association issued a notice on November 29, 2025, at 20:30, stating that on November 28, 2025, the People's Bank of China held a coordination mechanism meeting to combat virtual currency trading speculation. Officials from the Ministry of Public Security, the Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission, the Central Financial Office, the Supreme People's Court, the Supreme People's Procuratorate, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Justice, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange attended the meeting.
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Awesome
Thank you @币圈小迷妹哟 and @苏八戒 for not having to set up stalls today #事件合约
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From the Federal Reserve's Beige Book: The U.S. Economy in Deep Recession, Growth Supported Solely by AI
Today, leveraging the economic Beige Book released by the Federal Reserve, let’s discuss the current state of the U.S. economy. First, a reminder that U.S. stocks will not be closed all day on Thursday, but will be open for half a day; please pay attention to relevant trading arrangements.
Let’s look at a set of key data: The U.S. PMI data for November released on Wednesday was only 36.3, marking a new low since May 2024. This figure indicates that the U.S. manufacturing sector is experiencing a severe recession, with economic activity significantly contracting, putting considerable pressure on employment, orders, supply chains, and business confidence, among other areas. Compared to the downturn in PMI below 50 during the 2008 crisis, the value of 36.3 is even more pessimistic, and further negative signals of economic contraction may emerge.
Focusing again on the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, there are five key points worth noting. First, the U.S. labor market has shown little improvement over the past six weeks, with job seekers not making significant progress; second, inflation levels remain high, driven not solely by U.S. tariff policies; third, the consumer market is showing divergence, with ordinary consumer spending decreasing, but affluent groups still supporting strong sales in the high-end retail market; fourth, the impact of government shutdowns extends far beyond the federal employee group, affecting the overall economy more broadly; fifth, the artificial intelligence sector is emerging, driving a surge in investments in related fields, but also leading to hiring contractions in some industries — to put it bluntly, the current U.S. economy relies entirely on the AI sector for support, while other sectors are performing poorly. $ETH
$SOL
$BTC
Today, leveraging the economic Beige Book released by the Federal Reserve, let’s discuss the current state of the U.S. economy. First, a reminder that U.S. stocks will not be closed all day on Thursday, but will be open for half a day; please pay attention to relevant trading arrangements.
Let’s look at a set of key data: The U.S. PMI data for November released on Wednesday was only 36.3, marking a new low since May 2024. This figure indicates that the U.S. manufacturing sector is experiencing a severe recession, with economic activity significantly contracting, putting considerable pressure on employment, orders, supply chains, and business confidence, among other areas. Compared to the downturn in PMI below 50 during the 2008 crisis, the value of 36.3 is even more pessimistic, and further negative signals of economic contraction may emerge.
Focusing again on the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, there are five key points worth noting. First, the U.S. labor market has shown little improvement over the past six weeks, with job seekers not making significant progress; second, inflation levels remain high, driven not solely by U.S. tariff policies; third, the consumer market is showing divergence, with ordinary consumer spending decreasing, but affluent groups still supporting strong sales in the high-end retail market; fourth, the impact of government shutdowns extends far beyond the federal employee group, affecting the overall economy more broadly; fifth, the artificial intelligence sector is emerging, driving a surge in investments in related fields, but also leading to hiring contractions in some industries — to put it bluntly, the current U.S. economy relies entirely on the AI sector for support, while other sectors are performing poorly. $ETH
$SOL
$BTC
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The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates, and you might think that they are flooding the market, but in fact, what they have been doing this year is crazy balance sheet reduction and draining liquidity. Europe and Japan are also synchronously carrying out the same operations. It's like a math problem we did as kids, where one side has a faucet running into a pool, while the other side has a more powerful pump draining the water. In the end, the dollars, euros, and yen from around the world will quietly be drained away.
Why are they doing this? Because they want to first create a dollar shortage globally, then trigger a crisis in emerging markets, and finally, they can cheaply acquire core assets. The script of the 1997 Asian financial crisis is being replayed; when every country lacks dollars, the capital predators of Wall Street will return with their dollars, purchasing quality assets at bargain prices.
What’s even scarier is that this is not just a solo performance by the United States, but rather a joint effort between the US, Europe, and Japan to orchestrate a massive transfer of wealth. The surge in gold prices this year is the most direct evidence of this. Central banks around the world are frantically hoarding gold. When you still think this has nothing to do with you, wealth is already being redistributed without you even realizing it. And this is just the beginning.
$XRP
$ETH
Why are they doing this? Because they want to first create a dollar shortage globally, then trigger a crisis in emerging markets, and finally, they can cheaply acquire core assets. The script of the 1997 Asian financial crisis is being replayed; when every country lacks dollars, the capital predators of Wall Street will return with their dollars, purchasing quality assets at bargain prices.
What’s even scarier is that this is not just a solo performance by the United States, but rather a joint effort between the US, Europe, and Japan to orchestrate a massive transfer of wealth. The surge in gold prices this year is the most direct evidence of this. Central banks around the world are frantically hoarding gold. When you still think this has nothing to do with you, wealth is already being redistributed without you even realizing it. And this is just the beginning.
$XRP
$ETH
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The three major troubles in life
1. Can't let go: unable to let go, forget, and give up. It's all due to heavy attachments. Unable to pass this barrier of oneself.
2. Can't see through: those involved are confused. Unable to see through people's hearts, human nature, and the ways of the world. Just because one is in the midst of it.
3. Can't do well: can't take care of the family, can't do well at work, can't bear the burden of a career.
Some things are just good to listen to; how can you know the truth? $BTC
$ETH
1. Can't let go: unable to let go, forget, and give up. It's all due to heavy attachments. Unable to pass this barrier of oneself.
2. Can't see through: those involved are confused. Unable to see through people's hearts, human nature, and the ways of the world. Just because one is in the midst of it.
3. Can't do well: can't take care of the family, can't do well at work, can't bear the burden of a career.
Some things are just good to listen to; how can you know the truth? $BTC
$ETH
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The essence of a person is actually that of a gambler; not gambling is actually betting on one's own loss #加密市场反弹 $BTC
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The concubine has a floating loss of 7 warehouses, the pancake has a floating loss of 6 warehouses, this trip has gone too far #加密市场回调 $ETH $SOL $BTC #美SEC推动加密创新监管
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Staying ahead of the market
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Sold for cash, bottom-fished $BTC $ETH
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The appetite of a little fan: This bowl of noodles can't fit on the screen
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It should be said to focus more on defensive positions, first looking at the vicinity of 89 and 94, then rebounding and consolidating, waiting for the market to choose a direction, only then will we know if there is still more, because near 80,000 there can still be continued market consolidation #美国结束政府停摆 $BTC
$ETH
$ETH
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Trading is gambling, betting on what you don't know, betting on what you dare not believe. You know where to buy low and where to short; don't the major players and institutions know? Follow the trend; what you think is merely what you think. The logic of the market movements these days: if the king of hell wants him to fall at 3 a.m., he won't hold out until 5 a.m. Tomorrow, I bet on a small rebound. What is the direction? The direction is to take the profit and run; the pattern is doomed.
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I don't know if the KOL's post in the square was deleted yesterday?
🎙️ 百亿学宫:KOL主播孵化、解币、戒爆、币圈的稷下学宫柏拉图学院黄埔保定军校……
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