Dear fans and friends, have you all been able to ride the recent Bitcoin roller coaster calmly? Today, I want to share my heartfelt thoughts on the current market situation.
Recently, Bitcoin's performance has indeed left many people startled. It has pulled back nearly 40% from its peak, even dipping to around $74,500, setting a new low for 2026. Although there seems to be a bit of a rebound in the past few days, with nearly $700 million rushing into #ETF on Monday, I suggest everyone not to rush to call a bull market return; this rebound is very likely to be a dead cat bounce designed to lure in more investors.
Why do I say this? We retail investors need to be clear about a few harsh realities:
1. Institutional giants are pulling back their ladders.
Don't be fooled by the inflow on Monday; throughout January, institutions ran over $1.6 billion through #ETF , but this has been the worst month since #ETF was listed. If the price can't stabilize above the institutions' cost line (around $84,000), this rebound is likely just a correction, not a trend reversal.
2. The macro liquidity faucet has been tightened.
Recently, the Federal Reserve has undergone a leadership change, with the new big shot Kevin Warsh leaning hawkishly, the dollar is strengthening, and everyone is dumping risk assets. In my view, the current crisis is due to the exhaustion of dollar liquidity, with Bitcoin and tech stocks both declining simultaneously, indicating that this is not just a problem within the crypto circle; it’s a global cash shortage.
If $75,000 cannot hold, where will we look? Many analysts are eyeing the 200-week moving average (200WMA), which is currently around $57,000 to $58,000. Historical experience tells us that this line is the true 'macro iron bottom'; every time it drops here, it has basically been a strong recovery point for long-term demand.
As retail investors, our primary task now is not to try to catch the bottom, but to survive. In this environment where leverage is rampant and liquidity is poor, a sell order of a few million dollars can create a big pit.
In short, the start of 2026 is quite hardcore, and what we need to do is maintain patience. If Bitcoin really gives us the opportunity to test $57,000, that might be the last major chance for us retail investors prepared by the heavens.
In this uncertain market, living longer is more important than making quick profits! What does everyone think? See you in the comments.
Recently, Bitcoin's performance has indeed left many people startled. It has pulled back nearly 40% from its peak, even dipping to around $74,500, setting a new low for 2026. Although there seems to be a bit of a rebound in the past few days, with nearly $700 million rushing into #ETF on Monday, I suggest everyone not to rush to call a bull market return; this rebound is very likely to be a dead cat bounce designed to lure in more investors.
Why do I say this? We retail investors need to be clear about a few harsh realities:
1. Institutional giants are pulling back their ladders.
Don't be fooled by the inflow on Monday; throughout January, institutions ran over $1.6 billion through #ETF , but this has been the worst month since #ETF was listed. If the price can't stabilize above the institutions' cost line (around $84,000), this rebound is likely just a correction, not a trend reversal.
2. The macro liquidity faucet has been tightened.
Recently, the Federal Reserve has undergone a leadership change, with the new big shot Kevin Warsh leaning hawkishly, the dollar is strengthening, and everyone is dumping risk assets. In my view, the current crisis is due to the exhaustion of dollar liquidity, with Bitcoin and tech stocks both declining simultaneously, indicating that this is not just a problem within the crypto circle; it’s a global cash shortage.
If $75,000 cannot hold, where will we look? Many analysts are eyeing the 200-week moving average (200WMA), which is currently around $57,000 to $58,000. Historical experience tells us that this line is the true 'macro iron bottom'; every time it drops here, it has basically been a strong recovery point for long-term demand.
As retail investors, our primary task now is not to try to catch the bottom, but to survive. In this environment where leverage is rampant and liquidity is poor, a sell order of a few million dollars can create a big pit.
In short, the start of 2026 is quite hardcore, and what we need to do is maintain patience. If Bitcoin really gives us the opportunity to test $57,000, that might be the last major chance for us retail investors prepared by the heavens.
In this uncertain market, living longer is more important than making quick profits! What does everyone think? See you in the comments.