姜楠的笔记

When anxious, go work out or learn English.
Because this is one of the few things in the world that "as long as you put in the effort, you will definitely be rewarded."

Making money is not like that.
Making money has never been linear; the more you work, the more you earn—not necessarily; it often happens suddenly, it’s about timing, cycles, and the random leaps that come after accumulation.

Yet many people remain stubborn:
The more they trade, the more they lose; they become shareholders from trading stocks, landlords from flipping houses, and end up with a husband from dating...
They think persistence is the direction, but the result is just losing more and more in life.

So don’t use all your energy to chase money.
Reclaim your life, strengthen your body, and add another dimension to your language, and you will find:
What can change you is not working harder, but being healthier, clearer, and freer. #共勉

Tonight's performance by the Federal Reserve is not about interest rate cuts, but whether it will turn on the faucet it holds! The Federal Reserve officially ended quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1. Now, bank reserves have dropped to levels seen during periods of financial stress, with rates even hitting the policy rate ceiling of #SOFR periodically. This indicates that the U.S. banking system is slowly entering a state of liquidity stress!

💸 The real highlight: the balance sheet is set to expand! A 25 basis point rate cut is no longer the main attraction. The most important signal from the Federal Reserve will be the direction of its balance sheet strategy.
The Federal Reserve is expected to clearly outline how it will transition to a reserve management purchasing program. This essentially means easing liquidity in a disguised manner.
#EvercoreISI predicts that this program could start as early as January 2026. It is expected to inject about $35 billion per month for the purchase of treasury bills, resulting in an annual growth of the balance sheet exceeding $400 billion.
U.S. banks predict that the Federal Reserve will announce a reserve management bond-buying program of about $45 billion per month at the end of this week’s meeting.

⚙️ Why must liquidity be injected? Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that this move is crucial for maintaining order in the repurchase market and ensuring smooth transmission of Federal Reserve monetary policy. In simple terms, without liquidity injection, the system will jam!

From my personal perspective, liquidity injection is a hard necessity, the banking system is already short on liquidity, and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion is not a matter of choice but a requirement! Whether it's $35 billion or $45 billion, the shift in liquidity has become a foregone conclusion. What to watch tonight? Don't just focus on interest rate cuts; pay close attention to the description of the start time and monthly scale of the #RMP plan in the implementation statement. This is the key signal determining whether $BTC can break through the $96,000 barrier.

$BTC / $ETH The monthly decline is approximately 20%-25%. It has experienced the weakest November since 2018! The culprit is actually Europe;
This month's cryptocurrency crash saw significant net selling pressure during European trading hours, which was the main force behind the price collapse of $BTC . The trading volume and buying power during Asian and American trading hours were basically balanced, with little selling pressure and little buying pressure.

In my opinion, the selling pressure from European funds is usually related to macro risk aversion, tightening liquidity in the Eurozone, or profit-taking from yen arbitrage funds. Europe, as a global financial center, is very sensitive to risk assets.

Barclays expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at this week's meeting, bringing the policy rate into the range of 3.5%-3.75%. The post-meeting statement may include hawkish language, suggesting a pause in rate cuts in January next year. This confirms the logic we discussed earlier about giving a slap and then a sweet date. At the same time, we maintain the forecast of a 25 basis point cut in March and June next year. The long-term median interest rate forecast will remain at 3%.

In my view, a rate cut is a done deal, and Barclays has already outlined the number of rate cuts for next year and 2026/2027. This stable and sustained expectation of easing is the long-term fuel for risk assets like $BTC to continue their bull run. As Barclays predicts, Powell's hawkish remarks (suggesting a pause in rate cuts in January) are likely to create a brief wave of market volatility during the Wednesday press conference, shaking off weak hands. However, as long as the lifeline of $87,000 is not broken, any pullback is a buying opportunity.

Congratulations @币安Binance华语
300 million users, not just a number, but the answer of an era.

This means:
300 million people are trying to break away from the old order and seek new opportunities.
300 million people are crossing countries, currencies, and identities, participating in the global economy with the same asset system.
300 million people are proving that cryptocurrency is not a story, but the future.

When the number of users on an exchange approaches the population of the United States,
you should realize that:
Trends are not determined by candlestick charts; trends are determined by people.

Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency industry are welcoming their "demographic dividend era."

The market is competing for trends every day, a mess of speculation:
Go long? Go short? Rebound? Pullback?

And the Strategy CEO said: "Hold BTC until 2065."
This has already told you what true long-termism is.

Bitcoin is not just a momentary trend,
it is the direction of an era.
You can't make money simply because you haven't made friends with time. #BTC

Three years of struggles have led to a single phrase that can bring someone to tears; the hardships in between are understandable. I met coffee in person once, and they are truly a child with special thoughts and insights.

I believe that most people enter the crypto world just as ordinary individuals looking to seize a chance for a turnaround —
only to gradually forget: the initial reason for entering was to have a better life, not to be consumed by market trends and become someone else.

I particularly agree with @比特Coffee :
What we truly desire has never been about trading coins or the aura of genius, but about freedom, relaxation, love, and a broader world.

Today, I set a flag:
In the future, money should be spent on oneself, on loved ones, and no longer should youth be wasted on the market.

The rate cut process is getting closer to neutral, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates by another 25 basis points on December 10. The policy rate will drop to 3.5%-3.75%, heading towards the historical neutral rate of about 3%.\n\nHowever, don't just focus on the rate cut! This week, the Federal Reserve's real bombshell is the liquidity injection plan! Although the rate cut is basically secure, the market is currently more concerned about how the Federal Reserve will handle its massive balance sheet after stopping the tapering. Whether it injects new liquidity into the market is the key to whether risk assets can continue to soar!\n\nMajor bank forecasts:\nBank of America will start purchasing $45 billion of Treasury bills maturing in one year or less starting in January.\nVanguard will purchase $15 billion to $20 billion of Treasury bills monthly from the end of the first quarter/early second quarter of next year.\n\nIn my view, market logic has changed; previously, everyone focused on rate cuts, but now they need to focus on liquidity injection (buying bonds = more money). If the Federal Reserve starts large-scale purchases of Treasury bills, that means they are directly pouring money into the market!\n\nDiscrepancies create opportunities: Bank of America is optimistic about starting to inject large amounts of money in January, while Vanguard believes it will have to wait until next year. This time difference is the space for us to speculate on volatility.

From the on-chain data, the pullback of $BTC may be reaching its bottom, and the Bitcoin ratio of #SOPR (cost-to-output ratio) has dropped to 1.35! This is the lowest level since the beginning of 2024.

As $BTC pulls back to $89,700, this indicator shows that the market's profits have undergone a complete reset. Therefore, the large-scale profit-taking phase for long-term holders is weakening. This indicates that those who want to sell have nearly sold out, and selling momentum is waning.

Historically, when #SOPR falls to a low level similar to 1.35, it usually indicates that a local bottom is forming, and market enthusiasm is cooling off. If $BTC can reverse from its current position, it will lay a solid foundation for the next round of healthy upward movement.

UBS expects that the Federal Reserve may purchase about $40 billion of short-term government bonds each month starting in early 2026!

In my opinion, the act of purchasing government bonds essentially injects liquidity into the market. Although it may not directly be called #QE (quantitative easing), the effect is similar and can be seen as a form of indirect monetary easing. This perfectly aligns with our earlier analysis of Hassett possibly taking office, as well as Delphi's prediction of interest rate cuts and a net positive liquidity environment in 2026.

The Renminbi quietly strikes back! #CNH breaks through 7.06, $USDT shorts are being wiped out!\nLet's take a look at the market situation: the offshore Renminbi (#CNH ) has risen from a high of 7.4 in April to 7.06, reaching a new high in a year! Those who firmly believed that the Renminbi would break 7.3 have been forcibly liquidated! Long-term holders of US dollars, especially those holding shadow dollars $USDT , are passively losing when valued in Renminbi!\n\n🤯 Why is the Renminbi suddenly so strong? (Threefold synergy)\nThis appreciation is different from previous interventions by the central bank; it has been chosen by the market itself! Data shows that the closing price rose first, and the mid-price just adjusted accordingly, indicating that market funds are genuinely buying Renminbi!\nSince the beginning of this year, the US dollar index has fallen nearly 10%. Expectations for US interest rate cuts continue to strengthen, leading to arbitrage funds closing positions and resulting in the passive weakening of the dollar. During this down cycle of the dollar, the Renminbi has become the brightest currency among emerging markets!\n\nThe appreciation of the Renminbi significantly strengthens the A-shares market, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 points (a nearly ten-year high). Chip and CPO tech stocks are soaring. The attractiveness of Chinese assets has significantly increased, foreign capital's risk appetite has returned, and funds are actively flowing in, causing the Renminbi to appreciate naturally. At the same time, real demand is strong, and companies are buying! Businesses are willing to exchange US dollars for Renminbi (the net trade settlement rate is rising) and are also willing to lock in future Renminbi exchange rates (hedging ratios have risen to 10%). This indicates that companies are bullish on the future trend of the Renminbi!\n\nGoldman Sachs reports that for every 1% appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar, China's stock market can rise by 3%. In particular, state-owned enterprises with dividends and leading AI firms will be the first to benefit.\n\nFor us players in the cryptocurrency space, this wave of Renminbi resurgence and policy trends brings dual risks to holding $USDT, such as shadow dollars.\nExchange rate loss: With the long-term appreciation of the Renminbi, holding $USDT (US dollars) long-term means you are effectively bearing the loss of dollar depreciation (when valued in Renminbi).\nRegulatory risk: The central bank and thirteen departments have joined forces to crack down on virtual currencies, officially bringing stablecoins under regulatory scrutiny! $USDT has been included in the foreign exchange management framework, and future exchanges of virtual currencies will be a key target for crackdown! At the same time, the costs and risks of exchanging USDT for Renminbi in the over-the-counter market will also increase.

After CZ stepped down as CEO, he spent money on free education? The company #GiggleAcademy has already allowed 80,000 children to learn cryptocurrency courses for free, and plans to create multilingual and user-generated tools. (Inner thoughts: Not making money today for charity, just investing in the future's 'chives'... oh wait, I mean the future's industry main force!)

In my opinion, CZ is conducting a talent cultivation and user development plan that lasts for ten years. When this group of children grows up, they will be the ones who understand cryptocurrency the most and are most willing to use it. This move is more visionary than any airdrop!)

Official confirmation! Japan's interest rate hike in December is almost certain, and the government will not interfere! Previously, there were rumors about Japan's interest rate hike, and now Reuters and government insiders have come out to confirm it!\nKey revelation: Three Japanese government insiders say that the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in December, and the government is expected to tolerate this decision!\nInterest rate increase: It is expected to raise the policy interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%.\nOfficial stance: One of the insiders directly stated that if the Bank of Japan wants to raise interest rates this month, it should decide for itself. This is the government's position. They added that a rate hike by the central bank this month is almost certain.\n\n💡 Why is this time for real?\nThe governor hinted: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled during a speech on Monday that there would be a thorough discussion on the pros and cons of raising interest rates. Once the news broke, the market's pricing for a December rate hike surged to about an 80% probability.\n\nFrom my personal perspective, although Hasett may bring significant long-term benefits to #Crypto , the Bank of Japan's rate hike in December is indeed a short-term negative! This will prompt the unwinding of yen carry trades, squeezing global liquidity. Since the rate hike is almost certain, the market's focus will soon shift to what level the central bank will ultimately raise rates to. Ueda is still quite ambiguous on this topic.

The surge continues! BTC breaks through 94,000, ETH stabilizes at 3,200! The upward trend in the crypto market is still ongoing! This rebound is really strong!

🔥 Driving forces behind the surge:
1. Small non-farm positive news digested: The U.S. November ADP employment change is -32,000, far below expectations (the expectation was +10,000). This indicates that the job market is worse than anticipated. The expectation for interest rate cuts should have heated up, but the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in December has slightly decreased to 88.8%.

2. Trump's team deploys a loosening strategy: Insiders reveal that Trump's staff is discussing that if he appoints the dovish Hassett as Federal Reserve Chairman, the current Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will become the Director of the White House National Economic Council. This means that dovish and crypto-friendly individuals will simultaneously control monetary policy and economic decisions, which is a huge long-term positive for the #Crypto market!

3. Regulatory spring breeze: SEC Chairman #PaulAtkins stated that the "Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill" is about to pass. With regulations in place, institutional funds can enter the market on a large scale! Franklin $SOL spot #ETF has already been listed for trading.

4. #Polymarket also officially returns to the U.S. market, launching a U.S. version of the app.

💡 From my personal perspective, the macro backdrop has been set. QT ending + Trump's team of doves + crypto-friendly personnel deployment has given the market a super strong reassurance. The expectation of macro liquidity easing is already highly stable. Previously, $BTC was driven by macro data; now, the small fluctuations in macro data can no longer affect the upward trend of $BTC . This indicates that the market's bullish sentiment has become very solid!

Tonight at 21:15, the ADP report is coming, and tonight's market may be very exciting!

The Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting next week, but strangely, the official non-farm employment numbers and inflation data are absent! This makes tonight's ADP report the only window and key guide for the Federal Reserve to observe the U.S. labor market!

Since it is the only reference data for the Federal Reserve, its influence on the market will be amplified! Volatility is expected, whether it's $BTC or the U.S. stock market, both may be driven by the data.

In my opinion, if the ADP is strong (data above expectations), it indicates a hot labor market and persistent inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve may continue to be hawkish, which would be bad for risk assets ($BTC ).

If the ADP is weak (data below expectations), it indicates a cooling labor market and rising expectations for interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve may turn dovish, which would be good for risk assets ($BTC ).

Trump has started naming names again, this time during a cabinet meeting. Trump said he might announce the Federal Reserve chair candidate early next year. He has evaluated 10 candidates and, when introducing Hassett at the White House meeting, directly stated that the potential Federal Reserve chair is right here! This basically names Hassett. He also reiterated his criticism of the current chair, Powell, believing that he should lower interest rates. Moreover, he brought in allies, saying that even JPMorgan CEO Dimon said Powell should cut rates!

From my personal perspective, Trump is just feeding the market doves; Hassett is the pioneer of the doves and is an open advocate for lowering interest rates. Trump's constant criticism of Powell aims to create expectations for rate cuts, which is a significant boost for the stock market and risk assets like #Crypto in the short term.

The current volatility of Bitcoin is almost highly synchronized with the Japanese yen. Why do I say this? Let’s talk about the arbitrage logic behind it. Simply put, the yen's interest rate was extremely low before (the cost of borrowing was almost zero), so many big players borrowed large amounts of yen, then exchanged these yen for USD, investing in high-risk, high-return assets like $BTC . This is the yen arbitrage trading. Now, the Bank of Japan is going to raise interest rates, and the cost of borrowing yen has increased. The big players must quickly close their positions (sell $BTC to exchange for USD, then exchange back to yen to repay debts).

Therefore, once the yen strengthens (arbitrage closing positions lead to yen being bought), $BTC faces selling pressure. The trend of BTC naturally synchronizes with the yen.

Thus, Bitcoin has fully integrated into the global macro liquidity cycle! It is no longer an isolated market but a barometer of global capital migration. The biggest risk now is the concentrated closing of yen arbitrage trades. This amount of capital is enormous, and once there is a large-scale withdrawal from the BTC market, we will face continued downward pressure.

This wave of plummeting prices has left institutional bigwigs baffled! The Chief Investment Officer of #Arca , #JeffDorman , directly posted that this is the most bizarre cryptocurrency sell-off in history!
He said that there are clearly a lot of positive factors in the market! The Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates, quantitative tightening is about to end, and stocks and gold are all hitting new highs. Moreover, the reasons for the sell-off are completely untenable! #MSTR did not sell, Tether did not collapse, and the Federal Reserve did not turn hawkish...

The positives are real, the negatives are fake, but the price is still falling! It's too bizarre!

#JeffDorman ultimately found an answer he could accept: a lack of buying power internally. Although technology is advancing and policies are improving, this does not change the fact that the current #Crypto ecosystem lacks buying power. Native crypto investors are exhausted, and new funds have not entered the market. In simple terms, the old investors have no money left, and new investors have not come in. Although major institutions like Vanguard, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs are about to enter the market, their investment processes are not yet completed, so the money cannot come in. The market will continue to be influenced by existing funds and leveraged sentiment. Once these institutions can easily allocate crypto assets, then the logic of $BTC prices will fundamentally change.