姜楠的笔记

When anxious, go work out or learn English.
Because this is one of the few things in the world that "as long as you put in the effort, you will definitely be rewarded."

Making money is not like that.
Making money has never been linear; the more you work, the more you earn—not necessarily; it often happens suddenly, it’s about timing, cycles, and the random leaps that come after accumulation.

Yet many people remain stubborn:
The more they trade, the more they lose; they become shareholders from trading stocks, landlords from flipping houses, and end up with a husband from dating...
They think persistence is the direction, but the result is just losing more and more in life.

So don’t use all your energy to chase money.
Reclaim your life, strengthen your body, and add another dimension to your language, and you will find:
What can change you is not working harder, but being healthier, clearer, and freer. #共勉

The #CPI at 20:30 tonight is the lifeline that determines whether Bitcoin will rush to 72,000 or pull back to 67,000 in the short term.
📊 March 11: The night of the CPI showdown
Expected data (reference standard):
CPI year-on-year expected: 2.4%-2.5%
Core CPI month-on-month expected: 0.2%-0.3%

Current situation of the game:
Currently, $BTC is moving sideways around 69,600, with cliffs above and below.
Upper pressure: A massive number of short positions are ambushed around 72,000 USD.
Lower support: The area of 67,000-69,000 USD is the leverage liquidation zone for bulls.

Data cooling is favorable:
If the core CPI is less than or equal to 0.2%, combined with last week's weak employment data, the market will wildly bet that the Federal Reserve must cut interest rates.
This will be the strongest fuel to break through the resistance level of 72,000 USD, targeting directly at 75,000 USD.

If rising oil prices push up the CPI leading to data exceeding expectations (for example, year-on-year > 2.5%), then the Federal Reserve may turn hawkish again. Once the data turns red, the lower leverage liquidation zone (67k-69k) will quickly seek support at 65,000 USD.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to maintain its interest rate in March, with wage growth being its primary focus. The mid-March wage negotiation data (Spring Tome) is not yet available, preventing a potential rate hike.

If a rate hike doesn't occur in March, the yen could surge towards 160 against the dollar or even higher, requiring the Japanese government to intervene with substantial funds to support the market.

It's important to understand that a significant amount of global capital is borrowing yen at near-zero interest rates to invest in Bitcoin and US stocks.

No rate hike in March means these borrowed yen remain relatively safe, a short-term positive for Bitcoin and US stocks.

However, if the wage data confirms a rate hike, these large funds borrowed to buy cryptocurrencies will flow back to repay their debts. This could lead to a massive outflow of funds from the cryptocurrency market.

While watching Bitcoin's price of over $70,000, keep a close eye on the yen. A sharp V-shaped rebound in the yen's exchange rate often leads to a significant drop in Bitcoin's value.

The current Bitcoin is in a loss-cutting period.
Last week, short-term holders (those holding coins for less than 155 days) were almost all selling at a loss.

As long as the price briefly returns above 70,000, these holders will hurry to exit to preserve their capital.

The average cost for the short-term holding group is 89,000. Compared to the current 67,000, these individuals are losing over 20,000 USD on average per coin.

This is why it feels like the price hasn't been able to rise recently.

This huge cost price difference has filled the upper side with sell order landmines, and any slight rebound in price will encounter tremendous selling pressure to preserve capital.

Are you the friend who has a position near 89,000 USD, waiting for a rebound to exit? Or are you waiting for them to finish cutting losses, preparing to pick up bargains near 60,000?

In spring, the surge of Bitcoin towards 100,000 USD has raised high alert among regulators, who are rigorously preventing risks from infecting the domestic financial system.

Therefore, the guiding principle of the policy has always remained unchanged — you can observe, you can research, but engaging in large-scale trading speculation and illegal exchanges domestically is like dancing on a minefield.

📅 Tonight 21:30: The non-farm "results"—is it a good opportunity to increase positions or a moment to avoid risks?
Official script (market expectations):
Non-farm employment population: Expected 59,000 (compared to January's 130,000, this is a huge "slowdown").
Unemployment rate: Expected 4.3% (at a high level in recent years; if it continues to rise, the recession alarm will sound).

🧐 How do retail investors view it? Three "results" scenarios:
Scenario A: Data is worse than expected (for example, employment less than 30,000, unemployment rate rises to 4.4%)
Retail mindset: "Oh no, the economy is going to recession!"
Market logic: This kind of "bad news" is actually "good news." It means the Federal Reserve will have to consider cutting interest rates to rescue the market.
Reaction: The dollar may plunge, and Bitcoin and gold will likely surge violently.

Scenario B: Data is better than expected (for example, employment exceeds 100,000, unemployment rate drops to 4.2%)
Retail mindset: "The U.S. economy is too strong; everyone has a job!"
Market logic: This kind of "good news" is "bad news." The Federal Reserve will think: Since employment is so good, I won't rush to cut interest rates; high rates will continue.
Reaction: The dollar strengthens, which is a major negative for risk assets like Bitcoin, and a sell-off is likely.
Scenario C: Data meets expectations (around 59,000, 4.3% unchanged)
Reaction: The market may first experience "spikes" of volatility, then continue to move sideways while waiting for next week's CPI inflation data.

What should we do?
Reject "betting big or small": In the few minutes when the data is released at 21:30, the market fluctuations will be extremely bizarre, often first rising then crashing or first crashing then rising. It is recommended that retail investors turn off high leverage or simply wait half an hour until the trend is clear before acting.

Keep a close eye on the key point of "4.3%" for the unemployment rate: The current market is very sensitive to recession. If the unemployment rate unexpectedly spikes (for example, to 4.5%), although long-term rate cuts are beneficial, in the short term it may trigger a panic sell-off (commonly referred to as "recession kill").

In summary: Tonight's data is to set the market's "tone." It is recommended to wait until after 22:00 to see the real market absorption after the U.S. stock market opens before making a decision.

At half past nine tonight, are you prepared to stay in cash and watch, or have you already placed orders to "buy the dip" or "chase the rise"?

Bitcoin approaches a critical bullish-bearish watershed zone, whether it breaks through or not may determine the direction of the market in the future.
This week, Bitcoin performed remarkably, rising over 10%, firmly standing above the $72,000 mark, even reaching as high as $73,900. But the real challenge is just beginning—the price is rushing towards the ultimate bullish-bearish watershed of the past two years: the range of $73,750 to $74,400.

Why is this range a critical juncture for retail investors?
At the beginning of 2024, the upward momentum came to a halt here, leaving many who bought in at high prices standing guard for a long time.
In April 2025, it became the end point of a downward trend.
Simply put, if it can stand above this range, it means the stars and the sea, starting a new wave of bull market; if it can't hold, the shadow of the downward trend since last October will not have dissipated.

I believe this breakthrough is not just a price issue, but also a matter of confidence.
Many people see a 10% increase and want to go all in, but don't forget, this range has 'memory.' Within this narrow range, the battle of main funds will be very intense, and there may be severe spikes up and down.

For retail investors, missing out on that $500 increase is not frightening; what is frightening is rushing in during a false breakout. If the daily level can steadily hold above $74,400, that would be a good entry point for right-side traders.

If in the coming days this range continues to hover without making a move, or even shows a high volume spike followed by a pullback, then one must be wary that this is just a 'trap' to lure in buyers, and the overall downward trend may not have ended.

The recent rebound of the big pie is indeed fierce, but is it the big players entering the market or harvesting? Currently, the game between Wall Street and institutions has become intense, and we retail investors need to keep our eyes wide open to see these bottom cards clearly.
BlackRock withdrew a net of 3,809 tokens yesterday and locked them in the cold wallet with the number $BTC . The spot market saw a net inflow of 225 million dollars with #ETF , and Ark Invest is also crazily increasing their positions in crypto stocks like COIN and HOOD. The big players are violently accumulating shares amid the chaos, locking in future liquidity.

Gamma Fund also bottomed out at 1,984 by purchasing 9,000 tokens with the number $ETH . Looking at this price point, it shows that in the eyes of institutions, Ethereum below 2,000 dollars is an extremely attractive 'value trench'. This large-scale bottom accumulation is solid evidence that market confidence is structurally recovering.

Is Bitcoin Bottoming Out? The Aftershocks of Geopolitics Are Still Roaming the Market

Personally, I still haven't dared to catch the parabolic curve of gold this time; I am more optimistic about the bottoming signal of $BTC . Although $BTC has halved by 50% compared to last October's high, the characteristics of the bottom are already very clear. Although 2026 is the fourth year of the cycle and a year of correction, such a deep pullback is precisely to build momentum for the next long bull market.

The logic of Bitcoin is actually very simple and doesn't need to be overly complicated. Bitcoin has a total supply cap of 21 million coins and a halving effect every four years, which is its hardcore nature against inflation.

Although we are currently in a bear market, most high leverage has been cleared out during the negative attack over the weekend. Low participation from retail investors and light positions actually mean that new shocks are unlikely to create a "deep pit" again.

In terms of operation, I still insist on firmly holding the support and entering the market in batches. I will closely monitor the range of $63,000 to $64,500, which is the psychological defense red line and average turnover cost area for the entire market. As long as this position can hold steady after the U.S. stock market opens, I will not hesitate to increase my spot position. Meanwhile, the upper resistance level of $70,000 still needs to be watched out for.

64,500 is worth our steadfastness. The feeling of monitoring the market these past few days has been like a roller coaster. 64,500 dollars is not just a number; it is the bottom line for most market participants. The recent price has repeatedly fallen below and then forcefully returned, indicating that the bulls' resistance here is not a light drizzle, but a solid defense.

Additionally, the most intense wave of panic from the U.S.-Iran conflict has passed. When war is no longer unexpected, its marginal destructive power on the market is diminishing.

A couple of days ago, during the weekend when institutions were closed, the bears couldn't push the price back down to the 5,000 range, indicating that the bearish momentum has reached a phase of exhaustion.

Tonight's U.S. stock market opening is a true test. If $BTC 64,500 dollars can be confirmed again, then this divergence of 'gold rising and bitcoin falling' may reverse.

Expectations for interest rate cuts are cooling, and the market's fantasy that the incoming Federal Reserve Chairman Waller would immediately implement easing has nearly evaporated. With the IMF raising the U.S. economic growth forecast to 2.4%, coupled with the unemployment rate stabilizing around a healthy range of 4%, the decline in inflation has removed the Federal Reserve's motivation for significant rate cuts. The interest rate futures market has even postponed the first rate cut to July, with only a symbolic reduction of 25 basis points likely to occur this year. Even more concerning is that hawkish voices within the Federal Reserve have emerged, suggesting a 'restart of rate hikes'.

In my personal view, this macroeconomic pressure indicates that there is a clear accumulation of short positions in the 69,000–70,500 region above $BTC , while the 66,000–66,500 range below serves as a dense support area for long positions. The price is currently oscillating around the midpoint of this range, typical of a liquidity tug-of-war structure.

The Great Computing Earthquake! Bitcoin mining difficulty has experienced its largest single adjustment since 2021, with a drop of up to 11.16%.\nI smell an extremely strong scent of liquidation, with two very heart-wrenching truths behind it:\n1. The price of cryptocurrency has dropped from a high of $126,000 to below $70,000, a decline of over 45%, which directly pierced the lifeline of many high-cost mining machines, forcing many miners into a situation where they cannot cover their costs and have to shut down.\n2. The extreme cold storm in late January in the United States caused about 200EH/s of computing power across the entire network to instantly come to a halt to ensure power supply for residents.\n\nIn my view, the surrender of miners is often the last piece of the puzzle at the bottom of the cycle. Historical patterns show that when miners, these die-hard bulls, begin to shut down on a large scale and sell off their bleeding chips, we are often not far from the macro iron bottom we have been waiting for.

The black swan is becoming a reality, and the current technological form has officially bowed to the "deep bear market." I have been staring at the data all day and found that the logic behind this plunge has completely departed from the cryptocurrency circle. The weakness in the U.S. job market and the surge in unemployment claims have directly triggered a "risk aversion" tsunami across the market. Coupled with the synchronized collapse of tech stocks, the current $BTC has not only retraced more than 40%, but the weakening of market sentiment cannot be reversed by just a few small rebounds. So don't hold any illusions about weak short-term rebounds.

If $BTC continues to probe downward, touching $1300 at $ETH may just be a matter of time. Although the current funding rate has eased bearish sentiment somewhat, short sellers are still paying to prolong their lives, indicating that large funds are still betting on deeper declines.

Where do you think the bottom line for our last chance to get on board in this lifetime is? Tell me your answer in the comments!

Is the Bitcoin rebound just a scam? In the past few days, Bitcoin has been hovering around 76,000 USD, and I see many groups starting to call for a reversal. But I've been staring at the weekly chart all night, and I increasingly feel that this rebound is just a trap set for us retail investors!

To put it simply, the current 73,500 USD is definitely not the bottom; the market hasn't reached a state of despair yet. However, if it falls below 58,000 USD, it will directly pierce through MicroStrategy's 76,000 USD cost line, which could force a large number of miners to shut down and exit. Only when that happens, and the 46% of the network that is at a loss starts to collapse completely, perhaps even experiencing a sense of despair like the “chain explosion” of 2022, will the real bottom surface.

And let's not forget, we are currently facing those Wall Street institutions that are “ruthless.” Although in January, #ETF ran 1.6 billion USD, marking the worst start in history, as long as the price drops to 58,000 USD, those whales holding massive positions will definitely rush in.

Let me remind you again, I'm also keeping an eye on Ethereum. If it tests 58,000 USD, $ETH is likely to touch around 1,300. Given that the Federal Reserve has a 91% chance of maintaining interest rates in March and liquidity hasn't been released, any rebound without volume is just a trick.

So, folks, my strategy is: keep your hands steady and wait for this golden buying point at 58,000 USD/1,300. Even when the time comes, I will only establish a 20% initial position. In case it really drops to the “extreme trap” at 40,000 USD, the remaining bullets will be our trump card for a comeback. In this institution-led market, the only way for us retail investors to win is to be more patient than them. We wait until those speculators are completely liquidated before we go in to pick up treasures!

Do you think at the 58,000 USD level, the main force will give us the opportunity to board? Let's chat directly in the comments section and see how many brothers are waiting for this bottom just like I am!

Family, I just stared at the latest interest rate forecast of #CME for a long time, and I really feel cold inside. The market now expects that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March is as high as 91%, while the probability of a rate cut is a pitiful 9%! This means that in the coming month, the monetary easing we are looking forward to is most likely out of reach, and we have to continue living through these tough times with high interest rates.

From our retail investor perspective, this is definitely not a good signal. If the Federal Reserve continues this high-pressure policy, the dilemma of dollar liquidity depletion we talked about earlier can't be fundamentally alleviated, which indicates that Bitcoin's rebound to 76,000 USD in the past few days is very likely just a short pause after the big shorts harvested 2.5 billion USD in leveraged positions, rather than the trend reversal we hope for.

In my personal view, we still need to maintain that damn patience. Since the possibility of a rate cut in March is negligible, we shouldn't clash head-on with the macro trends at this critical moment. I have decided to continue executing my defensive strategy, keeping a close eye on the institutional cost line of 84,000 USD and the macro bottom of 57,000 USD. Before a clear signal of monetary easing emerges, preserving our capital is the only way for us retail investors to survive in this cruel game. Family, doesn't this 91% probability also make you completely calm about this rebound? Let's share our thoughts in the comments section, how much longer do you think we have to endure?

Dear fans and friends, have you all been able to ride the recent Bitcoin roller coaster calmly? Today, I want to share my heartfelt thoughts on the current market situation.

Recently, Bitcoin's performance has indeed left many people startled. It has pulled back nearly 40% from its peak, even dipping to around $74,500, setting a new low for 2026. Although there seems to be a bit of a rebound in the past few days, with nearly $700 million rushing into #ETF on Monday, I suggest everyone not to rush to call a bull market return; this rebound is very likely to be a dead cat bounce designed to lure in more investors.

Why do I say this? We retail investors need to be clear about a few harsh realities:
1. Institutional giants are pulling back their ladders.
Don't be fooled by the inflow on Monday; throughout January, institutions ran over $1.6 billion through #ETF , but this has been the worst month since #ETF was listed. If the price can't stabilize above the institutions' cost line (around $84,000), this rebound is likely just a correction, not a trend reversal.

2. The macro liquidity faucet has been tightened.
Recently, the Federal Reserve has undergone a leadership change, with the new big shot Kevin Warsh leaning hawkishly, the dollar is strengthening, and everyone is dumping risk assets. In my view, the current crisis is due to the exhaustion of dollar liquidity, with Bitcoin and tech stocks both declining simultaneously, indicating that this is not just a problem within the crypto circle; it’s a global cash shortage.
If $75,000 cannot hold, where will we look? Many analysts are eyeing the 200-week moving average (200WMA), which is currently around $57,000 to $58,000. Historical experience tells us that this line is the true 'macro iron bottom'; every time it drops here, it has basically been a strong recovery point for long-term demand.

As retail investors, our primary task now is not to try to catch the bottom, but to survive. In this environment where leverage is rampant and liquidity is poor, a sell order of a few million dollars can create a big pit.
In short, the start of 2026 is quite hardcore, and what we need to do is maintain patience. If Bitcoin really gives us the opportunity to test $57,000, that might be the last major chance for us retail investors prepared by the heavens.

In this uncertain market, living longer is more important than making quick profits! What does everyone think? See you in the comments.

666

Dear friends, if you woke up this morning to find your account shrinking, or even your positions directly evaporating, don't be sad; you are not alone. The entire network has seen liquidations close to 2.2 to 2.5 billion dollars in the last 24 hours, with over 335,000 investors being directly taken out of the market.
The trigger for this black Sunday was Trump's formal nomination of Fed chair nominee Waller on January 30.
Is he a friend of digital currency or a retail investor harvester?
After Waller's nomination, the first reaction in the crypto world was actually one of celebration, because he had publicly supported Bitcoin, considering it an excellent gauge for monetary policy. But the capital markets quickly woke up: this 55-year-old man is fundamentally a hawk on monetary policy.
From the perspective of retail investors, what are we most afraid of? We fear that the Fed won't loosen its policy and that quantitative tightening (QT) will occur. Waller's historical record shows that even during times of economic pressure, he cares more about inflation and discipline.

In my personal opinion, don't be fooled by his Bitcoin-friendly label. Waller does have a positive outlook on Bitcoin, but he values discipline even more. He even proposed significantly reducing the Fed's current balance sheet of up to 6.6 trillion dollars. What does shrinking the balance sheet mean? It means draining the liquidity from the market. This fear of shrinking the balance sheet is precisely what triggered the sell-off on Sunday.

Large holders are waiting for buying opportunities at 70,000 dollars or even lower, while leveraged retail investors are being liquidated in the dark. If you wish to stay at the table, be sure to put away your leverage and focus on the truly valuable underlying infrastructure—like Ethereum's upcoming upgrade #Glamsterdam , or Bitcoin's #ZK-rollup experiment.
Although Waller is a hawk, he is also a sensible person. As long as the Fed doesn't act recklessly, the long-term scarcity value of Bitcoin remains unmatched. But the premise is that you have to survive until then.
Stay vigilant, and see you next time!

$BTC The bulls are currently holding on while the bears are sharpening their knives.
Currently, the bulls' dominant position in closing trades has reached 97%, and almost all liquidations are from the bulls.
This indicates that market sentiment has become extremely distorted. Although such extreme values usually foreshadow a possible short-term rebound (because the selling pressure is intense), without subsequent funds to take over, this stabilization is merely a dead fish jumping.
Moreover, after a normal drop, the funding rate should turn negative (bears pay bulls). The funding rate is still positive now.
In my view, this suggests that the bulls in the market are not giving up; they are crazily rebuilding their long positions at an extremely high cost. Since the position structure is still tilted towards the bulls, any rebound is just a wave of escape.

Remember that saying—only when the bulls stop being bullish will the market truly be able to rise. The current funding rate indicates that the bulls have not been subdued; the market might still go through a more severe drop to force the funding rate to zero.