姜楠的笔记

When anxious, go work out or learn English.
Because this is one of the few things in the world that "as long as you put in the effort, you will definitely be rewarded."

Making money is not like that.
Making money has never been linear; the more you work, the more you earn—not necessarily; it often happens suddenly, it’s about timing, cycles, and the random leaps that come after accumulation.

Yet many people remain stubborn:
The more they trade, the more they lose; they become shareholders from trading stocks, landlords from flipping houses, and end up with a husband from dating...
They think persistence is the direction, but the result is just losing more and more in life.

So don’t use all your energy to chase money.
Reclaim your life, strengthen your body, and add another dimension to your language, and you will find:
What can change you is not working harder, but being healthier, clearer, and freer. #共勉

In this round of BSC, if you want to play in the second phase, you can't avoid #Flap (🦋 Butterfly Platform).
Now the BSC consensus is very clear: Flap for BSC is like Bonk for SOL.
In the current BSC liquidity environment:
500,000 market cap = Small Gold Dog
1,000,000 and above = Real Gold Dog
If we look at a very rough but real indicator: Withdrawal Rate = 500K market cap ÷ Total number of launches, the number of Flap launches is not many, but the quality is obviously higher, and the withdrawal rate has already outperformed fourmeme.
More importantly is the ability in the second phase.
Recently, the star projects on Flap have been repeatedly validated:
#分红狗头 —— A few days old project, breaking new highs for the second time
#OSK —— A typical second phase re-evaluation model
#LAF —— Million market cap, clearly from #FLAP launch
These are not "lucky dogs", but the result of community + funds + narrative completing the second consensus internally in Flap.
What you see now is:
The community with the most traffic and the best at playing the second phase is continuously building on Flap.
Instead of retail investors taking the last baton outside.
👉 If you still have prejudice against Flap
👉 Then you are very likely to miss the most certain profit structure in this round of BSC
Now is the best stage to enter the Butterfly and focus on the Alpha star projects.

Federal Reserve decision and other key events, $BTC has returned to 88,000, this position resembles a trap area, both long and short positions are holding their breath, waiting for the major events this Wednesday to set the tone.

Federal Reserve decision (today):
Expectation: The market generally expects interest rates to remain unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%.
Focus: Investors are looking for signals in the lines about "when to restart rate cuts." As Chairman Powell's term comes to an end, and the new government’s desire for low rates grows, the independence of the Federal Reserve and the shift in policy are the biggest variables for market volatility.

U.S. government funding deadline (January 30):
Risk: If an agreement on funding is not reached, the U.S. government may face a shutdown.
Impact: A short-term deadlock could trigger risk-averse sentiment, leading to tightening liquidity. Once an agreement is reached, risk premiums will quickly decline, and cryptocurrencies may return to an upward trajectory.

In my view, if the government funding agreement can be reached as scheduled on January 30, combined with the relatively mild statements from the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin is very likely to achieve an effective breakthrough at the $90,000 level.

Where is the bottom for Bitcoin? Market sentiment has shifted from hoping for 100,000 to praying for 80,000. Since January 14, it has fallen more than 10%. The latest data from January 27 shows that gold prices have surpassed 5,000 USD. Funds are flowing from digital gold to physical gold. The temporary failure of this safe-haven property is the main reason for the loss of 87,000 at $BTC .
Currently, attention should be paid to key support levels at 80,000 and 75,000. Short-term fluctuations are not the core focus; if prices rebound, hold and gradually diversify the allocation, and if a deep correction occurs, it should be seen as a buying opportunity.
2026 is a cyclical bear market, and a drop of over 50% down to 58,000 is considered a thorough decline.

Now, the $ETH has no story in front of AI and no sense of security in front of gold. In the past week, there has been a withdrawal of 1.3 billion to 1.7 billion USD. Institutions are no longer the ones picking up the pieces but have become the ones smashing the market. The U.S. has become a heavy disaster zone for withdrawals. The probability of falling below 2,000 is much higher than returning to 4,000.

Just saw that #币安 has launched TSLA perpetual stock, and I clearly stand my ground: this is the "version leap" of cryptocurrency exchanges.

Many people only see one announcement: "There is one more TSLA contract, with 5x leverage."

But what is actually happening is that Binance is unifying the "global core assets" into a single cryptocurrency trading system.

❌ No need for a US stock account
❌ No need for currency exchange
❌ No need for T+1
❌ No need to be filtered by country and threshold

👉 You only need USDT.

The essence of this step is not about "doing US stocks", but redefining who is qualified to participate in global asset pricing.

Traditional finance relies on access thresholds to filter people, while Binance breaks through the barriers with its products.

TSLA is not the end point; it is just the first core US stock asset to be "cryptified". By the time you realize it, NVDA, AAPL, and index contracts will just be a matter of time.

By then you will find: it is not Binance doing US stocks, but US stocks being pulled into the cryptocurrency world.

If DeFi is a rewrite of financial structures, what Binance is doing is a rewrite of trading rights.

At this step, I unreservedly have a bullish outlook on Binance.

$BTC During this wave of selling in the early morning, the main function is to liquidate long positions. Currently, Bitcoin has a return rate of -0.5% in January. Logically, with geopolitical turmoil, everyone should buy Bitcoin as a safe haven, but the funds have all gone to buy gold.

In my view, when the risk reaches a certain level, institutions will first liquidate the most liquid assets $BTC to supplement the stock or bond market positions. From January 19 to 23, Bitcoin spot #ETF had a net outflow of 1.33 billion USD, setting a historical second-high. BlackRock's #IBIT inflow has slowed, indicating that major funds have chosen to withdraw and wait in the face of uncertainty regarding the new policy of the 'understanding king'.

From the K-line perspective, 87,000 is not only a strong support on the weekly chart but also the average holding cost area for many institutions. Here, it's better to observe than to panic.

The yen surged, is the Federal Reserve acting behind the scenes? The yen exchange rate has experienced the most exaggerated single-day increase in over six months. The Federal Reserve may have intervened to help Japan print money to put out the fire.

If the Federal Reserve wants to stabilize the yen without letting Japan sell U.S. Treasuries (because selling U.S. Treasuries would crash the U.S. market), it has only one method:
Step one: The Federal Reserve creates dollars (bank reserves) out of thin air through digital printing.
Step two: Use these new dollars to buy yen in the market.
Result: There are more dollars, the value decreases; yen is bought, the value increases. The yen exchange rate stabilizes, but global dollar liquidity also increases as a result.

In my opinion, whether the Federal Reserve is trying to save Japan, save banks, or save U.S. Treasuries, as long as it starts printing money, the money will flow to the most sensitive and scarce asset—Bitcoin.

Federal Reserve Chair final round, Trump stated that he has completed the interviews for the next Federal Reserve Chair candidate, who will succeed the current Chair Powell, whose term ends in May this year.
The original front-runner, Hassett, has completely lost his momentum.
BlackRock executive Rick Rieder has become the standout performer. Ten days ago, Rieder's odds were only 3%, and now they have soared to 33%. BlackRock is indeed the shadow of Wall Street, not only mastering Bitcoin #ETF , but now also wanting to take a seat in the Federal Reserve Chair?

Kevin Warsh, although he is leading, is seeing his advantage being eroded by Rieder. Trump is now worried not about their professionalism, but rather about them turning against him once they take office, just like Powell did.

In my opinion, if Rieder takes office, the Federal Reserve will completely enter the era of major asset management. A Chair with a BlackRock background inherently comes with liquidity-friendly genes. This is not good news for the Bitcoin we hold; it's an epic level of support arriving. Now Trump publicly humiliates Powell for being too slow in his actions. This means that the first action of the new Chair after taking office is highly likely to be a violent interest rate cut to meet Trump's 1% rate target.

Must-read for trading altcoins
‼️‼️‼️
1. Hold when it rises 10%
2. Hold when it rises 20%
3. Reduce by 10% when it rises 30%
4. Reduce by 20% when it rises 40%
5. Reduce by 30% when it rises 50%
6. Reduce by 40% when it rises 60%
7. Clear position when it rises 100%
8. Hold when it falls 10%
9. Add 10% when it falls 20%
10. Add 30% when it falls 30%
11. Add 50% when it falls 50%
12. Add 100% when it falls 100%

US stocks and Bitcoin are both falling. US Treasury Secretary: Don't blame Trump for raising tariffs, and don't blame the Greenland purchase; it's all the fault of the Japanese bond market!
The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has indeed gone crazy in the past two days, breaking through 2.3% (a 27-year high), and the ultra-long 40-year bonds even surpassed 4%.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has thrown out a fiscal bomb of tax cuts and large expenditures for the election on February 8. Institutions are scared and are quickly selling Japanese bonds.
Japan is the largest creditor in the world. The soaring yield on Japanese bonds will lead to a withdrawal of Japanese capital from the global market (especially US Treasury bonds).

Trump strikes, Bitcoin directly breaks the $92,000 mark, gold becomes a god
On January 20, Trump made remarks about tariffs on Europe, stating "a 200% tariff will be imposed on French wine and champagne"
Trump and Europe are discussing buying islands and selling wine, resulting in the leveraged players in the cryptocurrency circle being hit hard by the tariff. Those brothers who were heavily invested at $95,000 probably can’t even afford to buy champagne with a 200% tariff right now.

This once again proves that in 2026, traders who don't watch Trump's Twitter are not good traders. Political noise has become the highest priority trading signal.

The selection of the Federal Reserve Chairman has suddenly changed, and Hassett may withdraw, while Walsh has become the biggest favorite.
Hassett recently stated that Trump hopes he will continue to shine in the White House.
Currently, the odds of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh have skyrocketed to 60%. Walsh is young, tough, and understands Wall Street. Most importantly, he is obedient enough in Trump's eyes but also professional.
In my opinion, if Walsh takes office, he is likely to implement policies that are more favorable for a hot economy. This means that the easing of monetary policy could be stronger than expected, and inflation could be harsher than anticipated.
After all, the current Federal Reserve Chairman election is not about whose economic theory is more solid, but rather who understands Trump's gaze better.

The price of Bitcoin is approaching the cost line for short-term holders, and the expected trend will become clear after increased volatility.
Currently, Bitcoin is at $95,500, testing the bottom line for short-term holders (average cost $99,460).

The gap between the current price and cost price is only 4% now. This is an extremely awkward decision zone. Sell it, and you feel regretful before dawn; don't sell it, and watch as this 4% unrealized loss could turn into a 10% significant bleed.

But in the eyes of us old investors, this is a large-scale tug of war between bulls and bears.
Upwards: If it can return to $100,000 and stabilize, those short-term holders will instantly transform from resentful figures into believers in the bull market; this will be the reversal.
Downwards: If the price falls below $89,500 (with a discount rate exceeding 10%), then it’s no longer a decision; it’s called a collective stampede.

In my view, this kind of fluctuation near the cost line is specifically designed to harvest those retail investors who cannot hold on and think too much.

Bitcoin has officially entered the policy sycophant mode. It's 2026 now, and if you are still holding onto that four-year cycle's metaphorical map, waiting for the halving to save your account, then it's basically the same as waiting for Newton to be resurrected to help you trade stocks.

In the past, we believed that Bitcoin was code is law, halving every four years, supply shrinking, and prices soaring. So pure, so mathematical! But now? Those giants like BlackRock are making daily purchases and redemptions in #ETF , with a scale that has long surpassed the meager earnings of miners.

Now there is no liquidity, and even if your Bitcoin is made of gold, no one will carry your palanquin. The government, in order to pay off debts, is spending wildly and must forcibly keep interest rates down, allowing inflation to run ahead of interest rates.

Everyone is still waiting for the institutional army to arrive in 2026, but institutions are not small players; their guts are smaller than a cat's. They don't care how much the halving has reduced; they care about that "U.S. Cryptocurrency Market Structure Legislation."
Without legislation: buying Bitcoin is a violation and will get you a coffee invitation from the compliance department;
With legislation: buying Bitcoin is a strategic allocation and can be included in the annual summary as a wise decision.
So, the logic of the current market is very simple: no good news, no institutional support.

Why 2026 might be the turning point for Bitcoin, shifting from a period of decline to a liquidity frenzy.
In my personal view, Bitcoin's lackluster performance in 2025 wasn't due to any flaw—it was simply because it was too honest. Bitcoin acts as a barometer of global U.S. dollar liquidity.
Last year, the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) drained U.S. dollars from the system, causing liquidity to dry up. Gold rose because central banks worldwide were reducing their reliance on the dollar, and the Nasdaq surged due to quasi-governmental subsidies for AI. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, lacking any such support, declined alongside the overall liquidity crunch.

By 2026, the rules of the game have changed. To secure votes ahead of the November midterm elections, the Trump administration will need hot economic data to stabilize its base. To stay in power, the Republican Party will forcefully inject liquidity into the market through the following three measures:

First, restart the printing press.
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet will expand again. The Fed will secretly inject hundreds of billions of dollars in liquidity each month using its new Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) tool.
Second, strategic lending.
Guiding commercial banks to flood strategic industries such as semiconductors, energy, and AI with capital. These funds will eventually flow into financial markets through wages and profits.
Third, lowering mortgage rates.
Using policy measures to bring down mortgage interest rates, thereby reactivating the real estate market's liquidity and making voters feel their wealth is growing.

Recently, the whole world has been watching the Federal Reserve's rate cut schedule, hoping that a little liquidity will spill over to rescue the market. But a harsh truth remains: rate cuts and monetary easing fundamentally do not create economic growth.

1. The foundation of the economy is workload, not money supply
The cornerstone of a nation's economic development is the real workload performed by countless ordinary people (what some call 'the working horses').
Money is fuel, and the economy is an engine. Rate cuts merely lower the price of fuel. If the engine is already running, rate cuts can indeed make it run faster; but if the engine's pistons are rusted shut and its fuel lines are blocked, pouring more fuel into the tank will only result in overflow—nothing useful happens.

2. The vanished millstone: regulatory costs killing opportunities
Why can't today's working horses find anywhere to grind anymore? It's not because there's not enough money, but because the friction of grinding has become so unbearable it's suffocating.
Restrictions on speech prevent information from flowing freely, extinguishing the spark of innovation;
Account freezes during transfers make transactions nerve-wracking, undermining commercial trust;
Interrogations during withdrawals strip private property of dignity, destroying the motivation to accumulate.
When speaking a word, transferring money, or withdrawing cash requires constant scrutiny and self-proof of innocence, the institutional transaction cost exceeds the profit from production. The result? No one wants to provide a millstone anymore, and no one dares to pull the grindstone.

3. Financial ex vivo circulation and chronic bleeding of the real economy
When the real economy dies from excessive regulation, the released liquidity does not flow into factories and farmland, but instead circulates in financial derivatives.
Funds whirl wildly in stock markets, bond markets, and cryptocurrencies, creating an illusion of prosperity;
Meanwhile, the real working horses still can't find jobs, because that money never reaches the engine.
The real cure isn't rate cuts—it's deregulation. Only by easing regulations, protecting property rights, and respecting credit can individuals freely speak, safely transfer funds, and confidently hold assets. Then the vanished millstones will reappear, and the economy's engine will roar back to life.

The viral success of 'Life K-line' has made the market重新认识 what 'true incremental growth' really means. This is not just another Meme project that's self-satisfied within the circle—it's a real project that has attracted external traffic.

1️⃣ On Xiaohongshu and Xianyu, content has been posted to drive traffic, and by attaching product links for 'K-line analysis,' tens of thousands of orders have already been sold—this is almost a one-sided dominance in the crypto space.
2️⃣ If you search 'Life K-line' on Baidu, it directly leads to the founder, Sakura @0xsakura666.
More importantly—this is one of the few crypto-related cases to receive positive coverage from mainstream Chinese media.
3️⃣ Not to mention that He Yi (@Yi He ) has followed him.

👍🏻 From January 10–11, the price surged over 100 times in just two days—not driven by VCs or manipulated by project teams, but entirely fueled by community-driven sentiment.
Looking back at recent Chinese Meme projects: 'Trump', 'Old Man', 'Beast', 'I'm here now'... to be honest, almost none of them offer real value.

👀 How far has the crypto community descended into self-mockery?
Previously, one could still claim to be involved in blockchain, Web3, or digital finance. Now, it's embarrassing to explain to others: 'I bought 'I'm here now'.

But #人生K线 is different.
It has a real user base outside the circle, practical AI application scenarios like 'Cyberpunk Box', a social narrative of charity,
And a proven reputation and traffic built on 'technology + mysticism + emotion + virality'.
If a project like this, which has truly gone viral beyond the circle, can't make it onto Binance @币安Binance华语 , then crypto investors might really need to ask Binance's listing team three serious questions?!

Because we all know one thing: Binance is not a launchpad, but a magnifier.
As the largest exchange in the universe, being listed on Binance doesn't mean the end,
But it does mean:
Greater liquidity
Higher platform credibility
Wider user awareness

So my judgment is simple:
✨ Life K-line will very likely make it to Binance.
✨ At the very least, it has already reached the point where it deserves serious discussion.

You may disagree, but you cannot deny—the real increment this time truly came from outside the circle.

The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice more in 2026, by 25 basis points each in June and September. Goldman Sachs released its 2026 economic outlook, forecasting strong U.S. economic growth alongside moderate inflation, with the Fed expected to cut rates twice more.
In my personal view, Goldman's scenario implies no rate cut利好 before the first five months of 2026. This forward-looking, option-style利好 will keep $BTC in a phase of reduced volume and consolidation throughout the first half of 2026.

If the economy remains strong but unemployment quietly rises due to AI-driven automation, the Fed may be forced to cut rates more aggressively in the second half than Goldman's forecast.

Has the rate cut in 2026 been delayed? The earliest possible start could be in June, considering the latest December non-farm data from last night (actual increase of 50,000, slightly below the expected 60,000; but the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%). We are at an extremely delicate macro turning point. The December non-farm data were mixed: the U.S. labor market as a whole is in a mild downward trend, yet the marginal improvement in the unemployment rate provides more reasons for the Fed to remain on the sidelines in January. Combined with the possibility that the Supreme Court may rule the IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional, this could be bullish for the U.S. stock market and dollar in the short term, while bearish for U.S. Treasuries. Data such as new jobs, job vacancy rate, and hourly wage growth indicate that the U.S. labor market remained relatively weak in December, but the marginal decline in the unemployment rate stands out as one of the few bright spots. From interest rate futures and U.S. Treasury market movements, the market pricing now suggests no rate cut in January, with the earliest possible start potentially in June.

In my personal view, if the rate cut is truly delayed until June, it will be an extremely tough grinding period for the crypto market, which heavily relies on liquidity, and high-valued tech stocks in the first half of the year. The shrinking spot trading volume has already shown that major funds are refusing to enter without a clear rate cut path. Even if the IEEPA tariffs are ruled unconstitutional, don't celebrate too soon. Treasury Secretary Bessent has already hinted that the government has a backup plan (such as invoking Section 232 or Section 301). This means tariffs might just be rebranded, and inflation pressures won't disappear overnight, so the Fed will likely maintain its hawkish stance.