Expectations for interest rate cuts are cooling, and the market's fantasy that the incoming Federal Reserve Chairman Waller would immediately implement easing has nearly evaporated. With the IMF raising the U.S. economic growth forecast to 2.4%, coupled with the unemployment rate stabilizing around a healthy range of 4%, the decline in inflation has removed the Federal Reserve's motivation for significant rate cuts. The interest rate futures market has even postponed the first rate cut to July, with only a symbolic reduction of 25 basis points likely to occur this year. Even more concerning is that hawkish voices within the Federal Reserve have emerged, suggesting a 'restart of rate hikes'.

In my personal view, this macroeconomic pressure indicates that there is a clear accumulation of short positions in the 69,000–70,500 region above $BTC , while the 66,000–66,500 range below serves as a dense support area for long positions. The price is currently oscillating around the midpoint of this range, typical of a liquidity tug-of-war structure.

BTCUSDT

Perp

73,889.9

+0.72%