宏观经济

【Japan's Interest Rate Hike: The 'Pump' of Global Liquidity Officially Starts】

Many people focus solely on the interest rate numbers, overlooking the deeper logic behind them. Japan's interest rate hike is not just a shift in monetary policy, but the end of the global 'cheap money era.' Three core logical points:

1️⃣ Reverse of carry trade: The yen has long been a global low-cost 'ATM.' Once interest rates rise, borrowing costs increase, and trillions in funds will flow back from high-yield assets to Japan.
2⃣ Forced liquidation pressure: An interest rate hike equates to a 'forced liquidation' of global risk assets. Overvalued tech stocks will be the first to feel the impact, followed by volatility transmitting to emerging markets.
3⃣ Liquidity withdrawal: This is not an instant collapse, but a continuous 'bleeding.' Cash value becomes prominent, and defensive assets (high dividends, stable bonds) will become a safe haven.

Impact path on the market:
Cryptocurrency ➔ US stocks ➔ Hong Kong stocks (most sensitive) ➔ A-shares (relatively insensitive).

Crypto strategies: Fund withdrawal, returning to Japan. Shrinking trading volume is the norm, and styles will skew heavily towards defense.

#加密市场观察 #美国非农数据超预期 #币圈分析 #宏观经济

$ETH $BTC $FIL 🔥🔥🔥Eruption Warning! Goldman Sachs' Heavy Prediction: The Fed's Rate Cut Wave Intensifies, Interest Rates May Exceed 3% by 2026!

1. 🚨 After three consecutive rate cuts, the Fed is more "dovish" than the market anticipated! Powell stated that employment data may be overestimated, warning that the labor market harbors downward risks, and the easing signals are fully on～#美联储政策 #降息预期

2. ‼️ Goldman Sachs Chief Strategist Josh Schifrin emphasized: The unemployment rate is the "key barometer" of policy, its importance far exceeds non-farm data, and the Fed's sensitivity to employment weakness continues to soar, significantly reducing resistance to rate cuts!

3. 🔥 Core predictions materialize: Moderate inflation retreat + increasing employment slack, the rate cut cycle will extend to 2026, and the federal funds rate is expected to fall below 3%! #宏观经济

4. 💥 Chain reactions are on the way: The yield curve will steepen, a mid-term weakening of the dollar is a high-probability event, and the global asset landscape may be reshaped! #加密货币行情前瞻 #美元走势
The market volatility window has opened, are you ready to position yourself?

🔥🔥🔥Non-farm payroll data exploded! In November, the addition of 64,000 jobs exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. The data for August and September has also been revised down, and in October, it plummeted by 105,000!

The market reacted quickly: expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January 2025 have risen to 31%📈, and the trend towards easing remains unchanged—two more rate cuts are expected in 2026, totaling about 58 basis points💸

The latest remarks from the Treasury Secretary: The Federal Reserve should maintain an "open mindset" as inflation may significantly drop next year, and plans to introduce a $100 billion tax rebate, with each household expected to receive $1,000 to $2,000!

Expectations for liquidity are heating up, and the market is paying attention to subsequent policy directions.
$币安人生 $ETH
#非农 #美联储 #降息预期 #宏观经济

The Bank of Japan raises interest rates, is global liquidity facing a "nuclear strike"? Is your wallet ready to "survive the winter"?🥶
Oh my, the Bank of Japan's operation this time is simply a "nuclear strike"! A historic interest rate hike of 25 basis points directly pushes the rate to 0.75%! 🇯🇵 Isn't it obvious that this will drain global liquidity? In the past, Japan was said to be a "big spender", but now it's a complete turnaround; this signal is not simple! It's like your home faucet, which used to be fully open, suddenly half-closed; doesn't your water pressure instantly drop? Global risk assets are going to suffer! Moreover, with the technical collapse of Bitcoin, this is simply a "fourfold blow"! I'm telling you, the impact of this interest rate hike is no joke; don't think it has nothing to do with us; the global economy is going to catch a "cold"! How significant do you think this interest rate hike will be? Let's chat in the comments!📉 #BankOfJapan #GlobalLiquidity #宏观经济

🔥【Breaking! Trump's Chosen 'Dovish Faction' to Lead the Federal Reserve? Market Sentiment Has Completely Shifted!】$BTC $ETH $BNB

Latest news, Trump's confidant is fully promoting former board member Waller to take over as the next Federal Reserve Chair, with market betting odds surging to the top!

Deutsche Bank analysis suggests that if Waller takes office, he may strongly support interest rate cuts and accelerate the balance sheet reduction process. He has long criticized the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy, arguing that the current inflation stems from the Fed's decisions, advocating for a strict separation of the functions of the Treasury and the central bank.

More critically, Waller is extremely optimistic about the U.S. economic outlook, believing that AI technology and deregulation will ignite a new wave of productivity revolution. If he ascends, the policy stance may shift to "accelerated easing + simultaneous balance sheet reduction," and the liquidity environment may undergo a structural change.

📈 Market Impact Outlook:
If Waller truly takes the helm of the Federal Reserve, rising expectations for interest rate cuts + strengthening narratives around tech growth could drive dual boosts to risk asset sentiment. The cryptocurrency sector, as a highly elastic segment, may respond first to expectations in liquidity-sensitive tracks (such as BTC, AI concept tokens, DeFi)!

💎 In summary: Political trends + policy logic + market bets are all pointing to a new name — Waller. Regardless of whether he is ultimately elected, this wave of expected liquidity has already begun to brew.

Stay tuned, plan ahead, and wait for the changes!
⬇️ What do you think? Let's chat in the comments!

#美联储 #降息预期 #宏观经济 #加密货币市场观察

Note: The content is only a consolidation of market information and opinion discussion, and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries risks, and decisions should be made cautiously.

Risk aversion is high, spot gold has reached $4350! This indicates that the market is inclined towards traditional safe-haven assets in the short term.
🧐 "Digital gold" #Bitcoin is consolidating. Given the spillover effect of gold on BTC, historical data shows that Bitcoin may experience a lagged recovery after liquidity conditions improve.
Pay attention to macro liquidity signals: gold leads, when will BTC catch up?
#黄金代币化 #宏观经济

👀The Delayed 'Judgment': Will Next Week's Non-Farm Data Provide Clear Guidance for the Market?

🎄Friends focused on macroeconomics know that after the Fed's interest rate cut this week, there has been a rare divergence internally regarding the future path. The 'judgment' of this debate is likely hidden in the upcoming U.S. non-farm employment report to be released next Tuesday (December 17).

What is exciting is that this report will simultaneously complete the employment data for October and November, presenting a more comprehensive picture of the labor market. At a time when the policy direction remains undecided, this clear vision is exactly what the market currently needs.

What is the market expecting?
According to professional analysis, the data may show a positive changing trend: although employment positions in October may temporarily pull back, November is expected to resume growth. At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to rise moderately to around 4.5%, which aligns with the Fed's expectations, indicating that the situation remains under control.

What does this mean for us?
The importance of this 'delayed' data lies in its ability to eliminate uncertainty for the market:

⭐️If the data confirms that the job market remains healthy and resilient, it will add weight to the optimistic narrative of a soft landing for the economy, helping to stabilize long-term market confidence.
⭐️If the data shows that the economy needs more support, it may also clarify future policy paths, allowing investors to better anticipate the liquidity environment.

For the crypto market, the release of this key report will help clear the recent fog, providing important fundamental anchors for the upcoming trends. Regardless of the outcome, clear information itself can reduce the market's disorderly fluctuations. Let us pay attention together and wait for the market to embrace a clearer direction.
$ETH $BNB $SOL

#非农就业数据 #加密市场观察 #宏观经济

$ETH $BTC $ZEC 🚨Japan's interest rate hike becomes next week's macro theme! Short-term emotional disturbances rather than cyclical damage

1. Reports suggest that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates to 0.75% and signal further rate hikes, with a final target potentially reaching 1.25%. A 50 basis points hike could exacerbate concerns over the narrowing Japan-U.S. interest rate differential.

2. Pay attention to the JP02Y and US02Y interest rate differential; currently, the nominal differential is still large, and the impact of a single rate hike is limited. Only when combined with subsequent rate hikes and expectations of U.S. rate cuts will emotional fluctuations be amplified.

3. The narrowing of the interest rate differential will lead to short-term liquidity tightening, but in the long run, a cyclical easing will be welcomed, overall characterized as a short-term emotional disturbance
#日本加息 #美日利差 #宏观经济 #美联储降息 #牛市进行中…

🇺🇸 The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points,
bringing the target range down to 3.5%–3.75%.

This means that market liquidity may improve, and investor sentiment towards risk assets could rise.

What do you think?👇
#美联储 #利率 #宏观经济 #加密货币 #Binance

Global Central Bank Storm Week! The Federal Reserve leads multiple countries' interest rate decisions, China's November CPI and social financing data make a significant appearance

Next week (12.8-12.13), the market is about to welcome the 'Super Central Bank Week,' with multiple countries' interest rate decisions being announced densely, and key economic data being released consecutively, expected to have a significant impact on the global financial market. Here are the key events and data overview:

📅 Monday (12.8)

· China's November trade balance
· Domestic refined oil price adjustment window opens

📅 Tuesday (12.9)

· Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision + Chairman Lowe press conference
· U.S. October JOLTs job openings

📅 Wednesday (12.10)

· China's November CPI, social financing data
· Bank of Canada interest rate decision
· Bank of England Governor Bailey speech

📅 Thursday (12.11)

· Federal Reserve interest rate decision + Powell press conference (the main focus)
· Swiss National Bank interest rate decision
· IEA and OPEC monthly crude oil report

📅 Friday (12.12)

· CPI data from multiple countries (Germany, France, UK)
· Several Federal Reserve officials speaking

📅 Saturday (12.13)

· CFTC positions report released

🔥 Focus Interpretation:
1️⃣ Will the Federal Reserve release a rate cut signal? The market closely watches the dot plot and Powell's statements.
2️⃣ How are China's inflation and credit data? This will affect A-shares, the Renminbi, and commodity sentiment.
3️⃣ With multiple central banks synchronously discussing interest rates, does this indicate a global monetary policy shift?
4️⃣ Dual reports in the crude oil market (IEA + OPEC) combined with EIA inventory, oil price volatility may intensify.

💎 Trading Advice: Large funds hold mainstream cryptocurrencies spot $ETH and $BTC , small funds hold ✨P u p P I e s🐶, suggested to pay attention to the U.S. dollar index, gold, government bonds, and major currency pair trends, ensure risk control, and avoid excessive exposure to a single event.

📌 Follow me for real-time interpretations and market strategies.
#美联储何时降息？ #利率决议 #CPI #宏观经济

Next week's news overview, one five-star event and four four-star events. #宏观经济 $BTC

🔥【Important data warning】The number of initial jobless claims in the United States is about to be released, will BTC change?

📅 Time: 21:30 (tonight)

📊 Data: Initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending February 1

⚠️ Expected: 213,000 vs. the previous value of 207,000 (if it exceeds expectations, the expectation of a Fed rate cut will increase!)

💡 Pay attention to risks

If the number of unemployed people rises unexpectedly → the US dollar is under pressure → Bitcoin may take advantage of the momentum to break through resistance!

If the data is lower than expected → the US dollar rebounds → Beware of short-term correction risks!

🚨 Recently, macro data has been released frequently, and the linkage between BTC and US stocks has intensified. It is recommended to keep a close eye on the market fluctuations and do a good job of risk control!

Do you think the data tonight will be positive or negative?

⚠️ There may be sharp fluctuations after the data is released. Operate with a light position and refuse FOMO!

#比特币 #美联储 #宏观经济 #交易策略 #币圈情报局 $BTC $SOL $XRP

The current macro-level is unprecedentedly complex, and the flow of funds in the global capital market is deeply affected by the uncertainty of the external environment. Focusing on potential crises and emergencies around the world, we first noticed that tensions in the Middle East have intensified sharply, and Iran's potential attack threat against Israel is imminent. The White House has issued an early warning and strengthened its defenses. At the same time, the international rating agency Fitch downgraded Israel's credit rating, further reflecting the concerns about regional security.

On the other hand, the shadow of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to loom, and the situation has taken a sharp turn for the worse. Ukraine's military operations have penetrated deep into Russian territory and controlled a large area of ​​territory, including nearly 1,000 square kilometers and several towns and villages. President Putin's tough response hinted that the conflict may escalate further, and even triggered concerns about the use of nuclear weapons, exacerbating the tension in the global security situation.

In addition, changes in the political field are also noteworthy. Trump's leading position in the election prediction market was reversed by Harris, who took the lead in key swing states. The unexpected events encountered by Trump seem to have accelerated this transformation, and the market began to discuss the so-called "Harris trade", but for us, its specific content is not the core. What is important is that the expectation of a non-Trump victory is generally regarded as a negative factor in the capital market.
#宏观经济

Amid the frenzy of interest rate cuts, the financial logic behind the "explosion" of the currency circle competes with global capital!

The interest rate cut policy is directly related to the supply and flow of money, especially because of the economic logic behind it and the dynamics of global capital flows.

First, we need to understand the economic logic behind the interest rate cut policy. Interest rate cuts are usually seen as an economic stimulus tool, aiming to stimulate investment and consumption by reducing borrowing costs, thereby promoting economic growth. In this process, the supply of funds in the market increases and liquidity increases, which provides more vitality to the financial market.

However, in the currency circle, this logic is more direct and obvious. Due to the nature of the digital currency market, it is more susceptible to capital flows. When a large amount of money flows into the currency circle, the price of digital currency tends to rise; conversely, when money flows out, the price may fall. This simple physical logic makes the interest rate cut policy an important factor affecting the trend of the currency circle.

So, why will interest rate cuts cause funds to flow into the currency circle? This is mainly due to two factors. On the one hand, interest rate cuts have lowered borrowing costs, making it easier for investors to obtain funds for investment. In the context of seeking high returns, the digital currency market often becomes one of their choices. On the other hand, interest rate cuts may also lead to increased volatility in traditional financial markets, causing some investors to turn to the digital currency market for safety.

However, interest rate cuts are not without risks. For a global economic power like the United States, interest rate cuts may cause funds to flow out of the United States, thus triggering a series of financial risks. In order to deal with this risk, the United States may take a series of measures, including exporting force to reduce financial risks. The existence of such geopolitical risks requires investors to pay close attention to changes in the global political and economic situation while paying attention to interest rate cut policies.

If you are a friend who has been chasing the rise and the fall, often being trapped, without the latest news in the currency circle, and has no direction, follow and check out my top mosquito net. I share the bull market strategy layout with my fans for free, just to increase my followers!

$BTC $ETH $BNB
#BTC☀ #宏观经济 #美联储何时降息？

Follow this week:
In addition to the intensive speeches of the Fed's veterans, there are also some economic data that need attention. The ADP small non-agricultural data can be ignored. Tonight's job vacancies are worth paying attention to, and then there is Wednesday's "service industry" PMI. and "Manufacturing" PMI, the highlight is Friday's "Unemployment Rate" and "Non-Farm Employment". From the current point of view, if the previous value is not revised, the probability of non-agricultural benefit is greater, while the unemployment rate is even higher. Pay attention, because the importance of the unemployment rate indicator has been mentioned several times. If the unemployment rate can be higher than expected and parallel to the previous value of 3.9, coupled with the current non-agricultural data, (provided that the pre-non-agricultural value is not revised) personally There is a high probability that it is a two-way positive, although this rarely happens.
It has entered the halving month + the pre-halving period, which is this week. There are more economic data and Fed officials speaking. I personally suggest that Heyue can stop for a while, although I really like to play out the contract.
The above content is not intended as investment advice, but is for reference only. Thank you for reading! #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥 #宏观经济 #宏观数据

QCP Capital Viewpoint: Although BTC is Bullish in the Long Term, Caution is Required for Short-Term Entry

On July 14, QCP Capital released an analysis post regarding the current state of the Bitcoin market, stating that Bitcoin is currently experiencing strong upward momentum, successfully surging past the key price level of $122,000. This rise is driven partly by technical breakthroughs, and on the other hand, a significant increase in institutional demand has played a crucial role.

From the market sentiment indicators, the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has rapidly risen from 40 to 70 in just three weeks, indicating a marked shift in market sentiment from 'fear' to 'greed'.

At the same time, institutional investment enthusiasm is surging; last week, net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $2 billion, clearly demonstrating a significant increase in institutional participation and indicating that institutions are actively engaging in Bitcoin investment.

In the derivatives market, a series of data also reflects the active market situation. Leveraged long positions have increased significantly, the funding rate for perpetual contracts is nearing 30%, and open interest has surpassed $43 billion, marking the first breakthrough since January of this year, further highlighting the market's heat.

However, the current Bitcoin price has entered unknown territory, making it difficult to accurately predict a short-term top. Fortunately, the options market provides some valuable clues. Implied volatility has not surged along with the spot price increase; although front-end volatility has risen, it remains below last year's average level, reflecting that the market is gradually maturing, and the Ethereum market shows similar characteristics.

Additionally, traders may prefer to use perpetual contracts due to higher option costs. Data shows that the one-month risk reversal indicator is stable, while the September and December indicators indicate strong demand for call options, suggesting that investors maintain a bullish outlook on the long-term market while hedging short-term risks.

Finally, QCP Capital advises that given the current high funding rates, along with the profound lessons from the liquidation incident in February this year, investors should proceed with greater caution. Although structurally optimistic about Bitcoin's upward trend, considering the current price situation, it is more advisable for investors to be cautious in entering the market and to wait for market corrections before making positions.

#比特币走势 #加密货币市场 #机构需求 #宏观经济