美联储会议

【Federal Reserve's 'Celestial Battle': The President's Mouth, The Federal Reserve's Legs】

Trump: "Interest rates dropped too little! At least double!"
Federal Reserve (adjusting glasses): "Data speaks for itself, Mr. President, you stay to the side first."

—— As Powell is about to leave office next year, White House insider Hassett steps up to state:
1️⃣ I chat with Trump every day, but when it comes to monetary policy... (whispering) he's just a 'keen audience'.
2️⃣ Our Federal Reserve is the 'Shaolin Temple' of the economic world, the President's opinion is like a worshiper's wish—just listen and look at the data!

(Netizen's witty comment: "This is like a mom urging marriage vs you finding your own partner—can respect, but absolutely not blindly follow!")

Now the suspense is here:
🤵 Hassett himself? The front desk advisor wants to become the central bank governor?
👔 Former official Walsh? Named to 'continue being the President's human economic encyclopedia'.

The hardest-hitting quote comes from Hassett: "Are the President's words heavy? Unless they come knocking with data and reasoning, otherwise… (opens the Federal Reserve manual to page 1) 'Independent' is highlighted and bolded!"

【Outcome Prediction】
Trump (madly hinting at interest rates) vs Federal Reserve (fixated on inflation data)
—— The final outcome of this American-style dialogue:
✅ Either the President tweets another 'bad review!'
✅ Or the Federal Reserve pulls out Excel: 'Do you think this curve is reasonable?'

(Annual workplace drama: 'Maintaining Independence Under the President's Nose')

🔍 Melon-eating Guide:
#美联储会议
#总统的意见算不算KPI
#下次降息时特朗普的推特已就位

It is worth noting that this evening multiple core executives of the Federal Reserve will deliver speeches: Federal Reserve Board member Mester will be the first to take the stage to release signals related to policy, followed by Federal Reserve's Williams who will also make public statements regarding the economic outlook.
Currently, there is considerable divergence in the market regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy direction, and the statements made by executives about inflation trends and interest rate adjustment expectations are likely to trigger fluctuations in market liquidity, breaking the current stalemate in Bitcoin, and prompting the market to make directional choices. Close attention should be paid to the dynamics of the evening speeches, with preparations for position adjustments and risk management in advance $BTC

Today, several officials from the Federal Reserve will give speeches. Despite the Fed's anticipated interest rate cut last week and the release of more dovish signals than expected, internal divisions have become increasingly severe. The voting result for the interest rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee was 9 votes in favor and 3 votes against — the most dissenting votes in six years, breaking the Fed's long-standing tradition of high consensus.
After the Fed officials maintained the outlook of only one interest rate cut in 2026, investors are particularly focused on the speeches from Fed officials.
Additionally, the U.S. non-farm payroll data released yesterday showed an increase of 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. Overall, this employment report indicates that the hiring momentum among U.S. companies has clearly weakened. The uncertainty brought about by tariff policies, as well as the high interest rate policies implemented by the Fed from 2022 to 2023 to curb inflation, continue to have a lagging effect that hampers employment.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will continue to issue the weekly CFTC position report that was not published due to the government shutdown, tomorrow according to Beijing time.
#美联储会议

This week is really tough to trade, the dark encryption week has arrived.

Non-farm payrolls, inflation, and Federal Reserve speeches, combined with the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting, all the factors that can ignite the market are squeezed into this week. This is no ordinary fluctuation; it feels more like a concentrated stress test.

The market will be pulled back and forth between tightening and easing expectations, with each piece of data pushing in one direction. One moment it's bullish, the next moment there's a crash, and a double kill for both bulls and bears is likely to happen repeatedly.

For those with unstable mindsets, it's easy to get washed out this week. For those who can hold on, when the next real move starts, they will already be on the bus. Those who get washed out will likely still be picking up shares at high prices when the market heats up again.

Holding up against this kind of market alone is exhausting. If you don't want to guess blindly and don't want to be led by emotions, I will give signals in advance for the next attack. Pay attention to Lao Zhang.
#加密市场观察 #非农就业数据 #美联储会议

$ASTER The big one is coming！！！！

Recently, Sister Yue's contract win rate has reached over 90%, and there has basically been no stop-loss on trades.

$ZEC Last year, she helped fans achieve a profit of 200,000. In this market, as long as you follow Sister Yue's approach and avoid impulsively trading, making money is really quite simple.

Whether it's a copycat or mainstream, Sister Yue has made it very clear for you.
The next round of copycats is about to start, so hurry up and get on the express train for the last surge before the year ends.
#美联储会议 #美联储何时降息？ $PIPPIN

The battle for the Fed Chair takes a dramatic turn! Hassett's 85% chance of winning plummets, and Walsh emerges as the biggest dark horse!

Former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh has made a comeback to become the favorite, with Polymarket data showing his nomination probability rising to 46%, while the Kalshi platform gives a high odds of 52% — meanwhile, Hassett, who was the frontrunner at the beginning of the month, saw his support drop from 85% to 44% due to concerns about his close ties with Trump jeopardizing the Fed's independence.

The key turning point came from Trump's clear statement: after last week's interview, Walsh became his "first choice", and both share highly aligned monetary policy positions, supporting aggressive rate cuts (Trump's target is to lower rates to below 1% within a year). Although Walsh has previously criticized the Fed for being "too large", he now stands alongside Hassett in the rate-cutting camp.

For the crypto market, this is a significant signal! History shows that rate-cutting cycles often lead to surges in risk assets like BTC, and Trump's calls for rate cuts have become a core standard for candidates 📈 No matter who is ultimately elected, expectations for easing are rising. Do you think Bitcoin will rebound taking advantage of this opportunity?

#美联储会议 #降息预期 #加密市场 #比特币

#美联储会议 $BNB Today during the day, there is a high probability of fluctuations or downward movement, with a very low probability of an increase.

At 3 AM, the Federal Reserve confirmed a 25 basis point rate cut. I looked at the BNB candlestick chart, which first saw a rapid rise and then a drop, typical of a "good news fully priced in" trend. By the time I got up to check the market, there was a slight rebound, briefly reaching 900u. I attempted to open a long position, but it quickly fell again, and I immediately stopped out.

This led to some reflections, which can be considered a half-hearted "after the fact" analysis. At least during the day today, it should primarily be characterized by fluctuations or downward movement. Looking solely at candlestick indicators is clearly insufficient; one must also consider the underlying logic.

First, after the Federal Reserve confirmed the rate cut, the short-term rise followed by a drop formed an inverted "V" shape, proving that large funds also believe that good news has been fully priced in. Funds did not enter the market, resulting in a rise followed by a drop.

Then we come to today during the day (which is also when Wall Street is resting). Without large funds participating, there will hardly be large trading volumes during the day unless there is a profitable opportunity. By profitable opportunity, I mean when contracts have accumulated a significant amount of funds, regardless of direction, a breakout can lead to substantial profits.

Finally, I checked the liquidation index for contracts and found that the amount of funds accumulated on both the long and short sides near the price range is not significant, making it unworthy to deploy capital for a breakout in either direction.

Therefore, I assume that during the day, in the absence of liquidity, trading will primarily be conducted by retail investors or robots, and it is highly likely to be characterized by fluctuations or downward movement. Thus, contracts should be shorted. Currently, looking at the 15-minute candlestick chart, the resistance level is at 900, and one should not short above this price. In the case of a downward scenario, the 4-hour bottom at 870 has relatively strong support, and one might consider taking profit or going long within this price range. As for the evening, as Wall Street awakens, we will need to observe further.

Note that the above is just a personal opinion and may not be accurate; it is for reference only. The purpose of writing this is to document and form a set of reference experience templates based on various situations, assumptions, and judgments for future use.

What is that saying again? — "History does not simply repeat itself, but it always rhymes with similar endings."

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is in place! Powell sends two key signals; can the market rebound continue?
$BTC $BNB $ETH
On December 11, 2023, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve completed its third interest rate cut of the year as expected, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%, with a total cut of 75 basis points for the year. Powell's statements at the press conference and the meeting's resolution concealed two core qualitative signals: one is a long-term rate cut path that is lower than expected, and the other is short-term liquidity support that exceeds expectations, leading to an immediate market rebound, although concerns remain.

1. Expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 have significantly cooled, with severe divergence in the dot plot

The latest dot plot shows that Federal Reserve officials have a median expectation of only one rate cut (25 basis points) in 2026, far below previous market expectations, and internal disagreements have reached a recent high: 7 officials advocate for maintaining the interest rate unchanged throughout 2026, while 8 officials support at least two rate cuts. This prediction is consistent with earlier assessments in the Shuqin program, implying that sustained rate cuts are highly unlikely in 2026, primarily because the Federal Reserve has raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 (from 1.8% to 2.3%), while inflation is expected to fall to 2.4% but still above the 2% target, and there has been no significant deterioration in the labor market, lacking the economic foundation for rapid rate cuts. Additionally, the meeting statement adjusted its wording to "consider further adjustments in terms of magnitude and timing," indicating that the threshold for future rate cuts has significantly increased.

2. $40 billion short-term bond purchases are "precise easing," not quantitative easing

In addition to the negative news, the Federal Reserve has thrown out a liquidity "sweet date": starting from December 12, it will launch a short-term Treasury purchase plan with a scale of about $40 billion, aimed at maintaining ample bank reserves and alleviating pressure in the overnight financing market. Powell explicitly emphasized that this move is not quantitative easing (QE) — unlike long-term bond purchases during the crisis to stimulate the economy, this time only short-term varieties are being purchased, and the pace will gradually slow, with completion and cessation expected before April next year.

It is noteworthy that the current market rebound mainly relies on short-term liquidity easing, but the limited room for rate cuts in 2026 means that the positive news lacks sustained support, and attention should be paid to the risk of a correction after "good news is fully priced in". It is recommended to closely monitor inflation data and changes in the labor market.
#美联储FOMC会议
#美联储会议 #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话

Summary of Powell's Speech (2): Current data indicate that the U.S. economy continues to grow steadily, with strong consumer spending and business fixed investment particularly supported by expenditures on artificial intelligence data centers.

The labor market is gradually cooling down: labor demand is noticeably slowing, hiring and layoffs are sluggish, and September showed a slight increase in the unemployment rate, with significant slowing in job growth, leading to a slight weakening in overall employment vitality and existing downside risks. Caution is warranted when assessing employment data, as some household employment figures and the CPI may be distorted by data collection or technical factors. The Federal Reserve's assessment suggests that recent job growth may have been exaggerated, and the cooling of the labor market is relatively gradual, with an expectation that net job gains may decrease by about 20,000 per month.

Regarding inflation, the overall level remains slightly above target. Services inflation continues to decline, but there is upward pressure on goods inflation, with some of this related to tariff factors. Long-term inflation expectations remain aligned with the committee's target, but inflation risks are tilted to the upside.

In terms of monetary policy and tool usage, the committee emphasizes that there is no risk-free path for policy, and there are internal disagreements on whether to further lower interest rates: some advocate for maintaining rates, while others support additional cuts once or multiple times. Today's decision received broad support, but there are reasonable differences on how to weigh risks. The Chair pointed out that the effects of rate cuts are just beginning to show, and the Federal Reserve will carefully assess subsequent actions based on a large amount of upcoming data, using "magnitude and timing" as criteria.

Regarding liquidity and reserve management, the Federal Reserve believes that reserve balances have reached a comfortable level. To support effective control over policy rates, the Federal Reserve will manage reserves through the purchase of short-term Treasury bills and has removed the total volume limit on standing repo operations. Related large-scale Treasury purchases are expected to be completed before April 15 of next year. The Federal Reserve emphasizes that these purchases are solely for reserve management and do not equate to a direct adjustment of policy stance, but the scale of purchasing may remain high in the coming months.

Overall, the Federal Reserve is in a favorable position: it has both tools and space, and will flexibly decide whether to adjust the policy rate based on new data in successive meetings.

$BTC $ETH #btc #美联储会议

$BTC The critical moment has arrived! 😱 Tonight, the Federal Reserve is about to reveal its cards, and the global market is focused on one action — a rate cut of 25 basis points is almost a certainty! ⏰ At 03:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday, the interest rate decision will be announced; half an hour later, Powell will speak personally, and every word could create huge waves 🌊.

Currently, market expectations are high, but the key is not whether there will be a cut, but the signals released by Powell! 📉 If the stance is dovish, risk assets might celebrate; if unexpectedly hawkish, be careful of a sudden market reversal… From a data perspective, inflation has been fluctuating recently, and the resilience of the job market remains, the real challenge for the Fed is: is this the start, or just a one-time comfort?

Beware of "buy the expectation, sell the fact"! History has reminded us many times that the decision point can become a turning point. 📊 Are you preparing to position yourself in advance, or waiting for a clear direction? Let's discuss your strategy in the comments! 👇
#美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 #美联储会议
$ETH
$ZEC

$ETH $ZEC $BNB
Dear friends, explosive news 💥! Tomorrow the Federal Reserve might make a big move!

Just received the news, it's not just a simple 25 basis point rate cut tomorrow! When Powell holds the press conference, he might directly throw a “big bomb” 💣: officially announcing the restart of QE in January 2026, with $45 billion 💰 per month, along with crazy short-term repos! This is basically his last big move to set the tone for next year before stepping down.

Looking at the trends these two days 📉, it’s all part of the plan: after yesterday's drop, today continues to smash down, obviously paving the way for a violent surge after 2:30 PM tomorrow 🚀. Once the press conference ends, the market is likely to take off directly, and in the following days, it will break through previous highs! Under this expectation of liquidity, coins like PU♥PP♥IES 🐶 that have community consensus are most sensitive to funding tightness and deserve close attention 👀. 金先生说meme

In short: for the coins you are optimistic about, feel free to smash them in the next two days, the more they drop, the more you should buy!

Do you think this prediction is reliable? Are you ready with your bottom-fishing list? Let’s chat in the comments! 👇

#加密市场观察 #美联储会议 #QE重启

#美联储会议 The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, bringing the rate below 4.

However, in discussions about interest rate cuts in 2026, among the 19 officials, 7 believe that there should be no rate cuts in 2026, 4 believe that a cumulative cut of 25 basis points should be made, 4 believe that a cumulative cut of 50 basis points should be made, 2 believe that a cumulative cut of 75 basis points should be made, 1 believes that a cumulative cut of 100 basis points should be made, and 1 believes that a cumulative cut of 150 basis points should be made.

Tonight's Federal Reserve interest rate decision script, starting to rise around 11 PM, rising until around 2 AM when it starts to drop, news published at 3 AM, a downward spike, upward spike at 3:30 AM, then a downward spike after a 4-hour line change, and then it starts to rise, rising until around 7 AM when it begins to drop. Take advantage of short-term opportunities. #美联储会议
$BTC
$ETH

Hope your leverage isn't too high tonight #美联储会议

Interest rate cuts late at night have triggered a comprehensive rise in market risk appetite!
$BNB $BTC $DOGE
The weakening of the US dollar reduces holding costs, further lowering the threshold for retail investors to enter the market. Funds that hesitated due to high interest rates are now regrouping. The short-term fluctuations of DOGE have already completed the cleaning of floating chips,
at this moment, macroeconomic benefits and community belief create a strong resonance—ETF capital inflows are expected, and the integration of payment scenarios continues to advance. Every low point after a pullback is a golden window period to get on board. After the noise, a window of value. After the noise, the market of value return never disappoints the steadfast watchers.
#美联储重启降息步伐
#美联储会议 #加密市场反弹

🔥Don't just focus on the interest rate cuts! The Federal Reserve may unleash an even more important "big move"

Tonight's Federal Reserve decision, aside from the interest rate cut, has a potentially market-shaking key signal that may be even more important than interest rate changes.

The Federal Reserve officially ended its balance sheet reduction on December 1. The reserves in the banking system have fallen to levels associated with historical financing stress, causing the key overnight financing rate (SOFR) to repeatedly test the upper limit of the policy rate range, indicating that liquidity in the financial system is beginning to tighten.

The real focus: a new direction for the balance sheet

The most important signal conveyed by the FOMC tonight may not be the 25 basis point rate cut that the market has fully anticipated, but rather a clear shift in its balance sheet strategy. The market is closely watching whether the Federal Reserve will formally outline the transition path to the "Reserve Management Purchase Program" (RMP) through its "Implementation Guidance."

In simple terms, it's a shift from "contraction" to "moderate growth." Institutions predict that this plan could start as early as January 2026.

As for the specific scale, the market remains divided, but the consensus is that expansion is imminent:

Some analysts expect that the Federal Reserve may purchase about $35 billion of short-term Treasury bills each month, which would push the annual growth of the balance sheet to over $400 billion.
Other forecasts are more aggressive. Bank of America and former New York Fed experts predict that to effectively replenish bank reserves, the scale of purchases may need to reach $45 billion per month.

What does this mean for the market?

This potential "technical expansion of the balance sheet," while different from the quantitative easing (QE) during the financial crisis, is still significant:

1. Alleviating liquidity pressure: Injecting liquidity into the financial system to stabilize the short-term interest rate market.
2. Impacting asset pricing: A plentiful liquidity environment is one of the key supporting factors for risk assets.
3. Establishing a new phase of policy: The Federal Reserve officially enters the post-balance sheet reduction era, and moderate growth in the balance sheet size will become the new norm.

In summary, tonight, in addition to listening to Powell discuss interest rates, one must also carefully consider every word regarding the balance sheet. Any clear signal of balance sheet expansion could set the tone for market liquidity next year.
$ETH $LUNC $STABLE

#美联储重启降息步伐 #美联储会议

📢【Tonight's FOMC Meeting: My Views on the Crypto Market】

Tonight, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision (likely a 25bp cut), but what the market is really focused on is not whether there will be a cut, but whether the subsequent rate cut expectations will be lowered.

There are a few points that I think must be noted👇

🔍1) The stimulus from rate cuts is limited, and the speech is key
• The rate cut has basically been priced in by the market
• If Powell leans hawkish, for example, hinting that "there is no guarantee of further cuts in the future," that could become a short-term bearish signal
• So the market may not react with "a direct surge after the cut," but more like "first rise then drop or directionally confirm repeatedly"

📊2) The short-term may see a "stop sweep market"

This situation is very common:
• A wave of buying occurs instantly after the decision, sweeping up the stop losses above
• Then it reverses and drops down
• The true direction often appears after the speech ends, not at the moment of the decision

🧠3) Suggested operational logic
• Do not go all-in betting on the meeting results
• Avoid new positions before the decision
• After the decision, look at the 15m K and speech sentiment before entering the market
• Wait for the market to give signals, do not act as a prophet

💬Overall View

The rate cut itself is somewhat favorable, but if the speech leans hawkish, the market's short-term sentiment will converge, and there is also considerable downside potential.
Tonight, no directional predictions will be made, only reactions.
#ETH #ETH走势分析 #美联储会议

I have been trading coins for eight years, and the most unforgettable crazy experience happened during the legendary wave of altcoins in 2017. $ADA

At that time, I focused on ADA, gradually building my position from $0.03, and who would have thought that in just three months, it soared to $1.2—my account skyrocketed nearly 40 times.

Every day, the first thing I did upon waking was to check the market, watching the zeros behind the numbers continuously rise, and I even began to consider buying a house outright.

But the most fatal thing was that slight greed—I didn’t take profits.

Later, ADA plummeted back to $0.2, with profits evaporating by 80%, and the house I was so close to buying was gone.

That experience taught me a powerful lesson:

A good buyer is a student, but a good seller is a master.

After eight years, I have summarized a set of profit-taking and stop-loss methods that ordinary people can use, allowing them to maintain a steady rhythm without having to watch the market all day:

✅ Profit-taking: I use the "stair-step profit-taking method"

Taking $1 as the buying price:

When it rises to $2: first sell 30% to recover the cost

When it rises to $3: sell another 30% to lock in most of the profits

Set a "trailing stop loss" for the remaining 40%: as long as it falls back 15% from the highest point, automatically liquidate

This way, you can ride the main upward wave without being wiped out by a single bearish candle.

✅ Stop-loss: I have only one ironclad rule

Single trade losses are not allowed to exceed 5% of the principal.

Immediately setting a conditional stop-loss at -10% after buying is like buying insurance for the trade.

Don’t be afraid of missing market opportunities—there are always chances in the crypto world, but if you lose your principal, you really have lost everything.

In eight years, I have seen too many people get rich overnight, and even more who went bankrupt during the wild fluctuations.

Those who truly survive until the end are not the prediction kings or geniuses, but—the ones who strictly adhere to discipline.

I once had to stop-loss on a trade, and then that coin doubled shortly after; my friends laughed at me for being conservative.

But three months later, it went straight to zero.

At that moment, I truly understood:

In the crypto world, making money quickly is not a skill; staying alive is the hard truth.
#ETH走势分析 #美联储会议 $ETH $SOL $XRP

Recently, there has been a growing rumor: the Federal Reserve may be changing leadership. This is not gossip; even China International Capital Corporation has started analyzing, saying that if Trump comes to power, he is likely to promote Hassett.

This candidate is crucial. If he takes office in the first quarter of next year and immediately 'doves', the dollar may weaken in the short term, and the hot money looking for opportunities worldwide could easily flow into the cryptocurrency market, which is high in volatility and liquidity. The market may be ignited very quickly.

But don’t get too excited just because you hear this. The enthusiasm brought about by policy expectations often comes quickly and goes just as quickly. Once subsequent economic data fluctuates or inflation rises again, the direction can change. By that time, the speed at which funds withdraw could be much faster than you imagine, and market volatility will only become more intense.

So what should ordinary players do?
First, don’t treat news as operational instructions. Hearing 'doves' and jumping in with a full position is like handing your fate over to news headlines. The transmission of policy is curved, not linear, and there are too many variables in between.

Second, focus on two key things. One is the first public speech of the new chairman after taking office; his tone—hawkish or dovish—will determine short-term sentiment. The second is several core U.S. data points—employment and inflation—these are the real guiding indicators of fund flows.

Third, always remember that strategy is more important than betting. Don’t gamble on a one-sided bet. Use logic that you can understand, hold onto your main position that you can manage. Keep a portion of your funds in reserve; if the market experiences irrational sell-offs due to chaotic expectations, that would be the time for you to act.

The current phase can be understood as: the wind is already on the way, but whether you can benefit from it depends on whether you are still at the table and whether you have chips in hand.

When it’s dark, having a light helps you see the changes in macro winds; when it rains, having an umbrella means you always have your principal and clear position management in the market. Stay steady, see you next step. #美联储重启降息步伐 #美SEC推动加密创新监管 #美联储会议