Guess what, I personally favor the second scenario!

Continued sideways movement until after January 21, followed by a rise.

After Trump takes office, the market may be boosted by policy expectations, entering a new round of increases.

Speculation: After the consolidation ends, the increase may be significant, attracting funds back.

It is also possible that the market anticipates a rally ahead of schedule, experiencing a large increase before January 21 followed by a correction.

The market may anticipate favorable policies before taking office, rallying up before January 21, and then correcting due to 'profit-taking'.

Speculation: The increase will be concentrated in the next three weeks, with a high probability of a pullback on the day of taking office.