一拳比特侠
Open Trade
Frequent Trader
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Key Observation Points:
1. Current Price:
• The latest price of Bitcoin is $98,808.
• Slightly down from the previous price ($99,004), but overall still in a high range.
2. K-line Pattern:
• Recent K-line is mainly 📈, indicating that bullish sentiment dominates the market.
• The latest K-line has a long lower shadow, indicating strong support below, with bulls re-energizing at lower levels.
3. Price Fluctuation Range:
• High: $99,252 (recent peak).
• Low: $98,650 (current short-term support level).
4. Market Sentiment:
• Overall, the price is in an upward trend, indicating strong buying power in the market.
• While rising, there is a slight pullback, but it has not broken key support, showing bulls still dominate the market.
Short-Term Trend Prediction:
1. Possibility of Continued Rise:
• If the price can steadily stay above $99,000, it may challenge the psychological level of $99,500 or higher at $100,000.
2. Short-Term Pullback Risk:
• If the price fails to break through the resistance at the $99,000 area, it may pull back to $98,650 or lower support at $98,400.
Technical Recommendations:
1. Short-Term Trading Strategy:
• Bullish Strategy: If the price breaks through $99,000 and holds, consider a small position to go long, targeting $99,500.
• Buy the Dip Strategy: If the price pulls back to around $98,650 and shows signs of stopping, consider buying the dip, with a stop loss set below $98,400.
1. Current Price:
• The latest price of Bitcoin is $98,808.
• Slightly down from the previous price ($99,004), but overall still in a high range.
2. K-line Pattern:
• Recent K-line is mainly 📈, indicating that bullish sentiment dominates the market.
• The latest K-line has a long lower shadow, indicating strong support below, with bulls re-energizing at lower levels.
3. Price Fluctuation Range:
• High: $99,252 (recent peak).
• Low: $98,650 (current short-term support level).
4. Market Sentiment:
• Overall, the price is in an upward trend, indicating strong buying power in the market.
• While rising, there is a slight pullback, but it has not broken key support, showing bulls still dominate the market.
Short-Term Trend Prediction:
1. Possibility of Continued Rise:
• If the price can steadily stay above $99,000, it may challenge the psychological level of $99,500 or higher at $100,000.
2. Short-Term Pullback Risk:
• If the price fails to break through the resistance at the $99,000 area, it may pull back to $98,650 or lower support at $98,400.
Technical Recommendations:
1. Short-Term Trading Strategy:
• Bullish Strategy: If the price breaks through $99,000 and holds, consider a small position to go long, targeting $99,500.
• Buy the Dip Strategy: If the price pulls back to around $98,650 and shows signs of stopping, consider buying the dip, with a stop loss set below $98,400.
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Predictions for the cryptocurrency market in 2025. Looking ahead to possible trends in the new year.
Prediction 1: Will Bitcoin break its historical high (108,000 USD)?
I think the answer is a very straightforward “yes.” Under current market conditions, a new high for Bitcoin in 2025 should be a high-probability event.
Prediction 2: Will Bitcoin break 150,000 USD?
The answer is still “yes.” I expect that during this bull market, Bitcoin's peak will be between 150,000 and 180,000 USD, so the likelihood of breaking 150,000 is high.
Prediction 3: Will Bitcoin break 200,000 USD?
This is a more complex question. While Bitcoin may reach 200,000 in the future, it will be challenging to achieve this goal by 2025. I tend to predict “no”; it may require a longer cycle or an extended bull market to drive it.
Prediction 4: Will Bitcoin fall below 80,000 USD?
There is a certain probability (about 40%) that it will fall below this threshold, but a higher probability (60%) that it will not. I believe if the CME futures gap (around 77,000 to 80,000) is filled, it is more likely to happen in the next bear market.
Predictions about other cryptocurrencies
1. Ethereum (ETH):
Despite recent poor performance, its explosive potential cannot be ignored once it enters an independent market.
2. Cardano (ADA):
Cardano is expected to break its historical high (3.1 USD). Last November, its price quadrupled in a month, making this increase a possibility for a new historical high. I believe the probability of its price reaching 5 USD in 2025 is very high.
Other key predictions
1. Will there be a third country adopting Bitcoin as legal tender?
I am optimistic about this and believe that more countries may follow suit by 2025.
2. Can Bitcoin become a strategic reserve asset for the United States?
Although this topic is gaining attention in US politics, it is quite challenging to achieve through legislation. I predict that the likelihood of achieving this goal by 2025 is low, but I hope I am wrong.
Prediction 1: Will Bitcoin break its historical high (108,000 USD)?
I think the answer is a very straightforward “yes.” Under current market conditions, a new high for Bitcoin in 2025 should be a high-probability event.
Prediction 2: Will Bitcoin break 150,000 USD?
The answer is still “yes.” I expect that during this bull market, Bitcoin's peak will be between 150,000 and 180,000 USD, so the likelihood of breaking 150,000 is high.
Prediction 3: Will Bitcoin break 200,000 USD?
This is a more complex question. While Bitcoin may reach 200,000 in the future, it will be challenging to achieve this goal by 2025. I tend to predict “no”; it may require a longer cycle or an extended bull market to drive it.
Prediction 4: Will Bitcoin fall below 80,000 USD?
There is a certain probability (about 40%) that it will fall below this threshold, but a higher probability (60%) that it will not. I believe if the CME futures gap (around 77,000 to 80,000) is filled, it is more likely to happen in the next bear market.
Predictions about other cryptocurrencies
1. Ethereum (ETH):
Despite recent poor performance, its explosive potential cannot be ignored once it enters an independent market.
2. Cardano (ADA):
Cardano is expected to break its historical high (3.1 USD). Last November, its price quadrupled in a month, making this increase a possibility for a new historical high. I believe the probability of its price reaching 5 USD in 2025 is very high.
Other key predictions
1. Will there be a third country adopting Bitcoin as legal tender?
I am optimistic about this and believe that more countries may follow suit by 2025.
2. Can Bitcoin become a strategic reserve asset for the United States?
Although this topic is gaining attention in US politics, it is quite challenging to achieve through legislation. I predict that the likelihood of achieving this goal by 2025 is low, but I hope I am wrong.
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Complete in a few minutes, permanent rebate, registration invitation code: IVEZBEA4, you can register directly in the Binance APP interface
or click the registration link directly:
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Invitation code: IVEZBEA4
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January 3 news, the Bitcoin genesis block was mined by Satoshi Nakamoto on January 3, 2009, at 2:15:05 AM Beijing time on January 4, 2009, with a block reward of 50 BTC. As of now, it has been 16 years, and the current Bitcoin total block height has reached 877566.$BTC
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Guess what, I personally favor the second scenario!
Continued sideways movement until after January 21, followed by a rise.
After Trump takes office, the market may be boosted by policy expectations, entering a new round of increases.
Speculation: After the consolidation ends, the increase may be significant, attracting funds back.
It is also possible that the market anticipates a rally ahead of schedule, experiencing a large increase before January 21 followed by a correction.
The market may anticipate favorable policies before taking office, rallying up before January 21, and then correcting due to 'profit-taking'.
Speculation: The increase will be concentrated in the next three weeks, with a high probability of a pullback on the day of taking office.
Continued sideways movement until after January 21, followed by a rise.
After Trump takes office, the market may be boosted by policy expectations, entering a new round of increases.
Speculation: After the consolidation ends, the increase may be significant, attracting funds back.
It is also possible that the market anticipates a rally ahead of schedule, experiencing a large increase before January 21 followed by a correction.
The market may anticipate favorable policies before taking office, rallying up before January 21, and then correcting due to 'profit-taking'.
Speculation: The increase will be concentrated in the next three weeks, with a high probability of a pullback on the day of taking office.
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Bitcoin's Stagnation: What's Next?
Over the past month and a half, Bitcoin's performance has shown a clear consolidation state, with prices oscillating back and forth within a range, resulting in overall low volatility. From early November to now, Bitcoin's price has basically remained in the range of 93,000 to 94,000, with a peak reaching around 108,000. However, overall, Bitcoin has mainly consolidated between 90,000 and 100,000 during this period.
Investor Psychology and Market Dynamics
This consolidation period has lasted about 42 days, leading many new market entrants to feel bored or even lose interest in market performance. However, it is worth noting that a boring market often signals significant investment opportunities. When market sentiment is low, it is the best time for investors to calmly position themselves. Once the market turns and experiences significant volatility, the best entry points are often missed.
Investor Psychology and Market Dynamics
This consolidation period has lasted about 42 days, leading many new market entrants to feel bored or even lose interest in market performance. However, it is worth noting that a boring market often signals significant investment opportunities. When market sentiment is low, it is the best time for investors to calmly position themselves. Once the market turns and experiences significant volatility, the best entry points are often missed.
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How to buy, figure it out yourself
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Another day of reopening $DAR 😍
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Today's panic and greed index has dropped significantly to 65 (yesterday it was 73), the market is still in a state of 'greed', falling below 70 for the first time since October 24, hitting a new low since October 15.
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The first quarter of 2025 could be a critical period for Ethereum (ETH). Historically, Ethereum has typically performed well in the year following Bitcoin halving. Here is a brief analysis based on data from 2017 and 2021.
Historical Performance Review
1. 2017
• First Quarter:
• Bitcoin (BTC) price increase: 8%.
• Ethereum to Bitcoin valuation increase: 470%.
Even with Bitcoin performing steadily, Ethereum's valuation nearly quintupled.
• Second Quarter:
• Ethereum to Bitcoin valuation continued to rise by 220%.
Performance continued to exceed Bitcoin.
2. 2021
• First Quarter:
• Bitcoin price increase: 103%.
• Ethereum to Bitcoin valuation increase: 50%.
Even with Bitcoin doubling, Ethereum still maintained strong growth.
• Second Quarter:
• Bitcoin price decreased by 40%.
• Ethereum to Bitcoin valuation still increased by 77.6%.
This shows Ethereum's resilience and potential during market adjustments.
Expectations for 2025
• The effect of the year following halving: Historically, Ethereum has performed strongly against Bitcoin in the year following halving, and 2025 is expected to continue this trend.
• Market sentiment: Current market confidence in Ethereum is low, which is a typical backdrop before a historical uptrend.
• Capital flow: After Bitcoin stabilizes, funds often shift towards more promising assets, and Ethereum is a primary target.
Key Focus
If Ethereum's valuation against Bitcoin does not show significant increases in the first quarter or the first half of 2025, its prospects need to be reassessed. However, based on historical data, the likelihood of a strong upward movement is high.
Ethereum's next wave of 'tsunami' may already be brewing $ETH
.
Historical Performance Review
1. 2017
• First Quarter:
• Bitcoin (BTC) price increase: 8%.
• Ethereum to Bitcoin valuation increase: 470%.
Even with Bitcoin performing steadily, Ethereum's valuation nearly quintupled.
• Second Quarter:
• Ethereum to Bitcoin valuation continued to rise by 220%.
Performance continued to exceed Bitcoin.
2. 2021
• First Quarter:
• Bitcoin price increase: 103%.
• Ethereum to Bitcoin valuation increase: 50%.
Even with Bitcoin doubling, Ethereum still maintained strong growth.
• Second Quarter:
• Bitcoin price decreased by 40%.
• Ethereum to Bitcoin valuation still increased by 77.6%.
This shows Ethereum's resilience and potential during market adjustments.
Expectations for 2025
• The effect of the year following halving: Historically, Ethereum has performed strongly against Bitcoin in the year following halving, and 2025 is expected to continue this trend.
• Market sentiment: Current market confidence in Ethereum is low, which is a typical backdrop before a historical uptrend.
• Capital flow: After Bitcoin stabilizes, funds often shift towards more promising assets, and Ethereum is a primary target.
Key Focus
If Ethereum's valuation against Bitcoin does not show significant increases in the first quarter or the first half of 2025, its prospects need to be reassessed. However, based on historical data, the likelihood of a strong upward movement is high.
Ethereum's next wave of 'tsunami' may already be brewing $ETH
.
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iChainfo monitoring, Tether transferred 100 million USDT to Bitfinex 20 minutes ago. Something big is about to happen, stay tuned⬆️
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Bitcoin Holdings Hit New Low: Bullish Signals Emerge
The Bitcoin holdings on Binance have fallen to a low of around 570,000 coins, the lowest since January this year, which is typically an important bullish signal for the market. Earlier this year, a similar situation led to a 90% surge in Bitcoin in March. If a similar increase occurs, the price of Bitcoin could reach $187,000.
Significance of the Decrease in Holdings
1. Increase in Long-term Holders: Bitcoin is being transferred from exchanges to cold wallets, reducing supply, which helps push prices higher.
2. Enhanced Market Confidence: A decrease in holdings often indicates a price increase.
Sideways Movements Present Opportunities
Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating between $90,000 and $110,000, giving investors more time to position themselves. Once the range is broken, the price could surge quickly.
Investment Advice
• Seize the opportunity to accumulate coins: The current volatility is a good time to position yourself.
• Pay attention to market dynamics: Exchange holdings are an important indicator and need to be closely monitored.
The Bitcoin market has immense potential; action should be taken early, or one might regret the hesitation when prices are high in the future.
The Bitcoin holdings on Binance have fallen to a low of around 570,000 coins, the lowest since January this year, which is typically an important bullish signal for the market. Earlier this year, a similar situation led to a 90% surge in Bitcoin in March. If a similar increase occurs, the price of Bitcoin could reach $187,000.
Significance of the Decrease in Holdings
1. Increase in Long-term Holders: Bitcoin is being transferred from exchanges to cold wallets, reducing supply, which helps push prices higher.
2. Enhanced Market Confidence: A decrease in holdings often indicates a price increase.
Sideways Movements Present Opportunities
Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating between $90,000 and $110,000, giving investors more time to position themselves. Once the range is broken, the price could surge quickly.
Investment Advice
• Seize the opportunity to accumulate coins: The current volatility is a good time to position yourself.
• Pay attention to market dynamics: Exchange holdings are an important indicator and need to be closely monitored.
The Bitcoin market has immense potential; action should be taken early, or one might regret the hesitation when prices are high in the future.
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Bitcoin holdings hit a new low: rising signals emerge
Binance’s Bitcoin holdings have fallen to the low point of January this year (about 570,000), which is usually an important signal of market bullishness. Earlier this year, a similar situation pushed Bitcoin up 90% in March. If a similar increase reappears, the price of Bitcoin may reach $187,000.
The significance of falling holdings
1. More long-term holders: Bitcoin is transferred from exchanges to cold wallets, and the supply is reduced, which helps to push up prices.
2. Increased market confidence: Falling holdings often indicate rising prices.
Sideways fluctuations are opportunities
Currently, Bitcoin fluctuates between $90,000 and $110,000, giving investors more time to lay out. Once the range is broken, the price may rise rapidly.
Investment advice
• Seize the opportunity to hoard coins: The current period of volatility is a good time to lay out.
• Pay attention to market dynamics: Exchange holdings are an important indicator and need to be closely tracked.
The Bitcoin market has huge potential, so take action as soon as possible, otherwise you may regret your hesitation at a high point in the future.
#2025加密趋势预测
Binance’s Bitcoin holdings have fallen to the low point of January this year (about 570,000), which is usually an important signal of market bullishness. Earlier this year, a similar situation pushed Bitcoin up 90% in March. If a similar increase reappears, the price of Bitcoin may reach $187,000.
The significance of falling holdings
1. More long-term holders: Bitcoin is transferred from exchanges to cold wallets, and the supply is reduced, which helps to push up prices.
2. Increased market confidence: Falling holdings often indicate rising prices.
Sideways fluctuations are opportunities
Currently, Bitcoin fluctuates between $90,000 and $110,000, giving investors more time to lay out. Once the range is broken, the price may rise rapidly.
Investment advice
• Seize the opportunity to hoard coins: The current period of volatility is a good time to lay out.
• Pay attention to market dynamics: Exchange holdings are an important indicator and need to be closely tracked.
The Bitcoin market has huge potential, so take action as soon as possible, otherwise you may regret your hesitation at a high point in the future.
#2025加密趋势预测
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Historic Large-Scale Options Expiration:
• On Friday (December 27, 2024), $14 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire, marking the largest options expiration event in history on the Deribit platform. These options contracts account for 44% of the total open contracts in Bitcoin options, which could trigger significant market volatility.
Maximum Pain Price:
• The maximum pain price is $84,000, meaning that at this price point, the losses for both bulls and bears are minimized. The market price may fluctuate around the maximum pain price, but if the current price (approximately $97,877) is far above the maximum pain price, shorts may face greater pressure.
High Market Leverage:
• Reports indicate that the market is in a highly leveraged state, which could exacerbate volatility, especially when prices break through key support or resistance levels.
ETH Options Situation:
• At the same time, $3.84 billion worth of ETH options will expire, suggesting that the volatility of the entire crypto market may be further amplified. $BTC
$ETH
• On Friday (December 27, 2024), $14 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire, marking the largest options expiration event in history on the Deribit platform. These options contracts account for 44% of the total open contracts in Bitcoin options, which could trigger significant market volatility.
Maximum Pain Price:
• The maximum pain price is $84,000, meaning that at this price point, the losses for both bulls and bears are minimized. The market price may fluctuate around the maximum pain price, but if the current price (approximately $97,877) is far above the maximum pain price, shorts may face greater pressure.
High Market Leverage:
• Reports indicate that the market is in a highly leveraged state, which could exacerbate volatility, especially when prices break through key support or resistance levels.
ETH Options Situation:
• At the same time, $3.84 billion worth of ETH options will expire, suggesting that the volatility of the entire crypto market may be further amplified. $BTC
$ETH
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