1. Situation Diagnosis: Bearish outlook based on multi-period resonance
Daily level: Extremely weak. The price is firmly suppressed by the EMA 200, with rebound momentum exhausted, and the bearish trend unchanged.
4H level: Continuation pattern of decline. High points continually lower, with the center of gravity moving to the 68,000 - 72,000 range.
1H level: 'Meat grinder' market. Moving averages are tightly bound with no direction, filled with two-way pinning noise.
2. Battle Plan
The current price (around 69,200) is in the middle of the range during the 'dead time,' with a very poor risk-reward ratio. Today's strategy is 'defensive counterattack':
Strategy A (High-altitude ambush - Recommended):
Position: 70,500 - 71,500 (top of the box + moving average resistance).
Signal: Wait for a 1H level appearance of an upper shadow or bearish engulfing pattern, confirm resistance before entering.
Logic: Follow the major cycle bearish trend, betting on the end of the rebound.
Strategy B (Breakout Pursuit):
Position: Effective break below 68,000.
Signal: A large bearish candle's body closes below the previous low.
Logic: The lower edge of the box is lost, testing the major level of 60,000.
Deadly Red Line:
No chasing orders at the current price! Around 69,000 is a zone for both bulls and bears to be trapped; do not engage in gambling trades.
No frequent operations when moving averages converge! Control your hands, it's better to miss out than to incur losses.
💡 Blogger's Note:
At this position, patience is more important than confidence. Let the bullet fly for a while; wait for the prey to hit the barrel (71k or break 68k) before pulling the trigger.
