Countdown to interest rate cut decision: 3 days! "Has the good news been fully priced in" or "Will it reach a new high"?
The countdown to the interest rate cut decision has entered the final three days, and the eyes of global traders are focused on this event. The interest rate cut is basically a certainty, and everyone is now concerned about "how much"—the current majority expectation is a reduction of 25 basis points, with only a few betting on 50 basis points. Therefore, "how much" will directly determine the trend of Bitcoin and Ethereum in the near future.
During these three days of countdown, Bitcoin and Ethereum will most likely show a slow upward trend. However, this is not due to any new positive news, but rather because large funds are positioning themselves in advance; the market is digesting in advance.
All the key points will be at 2 AM on the 18th—different rates of interest rate cuts will bring completely different reactions.
If an extremely unlikely event occurs and there is no interest rate cut in September, a sharp drop is certain, as expectations, once completely dashed, will lead to a wave of selling pressure.
If the mainstream expectation of a 25 basis point cut is followed, a "downward spike" is very likely in the short term. This is because some funds are betting on a 50 basis point cut, and if the actual cut does not meet expectations, these funds will stop-loss and sell off, causing the price to quickly dip before rebounding.
If the expected 50 basis point cut by a minority actually occurs, the situation will reverse, and the price will be quickly driven up. Those who initially thought there would be no cut or only dared to bet on 25 basis points will rush to buy in response to the unexpectedly good news, driving the short-term market higher.
However, to make the right decisions, one must first understand a point: the slow rise before the decision is not a real trend, but merely a "preparation for the interest rate cut"—do not blindly chase after highs. The fluctuations on that day are essentially caused by the mismatch between "market expectations and actual results," leading to fund reallocations, and have little to do with the fundamentals of cryptocurrencies themselves.
