交易侠小宇
Open Trade
3.4 Years
公众号：BTC1478
1 Following
171 Followers
52 Liked
9 Shared
All
Quotes
PINNED
See original
Three Moving Average Strategy! A Must-See!
The three moving average strategy is very suitable for the cryptocurrency market. Now I will explain in detail how to use it.
First, use three types of EMA (Exponential Moving Average) with different time periods: 25 days, 50 days, and 100 days. I will also use a five-minute time frame. Once these parameters are set, you can apply this strategy.
The first step is to identify the existing trend and then observe the movement of the EMA lines. All three lines are in the same direction and are diverging.
But remember, we will not use this strategy in a choppy market. We also need to avoid trading at the points where the moving averages cross. Remember, we need all three lines moving in the same direction; you need to find a candle outside the EMA 25 line. Once you identify the position of that candle, the next step is to look for an entry signal. Entry signals typically appear when the price pulls back and closes below the EMA 25 or EMA 50 lines. Let’s look at a specific example. In this chart, we can determine that we are currently in an upward trend by observing the movements of the three EMA lines. All three lines are moving upwards, and the candlestick chart closes above the moving averages. Next, you need to wait for the price to approach the EMA 25 or EMA 50 lines for a pullback, which can serve as an entry point. The next step is to wait for the price to bounce back above the EMA 25. If this occurs, you can open a long position. However, if the price drops and falls below the EMA 100 line, you should cancel your order and wait for other trading opportunities, as this may indicate a change in trend direction.
First, use three types of EMA (Exponential Moving Average) with different time periods: 25 days, 50 days, and 100 days. I will also use a five-minute time frame. Once these parameters are set, you can apply this strategy.
The first step is to identify the existing trend and then observe the movement of the EMA lines. All three lines are in the same direction and are diverging.
But remember, we will not use this strategy in a choppy market. We also need to avoid trading at the points where the moving averages cross. Remember, we need all three lines moving in the same direction; you need to find a candle outside the EMA 25 line. Once you identify the position of that candle, the next step is to look for an entry signal. Entry signals typically appear when the price pulls back and closes below the EMA 25 or EMA 50 lines. Let’s look at a specific example. In this chart, we can determine that we are currently in an upward trend by observing the movements of the three EMA lines. All three lines are moving upwards, and the candlestick chart closes above the moving averages. Next, you need to wait for the price to approach the EMA 25 or EMA 50 lines for a pullback, which can serve as an entry point. The next step is to wait for the price to bounce back above the EMA 25. If this occurs, you can open a long position. However, if the price drops and falls below the EMA 100 line, you should cancel your order and wait for other trading opportunities, as this may indicate a change in trend direction.
See original
Countdown to interest rate cut decision: 3 days! "Has the good news been fully priced in" or "Will it reach a new high"?
The countdown to the interest rate cut decision has entered the final three days, and the eyes of global traders are focused on this event. The interest rate cut is basically a certainty, and everyone is now concerned about "how much"—the current majority expectation is a reduction of 25 basis points, with only a few betting on 50 basis points. Therefore, "how much" will directly determine the trend of Bitcoin and Ethereum in the near future.
During these three days of countdown, Bitcoin and Ethereum will most likely show a slow upward trend. However, this is not due to any new positive news, but rather because large funds are positioning themselves in advance; the market is digesting in advance.
All the key points will be at 2 AM on the 18th—different rates of interest rate cuts will bring completely different reactions.
If an extremely unlikely event occurs and there is no interest rate cut in September, a sharp drop is certain, as expectations, once completely dashed, will lead to a wave of selling pressure.
If the mainstream expectation of a 25 basis point cut is followed, a "downward spike" is very likely in the short term. This is because some funds are betting on a 50 basis point cut, and if the actual cut does not meet expectations, these funds will stop-loss and sell off, causing the price to quickly dip before rebounding.
If the expected 50 basis point cut by a minority actually occurs, the situation will reverse, and the price will be quickly driven up. Those who initially thought there would be no cut or only dared to bet on 25 basis points will rush to buy in response to the unexpectedly good news, driving the short-term market higher.
However, to make the right decisions, one must first understand a point: the slow rise before the decision is not a real trend, but merely a "preparation for the interest rate cut"—do not blindly chase after highs. The fluctuations on that day are essentially caused by the mismatch between "market expectations and actual results," leading to fund reallocations, and have little to do with the fundamentals of cryptocurrencies themselves.
#加密市场反弹
$BTC
$ETH
The countdown to the interest rate cut decision has entered the final three days, and the eyes of global traders are focused on this event. The interest rate cut is basically a certainty, and everyone is now concerned about "how much"—the current majority expectation is a reduction of 25 basis points, with only a few betting on 50 basis points. Therefore, "how much" will directly determine the trend of Bitcoin and Ethereum in the near future.
During these three days of countdown, Bitcoin and Ethereum will most likely show a slow upward trend. However, this is not due to any new positive news, but rather because large funds are positioning themselves in advance; the market is digesting in advance.
All the key points will be at 2 AM on the 18th—different rates of interest rate cuts will bring completely different reactions.
If an extremely unlikely event occurs and there is no interest rate cut in September, a sharp drop is certain, as expectations, once completely dashed, will lead to a wave of selling pressure.
If the mainstream expectation of a 25 basis point cut is followed, a "downward spike" is very likely in the short term. This is because some funds are betting on a 50 basis point cut, and if the actual cut does not meet expectations, these funds will stop-loss and sell off, causing the price to quickly dip before rebounding.
If the expected 50 basis point cut by a minority actually occurs, the situation will reverse, and the price will be quickly driven up. Those who initially thought there would be no cut or only dared to bet on 25 basis points will rush to buy in response to the unexpectedly good news, driving the short-term market higher.
However, to make the right decisions, one must first understand a point: the slow rise before the decision is not a real trend, but merely a "preparation for the interest rate cut"—do not blindly chase after highs. The fluctuations on that day are essentially caused by the mismatch between "market expectations and actual results," leading to fund reallocations, and have little to do with the fundamentals of cryptocurrencies themselves.
#加密市场反弹
$BTC
$ETH
See original
Can you believe it? The combined market value of these four cryptocurrencies exceeds 2.5 trillion dollars.
The combined market value of these four cryptocurrencies exceeds 2.5 trillion dollars, higher than the GDP of 90% of countries worldwide and far exceeding 99% of publicly traded companies. They are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and Binance Coin. How can they, although invisible and intangible, be worth more than many physical enterprises? Is this a victory of rationality or an illusion created by the crowd? How should we view their value? Why do people collectively believe in certain things? These four coins represent four distinctly different value logics.
Bitcoin — Genesis, Scarcity, and Faith. The legend of Bitcoin begins with Satoshi Nakamoto and the unchangeable limit of 21 million coins; its scarcity is written into the code, unaffected by any institution, hence it is called digital gold. More importantly, it is the pioneer of decentralization, just like Van Gogh and his starry night, with countless replicas, but only one original. Economically, it stands on supply and demand. Financially, it has become a hedge asset against inflation. Philosophically, it is an experiment of faith. Every change in the history of currency is a transfer of consensus, from shells to gold to paper money, and now to Bitcoin; its value stems from innovation, absolute scarcity, and global consensus. Thus, from being worth nothing to a million each, to a market value exceeding 2 trillion, it has become the brightest jewel in the crown of cryptocurrency. However, Bitcoin is more like a concept, with limited practical functionality.
Bitcoin — Genesis, Scarcity, and Faith. The legend of Bitcoin begins with Satoshi Nakamoto and the unchangeable limit of 21 million coins; its scarcity is written into the code, unaffected by any institution, hence it is called digital gold. More importantly, it is the pioneer of decentralization, just like Van Gogh and his starry night, with countless replicas, but only one original. Economically, it stands on supply and demand. Financially, it has become a hedge asset against inflation. Philosophically, it is an experiment of faith. Every change in the history of currency is a transfer of consensus, from shells to gold to paper money, and now to Bitcoin; its value stems from innovation, absolute scarcity, and global consensus. Thus, from being worth nothing to a million each, to a market value exceeding 2 trillion, it has become the brightest jewel in the crown of cryptocurrency. However, Bitcoin is more like a concept, with limited practical functionality.
See original
B⭕️ Grand Stage If you have a dream, come here
The past few days have been exceptionally lively
Some are mired in the “non-farm” troubles
Some are taking off with the momentum of “PPI”
Tonight’s “CPI” is hitting hard, where should we go from here?
#BNB创新高 $BTC
$ETH
The past few days have been exceptionally lively
Some are mired in the “non-farm” troubles
Some are taking off with the momentum of “PPI”
Tonight’s “CPI” is hitting hard, where should we go from here?
#BNB创新高 $BTC
$ETH
See original
The crypto market is full of randomness; without a plan and rules, you will inevitably be completely exposed to risks. A clear trading plan is not only the foundation for profit but also the only barrier against emotional trading.
Why is planning more important than predicting?
Listen to A Yu tell you:
1. Predictions are uncontrollable, plans can be implemented:
Market conditions are unpredictable, but personal actions are controllable. A plan is the only "certainty anchor" in an uncertain market.
2. Lack of planning leads to emotional trading:
When the market fluctuates, a lack of preset rules can easily lead to being swept away by fear and greed, resulting in irrational decisions.
3. Plans are the foundation for review:
Without a clear plan, it is impossible to objectively evaluate the correctness of trades, let alone optimize and improve.
How to formulate a high-quality trading plan?
1. Define entry conditions clearly:
For example, a price breakout at a key resistance level with corresponding increased trading volume; or a clear bullish signal from fundamentals.
2. Set stop-losses in advance:
Before opening a position, determine the maximum acceptable loss; once the stop-loss point is written into the plan, execute it unconditionally.
3. Set goals and take profit:
Define target prices as exit criteria, use a phased take-profit strategy to lock in profits while retaining upside potential.
4. Record the execution process:
Keep a detailed record of the execution of the plan to provide a basis for future reviews and optimizations.
Common mistakes to avoid:
1. Temporarily modifying the plan:
Arbitrarily adjusting the plan when market conditions change is equivalent to having no plan from the start.
2. Vague planning:
Statements like "If it feels like it won't go up, sell" are not actionable; conditions need to be quantified and clarified.
3. Ignoring capital management:
A quality plan not only includes market logic but also integrates position control and risk management rules.
Although the market is unpredictable, rules can be steadfast. A plan is not a constraint but a prerequisite for calm trading; rules are not limitations but armor against market chaos. True trading experts do not always make correct judgments, but even when they make mistakes, they can rely on plans and rules to protect their capital and retain growth potential.
May you not be blind or impulsive in your future trading; may every action have a trace to follow, and every move have a principle to rely on.
#纳斯达克代币化交易提案
$BTC
$ETH
Why is planning more important than predicting?
Listen to A Yu tell you:
1. Predictions are uncontrollable, plans can be implemented:
Market conditions are unpredictable, but personal actions are controllable. A plan is the only "certainty anchor" in an uncertain market.
2. Lack of planning leads to emotional trading:
When the market fluctuates, a lack of preset rules can easily lead to being swept away by fear and greed, resulting in irrational decisions.
3. Plans are the foundation for review:
Without a clear plan, it is impossible to objectively evaluate the correctness of trades, let alone optimize and improve.
How to formulate a high-quality trading plan?
1. Define entry conditions clearly:
For example, a price breakout at a key resistance level with corresponding increased trading volume; or a clear bullish signal from fundamentals.
2. Set stop-losses in advance:
Before opening a position, determine the maximum acceptable loss; once the stop-loss point is written into the plan, execute it unconditionally.
3. Set goals and take profit:
Define target prices as exit criteria, use a phased take-profit strategy to lock in profits while retaining upside potential.
4. Record the execution process:
Keep a detailed record of the execution of the plan to provide a basis for future reviews and optimizations.
Common mistakes to avoid:
1. Temporarily modifying the plan:
Arbitrarily adjusting the plan when market conditions change is equivalent to having no plan from the start.
2. Vague planning:
Statements like "If it feels like it won't go up, sell" are not actionable; conditions need to be quantified and clarified.
3. Ignoring capital management:
A quality plan not only includes market logic but also integrates position control and risk management rules.
Although the market is unpredictable, rules can be steadfast. A plan is not a constraint but a prerequisite for calm trading; rules are not limitations but armor against market chaos. True trading experts do not always make correct judgments, but even when they make mistakes, they can rely on plans and rules to protect their capital and retain growth potential.
May you not be blind or impulsive in your future trading; may every action have a trace to follow, and every move have a principle to rely on.
#纳斯达克代币化交易提案
$BTC
$ETH
See original
Three Moving Average Strategy September 5th ETH Practical Explanation
Coin ETH Time September 5th 17:35
Entry point 4387 Take profit point 4437
On September 5th, using the three moving average strategy, we successfully found an opportunity in ETH and ultimately gained 50 points, and left calmly before the shooting star appeared.
Now, let's explain how to use the three moving average strategy in practice based on the actual market.
On September 5th at 17:30, we can see that the trend is a typical three moving average bullish trend. At this time, we only need to wait for the price to pull back to near the 25-day and 50-day moving averages, and then we can enter a long position.
When the time reaches 17:35, we can see that the price starts to rebound when it pulls back to the 50-day moving average and breaks through the 25-day moving average. At this point, Ah Yu also decisively entered a long position.
Entry point 4387 Take profit point 4437
On September 5th, using the three moving average strategy, we successfully found an opportunity in ETH and ultimately gained 50 points, and left calmly before the shooting star appeared.
Now, let's explain how to use the three moving average strategy in practice based on the actual market.
On September 5th at 17:30, we can see that the trend is a typical three moving average bullish trend. At this time, we only need to wait for the price to pull back to near the 25-day and 50-day moving averages, and then we can enter a long position.
When the time reaches 17:35, we can see that the price starts to rebound when it pulls back to the 50-day moving average and breaks through the 25-day moving average. At this point, Ah Yu also decisively entered a long position.
See original
Preparatory Work Before Learning Trading: Have You Done It?
Many beginners, when they first get into trading, react by wanting to learn candlestick patterns, indicators, and various strategies. This is not wrong. However, if you do not do some preparatory work before truly learning, you will often take many detours. Preparatory work is like laying a foundation before building a house; it may seem time-consuming but can determine whether you can build a tall building later. Why emphasize this point? Because I have seen too many students rush in with enthusiasm but are soon hit by reality, such as not having time, not having funds, or even lacking the right mindset to learn. Preparing for the technical aspects of learning is not just a matter of casual effort; it requires long-term persistence. By preparing these conditions, you can not only avoid taking detours but also learn faster and more steadily. Below, I will share the key preparatory work. The last point is particularly important.
See original
How to Cultivate the Mindset of a Master
Recently, many students have discussed mindset issues with Ayu. Today, I will briefly analyze it for everyone here.
Currently, most students are in a state of "long-term struggle with myself"—when there is a slight reverse fluctuation during the process of trading, they start to feel anxious. When they encounter losses, they fantasize about fighting back, which leads to further losses. If luck is on their side and they catch the right direction, they worry about entering late, causing them to miss out on potential gains, ultimately falling into a long-term state of self-contradiction, self-doubt, and internal strife.
At this point, we need to learn the mindset of "I would rather be myself"; this is also an important turning point before becoming a master—when we have formulated a strategy that suits us, clarified the entry and exit points, and validated it, we need to stick to ourselves, maintain our original intention, and not waver, only then can we break the downward trend.
When you finally reach enlightenment and reconcile with the part of yourself that made wrong decisions, you can open the door to a new world—"Only today do I know who I am". At this stage, you can completely free yourself from inner turmoil and external distractions, with a calm mind, making each of your operations logical and evidence-based, facing losses with composure, winning with ease, achieving a clear self-awareness.
Trading is like this, and so is life; both start from confusion, self-doubt, and internal conflict, moving towards the determination of "Only today do I know who I am". Throughout this process, Ayu will continue to accompany everyone, wishing that your trading journey and life's path are smooth! Keep it up!
In times of uncertainty, you can ask Ayu. I am always here waiting for you.
$BTC
$ETH
#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC
Recently, many students have discussed mindset issues with Ayu. Today, I will briefly analyze it for everyone here.
Currently, most students are in a state of "long-term struggle with myself"—when there is a slight reverse fluctuation during the process of trading, they start to feel anxious. When they encounter losses, they fantasize about fighting back, which leads to further losses. If luck is on their side and they catch the right direction, they worry about entering late, causing them to miss out on potential gains, ultimately falling into a long-term state of self-contradiction, self-doubt, and internal strife.
At this point, we need to learn the mindset of "I would rather be myself"; this is also an important turning point before becoming a master—when we have formulated a strategy that suits us, clarified the entry and exit points, and validated it, we need to stick to ourselves, maintain our original intention, and not waver, only then can we break the downward trend.
When you finally reach enlightenment and reconcile with the part of yourself that made wrong decisions, you can open the door to a new world—"Only today do I know who I am". At this stage, you can completely free yourself from inner turmoil and external distractions, with a calm mind, making each of your operations logical and evidence-based, facing losses with composure, winning with ease, achieving a clear self-awareness.
Trading is like this, and so is life; both start from confusion, self-doubt, and internal conflict, moving towards the determination of "Only today do I know who I am". Throughout this process, Ayu will continue to accompany everyone, wishing that your trading journey and life's path are smooth! Keep it up!
In times of uncertainty, you can ask Ayu. I am always here waiting for you.
$BTC
$ETH
#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC
See original
Looking Back: How Rate Cuts Affect Bitcoin's Short-Term Trends, An Analysis by A Yu
Historically, Bitcoin tends to rise before the implementation of easing policies but falls after the rate cuts take effect.
The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates for the first time in this cycle in September. Historically, Bitcoin tends to rise before easing policies are announced but falls after the rate cuts take effect. However, this pattern does not always hold true. This article will review the situations in 2019, 2020, and 2024 to predict the potential trends in September 2025.
2019: Rise as Expected, Drop After Realization
In 2019, Bitcoin rebounded from $3,000 at the end of 2018 to $13,000 by June. The Federal Reserve announced rate cuts on July 31, September 18, and October 30.
The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates for the first time in this cycle in September. Historically, Bitcoin tends to rise before easing policies are announced but falls after the rate cuts take effect. However, this pattern does not always hold true. This article will review the situations in 2019, 2020, and 2024 to predict the potential trends in September 2025.
2019: Rise as Expected, Drop After Realization
In 2019, Bitcoin rebounded from $3,000 at the end of 2018 to $13,000 by June. The Federal Reserve announced rate cuts on July 31, September 18, and October 30.
See original
In-depth Analysis of Signals in the 2025 Crypto Bull Market
Ethereum leads the rally, Bitcoin stagnates? In-depth analysis of mid-signals in the 2025 crypto bull market.
Recently, Bitcoin has dropped from a high of $124,000 to a low of
107350, Ethereum dropped from $4956, falling to a low of $4257. Recently, there have also been instances where Ethereum rises while Bitcoin fails to rise and even falls.
Many are asking: Is the bull market over?
So, has the bull market truly ended? What stage is the market currently in? Let's listen to A Yu's detailed interpretation.
What stage are we currently in within the crypto bull market?
The period from April 9 to July 14 seems very much like the start of this crypto bull market, with Bitcoin leading the rally, Ethereum following (still not breaking the previous high), and other altcoins almost inactive.
Recently, Bitcoin has dropped from a high of $124,000 to a low of
107350, Ethereum dropped from $4956, falling to a low of $4257. Recently, there have also been instances where Ethereum rises while Bitcoin fails to rise and even falls.
Many are asking: Is the bull market over?
So, has the bull market truly ended? What stage is the market currently in? Let's listen to A Yu's detailed interpretation.
What stage are we currently in within the crypto bull market?
The period from April 9 to July 14 seems very much like the start of this crypto bull market, with Bitcoin leading the rally, Ethereum following (still not breaking the previous high), and other altcoins almost inactive.
See original
Since Trump implemented import tariffs in April, the stock market has experienced a massive sell-off, Bitcoin has dropped by 10%, and Ethereum has plummeted by 20%, leading to a surge in global panic. In future forecasts, I do not believe there are safe-haven opportunities that could allow cryptocurrencies to rebound; in a situation where the global financial system is facing exhaustion, I also do not think the market has excess liquidity to help cryptocurrencies stop their decline. Unless there is a significant settlement of crypto assets during this trade crisis, it is clearly impossible to use these speculative crypto assets as a substitute for functional currency within the next decade. #美国加征关税
See original
Top hunters possess three genes:
1. Deep Sea Thinker – adept at using solitude to penetrate market noise, naturally immune to crowd frenzy, capturing cognitive discrepancies like a shark sensing blood;
2. Pain Transformer – turns the trauma of liquidation into risk sensitivity, loss records are the nourishment for upgrading the system;
3. Rule Believer – possesses a disciple-like discipline and cleanliness, executing signals like AI, unaffected by the fluctuations of profit and loss.
These individuals often display contradictory traits:
- Introverted and taciturn yet extremely sensitive to human fluctuations
- Averse to risk yet willing to heavily invest in extreme valuation zones – rational like a machine yet retaining controllable gambling instincts
The essence of the market is a battlefield of human nature; survivors have all completed "cognitive mutations" – their brains have evolved to possess an anti-fragile decision-making loop, deeply binding dopamine secretion with system execution. When you can watch non-strategic opportunities soar while your heart rate remains steady, you know you were born for this battlefield. #美国加征关税
1. Deep Sea Thinker – adept at using solitude to penetrate market noise, naturally immune to crowd frenzy, capturing cognitive discrepancies like a shark sensing blood;
2. Pain Transformer – turns the trauma of liquidation into risk sensitivity, loss records are the nourishment for upgrading the system;
3. Rule Believer – possesses a disciple-like discipline and cleanliness, executing signals like AI, unaffected by the fluctuations of profit and loss.
These individuals often display contradictory traits:
- Introverted and taciturn yet extremely sensitive to human fluctuations
- Averse to risk yet willing to heavily invest in extreme valuation zones – rational like a machine yet retaining controllable gambling instincts
The essence of the market is a battlefield of human nature; survivors have all completed "cognitive mutations" – their brains have evolved to possess an anti-fragile decision-making loop, deeply binding dopamine secretion with system execution. When you can watch non-strategic opportunities soar while your heart rate remains steady, you know you were born for this battlefield. #美国加征关税
See original
The Essence of Trading: The Art of Waiting
The market is like the deep sea, where top hunters are all 'waiting organisms'.
1. Timing Hunting - 90% of the time in stealth, just for a 10% high-odds signal, like a cheetah targeting the weakness of its prey for a fatal strike;
2. Noise Immunity - Refusing to participate in 80% of invalid fluctuations, focusing on the golden window within the cognitive radius;
3. Entropy Reduction Law - The period of being out of the market is actually cognitive energy storage, avoiding decision entropy increase due to frequent trading;
4. Compound Interest Foundation - Three years equal to one bull market's patience is far superior to a hundred times of risky speculation.
Waiting is not passive, but an active risk control:
- The stop-loss line is the moat of waiting
- The take-profit point is the sickle of waiting
- Position size is the conservation of energy in waiting
Twenty years of understanding: True windfall profits are not in the K-line, but in the ticking of the clock. When you can watch others celebrate while remaining as calm as an ancient well, and when non-systematic opportunities surge yet you remain as steady as a rock, you will know that waiting is the ultimate leverage in the world of trading. #掌握市场
The market is like the deep sea, where top hunters are all 'waiting organisms'.
1. Timing Hunting - 90% of the time in stealth, just for a 10% high-odds signal, like a cheetah targeting the weakness of its prey for a fatal strike;
2. Noise Immunity - Refusing to participate in 80% of invalid fluctuations, focusing on the golden window within the cognitive radius;
3. Entropy Reduction Law - The period of being out of the market is actually cognitive energy storage, avoiding decision entropy increase due to frequent trading;
4. Compound Interest Foundation - Three years equal to one bull market's patience is far superior to a hundred times of risky speculation.
Waiting is not passive, but an active risk control:
- The stop-loss line is the moat of waiting
- The take-profit point is the sickle of waiting
- Position size is the conservation of energy in waiting
Twenty years of understanding: True windfall profits are not in the K-line, but in the ticking of the clock. When you can watch others celebrate while remaining as calm as an ancient well, and when non-systematic opportunities surge yet you remain as steady as a rock, you will know that waiting is the ultimate leverage in the world of trading. #掌握市场
See original
BTC has broken below 80,000 twice recently, at 78,000 on February 28 and 76,000 on March 11. During the downward process, BTC is consciously testing the support level of 71,000 that I mentioned before (in the previous social media post). The lows are being lowered, and the weak trend continues. Does this mean a bear market is coming? Let me make a superficial inference.
The important driving force behind the rise of cryptocurrencies is regulation. Once the dominant player, the United States, opens up the legitimacy of cryptocurrencies, all cryptocurrencies, including BTC, will benefit. The benefits will come from increased trading channels and liquidity, and even hot money deployed in blockchain will increase. However, this regulation has not yet materialized in the U.S. Additionally: regarding BTC strategic reserves and the Bitcoin bill, I categorize them under regulatory policies. In this series of policy promotions, Trump is just a mouthpiece. Therefore, from the perspective of favorable U.S. policies, I have no energy to hope or expect. In other words: favorable policies landing means unfavorable outcomes.
Bitcoin is likely to drop to the 70,000 to 80,000 range in the coming weeks. Only when the tariff war ends and the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts will major cryptocurrencies return to their previous peak levels. Considering the impact of the decline in the stock prices of the seven major U.S. tech companies on market sentiment, if the U.S. government eases its strong stance in international trade, a rebound in U.S. stocks may drive a recovery in cryptocurrencies, but this is certainly not something that can be reversed in the short term. Therefore, a prediction of the 70,000 to 80,000 range is reasonable.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart forms a double top pattern and has broken below the neckline support at the end, which is indeed a long-term bearish structure. In defensive awareness, pay attention to the conversion of the 25-day moving average at 89,460. If the daily K-line entity breaks through 89,460, it is considered a bullish reversal. As for other medium- to short-term divergences, they will be digested in the 70,000 to 80,000 range. It is not advisable to trade frequently; if you want to realize the dream of wealth in the crypto world, you still need to continuously improve your trading plan. #掌握市场 #
The important driving force behind the rise of cryptocurrencies is regulation. Once the dominant player, the United States, opens up the legitimacy of cryptocurrencies, all cryptocurrencies, including BTC, will benefit. The benefits will come from increased trading channels and liquidity, and even hot money deployed in blockchain will increase. However, this regulation has not yet materialized in the U.S. Additionally: regarding BTC strategic reserves and the Bitcoin bill, I categorize them under regulatory policies. In this series of policy promotions, Trump is just a mouthpiece. Therefore, from the perspective of favorable U.S. policies, I have no energy to hope or expect. In other words: favorable policies landing means unfavorable outcomes.
Bitcoin is likely to drop to the 70,000 to 80,000 range in the coming weeks. Only when the tariff war ends and the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts will major cryptocurrencies return to their previous peak levels. Considering the impact of the decline in the stock prices of the seven major U.S. tech companies on market sentiment, if the U.S. government eases its strong stance in international trade, a rebound in U.S. stocks may drive a recovery in cryptocurrencies, but this is certainly not something that can be reversed in the short term. Therefore, a prediction of the 70,000 to 80,000 range is reasonable.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart forms a double top pattern and has broken below the neckline support at the end, which is indeed a long-term bearish structure. In defensive awareness, pay attention to the conversion of the 25-day moving average at 89,460. If the daily K-line entity breaks through 89,460, it is considered a bullish reversal. As for other medium- to short-term divergences, they will be digested in the 70,000 to 80,000 range. It is not advisable to trade frequently; if you want to realize the dream of wealth in the crypto world, you still need to continuously improve your trading plan. #掌握市场 #
See original
Despite Bitcoin's recent drop of 30% from its historical high of $109,350, reaching a four-month low of $76,700 on March 11, four key indicators suggest that this round of adjustment may have ended.
First, the current adjustment is fundamentally different from the bear market in November 2021. During the 2021 bear market, Bitcoin plummeted 41% from $69,000 to $40,560 within 60 days, while the current adjustment is more similar to the 31.5% pullback seen in June 2024. A true bear market requires at least a 40% decline, which has not yet been reached.
Second, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen from 109.2 at the beginning of 2025 to 104, contrasting sharply with the dollar's strength during the bear market at the end of 2021. Analysts point out that Bitcoin typically exhibits an inverse correlation with the dollar index, and the current environment of a weakening dollar is favorable for stabilizing Bitcoin prices.
Third, the derivatives market shows healthy signs. Despite a 19% drop in price between March 2 and 11, the annualized premium for Bitcoin futures remains at 4.5%, well above the negative premium levels seen during the bear market in June 2022. Additionally, the funding rate for perpetual contracts is close to zero, indicating a balance in long and short leverage demand, with no excessive short-selling demand typical of a bear market.
Fourth, market concerns are primarily focused on the potential government shutdown in the U.S. on March 15 and the bubble risk in the artificial intelligence sector. Several publicly traded companies with market capitalizations exceeding $150 billion have significantly retraced from their highs, including Tesla (-54%), Nvidia (-34%), and TSMC (-26%). This risk sentiment has led to a short-term adjustment in Bitcoin.
Furthermore, early signs of a crisis in the U.S. real estate market may accelerate the flow of funds into scarce assets. Analysts believe that factors such as a weakening dollar, historical data indicating that a 30% price adjustment is insufficient to determine a bear market, resilience in the Bitcoin derivatives market, market volatility from government shutdown risks, and signs of a crisis in the real estate market will all support Bitcoin's return to the $90,000 level. Currently, Bitcoin has rebounded from its lows, and market participants are closely monitoring the progress of U.S. government debt ceiling negotiations, where there are divisions within the Republican Party over defense and immigration spending. If an agreement is reached, the risk asset market, including Bitcoin, may react positively.
First, the current adjustment is fundamentally different from the bear market in November 2021. During the 2021 bear market, Bitcoin plummeted 41% from $69,000 to $40,560 within 60 days, while the current adjustment is more similar to the 31.5% pullback seen in June 2024. A true bear market requires at least a 40% decline, which has not yet been reached.
Second, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen from 109.2 at the beginning of 2025 to 104, contrasting sharply with the dollar's strength during the bear market at the end of 2021. Analysts point out that Bitcoin typically exhibits an inverse correlation with the dollar index, and the current environment of a weakening dollar is favorable for stabilizing Bitcoin prices.
Third, the derivatives market shows healthy signs. Despite a 19% drop in price between March 2 and 11, the annualized premium for Bitcoin futures remains at 4.5%, well above the negative premium levels seen during the bear market in June 2022. Additionally, the funding rate for perpetual contracts is close to zero, indicating a balance in long and short leverage demand, with no excessive short-selling demand typical of a bear market.
Fourth, market concerns are primarily focused on the potential government shutdown in the U.S. on March 15 and the bubble risk in the artificial intelligence sector. Several publicly traded companies with market capitalizations exceeding $150 billion have significantly retraced from their highs, including Tesla (-54%), Nvidia (-34%), and TSMC (-26%). This risk sentiment has led to a short-term adjustment in Bitcoin.
Furthermore, early signs of a crisis in the U.S. real estate market may accelerate the flow of funds into scarce assets. Analysts believe that factors such as a weakening dollar, historical data indicating that a 30% price adjustment is insufficient to determine a bear market, resilience in the Bitcoin derivatives market, market volatility from government shutdown risks, and signs of a crisis in the real estate market will all support Bitcoin's return to the $90,000 level. Currently, Bitcoin has rebounded from its lows, and market participants are closely monitoring the progress of U.S. government debt ceiling negotiations, where there are divisions within the Republican Party over defense and immigration spending. If an agreement is reached, the risk asset market, including Bitcoin, may react positively.
See original
Six Core Elements of the Trading System:
1. Trend Judgment: Identify the main market trend direction (upward/downward/sideways), trading with the trend increases the win rate, like sailing with the current;
2. Key Positioning: Identify support/resistance levels within the trend; these points of capital contention indicate potential market reversals or breakthroughs;
3. Signal Waiting: Patiently wait for clear entry signals (breakout/pullback/indicator resonance) at key levels; patience is a core ability;
4. Plan Formulation: Pre-plan entry points, stop-loss levels (core of risk control), profit targets, position ratios, and contingency plans;
5. Discipline Execution: Overcome emotional interference (fear/greed), strictly execute the established strategy to ensure trading consistency;
6. Review and Iterate: Regularly analyze trading records ◇ optimize entry signal selection, stop-loss settings, and capital management strategies, forming a positive cycle.
The essence of the system lies in reducing decision randomness through standardized processes and using mechanisms to constrain human weaknesses. Common misconceptions among beginners include reversing the order (e.g., finding signals before judging trends) and neglecting key elements (especially stop-loss settings and reviews). Professional traders convert probabilistic advantages into long-term profits through a complete closed-loop system. Each element requires specialized training and experience accumulation to ultimately form a personalized stable profit system.
1. Trend Judgment: Identify the main market trend direction (upward/downward/sideways), trading with the trend increases the win rate, like sailing with the current;
2. Key Positioning: Identify support/resistance levels within the trend; these points of capital contention indicate potential market reversals or breakthroughs;
3. Signal Waiting: Patiently wait for clear entry signals (breakout/pullback/indicator resonance) at key levels; patience is a core ability;
4. Plan Formulation: Pre-plan entry points, stop-loss levels (core of risk control), profit targets, position ratios, and contingency plans;
5. Discipline Execution: Overcome emotional interference (fear/greed), strictly execute the established strategy to ensure trading consistency;
6. Review and Iterate: Regularly analyze trading records ◇ optimize entry signal selection, stop-loss settings, and capital management strategies, forming a positive cycle.
The essence of the system lies in reducing decision randomness through standardized processes and using mechanisms to constrain human weaknesses. Common misconceptions among beginners include reversing the order (e.g., finding signals before judging trends) and neglecting key elements (especially stop-loss settings and reviews). Professional traders convert probabilistic advantages into long-term profits through a complete closed-loop system. Each element requires specialized training and experience accumulation to ultimately form a personalized stable profit system.
See original
The 7th Cryptocurrency Summit did not save crypto; it feels like tariffs are still the current barometer. Regarding tariffs, two points need to be clarified: first, will not reducing tariffs lead to inflation? Second, will not reducing tariffs lead to an economic downturn? Both of these points could pose a crisis for crypto. Rather than eagerly awaiting Trump to deliver, it is better to continue 🈳 #特朗普签署行政命令
See original
The highest realm of financial trading is essentially a resonance between one's nature and the laws of the market. A true master must first comprehend the threefold realm:
1. Know the laws - Understand that the essence of the market is a battleground of probability and human nature. Behind price fluctuations lie the resonance of supply and demand logic, cyclical rotations, and collective psychology. Only by peeling away the superficial noise can one capture the core contradictions (such as the inertia of trend continuation and the reversal of emotional extremes).
2. Know oneself - Achieve a profound understanding of one's weaknesses: Greed leads one to chase prices and sell at losses, fear causes premature profit-taking, and arrogance results in overtrading. Experts refine their emotions into rules through repeated introspection, such as setting mechanical stop losses and limiting daily positions, using systems to combat human nature.
3. Unity of knowledge and action - When cognition and action become as natural as breathing, trading elevates from "deliberate action" to "effortless governance." Calmly sensing the market's pulse, one can buy low when others panic and exit clearly when the market is euphoric; this is called "an empty heart." Spiritual freedom is the prerequisite for financial freedom. The market acts as a mirror, reflecting the depth of one's practice: if trapped by gains and losses, one remains a slave to volatility; if viewed with equanimity, both rises and falls become nourishment. The true initiation lies not in technical perfection but in a mind that is unattached - decisive as an eagle in executing strategies, yet calm as water in waiting.
The path of trading is ultimately an inward practice. When you can calmly observe the tide at the center of the storm, you will touch the ultimate law of the coexistence of wealth and one's nature.
1. Know the laws - Understand that the essence of the market is a battleground of probability and human nature. Behind price fluctuations lie the resonance of supply and demand logic, cyclical rotations, and collective psychology. Only by peeling away the superficial noise can one capture the core contradictions (such as the inertia of trend continuation and the reversal of emotional extremes).
2. Know oneself - Achieve a profound understanding of one's weaknesses: Greed leads one to chase prices and sell at losses, fear causes premature profit-taking, and arrogance results in overtrading. Experts refine their emotions into rules through repeated introspection, such as setting mechanical stop losses and limiting daily positions, using systems to combat human nature.
3. Unity of knowledge and action - When cognition and action become as natural as breathing, trading elevates from "deliberate action" to "effortless governance." Calmly sensing the market's pulse, one can buy low when others panic and exit clearly when the market is euphoric; this is called "an empty heart." Spiritual freedom is the prerequisite for financial freedom. The market acts as a mirror, reflecting the depth of one's practice: if trapped by gains and losses, one remains a slave to volatility; if viewed with equanimity, both rises and falls become nourishment. The true initiation lies not in technical perfection but in a mind that is unattached - decisive as an eagle in executing strategies, yet calm as water in waiting.
The path of trading is ultimately an inward practice. When you can calmly observe the tide at the center of the storm, you will touch the ultimate law of the coexistence of wealth and one's nature.
See original
After a significant drop this week, the market direction for BTC has become increasingly unclear. I have summarized a few contributing factors:
1. The theft of Ethereum on Bybit highlights the potential risks and vulnerabilities of centralized exchanges (CEX). This incident could not only trigger a bank run but also induce stronger regulatory policies, leading to a panic-induced decline.
2. The promised favorable policies from Trump have yet to materialize, followed by the failure of three Bitcoin reserve bills in Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming, resulting in a decline caused by political risk.
3. The market circulation driven by meme frenzy, such as the popularity of TRUMP. Additionally, a series of meme coin scandals have triggered a crisis of trust in crypto, such as the LIBRA Milei incident. This decline is attributed to a lack of trust in crypto.
4. The continuous outflow of spot ETFs, with a net outflow reaching as high as 600 million dollars last week. This decline is due to liquidity exhaustion leading to pessimism.
5. Tariffs. I believe news about U.S. tariffs has been rampant, and I don’t need to elaborate further. This should be categorized as a panic decline brought about by macro-level factors.
I personally believe that BTC needs to test the critical support level at 71,000. In other words, the market's pullback will continue. Are you scared?
1. The theft of Ethereum on Bybit highlights the potential risks and vulnerabilities of centralized exchanges (CEX). This incident could not only trigger a bank run but also induce stronger regulatory policies, leading to a panic-induced decline.
2. The promised favorable policies from Trump have yet to materialize, followed by the failure of three Bitcoin reserve bills in Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming, resulting in a decline caused by political risk.
3. The market circulation driven by meme frenzy, such as the popularity of TRUMP. Additionally, a series of meme coin scandals have triggered a crisis of trust in crypto, such as the LIBRA Milei incident. This decline is attributed to a lack of trust in crypto.
4. The continuous outflow of spot ETFs, with a net outflow reaching as high as 600 million dollars last week. This decline is due to liquidity exhaustion leading to pessimism.
5. Tariffs. I believe news about U.S. tariffs has been rampant, and I don’t need to elaborate further. This should be categorized as a panic decline brought about by macro-level factors.
I personally believe that BTC needs to test the critical support level at 71,000. In other words, the market's pullback will continue. Are you scared?
See original
No need for ridiculous ranges, we aren't short on those few points, let's go in directly, now, at this moment, with ETH
Login to explore more contents