On November 21, the decline in virtual currencies continued to expand, with another plunge occurring during the trading session. Among them, Bitcoin briefly fell below the 82,000 USD mark, hitting a low of 81,111 USD, setting a new low since April 7, with a maximum drop of 11,000 USD in 24 hours, before recovering somewhat. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at 83,973 USD, down over 9%.
Aside from Bitcoin, Ethereum fell by 10.8%, SOL fell by 11.7%, XRP fell by 10.5%, Dogecoin fell by 11.6%, and ADA fell by 13.3%.
Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation of cryptocurrency contracts reached 1.914 billion USD, with the number of liquidations reaching 392,000 people. Among them, long liquidations amounted to 1.78 billion USD, and short liquidations totaled 130 million USD. The largest single liquidation occurred in Hyperliquid-BTC, valued at 36.7828 million USD.
Recently, Bitcoin has continued to plummet, erasing all its gains for the year. Year-to-date, Bitcoin has fallen more than 10%, on track for an annual decline, marking the first drop since 2022.
Analysts pointed out that the significant cooling of expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut and concerns about the artificial intelligence bubble have become the two major headwinds facing cryptocurrencies and risk assets before the end of the year.
On November 20, local time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the employment report. Non-farm payrolls in the U.S. unexpectedly increased by 119,000 in September, significantly above the market expectation of 50,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021. Additionally, the number of non-farm jobs added in July was revised down from 79,000 by 7,000 to 72,000; the number of non-farm jobs added in August was revised down from 22,000 by 26,000 to -4,000. After revisions, the total number of jobs added in July and August was 33,000 lower than before the revisions.
After the data release, the interest rate swap market continues to indicate that the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is low. Traders have increased their bets on a rate cut but still expect the Fed to skip a rate cut in December.
According to CME Group's FedWatch data, the market currently believes that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is about 42%.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Harmack warned on Thursday that financial conditions are currently 'quite loose'—with rising stock prices and easy credit conditions. In this context, further reductions in credit costs could fuel high-risk lending.
Harmack also mentioned that while a rate cut can be seen as 'buying insurance' for the labor market, 'we need to be aware that this insurance may come at the cost of worsening financial stability risks.'
The minutes from the Federal Reserve's previous meeting show that policymakers have significant disagreements on monetary policy. Coupled with the government shutdown causing key economic data to be missing, this complicates their assessment of the economic situation.
Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz in Canberra, Australia, stated: 'The Bitcoin price is currently very fragile and tends to go down. Previous bull market drivers, such as rate cuts... have failed, hindering the momentum for price increases. In other words, there is almost nothing bullish on the horizon.' Dawson estimates that the total crypto liquidation of long and short positions in the past 30 days was $8.25 billion.
Dawson added, 'The powder keg of tech valuation volatility' could cause Bitcoin to fall to $75,000 before the end of the year, although the price should rebound quickly from this level.
According to data from the online options platform Derive.xyz, the likelihood of Bitcoin falling below $70,000 by the end of the year has risen to 50% as traders ramp up hedging efforts to cope with further declines in the world's largest cryptocurrency. Additionally, the options market believes there is only a 30% chance that Bitcoin will break $100,000 in 2025.$BTC
The likelihood of starting with 7 is very high, continue to be bearish! What do you think? Feel free to discuss in the comments section.#比特币波动性