With the correction we've seen lately, it's normal for you to be wondering the same thing as me and half the world: has the party ended or are we just taking a breath before continuing? It's the million-dollar question, I know. And although in the short term things are more volatile than ever, there's something that catches my attention: institutions are still coming in strong. New ETFs, tokenization projects that are starting to make real sense, regulation that finally seems to be getting its act together... All of this could make this bull market last longer than we're used to.
1. Are we in a pause or has the bear market already started?
Let me tell you something I have learned over the years: corrections of 20-30% within a bull market are completely normal. Seriously, they are part of the game. What really makes the difference between "this is temporary" and "the party is over" is not just how much the price drops, but where the money moves and who is buying or selling.
And here comes the interesting part: nowadays, a large part of the volume comes from ETFs and regulated products. This is not like before, when everything depended on retail FOMO buying on Binance at 3 in the morning. Now there are serious institutions moving pieces, and that gives the market a different solidity. For that reason, what I see now seems more like a healthy consolidation than the end of the cycle.
Check here for the current price of BTC on Binance.
2. What is really happening? Let's get to the facts
The sentiment: from euphoria to panic in two news cycles
After the last highs, the market was clearly overheated. Everyone euphoric, everyone buying, no one wanting to miss the train. And then... boom, correction. Emotional sales everywhere, liquidations of people leveraged to the hilt.
But you know what? This cooling off is actually healthy. It helps you realize if you were getting into dangerous territory out of pure euphoria and forces you to rethink things with a cooler head.
Liquidity: ETFs are moving the market
Look at this: when Bitcoin or Ethereum ETFs have inflows of money, the price goes up. When they slow down or have outflows, you notice it immediately. It's that straightforward. And yes, lately the flows have slowed down a bit, and that is especially noticeable in altcoins.
But here’s the trick: if you look at the year-long balance, institutional flows remain positive. That is, money continues to flow in, just at a less frantic pace.
The macro and regulatory environment: finally some clarity
I won't lie to you, the macroeconomic environment is not perfect. But compared to previous cycles, we now have much more regulatory clarity. And that, believe me, is pure gold. It reduces uncertainty and allows the bull market to have more room without those regulatory scares that used to kill us.
3. Institutional adoption: this can change the rules of the game
Bitcoin is already playing in the big leagues
Bitcoin is no longer "that weird thing from the internet". Now it competes in market cap with giant companies worldwide. And most importantly: it is not just being bought by a few geeks like us. Pension funds, insurers, large fortunes... everyone is starting to include Bitcoin in their long-term portfolios. That completely changes the dynamic.
ETFs: the highway where big money enters
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are basically the easiest and most regulated way for institutional capital to enter. As long as these products keep attracting money, the bull run has fuel for a while.
If you want to understand if this movement is real or not, you have to follow these data. They are your compass.
Companies and family offices buying Bitcoin
More and more companies are putting Bitcoin in their treasury. It's not speculation, it's financial strategy. And this creates a type of demand that is much more stable and less emotional. For you and me, that means the cycle has more solid foundations.
4. Tokenization: the narrative that is serious (and that affects you)
Watch out for this because it is important: the tokenization of real assets is already moving more than 35,000 million dollars. And we are not talking about monkey NFTs, we are talking about banks, managers, and regulated entities using blockchain for real financial products.
What does this mean for you?
There are real use cases beyond "hold and pray"
The sector is becoming more stable
We no longer depend only on Bitcoin rising for everything to go well
5. Possible scenarios for 2025-2026: how to position yourself
Optimistic scenario: the bull market continues its course
Flows return to the ETFs, market cap recovers, and we continue to rise. Here the key is to stay calm, enter gradually, and please, don’t go crazy chasing big hits.
Medium scenario: consolidation in a wide range
The market stays lateral, with no major rises or brutal drops. In this scenario, your advantage lies in choosing solid projects wisely and staying away from anything without liquidity or fundamentals.
Pessimistic scenario: shift to bear market
Right now I see it as unlikely, but if institutional flows turn negative for months, we would have a problem. Here your number one priority would be to protect capital, not to try to get rich.
6. What you can do right now
Let me give you some practical advice:
Review your exposure. If the correction caught you with too much risk and you weren't sleeping well, it's time to adjust. Seriously, mental health is important.
Think long term. Institutional cycles are not measured in weeks or months. They are measured in years. Take a deep breath.
Bet on projects with fundamentals. When the cycle matures, substance-less tokens are the first to go to zero. Don't fall in love with a pretty logo and a whitepaper filled with fancy words.
Be careful with leverage. With institutions moving large amounts, the candles can be violent. Don't let a liquidation take you out of the game.
Follow the key data. ETF flows, advances in tokenization, regulatory news... these are your real indicators, not the 5-minute chart.
To track prices in euros and see how the market cap of your assets evolves, I recommend taking a look at the market on CoinMarketCap and the price of Bitcoin on Binance.
So, is the bull run over or not?
Look, the underlying structure remains intact. We have more institutional adoption than ever, tokenization is growing, and the sector's infrastructure is light years ahead of where it was in previous cycles. Everything points to the fact that the 2025 bull run is still alive, although now it is more selective and probably more volatile.
For you, the important thing is not to get it right if we are exactly in the middle of the cycle or near the end. The important thing is to adjust your exposure according to your risk profile, follow the signals given by institutional money, and decide if you want to position yourself for a cycle that could last longer than we expect.
The real question is not just whether the bull market continues. The question is: how do you want to participate from here?
By the way, I could be wrong, as this is a personal analysis.
Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrencies are high-risk assets and you can lose all your capital. Always do your own research before investing.
Check here for the current price of BTC on Binance
