12.15 Spot Gold Trend Analysis:
Driven by multiple favorable factors, international gold continues to show a strong oscillating trend. In the early Asian market, spot gold fluctuated around $4304 per ounce. Although there were fluctuations due to short-term profit-taking, the dollar index remains weak, geopolitical tensions are escalating, and the global central bank's gold purchasing trend continues, with three core supporting logics not undergoing substantial changes. Overall, gold prices remain stable within relatively high ranges for the year.
The weakening of the dollar index is a key driver for the recent rise in gold prices, with the underlying logic being the market's repricing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. Although the Federal Reserve has completed its third interest rate cut of the year, the statements from the December meeting were interpreted by the market as "less hawkish than expected"; combined with President Trump's public call to further lower the benchmark interest rate to 1% or even lower, market expectations for a continued interest rate cut cycle in 2026 have significantly warmed. As of December 15, the dollar index stood at 98.44, slightly up 0.1% from the previous trading day, but it has fallen for three consecutive weeks, with both technical patterns and market sentiment showing a clear medium to long-term weak trend, providing continuous monetary environment support for gold prices to rise.
In terms of short-term trends, last Friday gold surged before retreating, with significant pullback due to concentrated profit-taking at the close, ultimately settling around $4300 per ounce. However, based on trend structure analysis, prices are still within a strong operational range, with last Friday’s capital outflow being a technical adjustment. The core bullish logic for gold remains unshaken.
Intraday Trading Strategy
The overall operating approach is primarily to buy on dips, strictly controlling positions and managing risks.
• Long position layout range: Pay close attention to the $4280 per ounce level and enter the market at the right time.
• Stop-loss reference point: $4260 per ounce; if prices unexpectedly break below this level, immediately abandon the bullish outlook for the day.
• Upper target level: The first target is the $4316 per ounce resistance level, and further up to around $4340 per ounce after breaking through.
