杨易-加密日记

November 14 Summary by Yang Yi:
Intraday decline, Old Yang emphasizes rebound shorts! There was a sharp drop at noon! The overall direction is very important; before the evening session, southward to the 94,500 mark, 'Black Friday' has deeply hurt everyone's feelings;
Previously pessimistic, various short calls, blind shorts, mindless shorts!
Yang Yi is bullish, positioning for a rise 📈!!! Aiming for 98,000, which peaked at 97,377, also nearly a 3,000-point space. As momentum weakens, it will turn to shorts! The overall intraday positioning is indeed bearish! However, when it comes to segments, Yang Yi can be said to cover all bases!
👊 Next, over the weekend, a brief breathing opportunity, make some adjustments to your mindset to collectively face next week, and get positioned! Yang Yi has always been a leader in trends!
#加密市场回调 #美国结束政府停摆 $BTC $ETH $BNB

On the morning of 11.11, I almost reminded everyone in the form of the current price order to escape the peak! Detailed down to the segment! On 11.12, I reminded everyone to first look for a rebound, providing the precise rebound range, without breaking any shorts, summing up to a long-term 5000 points!
#美国结束政府停摆 #币安HODLer空投ALLO $BNB $BTC $ZEC

Attention everyone! The non-farm payroll report for the U.S. in November is about to be released! After a 43-day government shutdown, the first monthly employment data being published could cause significant waves in the cryptocurrency market with any slight change.
Join Yang Yi tonight to find opportunities in the market! Enter the chat room directly!
#巨鲸动向 #美联储降息 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH

December 16 BTC Trend Analysis:
The Bitcoin bears have exerted downward pressure as expected, showing no signs of reversal. The core strategy for the day remains firmly bearish, with the downward trend continuing. How much of the over 4000-point profit space from yesterday did you capture?

Today's Market Analysis: After experiencing an initial decline, Bitcoin rebounded to around 86500 but faced downward pressure again, highlighting the extremely weak rebound strength, which has not impacted the overall bearish trend. Any future rebounds will present excellent opportunities to position short trades.

From a technical perspective, the overall trend presents a weak downward pattern. On the 4-hour chart, the Bitcoin price has directly broken through the lower Bollinger band and is still operating within a downward channel. The short-term rebound was quickly absorbed by bearish forces, maintaining a complete bearish formation, with no signs of a bottoming out in the short term.

Recommendation: Position short trades directly around 86500 upon rebound, without hesitation, targeting the 84000-82000 range. Strictly manage your position size and trade in line with the trend.
#巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察 $BTC

Monday! The white plate feels like the hottest days of summer, with returns multiplied at night!
Not only should you eat meat, but you should eat big pieces!
BTC has risen over 4000 points this round, ETH over 200 points!
Short-term trading can be done at any wave～
#巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH

12.15 Morning BTC/ETH Trend Analysis:
From the 4-hour perspective, the price failed to achieve effective recovery after a brief stabilization at the middle track, instead exhibiting a strong downward trend with four consecutive bearish candles. The current price is tightly following the lower Bollinger Band, and all moving average indicators are consistently pointing downward, indicating strong bearish momentum. There is still further downward space in the short term, and the overall market leans toward a weak pattern.

Intra-day Trading Strategy
The operational idea is primarily to short on rebounds, strictly enforce stop-loss discipline, and control trading risks.

Bitcoin: It is recommended to look for short positions in the range of 90600-89500, with initial targets set at 87000-86000.

Ethereum: It is recommended to look for short positions in the range of 3180-3150, with initial targets set at 3020-2960.
#美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH

12.15 Spot Gold Trend Analysis:

Driven by multiple favorable factors, international gold continues to show a strong oscillating trend. In the early Asian market, spot gold fluctuated around $4304 per ounce. Although there were fluctuations due to short-term profit-taking, the dollar index remains weak, geopolitical tensions are escalating, and the global central bank's gold purchasing trend continues, with three core supporting logics not undergoing substantial changes. Overall, gold prices remain stable within relatively high ranges for the year.

The weakening of the dollar index is a key driver for the recent rise in gold prices, with the underlying logic being the market's repricing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. Although the Federal Reserve has completed its third interest rate cut of the year, the statements from the December meeting were interpreted by the market as "less hawkish than expected"; combined with President Trump's public call to further lower the benchmark interest rate to 1% or even lower, market expectations for a continued interest rate cut cycle in 2026 have significantly warmed. As of December 15, the dollar index stood at 98.44, slightly up 0.1% from the previous trading day, but it has fallen for three consecutive weeks, with both technical patterns and market sentiment showing a clear medium to long-term weak trend, providing continuous monetary environment support for gold prices to rise.

In terms of short-term trends, last Friday gold surged before retreating, with significant pullback due to concentrated profit-taking at the close, ultimately settling around $4300 per ounce. However, based on trend structure analysis, prices are still within a strong operational range, with last Friday’s capital outflow being a technical adjustment. The core bullish logic for gold remains unshaken.

Intraday Trading Strategy
The overall operating approach is primarily to buy on dips, strictly controlling positions and managing risks.

• Long position layout range: Pay close attention to the $4280 per ounce level and enter the market at the right time.

• Stop-loss reference point: $4260 per ounce; if prices unexpectedly break below this level, immediately abandon the bullish outlook for the day.

• Upper target level: The first target is the $4316 per ounce resistance level, and further up to around $4340 per ounce after breaking through.
#美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #比特币VS代币化黄金

The weekend has passed, and the rest is almost done!
In the new week, follow Yang Yi to find opportunities in the fluctuations!
#美联储降息 $BTC

From the market structure perspective, the bearish momentum at the hourly level has not fully exhausted, but the price has already dropped to the key resonance support zone. This area, combined with the previous dense trading zone, forms a strong consensus on market prices, and the continuous accumulation of volume further solidifies the support base.

The focus should be on the stabilization performance in the 90000-89500 support zone for Bitcoin. If this area can effectively defend, a phased layout can be considered, with the key stop-loss defense level referenced at 89000, while the upper resistance focuses on the 91000-92300 range.

From a trend structure perspective, the weekly upward pattern has not been broken. This pullback belongs to a technical retracement after breaking through the key resistance level, which is a healthy process of trend consolidation. The 4-hour RSI indicator has fallen from the overbought zone to a neutral level, and there are no accompanying continuous sell-off divergence signals. The price shows clear signs of a handover between bulls and bears and capital accumulation in the support area.

Looking ahead, if the price can stabilize in the 90300-90000 range and effectively recover the key level of 91500, it is expected to form a bullish confirmation pattern of 'breaking lows and rebounding.'
#美联储降息 #加密市场观察 $BTC

"Black Friday", brand discounts!
Short installment payments gradually arriving!
Harvest in advance, the rest is just decoration!
#美联储降息 $BTC

12.12 Evening BTC Trend Analysis:
Currently, Bitcoin is in a sideways fluctuation range, and the strategy must strictly rely on the breakout situation of the range:

If it effectively breaks below the support level of 92027, you can position short orders, targeting sequentially at 91360, 90650, 89530;
If it strongly breaks above the resistance level of 92715, you can cautiously follow with long orders, targeting sequentially at 93547, 94443.

Regardless of long or short operations, reasonable stop-losses must be set accordingly.

Cryptocurrency Market Sentiment Weekly Report: Fear and Greed Index Steady at 28, Market Sentiment Remains in a Low Mood

According to the latest data from Coinglass, the current cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index is reported at 28, unchanged from yesterday's value, still in the "Fear" range.

From the cyclical average perspective, the index's 7-day average is 23, while the 30-day average has further dipped to 19, highlighting a weak pattern of long-term market pressure. Although the sentiment indicator has slightly warmed from the previous extreme lows, the current value still remains in an extremely bearish range, confirming that the market has not fully digested the impact of the recent continuous declines, and investors' risk aversion sentiment remains strong.
#美联储降息 #加密市场观察 #美国非农数据超预期 $BNB $ZEC

12.12 Morning BTC/ETH Trend Analysis:

The current market is in a technical repair phase under pressure, and although the short-term upward channel has experienced a temporary break, the bullish momentum is in a continuous accumulation process.

From the four-hour cycle trend, the previous two rounds of increasing bullish candles have driven the market to rise strongly. The price directly broke through the mid-track pressure from the lower band area of the Bollinger Bands and subsequently tested the upper track pressure before experiencing a pullback. The current adjustment cycle is nearing its end, with the candlestick quickly stabilizing and rebounding after probing the mid-track support, and the long lower shadow pattern formed at the bottom fully confirms the effectiveness of the support below, laying a solid foundation for the subsequent bullish counterattack.

The hourly cycle presents a clearer bullish guidance, with the three tracks of the Bollinger Bands diverging upward synchronously. The candlestick oscillates higher relying on the short-term moving average, with significant bullish trend characteristics, and a clear and sustained upward rhythm.

Suggestions:
Place long positions for BTC below 91500, targeting 93500.
Place long positions for ETH below 3200, targeting 3300.
#美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH

Recently still fluctuating without change, learn to simplify complexity!
The evening mainstream still has a space of three thousand points!
Seize the opportunity, directly enter the chat room～
#美联储降息 $BTC

12.11 Evening BTC Trend Analysis:
With the catalytic effect of Powell's speech, the market has shown a short-term surge followed by a pullback, and the long-short competition is entering a critical decision-making point of intense rivalry.
Still looking at fluctuations in the evening:
It is recommended to set up long positions directly in the range of 89000-89600, targeting the 92000 level; if it does not continue upwards, short positions should be taken! Just grasp the back-and-forth!
#美联储降息 #加密市场观察 $BTC

12.11BTC/ETH Trend Analysis：

After the interest rate cut is implemented, the competition between bulls and bears intensifies. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates at midnight, combined with the impact of Powell's speech, the market experienced a surge followed by a pullback. Currently, the competition between bulls and bears has entered a critical phase.

Bitcoin needs to closely monitor the support at the 90000 level. If this level holds, the bulls still have the momentum to rebound; Ethereum should focus on the support at the 3200 line, and as long as the support holds, it can lay out long positions.

Core operational principle: Absolutely do not chase shorts at low levels!

Suggestion for Bitcoin: Gradually build long positions in the 90000-90500 range, targeting 91500-93000.

For Ethereum: Enter decisively in the 3200-3225 range, targeting 3280-3350.
#加密市场反弹 #美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH

At 3 AM, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is coming in with a heavy impact, experiencing the most intense divergence in recent years internally—among 12 voting committee members, 5 clearly support a rate cut, 1 is likely to follow suit, 3 are on the fence, another 1 tends to keep it unchanged, and 2 advocate for maintaining the status quo, with Powell facing a daunting coordination task. The market generally expects a rate cut of 25 basis points this time, but Powell will likely avoid signaling further rate cuts in January to appease the hawks, as predicted by Bank of America; he may emphasize that significant weakness in employment data is needed for further action, or clarify that the current benchmark interest rate is close to neutral levels.

Recently, trading related to DuoTou has surged, and considering the uncertainty of the early morning decision and market sentiment, I personally lean towards a pullback trend for Chonggao, with resistance levels that can refer to the morning point layout.
#加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐 $BTC $ETH

88% of the market expectations are placed here, a 25bp rate cut has long been a consensus! The real core game is not the rate cut itself, but the policy wording after the meeting - the characterization of the economic outlook, the description of inflation and employment, and the guidance on future rate cut paths. Every word can stir market nerves and directly determine the subsequent market rhythm.

Currently, market liquidity continues to be loose, risk appetite is rapidly warming up, and the window for a strong rebound has already opened! Tonight is the key battle, keep up with Yang Yi's rhythm, and enter the market on time tonight!
#比特币VS代币化黄金 #美联储重启降息步伐 $BTC

The Battle at 3 AM! The Core Logic and Layout Guide Behind the Market Movements on Interest Rate Cut Night

The big market has erupted as expected! Starting from 11 PM last night, the market began a surprise rally, and many traders must have sensed the atmosphere of a decisive battle—3 AM Federal Reserve interest rate decision + Powell's speech is bound to be a sleepless night!

The direct trigger for this wave of movement was the unexpected U.S. October job openings data reported at 7.67 million, significantly higher than the market estimate of 7.15 million. The data behind it releases a key signal: the cooling pace of the U.S. job market is significantly slower than expected, and economic resilience exceeds previous judgments.

The market immediately gave a gambling response: if the economy remains supportive, after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in the early morning, the pace of advancing the easing policy in 2024 may be forced to slow down, and some viewpoints even believe that this interest rate cut may become the endpoint of this cycle. Under this expectation, funds entered the market early to seize the favorable window period, while also harboring doubts about the subsequent upward space, creating the current contradictory pattern of "rebound before favorable news lands, but concerns about policy turning suppressing the increase."

Core operational advice points to the key: do not bet unilaterally before major news lands, and high-leverage operations must be completely avoided! The real trend decision will be revealed after 3 AM, and two core variables must be closely monitored: first, Powell's policy tone statement at the press conference (dovish/hawkish directly affects market sentiment), and second, the officials' interest rate forecast "dot plot" revealing the policy path for 2024. These two signals will directly determine whether the current rebound is a trend starting point or a fleeting false rally.
#加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐 $BTC $ETH

12.10 Gold Trend Analysis:
On the eve of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the upward trend of gold continues!

Gold showed typical volatility characteristics on Tuesday, initially dropping and then rising, quickly rebounding after testing the support level at 4170, showcasing a rollercoaster market within the day—although the market appeared strong, the continuity was insufficient, which is the core characteristic of a volatile cycle. It is crucial not to change the overall trading logic due to single-day fluctuations! Yesterday, during the European session, gold rebounded to reach the high of 4212, and I have clearly indicated: chasing after rising prices in a volatile market is extremely unwise; the upward process will inevitably be accompanied by pullbacks for accumulation, and a retracement to the 4190 line is a good opportunity for long positions. The market fully aligned with the prediction, and subsequently, the gold price precisely pulled back to stabilize in the 4189-4190 range, again pushing up towards the key resistance level of 4220, with bullish momentum continuing to be released.

Today, focusing on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting before it concludes, the upward rhythm of gold remains unchanged, with short-term attention on the layout opportunities near yesterday's low point around 4190 during the U.S. session, relying on support to go long.

From a technical perspective, the hourly chart of gold shows that the moving average system has gradually formed a bullish alignment with a golden cross upwards, and the upward momentum in the short term is still continuing. It is worth noting that after the gold price stabilized at the 4190 line, the retracement was extremely limited, with the lowest only touching 4189 before quickly rebounding, confirming the strength of the support below. Therefore, the operational thinking in the morning is clear: continue to build long positions above the 4189 area after a retracement, without getting caught up in minor short-term fluctuations, closely following the main line of upward volatility.

Long Position Layout: Enter the range of 4190-4195;
Target Levels: 4230, 4245

• Core Logic: The volatile pattern remains unchanged before the interest rate decision, with bullish alignment of moving averages supporting the upward trend; rely on key support to act accordingly, avoiding the risk of chasing prices and sticking to the main line of low longs.
#加密市场反弹 #比特币VS代币化黄金 #美联储重启降息步伐