The matter of the yen interest rate hike will definitely have an emotional impact on $BTC in the short term, but don't just look at the surface— the real drama unfolds after the impact.
My deduction is as follows:
In the short term (within one or two weeks), the market will first go through a wave of 'panic washing'.
The big coin may first drop to the range of 86,000 to 87,000, knocking out a batch of long positions, while creating the illusion of a 'breakdown' to strengthen bearish sentiment.
Then, the market will quickly reverse, pulling back above 90,000, even testing the pressure of 100,000 to 106,000.
Why? Because once the short positions pile up too high, a rapid rise will trigger a series of stop-losses, forming a short squeeze market—falling hard, and rising even harder.
In the medium to long term, BTC is likely to enter a wide range of oscillation between 78,000 and 118,000. There are two reasons:
The funding structure has changed. The early bull market was driven by 'halving + retail enthusiasm', but now big funds like institutions and sovereign funds have come in.
They don't like to chase highs; they prefer to 'buy on dips and sell on rallies', slowly positioning themselves in the range.
Sentiment needs to be rebalanced. When it's too high, many people are afraid to chase, profit takers want to run, and some even short the market.
The tug-of-war between bulls and bears makes it easy for the market to enter a dilemma of oscillation.
$ETH , $BNB will likely follow a similar rhythm, as the market is currently highly correlated.
The yen interest rate hike is an excuse for washing; after the wash, the market will gradually shift from 'crazy bull one-sided rise' to 'institutional slow bull wide oscillation'.
There won't be a daily crazy rise in the future, but rather structural opportunities where people dare to buy on dips and want to run when prices rise.
In terms of operations, don't panic and cut losses during sharp declines, nor blindly chase highs during rapid rises.
Learn to ambush at the lower end of the range and reduce positions in batches at the upper end; you will be much more composed than most people.
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