Don't just stare at the K-line fluctuations! The ongoing 'perpetual contract' battle next door between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for nearly two years, which is even more thrilling than staying up late watching the market. One side has lost all their capital, while the other seems to have floating profits but is burning through their margin. Understanding this game of chess is more useful than catching ten short-term opportunities!
Let's first talk about how tragic Ukraine's 'liquidation order' is. Initially shouting 'high leverage to resist losses', the result now is that they are about to lose their shorts. The core 'asset package' of territory has directly shrunk by one-fifth. The four eastern provinces, like Crimea, have been 'secured' by the Russian side, and 80% of the coastline has been lost, equivalent to having half of their 'trading ports' shut down.
The more serious issue is the 'liquidity exhaustion.' Before the war, there were 43 million 'users,' but now only 30 million remain, with over 10 million directly 'withdrawing funds' to flee overseas. The 'core computing power' of young adults has suffered heavy casualties, and conscription in the streets has become the norm. What’s the difference between this and a mine where no one is mining, and machines are idling?
The biggest trap is the 'debt trap.' Initially entering with Western 'leverage assistance,' the national debt skyrocketed from over 20 billion to 230 billion USD, and all the 'basic mining machines' in agriculture and industry were smashed. The mining rights for rare earths, a 'rare token,' were directly exchanged by the US using 'aid chips.' Now, not only is the principal gone, but there's also a 'debt contract' that generations will struggle to repay. Zelensky has transformed from an 'anti-single hero' to a 'main dish' that can be cut at any time on someone else's menu. He was rejected from entering NATO, and even the qualification to discuss peace has been directly 'controlled' by the US and Russia. This operation is indeed being cut down.
Looking at Russia's recent 'reverse opening,' it seems to have made a profit but is actually also 'burning margin.' The land has been genuinely 'secured and accounted for'; Crimea is completely stabilized, and four regions in Eastern Ukraine have been incorporated into Russia, with 120,000 square kilometers of land and key resources in hand. This is equivalent to buying a large amount of 'high-quality assets' at the bottom during a bear market; just this point is already more cost-effective than Ukraine.
Economically, they played a 'desperate rebound.' Although Western sanctions are severe, they quickly turned to establish a 'military-industrial internal cycle.' The 'core currency' of energy has directly shifted to the Asian market, and GDP has surprisingly seen slight growth. This operation is as clever as opening new trading channels immediately after being limited in the exchange. However, the internal injuries are also significant—military expenditure occupies 40% of the budget, equivalent to throwing four-tenths of the 'principal' into contracts. High-end industries are being choked by technological blockades, just like a mining machine missing a core chip, which will definitely limit long-term development.
Geopolitically, it has indeed 'successfully switched warehouses.' After tearing apart relations with the West, it has directly embraced these 'new users' in the Global South and trades with countries like China and India using RMB for settlement, which is equivalent to abandoning the US dollar as the 'main settlement currency.' Instead, it has broadened its 'trading circle.' This arrangement is much smarter than clinging to old channels. Domestically, taking advantage of the wartime state to 'clean up oligarchs' and 'control public opinion,' although the public's tolerance is high, the pressure for conscription and inflation risks are accumulating. It's like a mine that can operate temporarily, but electricity and labor costs are rising, and it could 'lose power and stop' at any time.
To put it bluntly, this 'protracted war' is a typical 'mutual loss game.' Ukraine is clearly losing, losing all its 'core assets' like territorial sovereignty, in exchange for Western promises that are mostly 'air currency.' Russia is losing in a hidden way; it has acquired land resources but is being isolated in the long term, with a significant hole in its financial overdraft. It's like in the contract market, where both long and short sides fight to the end, and the winner is left with only residual health, while the loser directly goes bankrupt and exits.
This situation serves as a reminder for our encryption circle: don't recklessly leverage and rely on others for blood transfusions; it's solid to hold core assets in your own hands. Also, don't just focus on short-term floating profits; long-term 'cash flow' and 'ecological layout' are key. The Russia-Ukraine situation is far from over, and the subsequent resource competition and geopolitical reshuffling will definitely affect the global 'asset market.' Want to know how this situation will impact energy and precious metals, those 'related currencies'? I will analyze the K-line and the situation in depth later. We not only need to watch the market but also understand the logic outside the market to avoid being cut during the storm! Follow Brother Hao. $ETH
