Gold Market Analysis and Trading Strategy
Recently, the gold market has experienced wide fluctuations at high levels, with many investors falling into the trap of losses due to predicting corrections and chasing prices.
International Gold
On December 15, the gold price traded at 4339 USD/ounce, just 42 USD away from the historical peak of 4381 USD, in a strong oscillating pattern.
• Core Support: Doubts about Federal Reserve policies, escalating geopolitical risks, continuous central bank gold purchases, inflows into gold ETFs, coupled with increased volatility in the bond market generating safe-haven demand.
• Technical Analysis: The 4-hour chart has broken through the upper Bollinger band, the MACD red bars are expanding, and buying pressure is strong; short-term support at 4270 USD, stabilizing at 4350 USD may target the 4400 USD level.
• Key Catalyst: If this week's U.S. non-farm data shows significant strength, it could boost U.S. bond yields and the dollar, putting pressure on gold prices.
• Trading Suggestions: Go long in the 4320 range, increase positions in the 4330 range, stop loss at 4285, target 4380-4385.
Domestic Gold Varieties
Shanghai gold main contract reported at 980.28 CNY/gram (up 0.31%), Rongtong gold selling price at 977 CNY/gram, repurchase price at 974 CNY/gram, with stable quotes for accumulated gold from various banks.
• Core Drivers: Three consecutive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, central banks increasing holdings for 13 consecutive months, and rising geopolitical risks.
• Technical Analysis: Moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, London gold RSI has not reached the overbought zone, still has upward momentum; Shanghai gold resistance at 985 CNY/gram, support at 975 CNY/gram, Rongtong gold running range 972-980 CNY/gram.
• Trading Suggestions: Light positions in Shanghai gold at 978-980 CNY, stop loss at 973 CNY; increase positions in Rongtong gold if stabilizing at 980 CNY; focus on regular investment in accumulated gold, increase holdings below 965 CNY.
Trading requires the establishment of a comprehensive system for entry, exit, and risk control, abandoning mixed strategies, and precisely following trends to achieve stable profits.